The Most Valuable PEBA Players – 2017 Edition
This edition of “The Most Valuable PEBA Players” is the fourth annual installment. This year’s rankings should garner some particularly interesting discussion as there were a number of breakout seasons in 2016 that flew players up the charts. Whether or not those players will drop as precipitously as they rose is a different matter, but we’ve been a little kinder to breakout players than we were in past seasons. As always, injuries again play a significant role in where certain players rank. In some cases, it’s because a player is healthy again after some time off.
For a lengthier description of the methodology, reread the original listing, but the short of it is this: More often than not, a higher ranked player would not be traded 1-for-1 for a lower ranked player. Each player’s ability, contract, and age are taken into account, but actual performance at the PEBA level is weighed the most. Due to some of the tremendous breakout seasons that occurred last year, we’ve been a little more flexible with including players who were great for just one season. Each of the top 25 players have been ranked and commented upon. The remainder of the top 50 will also be presented, albeit with a little less information. The age listed for each player is their age for the upcoming season (age on July 1st). Previous rankings are listed in order starting with most recent (e.g. Prev: 2016 rank, 2015 rank, and so on).
The List
25. SP Félix Ortega (ARL) – 27 – Ortega set a new personal best with 17 wins in 2016. It was his 4th straight year of 200+ IP with fewer than 30 BB’s. His ERA was up slightly to 3.35 as he was an All-Star for the 3rd straight season. He’s a very solid pitcher that can be relied upon, but it now seems that he won’t reach the top tier of elite aces but merely perform as an ace. That’s not a bad thing, and Arlington has locked him up for four more years at a very reasonable rate. (DOWN – Prev: 9, 16, 17)
24. 1B Decheng Wen (LON) – 29 – Wen followed up a remarkably productive season in 2015 with one that was almost as good, trading a little bit of average for more home run power. He’s Rob Raines Lite, but with speed. He struggled with injuries in the minors, but hasn’t had a recurrence of those issues for the past three seasons. He also signed a team-friendly extension that will keep him in London for the next four years. (UP – Prev: Top 50)
23. SP Alfredo Velázquez (CL) – 28 – The Fishermen traded Velázquez for a bunch of prospects and now the Sandgnats will have to determine if they think he’s worth a contract extension. The Puerto Rican broke out in 2016 with an IL leading 19 wins. He struck out 190 in 228 IP while posting a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The trade was a huge deal for both teams, as the Fishermen are gambling a bit of the present in return for a better future while the Sandgnats are in full win now mode, trying to restore a pitching staff that has been showing some cracks of late. (UP – Prev: NR)
22. CF Ieyoshi Ishikawa (NJ) – 27 – The Hitmen are loaded with talented young hitters leading to all sorts of ridiculously punny team posters. Given his tremendous 2016, Ishikawa features prominently on them. He hit .334 while leading the IL with 111 runs scored in his sophomore season. Another season like that will rocket him up this list, but he may not even be the best hitter on the team. (UP – Prev: NR)
21. LF Cory Pierce (AUR) – 31 – Pierce was healthier than he’s ever been, but he didn’t hit as well. He displayed a drop off in power and discipline resulting in a season that was quite a letdown when compared to his two Royal Raker years. The Borealis signed him to a reasonable 2 year extension worth $10 million annually, and that seems like a good midpoint between his hitting potential and his potential for injury. (DOWN – Prev: 13, 6, 9)
20. 3B Alfredo Vega (BAK) – 30 – Vega’s a constant worry for the Bakersfield front office, but he managed to be mostly healthy last season. He wound up playing in a career high 143 games and making the All-Star team for the first time. He spent more time at third base than shortstop. A well rounded player, he hit 15 home runs, stole 20 bases, and posted a .399 OBP. (UP – Prev: Top 50)
19. LF Chris Allen (FAR) – 31 – Allen finally played a full season, and wound up leading the SL with a .330 average while making his second trip to the All-Star game. If there is cause for concern with him, it comes from the fact that his power was down significantly. His 18 home runs were the first time he’s hit fewer than 20 in a season and a rather large drop from his 2015 total of 31. His walk rate was also down slightly but the big question is how often he’ll suit up. (UP – Prev: Top 50, Top 50, Top 50)
