TransmitterTalk.com
Wednesday, October 30, 2013

So long, 2013.  Good riddance.

That’s what pretty much every person on the face of the earth who has any stake in the Kawaguchi Transmitters has to say about that.  The team struggled to an embarrassing 42-win season, a historical low for the franchise.  At least they secured the first pick of the draft.  Yee-haw.

On the other hand, a pretty fair argument can be made that the team had several intriguing players to watch last year – most of them at the minor league level, and many stepping up after the management change-over.  For example, our AAA Taito Invaders finished the season at 45-75, which doesn’t look so good – but they were 12-31 (.279) when Ron Collins took over the reins and went 33-44 (.429) over the rest of the season, all while dropping the average age of the team to respectable levels.  Likewise, A-Yamato led their division for most of the year and went to the post-season with a young team (despite an admittedly ugly 45-51 record).

So things are not all doom and gloom.  With that, it’s time for us to post our ratings of the top players in the Transmitters system.

#1

Shinji Watanabe – P – 6’0″, 220 lb. – Age 22 (AAA: 0-3, 2 SV, 2.70 ERA, 30 IP, 3.2 K/BB)

Watanabe was a surprise first round pick by the new Transmitters regime, but he quickly showed his worth by recording a 2.70 ERA and striking out 38 hitters in 30 innings at AAA-Taito.  The kid throws 99 MPH and has a sinker that falls off a cliff.  Despite the Kawaguchi organization being panned at the time of the selection, Watanabe became the first member of the 2013 draft class to make an appearance in the LRS.  He’s clearly not ready to make Kawaguchi his permanent home just yet – he can struggle to find the plate consistently and LRS hitters are not as compromising as those at the AAA level are.  But the team sees the obvious value in him and is willing to give him time.

Projection: The Transmitter front brass won’t have to wait long.  Watanabe will likely see another late season call-up in 2014 and arrive for good in 2015.

#2

Kisho Suzuki – SS – 6’0″, 200 lb. – Age: 21 (A: .251/.348/.381)

With Kawaguchi aching for help in the middle infield, Suzuki spent this year working to make a tough transition from third base to shortstop.  He’s got all the tools for the role – sweet range, a cannon arm and the ability to turn two – but he was clearly raw at short and at 21, it’s a tough conversion.  He committed 18 errors in 80 games, but most of those errors were in the first half of the season.  By year’s end, Suzuki was beginning to show some comfort in the field and, not surprisingly, his bat started to come alive.  This is important because if he can field, the young man’s bat will be a solid presence.  His OPS progression by month this year (.625, .694, .603, .894, .753) is that of a kid who’s getting it.  A 104 OPS+ in his age-20 season is an intriguing indicator of things to come.  About the only real knock on Suzuki is his lack of speed on the base paths.

Projection: Suzuki will likely start next season in single-A Yamato to ensure he gets more time to work on the glove, but he should finish the season in AAA-Taito and be ready for the LRS sometime in 2015.

#3

Kazunari Oka – P – 6’0″, 220 lb. – Age: 21 (AAA: 4-1, 3.09 ERA, 68K, 55.1 IP)

Oka is the whole package.  That’s what the scouts say.  He’s got the fastball, slider, change-up repertoire to which he adds the occasional sinker, and at 93 MPH, they all look pretty solid.  At this point, the only thing holding him out of LRS play is that he can go on wildness binges.  As with many Kawaguchi pitchers, the previous regime misused Oka early in 2013 by matching him against LRS hitters right away.  Oka responded with 42 walks in 63 innings.  A late-season call-up didn’t see him fare much better (though his K-rate did grow nicely in that small sample size).  The team is apparently debating the value of sending him to Winter Ball to work on his control.

Projection: Team insiders say scouts were buzzing at the end of the year about improvements in Oka’s fastball and slider.  Fans may see him get some LRS time in 2014, but expect Oka to be a #2 or #3 starter in the Transmitters organization by 2015.

#4

Tadaaki Suzuki – 1B – 6’0″, 212 lb. – Age: 24 (AAA: 16 HR, 65 RBI)

It’s sometimes hard to remember that just two seasons ago, Tadaaki Suzuki was considered a top-20 prospect in the LRS.  After falling off the charts in 2012, Suzuki had a bit of a rebirth this year, flashing solid power from the left side of the plate with 16 homers in 454 AB.  Coaches would like to see his patience improve and his glove work is inconsistent at best, but the fireplug from Tokyo raised eyebrows again and team insiders are suggesting that he could still be a difference-maker.  At 24, his time is drawing a little short, but Suzuki was an 8^th round draft pick and has become used to being counted out.  It’s worth noting that 2013 was Suzuki’s first season as a fulltime player (119 games), so perhaps he’ll be a true late bloomer.

Projection: Suzuki will probably see time with the parent club in 2014 – especially if Kuemon Kiyomizu has another difficult season.

#5

Kazuyoshi Higashi – 1B – 6’1″, 205 lb. – Age: 22 (A: 13 HR, 52 RBI, .274/.345/.799)

While still at Hosei University, Higashi wowed scouts with the occasional display of audacious power.  After being selected by Kawaguchi in the second round of the 2012 draft, however, the wheels fell off.  He posted a .566 OPS in his first year as a professional.  It should be noted that this came as the team tried unsuccessfully to convert him to second base (25 errors in 91 games).  2013 saw him back at first base, where he was league average with the glove.  He bounced back at the plate with a sterling season that has Transmitter scouts buzzing.  Rumors are that he was a target for trade talks by other teams around the league this year but that the Transmitter front office valued him at a level the others thought was perhaps ridiculous.  But the team needs power from the right side and is expecting Higashi can provide it.

