by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger

July 15, 2020: Jacksonville, FL – You might not know it by looking at Aurora’s All-Star representation here at Farmer Field, home of the F-Heads, with Mike Provost, Scott Vinson, John Foster, Mike Britt, Bryant Burris and Ryan Holbrook all selected to the Sovereign League All-Star squad, but 2020 has been a difficult year. In the SL’s 4-2 win, Britt hit a game-tying solo HR in the 7^th and ‘Stork’ picked up the save, but then again, Foster and Vinson were a combined 0-6, with ‘Gypsy’ striking out twice and Provost gave up 2 H, 2 R on 2 solo HRs (to Wen and Forrest) in his 2 IP.

And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, sums up the first half of 2020 for the defending Champs. Peaks and Valleys; Ups and Downs.

After losing 2 of 3 at Reno to enter the All-Star Break – thank you ineffective bullpen (and more on that later), Aurora finds themselves mired at a miserable (for them) 47-42 mark and in 5^th place, 8 games behind the Yumans – who find themselves clinging to a lead forged by a 40-10 start that has nearly been erased by a 15-24 mark thus far this summer. The Borealis are on pace to finish with their worst record in the 14-year history of the PEBA and, with attendance down thus far – over 20%, their worst attendance mark since 2008 is on the horizon.

Despite the seeming despair that lingers along The Front Range, hope remains eternal within the organization. “There’s still a lot of baseball to be played,” owner Michael Topham said while addressing some media types during batting practice prior to the All-Star game, “We have the horses and most are playing below their potential – especially on the mound! One good streak and we are right back in the thick of things.”

With virtually the same squad that swept Connecticut away last October, he just might be right. Despite the 8 game deficit, Aurora is bunched tightly with Reno, Bakersfield, Palm Springs and the surprising Kalamazoo Badgers for the two wild card spots – sitting only 2 games out with 73 left to play, 21 of which are with those teams (3 with Reno, 6 with the Bears, 9 with the Codgers and 3 at home v. K-Zoo – whom Aurora are a shocking 3-6 against thus far). Plus, Aurora still have 11 games v. Yuma, 7 of which are in the Arizona desert and 7 of which are in September.

To borrow an analogy from another sport – moving day is still on the horizon.

So how does Aurora find themselves in this spot – a position not unlike the 2017-18 seasons when they finished 3^rd both years – making the playoffs one and missing in the other (for the first time, in 2017, in 9 seasons). Lets take a position-by-position look and grade things thus far.

Catcher: During the bulk of Aurora’s playoff run in 2019, Vinson was invisible, but down the stretch he was clutch, finishing with 18 HR while hitting a barely acceptable .241. Thus far, 2020 has been a renaissance for Scott. Although the stat line may suggest his power numbers are down (only 6 HR, but a better .429 SLG), he has more doubles already and is hitting a strong .283 – his best since his first full season as a starter (in 2017, as DH with Bob Keller catching). With strikeouts down and walks up, Vinson’s OPS is nearly 90 points higher than last year and his best since he’s been on the 25-man roster full time (in 2015 – a crazy 1.019 in 57 games). He’s also thrown out 38% of would be base stealers (4^th best in the SL). Clearly Aurora’s problems haven’t come from behind the plate, and Vinson’s All-Star selection (a landslide vote as well) has vindicated Aurora’s 2021 contract extension he signed in January. GRADE: A

First Base: Perhaps nowhere on the diamond has Aurora struggled more than getting quality offense from the first sacker. When José Rivera went down with a torn Latissimus muscle in early May, there was some concern about how it would effect the team – but not as much as we find today, as at the time Rivera was hitting a paltry .198. Suddenly Mike Britt was moved back to 3B, and a collection of bodies have tried to be the ‘Who’s On’ first, but none have provided the spark. Miguel Salinas? The solid defender, moved from his DH role, but has managed only .226 thus far with only 10-2B, 4 HR and 26 RBI (down greatly from his .303, 35-2B, 15 HR and 61 RBI in 2019) – that has his SLG down nearly 200 points! Plus he’s already struck out as many times in 79 games as he did in his 121 last year. Salinas started slowly in 2019, but caught fire as the High Country began to defrost. Aurora has waited and waited, but to no avail and now Miguel finds himself relegated to the bench and management concerned about the $26.4M extension they signed him to during the offseason. Last season’s big surprise, Richie Norman, was then given a shot, but after 12 games and a .135 average he was sent back to Thornton. That left Aurora with rookie Josh Ligonier. So far, Ligonier has not been bad – .251, and he has flashed some of the power (14-2B, 9 HR) that he showed at AAA last year when he had 30-2B and 27 HR.  With Rivera basically out for the season, for now the position seems to be Ligonier’s to lose – or Salinas’s to win in the limited chances he looks to get at the moment. That streak Topham was talking about? That happening may eventually center around what kind of offense the team gets from first base. GRADE: D+

