by Ray D. Enzé, Northern Lights News Exclusive

 May 1, 2018: Yuma, Arizona – Aurora’s run of nine consecutive playoff appearances came to an end in 2017 – the surprising run of the Reno Zephyrs being the catalyst of that end, but 2018 is a new year and if the first 28 games are any indication, the 2018 model will be scrappy and fight through what looks to be a very difficult Desert Hills campaign.

April has historically been a tough month for the Borealis, though finishing the month in first was always a given. After last year’s April hole they dug for themselves, they never were able to fully recover and contend. Today, as May begins to unfold, Aurora finds themselves in an unprecedented position – a first place tie with the… Yuma Bulldozers! Don’t get too excited Aurora-philes, Bakersfield and those pesky Zephyrs are just a half game out. It’ll be tempting to think that three of these teams will storm the post-season, but with a very weak bottom half of the Great Lakes Division, these four teams could beat each other into submission and cost one – or maybe even two a playoff spot.

What has Aurora a top the Desert Hills thus far? Pitching, and in particular their starting rotation. Let us spell things out clearly here: Aurora’s pitching staff has a 3.26 ERA and an OAVG of .229. More impressively the starters have posted a 3.17 ERA, a .222 OAVG and a .269 BABIP. Conversely (and perhaps ultimately more deadly to Aurora’s playoff hopes), Aurora’s hitters as a group are hitting .238 and averaging 4 runs a game (7^th in the SL, and last in the Desert Hills), primarily on a SL second best 36 HR.

After the embarrassing loss in the PEC to end the 2014 season, to the pitching-rich Charleston Statesmen, GM Will Topham was faced with an aging and oft-injured rotation that needed a facelift. Martín Francisco was acquired from Arlington prior to the 2015 season and was the first in a series of deals (Anastasio López, from Manchester in 2016 and Darryl Lewis, also from Arlington, in 2017) that Topham saw as an attempt to rebuild the rotation, while he worked through the draft to build a future one.

The Borealis entered 2018 having let ‘Slappy’ Bradley leave as a free agent and then trading Francisco Chávez to San Antonio to make room for the young pair of Edgardo Rojas and Michael Provost – the last step in the re-making of the rotation. Frankie is currently pitching middle relief for the Calzones (and with a mixed bag of results) and Bradley, who signed with Kuwana of the LRS, is getting set to begin his Japanese career after a shaky spring. Meanwhile, these decisions, and those made to rebuild the rotation, look like wise ones for the Aurora GM.

The real bull of the rotation is none other than ‘Sawmill’. Francisco (3-1) has a 2.54 ERA and in his 39 IP he has held teams to a .224 average and struck out 27 and given up nary a long ball. ‘Sawmill’ was having a great season last year when he ruptured a tendon in his finger in July and missed 13 starts. He definitely seems to be fully recovered and once again is pitching at All-Star levels. In four of his six starts he has given up a single run, including starts versus Reno, Fargo and Yuma. Martín signed a team-friendly 3-year deal prior to last year, with a pair of option years that will keep him around, anchoring the staff.

Rojas (2-3) may have had some control struggles and has given up 5 HR thus far, but he sports a respectable 3.46 ERA – thanks to limiting opponents to a .167 average. What may endear Rojas to Aurora fans for years to come is the seemingly ease to which he handles Bakersfield – two starts, 12.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, not to mention his 1 H performance over 5.2 IP v. Reno. If he can reduce the walks (17 over 26 IP to reduce the effectiveness of his 28 K), Aurora will have a special arm, that’s for sure. Edgardo is beginning his first full year in the big leagues, so he’s guaranteed to be around for a while.

Provost (1-2), he of the $14.5M contract signed as a free agent in 2016, has shown he is ready for primetime. Sporting a team leading 2.43 ERA, Provost has managed to keep the free passes to a minimum (10 BB in 29.2 IP) and the ball in the park (1 HR). His .214 OAVG and 1.15 WHIP are both second best on the team. His two loses came to the hands of the Bears and Duluth – both 2-0 games where the offense had 7 H, combined, in those two games. Aurora has already invested $26M in Michael as he developed in the minors the past two seasons, and Provost’s unique contract is built with vesting options for 2019 and 2020 – What the Boy Wonder GM called at the time ‘Mike Wallace Insurance Clauses’. Should he continue to pitch as he has, that option will vest and should he pitch Aurora to the post-season, then some of that $26M will certainly have been earned.

Darryl Lewis has started 2018 strongly – much as he did in 2017, His 5-0 record and 3.18 ERA was enough to earn him the SL Pitcher of the Month of April award. His month was even more impressive if you eliminate the one ND he had – a 2 inning, 6 run stinker versus Reno. ‘Quagmire’ is holding teams to a .237 average and like his rotation mates Rojas, López and Francisco, is helping to keep Aurora at or near the top the SL in strikeouts. Lewis was brought in to anchor the staff, but he is the one pitcher whose contract is set to expire. Financial constraints prevent Aurora from seeking an extension now – and if ‘Quagmire’s performance continues, he is likely to be gone next year with a much more lucrative contract. Should the soon-to-be 30 year-old bolt, Aurora will turn to the young rotation developing in the minors where they have the highly sought after Christian Murdoch, as well as Junior Cook and Mike Lovell ready to give the majors a shot.

Anastasio López may have a 1-3 record and a 4.25 ERA that suggests he’s the ‘weak sister’ of the Aurora rotation, but his 43 K have him second, behind Gunner MacGruder in the SL, and tops in K/9 . Perhaps López needed an extended spring – or just more work, as early starts versus Bakersfield and Reno have done most of the damage to his ERA. His last start, a 7 inning, 11 K, 2-1 win over Fargo leaves Aurora fans hopeful the big lefty is rounding into shape. After a stellar 2016 season for Aurora, 2017 was a struggle for Anastasio – which included a brief stint on the DL. He continues to post a 4+:1 K:BB ratio, but he needs to keep the hitters off base if he’s to return to the promise of 2016, as over a third of all base runners allowed have scored. Anastasio signed a similar deal to that of ‘Sawmill’ and could stick around until 2020.

GM Will Topham invested wisely as he crafted this rotation with the belief that the only way to keep pace with Bakersfield (and now Yuma and Duluth) is to field an equally effective rotation. Yes, it took a 5 year, $72M deal to bring Provost to the Front Range. Roger Bruce, Artie Tillman, En-gou, Bobby Watson and Rod Johnson were moved to bring in ‘Sawmill’ ‘Quagmire’ and López. Rojas was drafted 12^th overall as compensation in the 2015 draft – a pick that cost Aurora Ernie Brown (in 2014 and, well, Jacob Lily, who didn’t sign in 2014). It took some work, some patience, but should this group stay healthy, they just might have the stuff to pitch Aurora back to the PEC – providing the offense gets it in gear.

The schedule in May provides Aurora a chance to gain some momentum offensively behind this rotation. From June on, each month provides a pretty equal distribution of challenges. Will the Boy Wonder’s Master Plan pan out for Aurora? Time will surely tell, but one month into the 2018 season the answer appears to be yes.