PEBA Minor League Organizational Reports

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

The PEBA Minor League Organizational Reports are designed to grade each of the PEBA organizations’ minor league systems on the amount and level of talent likely to be produced from that system over the course of the next several seasons.

METHODOLODY

Each minor league system was graded in several key categories, and then ranked in each of many categories.  These organizational ranks were then combined to give each team a total grade.

We started by breaking down each position in the minor league system.  For our purposes, closers and middle relievers were grouped together as “relievers”.  1B and DH were also grouped together under “1B” and all outfielders, regardless of position, were grouped together as “OF”.

Each position in a teams system was graded in three categories. 

• Can't Miss – These are the top level prospects who are assumed to be on their way to being impact players at the PEBA level.
• Prospects – Players who at the very least should reach the PEBA level, even if they project as merely marginal players at the moment.
• Dark horse – These are the players on the fringe, who have enough going for them that there is at least some hope they could blossom into PEBA level players someday.  This is a measure of the depth of a team's farm system.

Certain criteria were used to determine which category each player belonged.  Players who did not meet one of the 3 above categories were simply considered organizational soldiers and no further grading consideration was given to these players.  In addition, players above the age of 26 were not considered for one of the three categories and are simply considered organizational soldiers, no matter how well they may scout.

After each team’s system had been graded according to the three categories, each team received an overall score in each of the 3 categories and was ranked accordingly.  In addition, each team was ranked by position and again ranked accordingly.

Next, each team was judged on how balanced a team was at collecting talent across the range of positions.  Teams may have ranked very high in two or three positions, but a lack of talent at two or three other positions may have left them with a mediocre score in this category.

Lastly, teams were graded on the age of their minor league systems.  Players over the age of 26 are well past being prospects, and in many cases are taking up space that could better be used to develop a younger player.  While it is necessary to keep a certain number of organizational soldiers to serve as emergency replacements and to fill positions out of necessity, an overabundance of aging players is considered a negative.  Teams were ranked in this category, with -1 points assigned for a player between the age of 27 and 29, and -2 points for each player 30 or older in their minor league system.  In addition, a team was assigned -1 point for each “broken player” in their minor league system.

To determine a final score, teams were ranked by:

• Level of talent at each position
• Level of “Can't Miss” talent
• Level of “Prospect” talent
• Level of “Dark Horse” talent
• Overall talent score
• Balance
• Age

These rankings were then averaged to come up an average ranking.

One category notably omitted was the won-loss record of the minor league teams.  We feel it is really a poor measure of the actual young talent in an organization, and the purpose of this report was to determine the level and quality of talent likely to be produced by that organization over the next several years.

Aurora Borealis

• Thornton FasTrax (AAA)
• Gatineau Balloonists (AA)
• San Luis Río Colorado Rapidos Blancos (A)
• Mokule'ia Oceanic (S A)

• Organizational Rank – First
• Average Rank – 3.57
• Strengths – Just about everything.  The Borealis rank in the top 5 in all but 3 categories.
• Weaknesses – Second base, where they rank tied for tenth, and age, where they are ranked tenth.

Top Hitting Prospect: Todd Hanna – 2007 draft, 23^rd pick, round 1.

Five injuries in three seasons has led to a reputation as a cupcake.  Still, when he is in the game, he hits and hits well.  Doesn't quite have the power for a corner infield spot, and maybe lacks the speed one might desire in the middle of the infield, but he is an on base machine.  Hit .328 with .409 OBP in 48 games at A, .318 with .408 OBP in 130 games at AA, and in his short 31 game stint at AAA so far has batted .268 with .397 OBP.  Good defensive skills and versatility make him useful anywhere on the infield, though his average arm and lack of power might eventually lead him away from the hot corner and to a more permanent home in the middle of the diamond.  With a very young and very talented group of infielders at Aurora, the Borealis can be patient with Hanna; don't expect him with the big club before 2011.

Spotlight On: Ricardo Gabriel – 2007 inaugural draft, round 49, pick 2, 1154^th overall.

