Gary Trundleburry, Shin Seiki Post

6/20/2020: Nagoya, Japan

The Shin Seiki Evas‘ offense has been disappointing so far in 2020, no question. Average offense has dropped like a rock from 6.1 runs per game in 2019 down to a flaccid 4.3 in 2020. That is in large part due to the massive inflow of pitching talent from the contract draft. But there has been a lot of under performance too.

2B in particular has been a black hole. “Tippy” Shimizu was a 5.7 WAR player last season, he has been a -0.6 WAR player so far in 2020. Former star “Wheels” Chien hasn’t been any better, putting up pathetic .146/.259/.509 line. It seems obvious to me that a change needs to be made. Apparently the SS front office agrees.

The Evas are going to give one of the kids a shot: 3B Richard Kelly. Kelly was the centerpiece of the Evas’ first major trade with a PEBA club. That deal saw the Evas ship the hard throwing Yujiro Kondo to the Charleston Statesmen. Kondo was a very good starting arm, so Kelly was not a cheap acquisition. The plan had been to let him develop through 2020 in AAA and then bring him up for 2021. But the combination of a ML need and his dominating (.356/.495/1.051) performance in AAA prompted the move.

Kelly seems ready to hit at the ML level. He seems poised to put up a .280/.350/.800 type production with future upside in the .300/.380/.900 range. His glove is adequate at 3B, but not spectacular. He shouldn’t be a liability. He will slide in to the starting 3B slot immediately and shift Matsusuke Hamada over to 2B. Hamada has a fair amount of experience at 2B, having played there for several stints during his time with Kure. He performed pretty well defensively at 2B. If he can do that again and keep hitting like he has, he could be one of the better 2B’s in the PEBA.

This move isn’t without risk however.

• Kelly’s long term offensive development could get stunted. That would be a significant long term blow to the club who have him penciled in for 2021 and beyond.
• The new infield configuration might be a significant downgrade defensively. Giving up more runs is just as bad as not scoring enough. At least Shimizu set the bar low at 2B.
• Disrupting the routine of Hamada who has been the Evas’ most consistently productive hitter in 2020 isn’t without risk. If he were to start slumping because of the change, the Evas’ offense could be wretched.

But with the Niihama-shi Ghosts surging to 1st place recently, Shin Seiki needs to take some risks. They don’t have a 10 game division lead that would allow them to let under performing players work through their problems. Unless the Evas up their game, their streak of 10 consecutive playoff appearances and 8 consecutive SSG titles could come to a screeching halt.

That is surely not the way GM Kevin Vail intends for the history of the Evas in the LRS to end. Expect more moves if the Evas continue to under perform.