18. SP Armando Gallegos (FAR) – 33 – Gallegos returned to the mound with regularity in 2016 and the injuries of 2015 were clearly behind him. He led the SL with 233 IP, was an All-Star, and won the All-Leather award. He went 19-9 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 201 K’s. All of those numbers were right in line with his career averages. Injury, defeated. He’s now in the final year of what may be the most team friendly contract the PEBA has seen, making just $4.4 million this year. By the time it’s over, he’ll have made $21.2 million over 5 years. Several players have made that much in a single season and not provided near what Gallegos has. (DOWN – Prev: 12, 5, 7)
17. 1B William Peterson (FLA) – 29 – Peters
on ranks second in career hits since his debut in 2010. Desite 199 hits and a career high 38 home runs in 2016, he didn’t make the All-Star team. He signed as a free agent with the Featherheads for what should end up looking like a very reasonable deal down the road. Given that he already has 7 full seasons under his belt, it’s hard to believe he’s turning just 29 this year. (UP – Prev: Top 50)
16. DH Carlos Guerera (BAK) – 31 – Guerera isn’t inexpensive for the Bears, but he’s been a tremendous hitter for them. He’s a high average hitter who knows how to work the count, and finally got some notice with a 3rd place finish in the SL Royal Raker voting. He’s in his final contract year with the Bears, and will be one to watch for contract extension news. The Bears have the money to keep him, but he could end up in the free agent pool next winter. (UP – Prev: 15, Top 50, Top 50)
15. 3B Corbin Hickman (FLA) – 28 – Hickman had a blazing start to the 2016 season that had people wondering if he’d be able to hit .400. His final .317 average might lead one to forget just how hot he was early in the year, and he finished with slightly better rate stats and slightly less power than a year ago. The Featherheads have him locked up for the next 3 years at a very affordable rate. (UP – Prev: Top 50, Top 50)
14. SP Avery Parkinson (KEN) – 24 – Parkinson is one of the youngest players on this list but he deserves his spot. He was 3rd in the IL with a 2.58 ERA and went 17-7 for a Kentucky team that lost more than they won. He was awarded with a 3rd place finish in the IL Golden Arm vote. He’s got a very bright future ahead of him, but the question is whether or not the Thoroughbreds can surround him with the talent to win. (UP – Prev: NR)
13. LF Javier Soto (NJ) – 25 – New Jersey fans weren’t too happy to see PEBA hits leader Soto finish 2nd in the Royal Raker voting, but that’s where he landed. Soto actually led all of the PEBA in total bases, too, with 363. The area of his game that was rather lacking was plate discipline, where he drew just 26 walks on the year. He’s still very young and has a lot of time to learn. If this past season was any indication, he’ll be a serious offensive threat for a long time. (UP – Prev: NR)
12. 1B Ronald Harmon (WV) – 30 – Harmon saw his BABIP jump back up from a single season dip, and he hit .310 with 199 hits as a result. He matched his 2015 home run total of 33, but his doubles were up to a new career high of 45, allowing him to lead the IL with 79 extra base hits. The only concerning thing for him was that all this came at a trade off in walks, but that’s not really a big deal when you’re hitting like he is. He still had a .374 OBP. He followed up a 3rd place finish in the Royal Raker voting with his second consecutive All-Leather award at first base. Harmon will be a free agent after the 2017 season, and could be trade bait if the Alleghenies aren’t contending. (UP – Prev: 14, 20)
11. SP Félix Maese (BAK) – 25 – The Bears have an embarrassment of riches in their starting rotation. Maese is outranked on this list by two of his rotation-mates. It must be hard to get noticed when you go just 17-6 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That 2.44 ERA was actually worse than it had been in 2015. (UP – Prev: NR)
10. C Bob Keller (AUR) – 30 – Keller managed to stay healthy for a full season, and it was clear that was one of Aurora’s top priorities in the way they handled his playing time. As a result, he played in a career high 128 games. The results were a healthy player who didn’t hit quite as well as he had in 2015, but who was in the lineup more frequently. He did still manage 35 home runs and 109 RBI, but his walks were down by about half. (DOWN – Prev: 8, Top 50)
