Saturday, April 4, 2015

A year ago, The Most Valuable PEBA Players was published in these pages for the first time. The listing provided a way for fans of every team to see how their hometown heroes stacked up with their arch nemeses. Naturally, the list stirred some controversy, so it seemed like a good idea to do it again this year.

Many of the most prominent names from a year ago are still on the list, but a number of newcomers have shown that they belong among the PEBA elite. Several players have traded one jersey in for another, either via trade or via free agency, but some of the more notable news stories revolved around players who didn’t change address.

For a lengthier description of the methodology, reread last year’s list, but the short of it is this: More often than not, a higher-ranked player would not be traded one-for-one for a lower-ranked player. Each player’s ability, contract, and age are taken into account. Each of the top 25 players have been ranked and commented upon. The remainder of the top 50 will also be presented, albeit with a little less information, and the age listed for each player is their age for the upcoming season (as of July 1^st).

The List

25. RF Jason Guillén (ARL) – 26 – Young and full of power, Guillén hit 31 home runs and posted 96 RBI despite a couple of nagging injuries and a lower average than each of the past two seasons. He’s not particularly cheap for a first-year arbitration player, but he’s not being paid out of line with his production, either. He adds a superb batting eye to his power. Any season where he can keep his average up should see him among the Royal Raker contenders.

24. 1B Al Edwards (AUR) – 28 – Edwards spent 2014 as the Borealis’s starting first baseman and was once again a solid contributor with the bat. His season didn’t look quite as good from an overall standpoint, but there were strong signs. He hit more home runs and drew quite a few more walks. The big difference between the two seasons was a huge drop in BABIP, which kept his average down. Unlike the rest of the first baseman on the list, Edwards has the defensive chops to play across the diamond at third base, and he’s agile enough to play at second or short if needed. This flexibility lets him crack the top 25.

23. 1B Sok-man Yi (CL) – 30 – Yi drops on the list after missing a bit of time in 2014, but he still managed to hit 28 home runs. His string of three straight seasons with over 100 runs, RBI, and walks came to an end, but a healthy 2015 should put him right back in that class again. He’s got a reasonable contract that runs through 2016.

22. SP Francisco Chávez (AUR) – 25 – Chávez has snuck under the radar a little with all the stars in Aurora, but he’s been very good the past two seasons. His 36-10 record isn’t simply a product of great run support. Over the past two seasons, his 1.04 WHIP is best on the team and sixth in the PEBA. He’s not a high strikeout guy, but keeps the ball in the strike zone and lets his defense work. He’ll be arbitration-eligible after the 2015 season for the first time.

21. 3B/SS Ken Keddy (FAR) – 24 – Keddy has always understood the strike zone. The man walked 142 times as an 18-year-old with Single-A Bismarck in 2009. It wasn’t until 2012, when he started to learn to hit for more power, that he really became a potential superstar. Over the past two seasons with the Dinosaurs, he’s hit 67 home runs and drawn 165 walks, but he took a big step forward in 2014 when he raised his average to .295. As a 23-year old, that’s a hugely promising sign for the Dinosaurs. If Keddy hits for that kind of average on a regular basis, with the defense he can play on the left side of the infield, he’ll be moving up this list.

20. 1B Ronald Harmon (WV) – 28 – Harmon already had two very good seasons under his belt prior to 2014, but he dramatically improved his pitch selection and posted an OBP over .400. He hit 27 home runs and had 100+ RBI and 100+ runs scored. However, there’s a bit of a question as to whether he can maintain all those walks. 24 of his 86 walks were intentional, which was seven more than anyone else in the PEBA. On the other hand, perhaps he’s just that good. He’ll have one more year of arbitration eligibility after his current two-year deal runs out.

19. SP Yoshitora Koyama (CL) – 27 – Probably one of the least well-known players in the top 25, Koyama has been with the Sandgnats since their beginning. Despite being taken in the inaugural PEBA draft and never pitching lower than AA, it wasn’t until his sixth season of professional ball that Koyama was given a brief two-game call up. In 2013, he went 12-8 with a 3.20 ERA, but he finished a distant third in Wunderkind voting. This past season, he improved to 14-9, posted a similar 3.24 ERA and threw 222 1/3^rd innings. He’s not a particularly scary pitcher – it’s more like death by a thousand cuts – but he gets the job done effectively. He’s entering his final year of automatic contract renewal, which makes him particularly valuable.

18. SP Cedric Mosley (FLA) – 33 – Mosley’s 2014 ended in injury, but he’ll be ready for spring training. He wasn’t bad this past season, yet while it would’ve been premature to expect him to pitch at a Golden Arm level again, it was still a bit of a disappointment. His 3.38 ERA was nearly a run higher than last year and he averaged under 6 innings per start, leading some to wonder if he might have to head back to the pen sooner than anyone anticipated. For now, that looks like a distant possibility unless 2015 is a step further in the wrong direction.

