Winter Meetings Roundup (part two of three)

by Sir John Stirling, USA Today

Monday, December 29, 2008

(Ed. Note: Part one of this series can be viewed here.)

Trade #10: Crystal Lake–Reno … A swap of minor league relievers saw Reno getting William “Soda” Patterson in exchange for Joe Baker.  It wasn’t the most exciting trade of all time.

Analysis: Soda is a 28-year-old journeyman reliever.  He could help Reno this year.  A lefty, his services will always be in demand.  The question is whether he can translate minor league success into major league success.  To find out, Reno parted with highly-rated middle relief prospect Joe Baker.  Baker is a bit old for his level thus far but could really turn into quite a… middle reliever.

Edge: Reno.  Middle relievers are a dime a dozen.  Might as well take a chance on the one that is closer to the majors.

Trade #11: Crystal Lake–Yuma … Yuma continued adding middle relief with this trade.  Markus Shepherd and Santiago Carmona went to Yuma in exchange for low-level prospects Andy Hood and Brad Howell.

Analysis: Shepherd is young (26) and cheap (under $3 million a year).  Carmona is old and has yet to do much other pitch well at AAA.  Andy Hood is nothing really, but Brad Howell… well, Brad Howell is something special.  Howell brings speed, good contact ability and very little plate discipline.  It’s an interesting trade but this impartial observer cannot figure out why a rebuilding team like Yuma would trade a prospect for a reliever.  This seems like a deadline trade, only in reverse.

Edge: Crystal Lake.  Color me confused on this one.

Trade #12: Canton–Reno … Super-sub Geoffrey Porter hits his third team in three seasons, moving from Canton to Reno.  Coming the other way is Geoff Green, who on his way into town may see Cantonians celebrating the departure of Luis Navarro.

Analysis: Reno was over the barrel, desperately needing a catching option and Canton was waiting with Luis Navarro.  Navarro is rated (and paid) highly and performs poorly.  Loathed in Canton, he will get another shot to achieve his potential in Reno.  Porter can play any position and play it well.  The times he does get on base, he is a legitimate threat to steal.  Geoff Green will arrive in Canton to compete with David Koch for the second base position.  Whoever wins it is sure to boot the ball all about the infield.

Edge: Canton.  Unloading Navarro’s contract is a step toward solvency for the Longshoremen and the Green/Porter swap also leans in their favor.

Trade #13: Duluth–Arlington … Salary dump.  The mashing Andrés López goes to Arlington in exchange for Larry Hoskins and AAA pitcher Minoru Kudo.  A fourth round pick will make the flight east with López, no doubt to keep him warm on that tarmac in Minnesota.

Analysis: López would add a lot to any outfield, and Arlington is no exception.  López, however, is not cheap.  $13 million will bring you a nice VORP of 43.7, but it also costs you $13 million.  Replacing Jesús Suárez may be worth just that much, especially given Arlington only missed the playoffs by three games last year.  Hoskins didn’t really contribute that much but should help Duluth at least seem palatable to their fans.  Kudo could really turn into something special and is by no means just a throw-in.

Edge: Arlington.  A great salary dump for Duluth, actually it’s beyond great.  Salary dumping just doesn’t compare to acquiring an elite outfielder that could put you in the playoffs.

Trade #14: Duluth–Palm Springs … The train out of Duluth, a beautiful town in Minnesota, stops long enough to snag closer Juan Santos and a couple of draft picks (5^th and 10^th round).  Coming back into Duluth are the usual prospects, this time in the form of outfielders Brandon Collins and Loren Georges.  They bring with them a second rounder and a sense of hope.   

Analysis: Palm Springs won 93 games last year and also managed to finish 19 games out of first place in the Desert Hills division.  The bullpen has been the focus of a lot of the effort to push the Codgers over the top and Santos certainly will help there.  He’s not ridiculously good but he isn’t at all bad and he isn’t very expensive ($4 million).  He also isn’t 19 games.  Collins and Georges both project well and extra picks never hurt a rebuilding team.

Edge: More money leaves Duluth as more young talent comes in.  Santos doesn’t push PS over the top.  Duluth wins here.

Trade #15: San Antonio–Tempe … This one is a total head-scratcher.  Tempe trades Bill Taylor and Bob Keller (A-ball catcher) for Gary Fisher and Terry Thornton.  Rumors abounded in the Winter Meetings about Taylor, and offers involving António Rivera and Geoffrey Porter seemed destined to lead somewhere.  Tempe then seemed to hesitate before, at the last minute, making this trade.

Analysis: In Bill Taylor, San Antonio got a highly rated, young, well performing, cheap (league minimum) starting pitcher at the price of a “prospect” (Thornton) who had an OBP under .300 at the age of 22 at A-ball last year.  Tempe also took on the $2 million salary of Gary Fisher, who was “just a pawn” according to Calzones management.  As if that weren’t bad enough, Tempe traded away Bob Keller, a catching prospect that scouts seem to love.  This was easily the biggest fleecing of the winter meetings, and quite probably in PEBA history.

Edge: San Antonio.

Trade #16: Reno–West Virginia … The Winter Meetings ended with the trade of a player with a fractured skull for one of the most perplexing outfielders in PEBA.  Outfielder Jeff Patterson accompanied a third round pick to the coal country while SP Ralph Dean and CF Jack Campbell head for the biggest little city in the world.

Analysis: $15 million contract?  Check.  Power, speed and a great eye?  Check.  Fractured skull?  Also check.  Jeff Patterson is the real deal when healthy.  The thing is, Patterson’s head split open last year.  That would be a bit of a health issue for West Virginia’s new slugger.  Ralph Dean and Jack Campbell offset all but five million dollars of the salary for West Virginia and fill holes for Reno.  If Campbell hits like he did in 2007 (VORP of 32.2), Reno is ok on this deal.  If he hits like he did in 2008 (VORP of -11.2), Reno got shafted in a big way.

Edge: West Virginia, assuming Humpty Dumpty’s head is ok.  This trade could be franchise-defining.

Still to come in this series are the final grades for each team, as well as a breakdown of the Yoshino Miyata trade sequence.