9. SP Fred Benjamin (BAK) – 27 – Fred Benjamin’s 80.1 VORP in 2016 was just the 9th time that a pitcher has reached the 80 VORP mark and he’s one of just 2 pitchers to do so since 2012. He led the SL with 20 wins, a 1.78 ERA, and 0.83 WHIP. His 6.49 H/9 were .5 better than any other SL pitcher. He was tremendous in 2014 when he won the SL Wunderkind award, but had a rather disappointing season in 2015, which is why he isn’t ranked any higher. (UP – Prev: NR)
8. 1B Ángel Cortéz (DUL) – 28 – Cortéz posted
a season to remember in 2016, nearly winning the SL Triple Crown. He led the SL in hits, home runs, RBI, runs, OBP, and SLG. He became the 15th player in PEBA history to post an 80+ VORP season. Since 2011, when 6 players did it, only one player each year has done it. The Warriors decided to sign him to an extension through his arbitration years as a result, and while they may have lost some savings during the pre-arbitration years, he’ll likely be worth far more than they’re paying him. The final year of the contract maxes out at $9 million. (UP – Prev: NR)
7. 1B Rob Raines (ARL) – 31 – Raines led the IL with 110 walks in 2016. It was the lowest walk total of his career since his rookie season in 2010, but also the 5th of the last 6 years that he’s led the IL. Those walks salvaged what was otherwise a very disappointing season from him. He hit just .259 and had a .286 BABIP, which is the first time his BABIP has ever been below .300. While many teams would love to have him manning first base, Arlington fans must be worried given that this season was posted after he signed a $143 million contract extension that will pay him over $20 million annually through his age 37 season. Perhaps he should spend more time as the team’s DH. (DOWN – Prev: 2, 3, 2)
6. RF Ricardo Longoria (CL) – 28 – Anyone that had any doubt that Longoria’s 2015 Royal Raker was a fluke had those doubts put to rest this past season. He led the SL with 40 home runs and added enough doubles and triples to be the only player to top 80 extra-base-hits for each of the past two seasons. It took a magical season from Ángel Cortéz to unseat him as the SL Royal Raker. (UP – Prev: 7)
Players Ranked 26-50, In Alphabetical Order
Before we finish out the list with the top 25, here are the next 25! These are the players that for one reason or another, perhaps an injury or high salary or age or simply the depth of quality players in the league, aren’t quite worthy of the top 25. These players aren’t ranked in order, so you’re welcome to place them in whatever order you like. Perhaps the real debate begins with the players not listed at all.
1B Mike Arnopp (FAR) – 31 – The sometimes overlooked Arnopp elevated his power game to new heights in 2016 and finished 5th in Royal Raker voting. (UP – Prev: NR)
3B Ron Baldwin (CL) – 28 – Baldwin finished second in the SL with 50 doubles in 2016. He hits for average and drives the ball, occasionally getting enough lift to hit one out. His home run power was down a bit this past year, and he hit for a lower average, but he’s still a very productive player who won’t be eligible for arbitration until after this season. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Dave Barker (DUL) – 27 – Barker managed to keep the ball in the park more but at the expense of a few strikeouts. His 1.07 WHIP was the best of his career. Is he getting to the age where significant improvement is no longer to be expected? (NC – Prev: Top 50)
SP Albert Bush (CON) – 27 – Bush had what was by far his best season in 2016, winning 20 games for the Warriors and losing just 4. He returns to the IL and will attempt to steer the Nutmeggers towards respectability. They are hoping that his 2.99 ERA and All-Star level of performance will continue in his new home, and have him for one more season under team control if he proves to have taken the step to become a dependable top of the rotation anchor. (UP – Prev: NR)
C Jason Corbett (OMA) – 28 – Corbett’s 2016 season was a big step back from this stellar 2015. He is still one of the best catchers in the league, and no one can take 2015 away from him. How he responds this season will be a huge factor in Omaha’s success. (NC – Prev: Top 50)
SP Roberto Córdova (FLA) – 28 – Córdova was a first time All-Star last season who led the IL with a .256 BABIP. It remains to be seen how successful he can be if that fluctuates, as he’s not a particularly strong strikeout pitcher and is prone to the longball. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP José Cruz (NJ) – 28 – Cruz gradually b
