Niihama-shi, Japan – July 21, 2036

The Niihama-shi Ghosts, one of only two PEBA franchises that’s never made it to the PEBA playoffs, reached the All-Star break in the Sovereign League’s second wild card spot. They held a four-game lead over the resurgent Fargo Dinosaurs and stood 3.5 games behind the Shin Seiki Evas. After a post-break demonstrative sweep of last year’s Desert Hills champions, the Aurora Borealis, the Ghosts separated themselves from the wild card field by another game and closed the gap with the Evas to just a half a game. Are these Ghosts simply a mirage? A phantasm? If not, are they really contenders?

A Slow Start

The Ghosts started off slow in 2035, limping to a 39-50 record and being a general disappointment until after the All-Star break. The turn took some time but came to pass following the promotions of John MacVurich and Harold Stowe.  A ten-game winning streak to end August and launch an epic September left the Ghosts with a winning PEBA season for the first time in franchise history. After an off-season that saw the addition of star veteran Pedro Flores and a flurry of trades to reinforce the bullpen, expectations were higher than ever at the start of the 2036 season.

The team exceeded expectations for a moment, opening the season by taking 9 of 11 from the Great Lakes division champion Kalamazoo Badgers and 2 of 3 from the Evas. The shine soon dimmed, though, as the Ghosts won just one of their next nine series. Perhaps it was playing 24 straight games without a day off in the entire month of April that triggered the slump. Their 8-21 record from 4/17 to 5/18 would have crushed most teams, especially such a young team: the Ghosts have just four players over the age of 30 and their oldest pitcher is 28. Sophomore manager Chris Harris, however, kept the team focused and pulling in the same direction. A sweep of Neo Tokyo and a weekend series win over Toyoma rekindled some hopes, and after a bit of mediocrity to close out an awful May, a 2-1 victory over Crystal Lake on June 13^th would bring the Ghosts back to .500 for the first time in over a month. The next day’s win would make it five wins in a row, part of an eventual 10-game streak that would help the Ghosts post an 18-8 record in June. The Ghosts have continued their surge in July with a 13-3 record at the time of this writing.

Home Field Advantage

If one were to cast aspersions on the Ghosts season to date, a great starting point would be to point out that not only have they played the most home games of any team in PEBA, they have also relied heavily on them to win. Their 40-15 home record is tied with Kentucky for second best in the league, behind the Alleghenies 33-8 mark and ahead of Florida’s 29-11 record. Worse, their away record is terrible (15-23). Meanwhile, the Evas have played 15 less home games and will enjoy the rest as Niihama flies all about the globe. The sweep of Aurora at Northern Lights Park is certainly a small glimmer of hope, as is the fact that during their May struggles, the Ghosts lost 9 of their 11 away game losses by one run. So while the overall home and away record disparity is stark, it’s not likely to remain quite so dramatic. Still, the 2036 battle remains an uphill march for the young Ghosts.

Injuries

There is no doubt that on the scale of things, the Ghosts have been exceeding fortunate in the injury categories. Pedro Flores and Harold Stowe each missed five weeks, but beyond that only SP Connor Leith has lost any significant time, and that has only been to a series of nagging day-to-day injuries. Leith is working to regain his form in AAA, and the rest of the roster is completely healthy. This is, of course, unlikely to continue. Do the Ghosts have the depth to absorb major injuries? Considering they just traded for a starting pitcher to allow Leith the opportunity to work in AAA, perhaps not. They have a few extra pen arms, so a loss there is unlikely to sting too badly. They also have good depth in the infield with Adrian Fuentes in a platoon role and The Celestial Jaguar in AAA. Outfield depth was challenged when both Flores and Stowe went down, but even with two such losses, the Ghosts could field a competent Chris Vincent as they did before. Losing C Steve McDonald could be problematic, as the Ghosts have cycled through several uninspiring backup catcher options and just released C Manny Castro. Outside of that, and the fact that stars such as Jin-song Zambrano or John MacVurich simply cannot be replaced, the Ghosts seem to have reliable depth to lean on in the event of injury.