Second Base: Aurora has been waiting for this. Since 2017, when ‘Gypsy’ John Foster was given the second base job as Stevie McDonald was jettisoned to Omaha. Sure, he’s shown some power – a career SLG of .431 ain’t too bad, but it hasn’t been until now that he’s shown some consistency at the plate. Selected to his second All-Star game – and this one unquestionably deserved, Foster finds himself hitting .280 and on pace to having the best season in his career. And Aurora needs it to continue. With 17 HR already, he looks to top last year’s career best 19 and with 49 RBI he’s likely to top the 65 he had in 2017. With strikeouts down, and only 3 errors at second base, Foster has been amongst the list of players who could be named this years MVP. GRADE: A-

Third Base: Mike Britt was also named to his second All-Star team and thus far has been on pace to post numbers that reflect his career averages. He’s hit .265 thus far and with 18 HRs he leads the team – as does his 57 RBI. With career bests of 28 and 85, respectively, in those two categories, Britt looks to be able to match each of those – or at least get close. Like Foster, Britt is experiencing a period of better contact, with strikeouts down from 2019, so one can only hope that’ll translate into better numbers down the stretch. Aurora has waited a long time for this pair – long thought to be the foundation of the offense, to explode. Now would be a good time. GRADE: B

Shortstop: No one was a bigger surprise in 2019 than Nick Giles. Supplanting Rivera at SS, Giles hit .325 with 35-2B, 16 HR and 67 RBI and was a major reason behind Aurora’s title. 2020 has been a struggle for Giles, as he’s struggled to adjust to how pitchers are approaching his at-bats. His average (.276) is down 50 points. His SLG (.381) is down nearly 200 points, and he’s seen fair more strike 3’s than he did all of last year (in somewhat fewer AB’s). Despite it all, Aurora has kept him out there (he’s started 86 of 89 games), and he’s done the job defensively at SS. The loss of punch from Giles has certainly contributed to Aurora’s 2020 decline, but a slight uptick here could make a huge difference. GRADE: C

Outfield: Perhaps no spot on the team has performed (this year) to their draft expectations than the outfield, where currently three first round selections reside. High expectations were cast upon outfielders Matt Ferrell and River Pope when they were selected in the first round of the 2016 draft. Ditto Mike Hale in 2017. Ferrell has followed his successful first year (2019) as a starter with an equally good 2020. His .318 leads the team and is second in the SL (behind Canton’s Peyton Bishop). His 10 HR are a career best, as are his 51 RBI. He may be on pace to strikeout 100 times, and he’s not a big OBP guy, but should he continue to drive the ball when making contact and bring home the runs, Aurora will be happy with what they have. Pope, who’s .309 average has him 5^th in the SL, has been equally stellar – at the plate and the field, where he’s been flawless. More of a contact guy than his partner Ferrell (only 7 K in 285 AB), Pope has a career high 24-2B thus far and hit his first career HR. Pope is currently hitting leadoff, where Aurora hopes his ability to make contact and get on base will equal more runs. The third first rounder in the outfield, Mike Hale, continues to show he’s learning on the job. His average is spot on to last year – .265, but his SLG is down, even though he has a career high 4 HR. Strikeouts are down, walks are up and with 23 SB, is one shy of last years total. Aurora’s ‘future lead-off guy’ may not be ‘quite ready for prime-time’, but he’s contributing both at the plate, on the bases, and in the field and though he’s been moved to the 9^th spot in the line-up, that has been his best spot, average-wise. GRADE: A-

Designated Hitter: A number of players have manned this spot, some regularly, some as bench players getting some ABs, most with a modicum of success. Miguel Salinas, as mentioned above, has struggled. Juan Toro, splitting time around the diamond, has hit only .245. Kane Talley, who lost his spot in the outfield after a promising 2019, is only hitting his weight, at .204. Finally Aurora turned to the organizations sky-rocketing Pedro Ferringo, a supplemental pick in the 2019 draft and after hitting .377 at Thornton in 68 games, has been trust into the starting DH role and after a tough few games has hit – .298, and hit with some power – .474, with 5-2B, a 3B and a HR, over 15 games. Beginners Luck, or just a continuation of a trend? Only time will tell, as Ferringo’s .327 over the final 37 games at Gatineau in 2019 is the lowest average of his overall career. GRADE: D+, but climbing

One may argue that if Britt can get his average up to .280, as Foster and Vinson have, and those three stay at that level, with the numbers the outfield have posted, this team may put up enough runs to make up for the season’s real weakness – giving up runs. As Aurora’s Boy Wonder GM, Will Topham, succinctly stated at the Media Day festivities, “I’m not too worried about the offense – especially if we get a little more offense out of first and DH. What bothers me is the effort we are getting on the mound from the group that essentially won the title for us in 2019.” And he may just be right. For a team with the 4^th best team batting average and being significantly outscored by only two teams (Reno and K-Zoo), this is a team that might only be a single hit a game away from a much different record.

