Spring Training Preview – Arlington
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Catcher:
Larry Brown
Ronnie Johnstone
Johnstone is the incumbent and Brown is the challenger. Ronnie was an elite defender in 2007, but it appears that he can no longer shut down the running game. Considering the pitching staff tends to pitch to contact, it’s pretty important for the ‘Crats to keep runners out of scoring position. I’d consider the offensive match-up a wash: Johnstone is barely above league average with the bat, and Brown is an unproven ex-super prospect with terrible plate discipline. With Brown having some possible upside, I’m going to give this one to the rookie.
Edge – Larry Brown
First Base:
Cipriano López
Rob Raines
Nelson Campos
Pablo Souza
Raines has started at first since he was called up in 2010. Oh yeah, he also won the All-Leather Award for the position. The smart money is on him being the starter again in 2011. At this point, López is better suited for DH duty and
Edge – Rob Raines
Second Base:
Pablo Souza
Kiril Nijenboer
Nelson Campos
José Herrera
Campos and Herrera are both unproven minor leaguers and most likely won’t (and shouldn’t) be considered for the starting job. Realistically, we’re looking at a competition between Souza and Nijenboer. “Wait!” you might say, “isn’t Kiril your third baseman!?” Arlington has four infielders for three infield slots, so it looks like manager Rafael Navarro might mix things up. Besides, Kiril does have some experience at the position. Pablo was the starter in 2010, but a down year offensively means that he won’t be handed the job on a silver platter in 2011. Scouts have been waiting for years for Souza’s bat to come around, but it’s starting to look like the ‘Crats have received all they’re going to get. Nijenboer also had a down year, but he’s succeeded at this level before and has the potential to hit 18-20 home runs. That kind of power from a second baseman with adequate defense should have Navarro leaning towards the K-Nidge.
Edge – Kiril Nijenboer
Shortstop:
Shimei Nakamura
David Teague
José Herrera
Last season the ‘Crats signed Nakamura to a three-year deal that made him the second highest-paid player on the team. Unfortunately for the front office, he was the team’s second worst hitter for most of the season. He did show some signs of life at the end of the season and almost got his average above the Mendoza line. Yay! The team is paying him over $10 million this season, so he’s bound to be starting somewhere. However, I don’t think it will be at short. Teague needs the playing time so that the front office can evaluate him over a whole season. Arlington seems to be undergoing a mini-rebuild, so they can afford to throw the youngster at the wall to see if he sticks. Neither player is a defensive wizard, so I’m saying Teague gets the nod.
Edge – David Teague
Third Base:
Kiril Nijenboer
Shimei Nakamura
Nelson Campos
Both Nijenboer and Nakamura played third in 2010. Kiril has the better arm, but Shimei gets to more ground balls. Nakamura was brought in to play shortstop, but at this point in his career – and with Teague needing playing time – it makes the most sense to have him man the hot corner in 2011. However, this would displace Nijenboer; if you read the analysis for the battle for second base above, you’ll see that I think I know to where he should be moved. Let’s hope that the Japanese slugger can put 2010 behind him and get back to hitting the ball.
Edge – Shimei Nakamura
Left Field:
Joseph Lane
Chris Wright
Joseph Lane was acquired from the Bears this winter and is a lock to start somewhere in the 2011 outfield. He’s a solid defender at all three positions, but I think he fits in best in left on this team. Wright is an average to slightly below-average defender and could potentially be a good hitter. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been the same after breaking his arm in 2009, and he had a terrible 2010. He was once seen as a possible starting outfielder for this club, but it looks like he will be a reserve outfielder unless he can remember how to hit. Lane is pretty much a one-dimensional hitter: he tries to hit the ball far. However, the team likes his athleticism and will likely give him a full-time job to see if he can harness some of his raw skills.
Edge – Joseph Lane
Center Field:
Mario Hernández
Joseph Lane
Travis Bunch
Hernández and Lane are probably the best defenders, but Bunch can also play the position in a pinch (that was fun to say). Mario Hernández is in the last year of his contract and has been the starting centerfielder for most of his stay with the club. There are some concerns about him facing right-handed pitchers, but his defense is too valuable to leave him out of the lineup. I’m going to say the veteran keeps his job.