17. 2B Rafael Suárez (WV) – 28 – Suárez returned to All-Star form after dropping off the past two seasons from his Wunderkind-winning year in 2011. The key to his improvement was a sudden power surge that saw him belt 23 home runs after never hitting more than 15 in a season. Suárez missed five weeks of the season, though, so his counting stats are lower than what one would expect when looking at his rate stats, which included leading the IL with a .320 batting average.

16. SP Félix Ortega (ARL) – 25 – If there’s one thing that can be said for Ortega, it’s that he’s been reliable the past three seasons. While his record of 14-10 wasn’t as impressive as his 16-5 mark of 2013, his other numbers for the most part were better. He led the IL with a 1.03 BB/9IP, threw more innings, and posted a lower ERA and WHIP than in 2013. He’s signed to a team-friendly three-year extension that will take him through his arbitration years, giving the Bureaucrats some certainty around their costs in the coming seasons.

15. 1B Narahiko Imada (OMA) – 30 – Okay, he’s convinced us. A third-straight 36 home run season and a return to .400+ OBP territory has Imada jumping fairly high up the list. 2014 saw him make his fifth All-Star Game, his third consecutive. He reached triple digits in RBI and runs scored in each of those years, and his 115 runs scored led the SL. He placed fourth in Royal Raker voting, his highest finish since doing the same in 2010.

14. SP Kijuro Kojima (AUR) – 30 – Kojima’s ERA soared nearly half a run to 3.03 in 2014, which knocked him out of the SL top 10, but he added another 18 wins to top the PEBA career mark with 137 victories. The one point of concern for him is that his strikeout rate was down and his hit rate was up. He’s in the final year of a three-year deal. Aurora will be hoping to sign him to another team-friendly extension.

13. SP Dean O’Monahan (CST) – 31 – 2014 wasn’t a good season for “Fate”, whose 3.60 ERA was his highest since his rookie year in 2007 as a 23-year old. Despite the down season, we’re not losing faith in him. His 1.07 WHIP was fourth in the IL and his other peripheral numbers looked good, too, so look for him to bounce back. He’s in an interesting situation, though. He signed a seven-year extension that, from a salary standpoint, is pretty team-friendly in the near-term, but any drop-off in productivity will make it quite hard to move in future seasons. He’ll be 37 years old before the deal is up.

12. 2B Steve McDonald (AUR) – 28 – McDonald was his usual productive self, trading a few walks for a higher batting average and slugging percentage this year. He led the SL with 13 triples and stole 29 bases for the Borealis while playing quality defense at the keystone. He’s among four major contributors Aurora has destined for free agency after the season, and he’s probably the likeliest of the four to agree to an extension. The question will be whether the price is worth it given the young players Aurora h as who might replace him.

11. CF En-guo Guao (AUR) – 25 – In 2014, Guao proved that his 2014 Wunderkind season was no fluke. As pitchers adjusted to him, he adjusted his game, as well, hitting .299 with a .380 OBP. He scored 103 runs in 127 games. No other player in the PEBA who scored 100 runs did so in fewer than 149 games. His speed led to 42 stolen bases and an All-Leather Award for his defensive play in center field. Given the challenge some teams have with filling the centerfield position and the fact that Guao is entering his third season of automatic contract renewal, he’s an incredibly valuable commodity.

10. SP Roberto Rodríguez (PS) – 28 – Rodríguez lost almost all of 2013 to Tommy John surgery, which made him impossible to place on this list last year, but he returned to the Codgers with an All-Star season. He won 17 games and finished fourth in the SL with a 2.48 ERA. Aside from the surgery two years ago, he hasn’t had a particularly long medical record. A number of teams openly salivate at the idea of adding him to their roster should the Codgers ever decide to move him.

9. LF Eduardo Molina (CL) – 31 – Molina finally got the memo about staying healthy for a full season. He went forth and led the SL with 211 hits and 128 RBI. His 37 home runs were third in the league, as well. All of this added up to a second-place finish in the SL Royal Raker voting. The Sandgnats signed Molina to a very reasonable four-year contract extension in May. Only the final year looks like it might be hard to swallow, but it would require some regression before becoming problematic. He now has five consecutive 30 HR seasons, which puts him in some pretty rare company.

8. SP Francisco Robles (CL) – 24 – Robles’s place on this list marks the highest debut of any player this year. He finished third in the IL Golden Arm voting and fourth in ERA at 2.71. He now has two full seasons under his belt, both of which have been very good, and he just turned 24 in August. This past year, he won 18 games for the sixth-place Underground, who were dead last in the IL in scoring. His trade to Crystal Lake at the Winter Meetings makes him the highest-ranking player on this list to switch teams in the off-season. The return was a couple of major league-ready, high-end prospects. He’s got one year left of auto-renewal on his contract, which gives the Sandgnats control for another four years.