Projection: Look for him to spend a season at AAA-Taito, with maybe a late-season call-up.  He’ll challenge LHB Tadaaki Suzuki for the first base role in 2015.

#6

Shintaro Rin – OF – 6’3″, 220 lb. – Age: 21 (A: .312/.393/.461)

Sometimes a kid slips into an organization as an unknown, flounders around for years and then just disappears.  Shintaro Rin appeared to be one of those guys, coming to Kawaguchi as a 9^th round selection out of high school in 2011 and posting uninspiring lines for two seasons.  This year, he exploded for a .854 OPS, 27.2 VORP kind of season that has the team reevaluating their plans for the corner outfield.  Rin is not particularly pleasant to watch on the base paths and he still needs a lot of work on his glove in left field.  But at 21, he’s got time to show what else he’s got, and with the team loaded up on corner outfielders, the Transmitters can afford to wait.  This is the kind of pleasant surprise the team can live with.

Projection: We think Rin will probably start 2014 back at A-Yamato and finish at AAA-Taito.  From there, we’ll just have to see.

#7

Orinosuke Kato – OF – 6’1″ 180 lb. – Age: 21 (AAA: .300/.372/.393)

Kato was drafted straight from high school as a first rounder back in 2010 and spent a season at A-ball, where he registered an atrocious .156 average in 192 at bats.  That was apparently good enough for Transmitters management, who promptly promoted him to AAA as a 19-year-old, where he stank.  The team did nothing to save him and he showed little to warrant much attention for two seasons – until 2013, when he finally threw down some reasonable numbers at the plate and held his own in the field.  He then went to A-ball to get in some additional work, where he absolutely dominated (.370/.436/.500).  Interesting prospect.  Probably a little low on power to play every day, but he could surprise.

Projection: We would love to have seen Kato playing A-Ball until this year.  Look for Kato to start at AAA.  At 21, you might see him sticking around there for another season or two.

#8

Keitaro Sato – SS – 6’2″, 185 lb. – Age: 21 (A: .383/.412/.417)

Sato is probably the best defensive shortstop in the Transmitters organization, which makes him imminently interesting.  At mid-season, rumors were buzzing that the club was considering jumping Sato from A-Yamato to go directly to the LRS, merely to plug the hole they had in the field.  Luckily, saner heads prevailed.  His bat was outstanding at A-Yamato and he was adequate at AAA (.289/.319/.325).  The team moved him to second base for some time, most likely because of their plans to use Keitaro Suzuki at short in the long term.

Projection: The team clearly wants him to learn second base and the middle infield is pretty well populated at A-Yamato, so he’ll probably split time with Jung-ha Mun at AAA.  If the Transmitters can’t fix their shortstop situation through other means in 2014, don’t be too surprised if they rush him up.

#9

Shun’ichi Onodera – OF – 6’2″, 220 lb. – Age: 22 – (A: 7 HR 113 AB .265/.341/.504)

Onodera came to the organization mid-season as part of the Narita trade and immediately became one of Kawaguchi’s more intriguing prospects.  He’s another corner outfielder with limited speed, but Onodera has shown flashes of power and was listed amongst BA-Japan’s top 100 prospects as late as May of this year.  Then he broke his thumb.  While the medical staff was comfortable enough with him to okay his acquisition, he struggled against AAA pitching in a stint at that level.  Finished the year at A-Yamato, where he hit in nine of his last ten games and collected three homers.  Definitely a guy to watch.

Projection: Onodera will be 23 next year and the team would like to see him play well at AAA.  He should arrive at Kawaguchi sometime between 2015-1026.

#10

Kazuma Yamada – 1B/2B/DH – 6’1″ 200 lbs. – Age 21 – (A: .333/.421/.451, .383 wOBA)

Picked out of high school in the 10^th round of the 2010 draft, Yamada languished in the organization for two years until seeing extended time this year.  He responded with a monster season at the plate while being shuffled between several positions.  This is good for Yamada because the Transmitters’ 1B lane is clogged by Suzuki and Higashi, and he’ll need to find a place to play.  Yamada has limited power potential but exhibited a keen understanding of the strike zone and could eventually draw 80-100 walks in a season.

Projection: After two years of AAA work, you’ll probably see Yamada in Transmitter gold by late 2015.

#11

Okura Matsuura – P – 6’9″, 215 lb. – Age: 20 – (A: 4-0, 2 SV, 3.00 ERA, 45 IP, 52 K, 4.3 K/BB)

Matsuura is another example of the previous regime rushing pitchers to the big leagues.  At 19, he was blistered for a 9.00 ERA in 19 LRS innings before being sent to A-ball and settling in to become one of the better pitchers on Yamato’s staff.  There’s a lot to like about the kid.  He’s got two solid LRS-level pitches and a great organizational mindset that includes being well liked in the clubhouse.

Projection: Matsuura will probably throw another year at Yamato, then a year or two at AAA.  So let’s say he’s a Transmitter by 2016.