Strength of Schedule

Perhaps the most challenging aspect of the Ghosts’ build has been the quality of opponent. The SL, for some time now, fielded more teams than the IL competing for playoff spots, making the SL a challenging environment for a new team to gain footing. Beyond that, the Rising Sun division is stacked with strong organizations and talented PEBA rosters. The combined record of the RS is currently 265-198 (.572) – best in PEBA by a wide margin. The next best divisions are the IL’s Seaboard (.515) and Dixie (.512) – though those divisions are dominated by super teams and a host of teams in rebuild mode. Before the season, the Great Lakes (.511) was expected to be just as or perhaps even more competitive than the RS, but to date they have been a step behind the RS.

Where does this leave Niihama? Likely with about the same outlook as they have had so far. Having played the Evas 12 times to date (and posting a 7-5 record), they only have 6 games remaining against their self-proclaimed rivals. The reverse is true of the season series against the SL-leading Toyoma Wind Dancers, though. The Ghosts have 12 remaining games with which to test their mettle against the best of the SL. The good news is that they have reason for hope in those contests: they split the series so far this year and won it last year.

Pythagoras’s Input

While of limited value, tallying up all the runs scored and runs allowed and using some simple algebra can provide a rough means of estimating how well a team is performing aside from its win-loss record. By that metric, the Ghosts have scored 89 more runs than they’ve allowed. That total is good enough for second best in the SL behind Toyoma’s 146 run differential. It firmly places the Ghosts among the leading playoff contenders in the SL: Duluth (+57) and Shin Seiki (+74).

It’s worth noting that not only do 4 of 5 RS teams have winning records, but they also have 4 of the 5 best run differentials. The only non-RS team in the top five is Duluth in 4^th place. It’s a tough division to play in, but the Ghosts are holding their own.

Aberrant Performances

Another aspect of predicting future performance is looking for players that have either grossly over-achieved or under-achieved and expecting their performance to regress to career norms. This can be a challenge with young teams, with so many regulars in their first or second seasons, because their career norms are still being defined. Beyond that, this season posts another challenge in so far as rule adjustments have greatly increased offensive output across the board, with the glaring exception of stolen bases, which have been dramatically reduced after PEBA banned cleats on the basepaths in favor of crocs. Thankfully, statisticians have armed us with the likes of adjusted stats like OPS+ and FIP- to help us compare play across different seasons. Among Niihama veterans with established career norms, few appear to be having aberrant performances. 1B Ramon Guzman is having a career season (OPS+ 143 vs career 97 and previous career high 110), but with his limited playing time, a regression isn’t likely to have much affect on the team’s win column. Ditto for the under-achieving backup C Nolan McMahon: OPS+ 41 vs career 80/94. Returning from a devastating torn rotator cuff last June, has been struggling (FIP- 110, career 98/80), but has also been shifted to the bullpen with the emergence of stud rookie SP Fernando Valdez. Veteran RP Noritada Akiyama is having a banner year, and a regression from him could have a noticeable impact on the team as he’s been the setup anchor behind “Wild Card” (FIP- 68 vs career 94/63). Perhaps the most impactful regression, though, would be if sophomore SS Jin-song Zambrano were to overcome his early season struggles (OPS+ for April, May, and June: and 93, 60, 106 vs rookie year 131) and continue his July outburst (OPS+ 149). The team’s cleanup hitter going from replacement level to all-star level would certainly help the team win a few extra games. So, in summary, the Ghosts have little to fear from regression (though that speaks nothing to slumps) and perhaps even stand to gain some ground on that front.

The Outlook

On one hand, the Ghosts have a lot going for them as they exit the All-Star break. They hold a playoff spot with small but not insignificant lead over the field. While no one can predict the impact of injuries, but the Ghosts are currently healthy and with viable depth. The team is red hot, posting a win-loss record rivaled by only the best of the best over the last six weeks. Their run differential has bloated over that frame. Perhaps their best player has yet to reach his expected level of production.

On the other hand, the team is young. Young teams tend to be streaky, and an extended losing streak could easily allow room for one or more of the many talented teams vying for a wild-card spot to take their place. What’s more, the remaining schedule being dominated by road trips is certainly problematic for a team with a losing away record on the season.

Regardless of the outlook, the fans are showing their support for this up and coming team: over 3.1M fans have graced the stands of Oikake Maze (2nd in PEBA) so far on the year. If this young team can keep improving, the city may just be consumed by Ghosts green.