With the abundance of talent in the Aurora system, it could be easy to lose track of a guy like Gabriel.  But Gabriel has batted .312 with a .386 OBP in 272 minor league games.  He plays well above average defense in the middle of the diamond, and has the arm to move to third where his defensive skills would probably earn him All-Leather awards.  A switch hitter, he has only hinted at the power he might have, hitting 34 doubles last season and 23 so far this season.  Has enough speed to keep a catcher on his toes.  Doesn't figure to get much of a shot at the Aurora lineup anytime soon, if ever, but could start on the infield of many teams.  Gabriel is a two-time minor league All-Star who has won 3 player of the week awards, one batter of the month award, and took home the NAFTA A Baja Cali League Outstanding Hitter Award in 2008 when he posted a 45.7 VORP for the season.

Newcomer Spotlight: Miguel Gutiérrez – 2009 draft, round 7, pick 9, 177^th overall.

Has batted .320 with a .384 OBP in 22 games since entering pro ball in June.  Has great speed and his patience at the plate and ability to work a pitcher make Gutiérrez an ideal leadoff man.  Has enough power to turn on a fat pitch, but power is not his game.  Has a plus arm in the outfield, but needs to work on getting better jumps on the ball.

Top Pitching Prospect: Bill Bradley – 2009 draft, round 1, pick 1.

Aurora ended up the first overall pick in the draft due to the complete insanity of Yuma (though some owners in the PEBA have referred to it as criminal negligence).  While Bradley has yet to duplicate his eye-popping college numbers, he has posted a nice 7-2, 2.62 mark, and he is well on his way to be a thorn in the side of Desert Hills owners for years to come.

Spotlight On: Lesley Robinson – Minor League Free Agent 10-21-2007.

After a mediocre campaign in 2008, Robinson is taking a big step forward in 2009.  After starting the season 6-0, 1.57 in 9 starts at A-ball and winning the pitcher of the month award for May, he has been promoted to AA where he is 3-1 2.32 after 8 starts.  His control has progressed nicely this season.  Southpaw who doesn't throw very hard, he relies on location and keeps the ball down.  An extreme groundball pitcher who keeps the ball in the park and let's his defense work for him.  Good size and great endurance.  Well on his way to becoming a solid back of the rotation type pitcher if he continues progressing.  Presently sidelined for 5 weeks with a hyper-extended elbow.

Newcomer Spotlight: Francisco Chávez – Minor League Free Agent 2-5-09.

19-year-old hard-throwing southpaw has rocketed through the Aurora minor league system this season, pitching only 6 starts at A-ball, and then 4 at AA before his promotion to AAA.  For a hard thrower, hasn't shown much ability to get the punch out yet, but that could come in time.  Great control, having walked just 21 in 127 innings so far this season while posting a combined ERA of 2.55 in his three stops.  Good at getting the groundball.  Knock on Chávez could be his smallish size and lack of endurance.

Aurora Summary – The gold standard of minor league organizations.  Built through good scouting, quality management, a well-thought out plan and shrewd trades.  In addition, having most of the available minor league free agents tripping over themselves to play for one of the two Evil Empires – either Aurora or Crystal Lake – helps as well.  Still, give credit where credit is due: the management here has been top-notch and the other contenders in Aurora's rich division will have a lot of work to do if they ever hope to just keep pace, much less make up ground.

Crystal Lake Sandgnats

• Evansville Tri-Staters (AAA)
• Brampton Camels (AA)
• El Cajon Virus (A)
• Mauna Loa Vulcans (S A)

• Organizational Rank – Second
• Average Rank – 5.79
• Strengths – Solid across the board, ranking in the top three in 9 of 14 categories.
• Weaknesses – Middle Infield, Age.

Top Hitting Prospect: Chris Holmes – 2008, round 1, pick 15.

In his short 1 ½ seasons in pro ball, Holmes has already won an All-Leather award at third base and been a two-time All-Star selection.  After spending last season at third base, he and his weak arm is back at second base where he is much more comfortable.  Despite the arm, has above average defensive skills and should be a top tier defensive player in the middle of the diamond.  Has been a solid contact hitter but has yet to really display the power that scouts believe will come.  Doesn't have speed, so will need to develop that power to become a solid option in the middle of the diamond when he arrives in Crystal Lake.  Hit .323 with .403 OBP in 67 games at A-ball this season before his recent promotion to AA.