Edge – Mario Hernández
Right Field:
Travis Bunch
Chris Wright
Toshiro Takahashi
Bunch has been one of the best hitters in the short history of the Arlington Bureaucrats. Unfortunately, he’s also the guy the team picked to give rookies a tour of the medical facilities. He’s been banged up almost every season since 2008 and it’s only a matter of time before the injuries start slowing him down. Considering he had a bit of a down year last year, let’s hope he hasn’t already started to decline. If anything happens to Bunch, Wright might be given a chance to start again. The long shot here is Toshiro Takahashi. The old regime signed him to a major league contract and now he’s out of options. He’s never played above the low minors so I don’t seem him making the team (or hitting his weight in Spring Training, for that matter).
Edge – Travis Bunch
Designated Hitter:
Cipriano López
Kiril Nijenboer
Unless López regresses suddenly, he’s pretty much a lock for DH. He’s been the best hitter on the team for the past couple of seasons and should have another decent year left in him. It does seem that he’s regressed each year, but he should still be a productive player. Nijenboer has some power and could be a candidate for the position if López gets injured and Souza wins the battle for second base. There isn’t much of a battle here, though.
Edge – Cipriano López
Starting Rotation:
Luis Garza
Carlos Pérez
Tomás Yánez
Pedro Chávez
Ken Johnstone
Steve Drake
Joe White
Vicente Gámez
Edge – Víctor Matos. Wait, you say we don’t have Alibi this year?! Well, this rotation might need an alibi by the end of the season. There aren’t any top-of-the-rotation starters in this group and it looks like the ‘Crats are going to try to get by with league-average pitching. I guess that’s not a bad strategy during a rebuilding phase, and their 2010 offense was more of a concern than the pitching. I’m guessing the top four spots will be given to Garza, Pérez, Yánez and Chávez. They pretty much have to give the fifth spot to Johnstone since he’s set to make over $10 million. He was once a great pitcher, but for some reason he can no longer find the strike zone. In theory, he’ll be battling Drake, White and Gámez for the spot. Gámez was decent in 2009 but has control problems of his own. Drake and White are emergency options at this point and probably won’t give the ‘Crats anything better than league average production (if that).
Prediction:
Luis Garza
Carlos Pérez
Tomas Yánez
Pedro Chávez
Ken Johnstone
Closer:
Peter Goodwin
Owen Hinton
Charlie Swan
Swan finished the 2010 season as the team’s closer. Before that, Goodwin closed games, and then a “closer-by-committee” experiment happened. I expect there will be a defined closer in 2011 and it really could be any of these three guys. Goodwin has pinpoint control and keeps hitters off-balance with a fastball-change combo. However, a majority of batters he faces put the ball in play, making it a little dicey later in games when there are men on base. Hinton, on the other hand, misses some bats. He also tends to give up his fair share of homeruns, which are never good in late-game situations. Swan seems to be the best bet in that he strikes out more batters than the other guys and he keeps the ball in the park. He’s a fastball-slider reliever and was a fantastic find by the ‘Crats scouting department in 2010.
Edge – Charlie Swan
Bullpen:
Owen Hinton
Peter Goodwin
Eldon Cahill
Javier Lozano
José Ferrer
Raymond Carberry
José Vargas
Brent Cochran
Michael Bender
Joe White
Steve Drake
Vicente Gámez
Assuming the ‘Crats will go with a 12-man pitching staff, we have six spots to fill. It’s nice to have so many legitimate options and the ‘Crats will have a decent ‘pen in 2011 provided enough arms stay healthy. The locks are Goodwin and Hinton (assuming one of them doesn’t take the closer spot). Carberry has proven to be a solid fireman over the second half of 2010, and Lozano will most likely get another look. That leaves two more spots. José Ferrer pitched well for the club in 2009 and will probably get some consideration because of it, though don’t be surprised if he gets the axe if he has a shoddy spring. Cahill struck out 22 men in 16.1 innings with his power curve, though he was wild at times and tended to leave his offerings up in the zone. He’ll make the team with a solid spring but will probably be optioned to AAA if he struggles. If Cahill doesn’t make the team or someone gets hurt, the remaining pitcher who has the best Spring Training will likely be the 12th man.
Prediction:
Owen Hinton
Peter Goodwin
Ramond Carberry
Javier Lozano
Jose Ferrer
Eldon Cahill
- Team MVP Prediction: Rob Raines
- Team Golden Arm Prediction: Charlie Swan
- Team Top Rookie Prediction: David Teague
- Team Comeback Player Prediction: Shimei Nakamura
- Team Surprise Performance Prediction: Carlos Pérez