What’s really keeping Aurora back is what Topham eluded to: poor pitching from a group that has been historically good.

Starting Pitching: Well, you certainly can’t point a finger of blame in Michel Provost’s direction. Sure, he’s walked 9 batters this year, but the crazy, unrealistic numbers he put up last year in his Golden Arm campaign are just that – unrealistic. Nothing wrong with his 2.28 ERA and .216 OAVG and 11-3 record. Aurora manager Don James, having to account for the fact that Provost threw in the All-Star game, has positioned him in such a way that he’ll get as many key match-ups as possible. If Aurora is battling come the end of the season, expect him to get an extra start against the Bears in the closing series. Anastasio López deserves no doubters, either, as he’s repaid Aurora’s faith and contract extension with a very solid 3.17 and a team high 129 K. Even rookie Arturo ‘Massacre’ Jiménez has pitched towards expectation. Despite a 6-7 record, he has a 3.51 ERA with teams hitting .202 against him. His 66 BB may be third in all of the PEBA (behind team mate Junior Cook – and that right there speaks to part of the problem), but his 111 K are 7^th best in the SL. His season has been very similar to Cook’s, who has suffered from a sophomore slump with the best of them. Walks up. OAVG and OSLG up. WHIP up. The end result is his ERA is up 2 full runs and his 6 loses are more than all last year in 9 fewer starts. Also suffering from a huge let down was Christian Murdoch, who was throwing so poorly he was demoted to AAA (where he’s pitched moderately better). Perhaps luck caught up with Murdoch, who knows, but an 8.08 ERA doesn’t cut it. Walks up, Ks down, HR significantly up. Aurora lost his first 5 starts and 7 of the 10 (and he gave up 5 runs in 2 of those wins). Has there been a time a team missed an injured pitcher as Aurora has this year with Martín Francisco out? Injured in last year’s playoffs, ‘Sawmill’ threw one inning before re-injuring himself and is out until September. Michael Ladner has come up from AAA and provided some stability in his two starts – 14 IP, 6 R, but his 1.43 WHIP is disturbing for a team that has historically been good about walks, but this year has the 3^rd most in the SL. GRADE: C-

Bullpen: Fortunately, mostly so, Aurora has Bryant Burris (2.18, 21 saves) and Ryan Holbrook (1.77, 15 H), despite the 6 BS between them (2 for Burris). Add in Nolan ‘Sleepy’ Kuhn, who is on pace to have his best season as the second half of Aurora’s unorthodox double lefty set-up men, and the three are the only shining lights in what has been an otherwise unmitigated disaster. They alone are responsible for Aurora’s ‘pen having the 4^th best ERA in the SL (4.13). Arnaud Thompson (5.36 ERA, 1.47 WHIP), Juan Martínez (4.98, 1.46), Félix Peña (4.98, 1.49) and Jon Dykes (6.51, 1.95) have all given up their fair shares of leads – Martínez and Thompson have 7 BS between them, which is indicative of their 5-5 extra inning record and 14-15 record in 1-run games. Thompson has allowed 50% of inherited runners to score, equaling 15 R – while giving up 18 of his own! This group has been flat-out bad. Is there help in the minors? Maybe. Jimmy Younger has shown potential at AAA, but his couple of stints at Aurora have not been awe inspiring. John Gray and Manuel Galloca look to have potential, but have yet to been called upon. GRADE: D-

The biggest question regarding the pitching is: will Aurora move to bring in help from outside. With a number of solid prospects floating in the minors (Joe Kenny, Jack Speed, Wilson Mercado, Gabe McIntyre, Chandler Wright, and Fedrico Olivas, to name a few), one would think Aurora would not be shy in trade discussions. As it is, this team is still in shouting distance of Yuma, and the wild card is there for the taking. That said, without improving both the rotation and the bullpen, the likelihood of this team getting there appears to be slim – no matter how many runs the offense puts up! OVERALL GRADE: C