Spotlight On: Jarrod Wright – Minor League Free Agent 12-21-2007.

Big first baseman in his second year of pro ball, and he is dominating A-ball with a .349 AVG and .423 OBP, as well as a 21.6 VORP through 55 games.  Hit .283 with a .379 OBP at SS-A last year.  Has no speed and is just competent with the glove, but shows good power and ability to work a walk.  Questions remain as to his ceiling, but definitely a player to keep an eye on.

Newcomer Spotlight: Paul Farley – Minor League Free Agent 3-18-2009.

17-year-old signed as a free agent in the offseason, Farley was off to a very good start at short season A-ball before being sidelined with a knee injury for a month.  At the time of his injury, Farley was batting .333 with 15 stolen bases in 22 games.  Has blazing speed, and scouts believe the power will come in time.  Great tools in the outfield; if there is any knock on him it is his barely average throwing arm.  Great eye at the plate.  Scouts believe he has all the tools to become a true stud performer at the PEBA level.

Top Pitching Prospect: Trent Roberts – 2008 draft, round 4, pick 11, 83^rd overall by Duluth Warriors.  Acquired from Duluth 6-14-09 along with OF Shawn Wagner in exchange for Marv Cooper and a 6^th round draft choice.

To say that the deal that sent Roberts to Crystal Lake was a completely one-sided affair would be an understatement.  The US government has struck better deals with Indian tribes than this.  Roberts hasn't dominated yet, but a lot of that has been the defense behind him, as one can see from his very high BABIP this season.  Right-hander who hits the low 90s, he should develop into a solid back of the bullpen option in years to come.

Spotlight On: Yoshitora Koyama – Drafted in 2007 inaugural draft, Round 28, pick 13, 661^st overall,

Struggled when sent to AAA as a 19-year-old: 6-11, 4.21.  Back at AA and a year older, Koyama was just a bit better at 10-12, 3.79.  Now, in his second season at AA, he appears to have his career on solid footing again: 9-3, 2.33, with a better than 4:1 K:BB ratio.  Can approach the mid 90s on the gun and has a six-pitch arsenal.  Has good stuff and above average control.  Questions remain as to whether he can keep the ball in the park enough to be successful at the next level.  Still young at just 21 years of age, but he could be taking the mound in Crystal Lake within the next two years.

Newcomer Spotlight: Ben Thomas – 2009 draft, round 2, pick 1, 25^th overall.

Considered one of the best relief pitchers in the 2009 draft, Thomas walked just 19 while striking out 122 in 97.1 innings over three seasons at the college level.  Excellent control and electric stuff that approaches triple digits on the radar gun.  Thomas has been a little hittable in his limited action so far, but that is to be expected as he acclimates himself to the pro game.  Has all the tools to be an excellent back of the bullpen option for years to come.

Crystal Lake Summary – Despite having a top prospect in Chris Holmes, the middle infield is a little weak, but not all that weak.  They have a little more age in their system than one would like to see.  Those are about the worst things you can say about this system.  Smartly built farm system, they have literally robbed some teams blind by trading several talentless hacks for top-flight prospects.  Tempe, we are looking at you first.  Much like Aurora, they are blessed with the ability to lure the best of the minor league free agent crowd.  Having a stacked PEBA team and a stacked farm system with minor leaguers beating down their door to get in has Crystal Lake in the position of having their cake and eating it too.

Fargo Dinosaurs

• Sioux Falls Lakota (AAA)
• Toronto Phantoms (AA)
• Bismarck Battleships (A)
• Kenai Traders (S A)

• Organizational Rank – Third
• Average Rank – 7.18
• Strengths – They top the board in Can't Miss type prospects.
• Weaknesses – Relief pitching, catcher.

Top Hitting Prospect: Ken Keddy – Minor League Free Agent, 12-08-2007.

Considered the #1 prospect in the entire PEBA by most scouts and analysts.  Has superb skills at the hot corner, with many scouts ranking his abilities right up there with the all time greats like Brooks Robinson.  Has a simply fantastic eye at the plate, he has already walked 119 times in 82 games and is on pace to walk 175 times at A-ball this season.  Despite a lackluster .237 average, he boasts a .488 OBP.  Just 18, so plenty of time for him to grow into the power that most scouts believe he has.