7. 3B Ronald Lowry (CON) – 27 – Lowry took a small step backwards this past season by hitting “only” 32 home runs and finishing fourth in the IL in VORP for the second straight year. Defensively, his move to third base allowed him to play his more natural position, and he excelled at it. The unquestioned leader of the Nutmeggers offense was arbitration-eligible for the first time this year, but the team signed him to five-year extension that is incredibly reasonable financially. Heading into his age 27 season, he should be poised for continued success.

6. LF Cory Pierce (AUR) – 29 – It’s hard to not want to demote a player in the rankings when he spent a couple of weeks on the DL and appeared in only 130 games… which was a career high! However, it’s impossible not to raise a player in the rankings when he wins the Royal Raker Award for the second time in three years, has a second-place finish in between, and has signed a ridiculously team-friendly contract extension for that kind of performance.

Players Ranked 26-50, In Alphabetical Order

Before we finish out the top 25 list, here are the next 25! These are the players that for one reason or another – perhaps an injury, or high salary, or age, or simply the depth of quality players in the league – aren’t quite worthy of the top 25. The methodology for the list is that players with little track record at the major league level aren’t ranked highly, so don’t expect to see the best rookies from 2014 here. They’ve got to show the league they really belong before they’ll break in. They’ll get their due soon enough if they deserve it. These players aren’t ranked in order, so the real debate is with the guys that get left out of the top 50 completely.

CL Jorge Aguilar (KEN) – 32 – There are a number of excellent relief pitchers in the league, so it’s hard to pick one for this list. Aguilar’s been the closer for the Thoroughbreds for just one season but has posted an ERA under 2.00 each of the past two years, with a WHIP under 1.00.

LF Chris Allen (FAR) – 29 – Allen’s production took a step back before he was traded to Fargo. It still seems like there’s more to come from him.

SP Bill Bradley (AUR) – 27 – He missed all of last season with a torn rotator cuff and isn’t due back until May, but people still have high expectations for him when he returns.

SP José Cruz (CL) – 34 – Cruz was tremendous last season and is now in the final year of a four-year contract. Another season like the last one will make it hard for the Sandgnats to offer anything but a big-money deal.

SP Chandler Davis (FAR) – 2014 split the difference between a mediocre 2012 and a great 2013. Another season like the last one would keep Dinosaurs fans happy.

C Manuel González (NJ) – 35 – He’s too old and expensive to be ranked in the top 25, but he’s got two things going for him: he’s easily the best hitting catcher in the league, and his contract expires this year.

1B Carlos Guerera (BAK) – 29 – A superb hitter who gets overshadowed by some of the big boppers at his position. One of only four players with an OPS+ of 150 or greater in both 2013 and 2014. The Chocolate Factory at Yum! Field is not his friend.

3B Corbin Hickman (FLA) – 26 – Hickman took a step back from his rookie campaign but was still very productive. He’s young enough to expect big things for him in the future.

2B Chris Holmes (CL) – 28 – The SL home run leader bounced back from a mediocre 2013 in a big way. If he combines the best of 2012 and 2014, he’ll be a Royal Raker contender.

CF Dan Jamison (FLA) – 29 – Jamison missed some time and saw his production suffer, as well, but quality center fielders are hard to come by. Despite playing in just 114 games, his 56 SB were 16^th in PEBA history.

C Bob Keller (AUR) – 28 – It’s hard to put a guy on the list who hasn’t had more than one good season, but Keller is the reason Wilson Berry got benched. It’s hard to ignore the reasons why.

RF John Knight (AUR) – 30 – Knight again missed a fair amount of time with a variety of injuries, but more troubling was the large drop-off in production from his 2013 Royal Raker season.

SP Keitaro Kodo (FLA) – 35 – Aging like fine wine, Kodo was better at 34 than he was at 32 or 33. He doesn’t look like he’s ready to slow down anytime soon.

RF Mark Lamb (LON) – 27 – Lamb’s injury-plagued season saw him play in just 70 games and resulted in a trade to London. It seemed that every time he came off the DL, he went right back on it a few days later. If healthy, he’s an on-base machine that any team could use.

SP Bill Lewis (FAR) – 24 – Don’t be surprised to see Lewis eventually become a mainstay of the top 25. He’s in select company when it comes to strikeout rate.

2B Artie Marsh (BAK) – 32 – The career hits leader, Marsh isn’t the perennial All-Star you’d expect him to be. The problem is simply the depth at the position, which is stunning compared to shortstop.

2B Britt Martin (CST) – 30 – Martin is progressing in the wrong direction and a bounce-back season after missing much of the end of the regular season would be encouraging. His playoff numbers were good, so there is cause for optimism.