uilt on a solid 2015 by pitching more and increasing his strikeout rate. Pitchers don’t get noticed quite as easily in New Jersey, and it was very tempting to put Cruz in the top 25, but his WHIP over the past two seasons has us feeling a bit uneasy. He goes through stretches where he really struggles with his command, and by stretches, we mean games he pitches in. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Martín Francisco (AUR) – 28 – Francisco’s strikeout rate dropped and he had merely a solid season rather than the very good one he had in 2015. It seems that Aurora is loaded with players like him – guys who have the potential for a truly great season, but who aren’t able to do it consistently for a variety of reasons. (DOWN – Prev: 24)
3B Ralph Gunther (OMA) – 30 – Gunther got hurt after the All-Star break and that really dragged down his numbers. He still managed 30 home runs, but his 18 doubles were a huge drop from the 43 he hit in 2013. He could bounce back if he’s healthy, but it would be good to see his average go back up. He gets the benefit of the doubt due to injury and the fact that most challengers are unproven. (DOWN – Prev: 18)
RF John Knight (DUL) – 32 – It’s a bit hard to want to put Knight back into the Top 25 until he proves that he can perform at an elite level and stay healthy for more than one season in a row. In the meantime, Duluth got a very nice season out of him in 2016, just not elite level performance. (NC – Prev: Top 50, Top 50, 22)
3B Orlando López (AUR) – 27 – López gets on base, primarily through hitting for average, and has some gap power to go with it, but he’s not a power hitter. He’s a line drive hitter who hits the ball hard. Despite not being particularly fast, he’s got a career .394 BABIP, and his value is reliant upon maintaining that. (UP – Prev: NR)
1B José Martínez (CAN) – 27 – Injuries interrupted Vapor Lock’s sophomore season, but he still belted 31 home runs. Some are starting to wonder if he still has the Royal Raker potential that made him such a highly touted prospect or if injuries are taking their inevitable toll. (NC – Prev: Top 50)
2B Steve McDonald (AUR) – 30 – There’s a lot to love about Steve McDonald, but at $22 million annually there’s a lot of reasons he’s stuck in Aurora. Whether or not Aururo can convince him to take another high value short term deal will be interesting to watch this year. (DOWN – Prev: 19, 12, 16)
LF Eduardo Molina (CL) – 33 – Molina was nearly traded to Gloucester in the offseason after a year that was riddled with injuries. He did manage to appear in 91 games, hitting .354 in them with 22 home runs. He vetoed the trade and will hope to bring Crystal Lake their first title. (DOWN – Prev: 10, 9, Top 50)
SP Hiroyuki Nii (LON) – 28 – We can’t help thinking that Nii is going to have a truly tremendous season one of these days. The second time All-Star led the IL with 235 1/3 IP in 2016 and posted a 3.10 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. He also allowed an IL worst 34 home runs. (NC – Prev: Top 50)
SP Carlos Rivera (CON) – 24 – Rivera has e
stablished himself as one of the more promising young starters in the league, but he hasn’t taken the next step to become dominant. His biggest problem is that he simply allows too many hits, with a career .315 BABIP. He could very well contend for a Golden Arm if that number drops significantly one year. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Francisco Robles (CL) – 26 – Robles 2016 season has to be considered a disappointment given the expectations he set in 2015. He won just 14 games in front of the potent Crystal Lake offense and his nemesis was the long ball. His 27 home runs allowed was 4th in the SL. He still posted a solid strikeout rate and had the lowest hit rate of his career, so it’s entirely possible he’ll bounce back. (DOWN – Prev: 6, 8)
CL Enrico Rosado (BAK) – 30 – Rosado has been the league’s best reliever over the past two seasons, so he gets the nod here. (UP – Prev: NR)
1B Miguel Salinas (BAK) – 30 – No player has more hits than Salinas over the past two seasons. He’s got good gap power and will hit one deep now and then, but he doesn’t draw a ton of walks. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Cristo Santiago (GLO) – 24 – Santiago has gotten to this point by relying on his defense, but he did take some steps forward in the K/BB department. He’s held opponents to under a .270 BABIP each of the past two seasons, and given how young he is, that seems quite promising. He’s part of the reason the team was willing to trade Velázquez. (UP – Prev: NR)