Spotlight On: Mike Harris – 2007 Inaugural Draft, round 43, pick 17, 1025^th overall by Canton Longshoreman.  Claimed off waivers by Fargo 10-9-2007.

The 22-year-old Harris was rushed to the big leagues by Canton in 2007 well before he was ready, and his career suffered for it.  Claimed off waivers by Fargo after the conclusion of 2007 season, Harris has begun to slowly rebuild his career in the more patient Fargo system.  Despite batting just .201 at AA Toronto last season, the Dinosaurs stuck with Harris.  He has rewarded that patience with a much better performance this year, batting .278 with a .364 OBP and 22.9 VORP.  In addition, Harris possesses great speed for a catcher and has already swiped 16 bases this season after swiping 11 last year.  In addition to his speed, Harris is a great handler of pitchers, but could use some work on his throwing arm.  Scouts like his eye at the plate, and though he doesn't project as a big power hitter he may find extra bases in the gaps with some frequency.  Missed a month of the season with a fractured wrist suffered in the Great Northern League All-Star game.  Two to three seasons away from the big time, but if he keeps progressing he could make an interesting addition to the Fargo lineup.

Newcomer Spotlight: David Hooper – 2009 draft, round 13, pick 5, 293^rd overall.

Switch hitting left fielder was not very high on many draft lists.  After all, he had only 17 at bats in 3 college seasons and collected a total of 4 hits.  Overlooked by many was the fact that 3 of those 4 hits were for extra bases, and 2 were home runs.  Hooper has fired out of the gate in fine fashion at SS-A Kenai, batting .309 with 3 home runs and 13 RBI while posting an .836 OPS.  His skills in the outfield are a bit below average.  He has above average speed and does the little things well.  His limited numbers might suggest he has more power and could be a better hitter than scouts are giving him credit for.  If the early returns are any indication, he could be worth keeping an eye on.

Top Pitching Prospect: Randolph Teague – Minor League Free Agent, 05-25-2008

Another great find by the Fargo scouting department, the 19-year-old southpaw from Australia smokes the gun at a blazing 101 MPH with regularity, with rumors that he has thrown several pitches at a remarkable 104 MPH.  He keeps hitters off balance with a change up that buckles knees.  After a 7-1, 2.81 mark in 19 starts at A-ball this year, he may have been rush a bit to AA.  So far this season at AA he is 8-7, 2.64 and has struck out more than a batter per inning, but he is still raw and has much work to do to improve his control.  Has the potential to dominate at the front end of a PEBA rotation, but he might be two to three seasons away.

Spotlight On: Alan Richardson – 2008 draft, round 3, pick 2, 50^th overall.

Left-hander who throws in the low 90s, the former third round selection has not quite lived up to expectations yet.  After a 6.30 ERA and 1.95 WHIP at SS-A last year, he has improved those numbers slightly, posting a 3.17 ERA and 1.55 WHIP so far this season.  The number of walks issued remains scary high, and Richardson has lots of work to do to if he is ever to live up to that third round selection.

Newcomer Spotlight: Gonzalo Romero – 2009 draft, round 9, pick 5, 197^th overall.

Romero's numbers at short season so far indicate the Dinosaurs may have found a real steal way down in the ninth round of this past draft.  Romero, a right-hander from Beeville, Texas, throws in the low 90s.  So far all he has done since being drafted is post a 5-1 record in 8 starts, with a 1.14 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.  He was also the Alaskan League pitcher of the month for June and selected to the Alaskan League All-Star game.  He opened his professional career with a 5-hit complete game shutout in his first start.

Fargo Summary – While the Dinosaurs may score weak in a handful of categories, the top shelf prospects they have in their system make up for any weaknesses.  If anything, those top shelf prospects give the Dinosaurs a great foundation upon which to build, and with a little attention to a couple of key weaknesses they could easily move to the front of the class in terms of future production from their well-stocked farm system.