SP Conan McCullough (CST) – 34 – Despite the ridiculous contract and the fact that he’ll miss the start of the year, he’s so danged good that he’d be high on any contender’s wish list.

LF Yoshino Miyata (FAR) – 33 – At some point, you have to consider a contract unmovable. On the other hand, you also have to consider just how good a player is. It’s hard to think of a reasonable top 50 list PEBA that doesn’t include Miyata. Somehow, teams would find a way to make the contract work, just as Fargo did.

SS George Riley (CON) – 35 – Mark Richardson’s premature decline means that Riley is the only shortstop in the top 50, although a number of the players listed at other positions (like Keddy) would be able to play there, too. Riley is old, but he still gets on base regularly enough to be a serious offensive threat. His big contract can be terminated after the season if his play doesn’t warrant picking up the option.

SP Barney Sharp (CON) – 29 – Sharp isn’t a great pitcher, but he’s been consistently good and has a solid contract. The Nutmeggers need him to continue to pitch well if they’re to finally become a contender.

2B Joel Swedlove (KAL) – 27 – Swedlove signed a confusing three-year contract extension last July, announced two days after he was placed on the DL with a sprained ankle. The injury didn’t seem to hurt his base stealing, but it was clear that it had been bothering him earlier in the season. Hopefully, an off-season of rest has him fully healthy and back to his old self in 2015.

SP Artie Tillman (AUR) – 30 – Tillman has recorded a combined 41 wins the past two seasons. While he’s not in the echelon of the league’s elite, he’s consistently very good and underpaid.

LF Chris Wright (CAN) – 31 – The Longshoremen are an easy team to forget about at times. They’re not in the news frequently, but while they’ve never broken .500, they’re not typically a terrible team, either. Wright gave fans someone to cheer for in 2014.

RF Kwang-Chih Zhu (FLA) – 28 – Zhu was fifth in the IL in home runs and posted 100 RBI for the second time in his career. The last time his OPS fell below .800 was 2008. His main problem is that he’s had some trouble staying healthy.

And now, the players you’ve all been waiting for…

The Top 5

5. SP Armando Gallegos (FAR) – 31 – Gallegos was ranked highly last year based heavily on the fact that his contract is so team-friendly. Yes, he had shown himself to be very good, too, but other pitchers were in a similar class. In 2014, he went out and had his best year ever by controlling the strike zone. His K/BB ratio jumped a full point from 4.46 to 5.56. His 2.27 ERA ranked third in the SL and he led the league in quality start percentage.

4. LF Luis Torres (FLA) – 25 – Years from now, people will look back on 2014 and wonder how on earth Torres missed the All-Star Game. The IL leader in home runs and RBI hit just .183 in April, resulting in a .252 average at the break. Yes, he had 20 home runs and a .375 OBP, but fans voted in other players with a better first half. It seems likely that seeing James Hayes on the All-Star squad over Torres probably wasn’t what most wanted. After the All-Star break, Torres hit .317 and drew 77 walks to post a .480 OBP while continuing to mash his way to a runner-up Royal Raker finish.

3. 1B Rob Raines (ARL) – 29 – It’s come to the point where the statement can be definitively made: No player stands out above his peers the way Rob Raines does. He ranks third on this list simply because pitching seems to be in more demand than first basemen, but Raines is further ahead of his peers than either of the top two players. Raines’s combined VORP over the past two seasons is 45 points better than Torres’s, who ranks second. That’s like adding António Coronado’s production to Torres’s, or nearly as much value as Manuel González provided the Hitmen this past season.

2. SP Manuel Corona (GLO) – 25 – Corona jumps to second on the list after a dominating Triple Crown and Golden Arm-winning season for the Fishermen at the age of 24. He won 22 of the team’s 79 games this year, twice more than any other pitcher on his team, while playing in the highly competitive Pan-Atlantic division and despite getting “support” from an offense that ranked 17^th in the league in runs scored. Imperial League fans routinely declared Corona to be a better pitcher than Markus Hancock during this past season, and one could easily argue that he was indeed better than Hancock. However, Corona hasn’t been good for long enough to dethrone him. Corona also is arbitration-eligible this year. While he’s under team control for three seasons, a long-term contract will be needed to ensure that he doesn’t dominate off-season speculation every year.

1. SP Markus Hancock (BAK) – 28 – It’s a testament to his past that we can look at Hancock’s 2014 season and consider that it may actually have been slightly worse than his previous season. Despite reclaiming the SL Golden Arm Award, his strikeouts were down and his walk rate was up. Potato, potahto. He got a five-year contract extension, and it’ll be interesting to see how many of those seasons he’s able to collect on that $1.6 million Golden Arm bonus.

Samuel Platt covers the Nutmeggers for the Connecticut Post