With the 2018 PEBA season now in our rearview mirror and the offseason before the 2019 season just starting, I thought it would seem fair to take a look at our old buddy FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as it relates to this past season’s ERA (Earned Run Average) leader board. What we can find when comparing the full season data of FIP and ERA for starting pitchers is outperformance or underperformance based on how far apart the numbers are from each other. One caveat to consider when we look at the list of ERA leaders is that there should be no secret that it takes some good fortune in addition to outstanding true talent. What I mean by true talent is the element of the ERA that is purely controlled by the skill of the player, not the luck or help from teammates. The pitchers that are the best in the league are the ERA leaders because of their talent, and often to a lesser degree some good luck. What we are looking for with this crop of top pitchers is to see if there are any of them that benefited from a marked amount of good luck, which may indicate that said pitcher(s) could be in for a correction with their ERA come next season. A correction being a rising of the ERA and dropping the pitcher out of the top ten next season.

The table below includes the pitcher’s ERA, FIP, and ERA-FIP, which gives us an idea of the level of difference between the two numbers and indicative of more luck being at play in the resulting ERA. A word about the FIP numbers, the “constant number” used to help make the FIP sit on the same scale as ERA was about 3.16. This may be different than other FIP estimates that use a tradition 3.20 constant. The 3.16 number should be more accurate and reflective of the 2018 run environment as it was created by subtracting the PEBA ERA average by the FIP equation (without applying the addition of the constant of course) using the league’s home-run, walk, strikeout, and innings pitched totals. One other caveat is that due to the lack of batters hit-by-pitch data provided through the Statslab data base, I was unable to include that data in this research. There is a good possibility that that data would have led to an increase in the FIP results for pitchers, though not at a marked proportion.

I made a point to mark in bold those FIP scores that are at .50 (+/-) variant or more from the pitcher’s ERA. There are just a few that showed up at that cut-off point, and in general I will say that there are no clear luck bandits in this group which bodes well for the chances that they all will perform at the very least league average and likely in the running to be in the top 25 pitchers in PEBA.

We have an almost perfect juxtaposition between Alfredo Velázquez of Crystal Lake, and Gunner MacGruder of Yuma who are numbers three and four on the list above respectively. Velázquez had the largest disparity between his ERA and FIP on the list of top ten ERA pitchers at a -.66, while MacGruder had an almost perfect match of his ERA and FIP with only a -.01 difference between the two numbers. What you can gleam from this is that although Velázquez finished slightly ahead of MacGruder with regards to ERA at 2.52 vs. MacGruder’s 2.53 ERA, MacGruder was probably the better pitcher of the two and a better bet to be on this list next season than Velázquez would be. FIP predicts Velázquez should have had an ERA above 3 as opposed to the near 2.50 ERA he did have.

Here’s a peculiar thing, the next largest ERA-FIP disparity is owned by another Crystal Lake pitcher, Francisco Robles, with -.64. This may be a fluky result, but it may also be a hint at a common factor that may be helping the Crystal Lake staff. This could be the size of the Crystal Lake ballpark, or the quality of the Crystal Lake defense that may be helping to turn potential hits into outs at a better rate than other teams. It will be interesting to see if Robles and Velázquez have regression towards their FIPs next season or if they see another surprising large difference between their ERA and FIP numbers.

Yuma looks to have two bonafide aces on their team, with both MacGruder and Adrian Peterson as legitimate front end arms. Peterson is right there with perennial all-star and future hall of famer Markus Hancock as being one of the top two arms in the game. Additionally both MacGruder and Peterson are only 24 years old with many strong years ahead of them.

-Steve Youngblood
Fargo Gazette