San António Calzones of Laredo

• Joplin Red Racers (AAA)
• Monterey Sea Lions (AA)
• Drumright Tornadoes (A)
• Taku Winds (S A)

• Organizational Rank – Fourth
• Average Rank – 7.32
• Strengths – Depth across the board.  Catcher, third base, shortstop very deep.
• Weaknesses – Relief Pitching, lack of Can't Miss type talent

Top Hitting Prospect: Josh Shaffer – 2008 round 6, pick 17, 161^st overall.

Shaffer is considered the best prospect in the Calzones system.  Just 19 and in his second year of pro ball, this season Shaffer has hit 38 doubles in 308 at bats and is on a pace to hit 56 doubles for the season.  He has maintained a respectable .286 batting average, but has yet to display the plate discipline that would help him advance to the next level.  Leads NAFTA in doubles and extra base hits.  Above average skills at the hot corner, with an above average arm.  Look for Shaffer to possibly repeat the A level next year as the Calzones hope to see Shaffer improve his plate discipline and start to show some home run power before advancing him to AA.

Spotlight On: Matt McCormick – Minor league free agent 6-16-2008.

McCormick was undrafted in the 2008 amateur draft, and the Calzones signed him as a minor league free agent about 10 days later.  Scouts hate this guy and see him as nothing more than a marginal bottom-feeding organizational soldier until he eventually wears out his welcome.  But during his brief time at Taku last season he batted .288, which was enough to earn him the starting job at Drumright this season.  All he has done so far this season is bat .338 with a .399 OBP and earn himself a trip to the NAFTA All-Star game.  Despite 19 doubles so far this season, scouts do not project much power from McCormick, envisioning him as a singles hitter at best.  The high OBP so far this season could be an indicator that he might have better plate discipline than scouts have given him credit for.  His skills wearing the tools of ignorance are marginal at best, so his ticket to the next level will have to be his bat.  The Calzones have a deep group of prospects at the catching position, so McCormick will have to continue to shine if he wants to fight his way to the big leagues.

(Ed. Note: Read about what drives McCormick to prove the doubters wrong.)

Newcomer Spotlight: Rubén Rivera – Minor League free agent 4-13-2009.

Originally signed as a warm body to help at the lower level of the minor leagues, Rivera has opened some eyes with his power potential.  Has hit 10 HR with 44 RBI while maintaining a respectable .278 average in his first year of pro ball.  Good size has the Calzones hoping that the power will continue to increase.  Plays more than adequate first base, so he won't be pigeonholed into the DH slot anytime soon.

Top Pitching Prospect: Armando Pérez – Drafted 2007 inaugural draft, round 67, pick 5, 1589^th overall by Florida Featherheads.  Acquired in trade along with Pablo Salmarán and third round draft pick in exchange for Bill Taylor.

The cornerstone piece in the Bill Taylor trade, the southpaw Pérez throws 95-97 MPH heat and has a seven-pitch arsenal.  Has been a two-time pitcher of the month and a two-time All-Star at the minor league level.  Has compiled a 38-14 record with a 2.35 ERA in his minor league career.  Has the stuff to be great, but needs to harness the control before he can move to the next level.  Only recently promoted to AAA, look for Calzones to be plenty patient with Pérez and don't expect to see him in Laredo prior to September 2010.

Spotlight On: Edgar Fernández – 2008 draft, round 10, pick 17, pick, 233^rd overall.

Fernández, a last round pick in the 2008 draft, suffered through a very rough first season at SS-A Taku in 2008, posting a 3-11 mark with a 5.59 ERA in his first of pro ball.  Called up to Drumright in late May, Fernández struggled in his first two starts, but the Calzones were patient and let him continue to pitch.  In seven of his eight starts since that time, he has allowed either 1 or 0 runs.  In the last 8 starts, he has pitched 58.1 innings, allowed just 9 earned runs for a 1.39 ERA, has not allowed a home run, allowed just 35 hits, 17 walks and struck out 59.  Four times in those 8 games he has struck out 10 batters.  Continued success this season will likely lead to Fernández receiving a promotion to AA next season.

Newcomer Spotlight: Juan Valdés – 2009 draft, round 3, pick 20, 68^th overall.