2B Rafael Suárez (WV) – 30 – A year after raving about him in this space, Suárez drops significantly due to injury and poor performance when he was healthy. His power was down significantly, and the career .300 hitter managed to his just .236. Alleghenies fans are hoping beyond measure that he’s healthy and as good as ever. (DOWN – Prev: 5, 17)
3B Mario Tessier (NJ) – 27 – Tessier led the IL with a .342 batting average, but has one of the lowest extra base hit percentage of any player in the league. Back in 2014, he managed to hit 20 home runs, but he hasn’t even hit 10 in a season since. There’s a lot of potential there, and scouts love his gap power, but right now he’s a bit of a tease. (NC – Prev: Top 50)
CF Jay White (CL) – 28 – White may not be a home run hitter, but he led the SL in walks and doubles. He was the only SL player with over 100 walks. His .399 OBP over the past two seasons is fourth in the league and the 209 runs he’s scored in that time frame ranks second. (NC – Prev: Top 50)
LF Newton Wilcox (FLA) – 25 – Wilcox has been an All-Star in each of his first two seasons, belting 67 home runs in that time span. In 2016, he improved both his contact and his plate discipline, and also went on to win an All-Leather award. (UP – Prev: NR)
DH Sok-man Yi (REN) – 32 – Reno managed to grab one of the more dangerous hitters in the league on a one year contract that will give them ample opportunity to evaluate their long term plans. If he helps move the team forward, they can look to look him up for a few more seasons. If they struggle, they can look to trade him at the deadline to a contender. It’s practically a no-lose situation for a player who finished 6th in the SL in home runs despite missing a month of the season. (DOWN – Prev: 16, 23, 13)
And now …
The Top 5
5. DH Luis Torres (FLA) – 27 – It’s hard to believe, but Digger was probably overlooked a bit in terms of his production in 2016. He finished a distant 8th in the IL Royal Raker voting, but still posted his 6th straight 30 HR season and his 5th straight with 100+ walks. This past season was actually the 4th consecutive season with 100+ RBI, R’s, and BB’s. Another fun fact about him is that he’s had exactly 160 or 161 hits in each of those years. The Featherheads have him locked up reasonably through 2018. (DOWN – Prev: 3, 4, 3)
4. SS Ronald Lowry (CON) – 28 – Lowry took advantage of a down year by some of the other big names to edge out the younger Javier Soto for the IL Royal Raker. He’s the first Nutmegger to win a major award, and is still under contract for 3 additional seasons at a very reasonable rate. His .386 OBP and 115 RBI were new franchise records. He did all this while moving back from third base to shortstop, where he played superb defense. (NC – Prev: 4, 7, 10)
3. SP Chris York (FLA) – 27 – The only problem with tabbing York to rep
eat as the IL Golden Arm winner is that there’s a certain other pitcher that is starting the year out healthy again. Other than that, the flame thrower whose 264 K’s in 2016 were 31 better than anyone in the league and the most in the past two seasons is simply too dominant and young to ignore. York’s 6.40 H/9 were 1.1 H/9 better than any other IL pitcher, which is really quite ridiculous. (UP – Prev: 21, NR)
2. SP Manuel Corona (GLO) – 27 – How can we rank a player this high when he appeared in just 13 games last season? We make up the rules so we can do whatever we want! Corona’s ranking is so high because his injury occurred at the end of 2015 and all of his pitching in 2016 came at the end of the season. In those 13 starts, he posted a 0.90 WHIP and 2.90 ERA. If you want to look for nits to pick, there are actually some there. All his rate stats (K/9, BB/9, HR/9) were worse with the exception of hit rate (H/9). Since hit rate is largely dependent on defense, one could argue that he’s not quite as good as he was. Ok… we’ll still take him over almost anyone based on his past until he proves otherwise. (UP – Prev: 11, 2, 4)
1. SP Markus Hancock (BAK) – 31 – Hancock made his 8th straight All-Star appearance in 2016. To remind everyone how good he is and has been, his 1.00 WHIP in 2016 was the worst he’s had in all 8 of those years except 2011, when he had a 1.02 WHIP. It was, indeed, a down year for him. He posted a 2.69 ERA and was saddled with 9 losses. Along with his 18 wins, his 27 decisions were a career high. We think he’s happy to trade other-worldly dominance for merely being great and take his second championship ring. Hancock retains the top position due to his performance, his durability, and his consistency. (NC – Prev: 1, 1, 1)
Samuel Platt covers the Nutmeggers for the Connecticut Post