An analysis by American Baseball Perspective

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

In the inaugural offseason for the League of the Rising Sun, 12 new owners find themselves trying to mold and shape their organizations to fit their style.  While the auction allowed these owners to more or less pick their favorite team, you don’t always like every player on your favorite team and not every owner ended up with the team they wanted.  In fact one owner (Noel Simmons of the Edo Battousai) was just awarded a team this week.

With new ownership comes a fresh attitude and the hope of a new start.  Teams that have not been successful in recent years will obviously look to rebuild, but in a lot of cases teams that have been successful will also look to do the same.  Ownership in the PEBA and the LRS is not about making money or putting fans in the seats.  These owners are extremely competitive in their trade and would rather finish .500 with their stamp on the team then to sit still and win the Neo-Tokyo Cup with a roster built by a former owner who only left because there was a hostile takeover.

The arrival of trade season has not brought the fireworks just yet.  In my opinion this is the effect of many teams with the same agenda.  It’s no secret that when the PEBA took over the LRS it was because the price was right.  The former LRS regime was full of power-hungry owners who seemed to know little about baseball, constantly handing out huge contracts to washed-up ex-PEBA journeyman.  This has left many teams with single players who take up as much as ¾ of their budget.  In many cases this was overlooked by new owners as they felt they’d be able to pawn off the player in a salary dump.  But with 8 out of 12 teams in the red and none with more then 4 million in the bank… who exactly is going to take on these burdens?

As we take a look at the trade market, there doesn’t seem to be too many attractive options out there.  Out of the 5 teams that have hit the papers with trade rumors, 4 have specifically said they want young players, draft picks or prospects.  Fair enough.  Let’s see what they are offering in return.

As you can see, it’s slim pickings.  If you’re in the market for an overpaid veteran and are willing to give up some highly-touted youngsters… then this is the market for you.  If not, then come stand in line with all the other frustrated LRS owners who are trying to free up some budget space.  For now it’s just a stare-down as the LRS owners are making “fantasy baseball”-style trade offers with the hopes of finding that one dumb owner.  But as the lack of activity might suggest, I don’t think that owner is here.

Over the next few weeks, expect the expectations to lower.  Teams will eventually meet in the middle.  One idea that I can see happening is a “bad contract swap meet”; trading a bad contract at a position of strength for a bad contract at a position of need.  It may not sound like an ideal situation – which it isn’t – but a good owner can fill his team needs and possibly even save a million or 2 in the process.

With the Winter Meetings only a week away and some teams already having heated discussions, look for some trades to happen sooner rather then later.  Once the market value for salary dumps gets established we should see a domino effect with many more deals coming together rapidly.  Hold on to your caps, folks… this winter could be a wild ride.