Valdés is a big right-hander with great endurance who brings it in the 92-94 MPH range and has a five-pitch arsenal.  Drafted in the third round straight out of high school, Valdés has impressed so far and could easily find himself opening the season in Drumright next year.  But first he has to begin to pick up a few more strikeouts.  So far in seven starts to Taku he is 2-1, 1.60.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 8 innings in his first start for Taku, and since then has allowed a total of five earned runs over his last six starts, pitching 42.1 innings and allowing 5 earned runs for a 1.06 ERA.  He could easily sue for non-support, as Taku has scored a total of 11 runs in those last six starts.

San António Calzones de Laredo Summary – The Calzones have built their farm system up by strip-mining their PEBA team.  The philosophy appears to be one of numbers, with great depth being built up at many key positions, such as catcher and on the infield.  Top shelf prospects are few and far between, but the Calzones have built up a solid foundation based on numbers.  Despite consistently being outbid on top minor league free agents by the Evil Empires in Aurora and Crystal Lake, the Calzones have still managed to scrape together a few promising prospects from the outer fringes of said minor league free agent market, such as Matt McCormick and Rubén Rivera.  Not exactly studs like Paul Farley or Francisco Chávez, but serviceable players none the less.  Weaknesses remain, especially in the bullpen which remains rather thin, and in the fact that most of the team’s best prospects are still at least two seasons away from contributing at the PEBA level.  But a very solid foundation has been built here, and the fans in Laredo will have to hope their jackass GM doesn't piss it all away during their next playoff run.

West Virginia Coal Sox

• Mansfield Mohicans (AAA)
• Maine Lobsters (AA)
• Rosarito Monjas del Vuelo (A)
• Kauai Monsters (S A)

• Organizational Rank – Fifth
• Average Rank – 7.39
• Strengths – Second base, outfield
• Weaknesses – Depth could be an issue, lots of good front line talent, a little weak in dark horse types.

Top Hitting Prospect: Jorge Guavara – 2007 draft, round 1, pick 5.

Generally considered one of the five best prospects in the PEBA, Guavara has speed, power, and plays very good defense.  About the only knock on him might be a little hitch in his swing which leads to a few strikeouts and may cut down on his average somewhat.  But overall, he is a top-notch prospect with loads of upside.  Drafted straight out of his school and in his third year of professional ball, Guavara has finally started to exhibit the power that scouts expected when he was drafted so highly out of high school.  So far this season he has 28 doubles, 5 triples, 9 HR and 47 RBI while batting .257 at AA Maine.  Still has a bit of work to do on being a bit more patient at the plate and cutting down the strikeouts, but he's well on his way to eventual stardom in PEBA.  Expect a mid-to-late season 2011 debut for the highly talented Guavara.

Spotlight On: Carlos Hernández – 2008 draft, round 1, pick 17.

A solid contact hitter with a great eye at the plate, Hernández should be a solid on base type at the top of the batting order.  Has well above average speed and will steal some bags, but probably not enough to win stolen base crowns.  Plays great defense, has a plus arm.  Has no power at all, but that is not his game.  Could arrive at the PEBA level at nearly the same time as Guavara, giving the Coal Sox a solid outfield tandem for years to come.

Newcomer Spotlight: Ernesto Nevárez – 2009 draft, round 6, pick 2, 122^nd overall.

Nevárez steadily improved throughout his college career, but scouts were not sold on his overall hitting ability, and his lack of speed was another drawback, allowing Nevárez to fall all the way to the sixth round in the 2009 draft.  Mostly a middle infielder during his college career, he has been converted to third base by the West Virginia organization, a position that would seem to be a much better fit for Nevárez.  After hitting 10 HR with 36 RBI and a .343 AVG (not to mention a .410 OBP) during his senior season at the college level, Nevárez has hit the ground running in his first season of professional ball, having already notched 7 doubles, 3 HR, 14 RBI, and a .285 batting average in just over a month of play at short season Kauai.  May have more power than scouts give him credit for, but really needs to work on his plate discipline.  His defensive skills will be above average at the hot corner, and if he continues to hit for power he could climb the ladder rather quickly in the West Virginia organization.

Top Pitching Prospect: Maxime Taylor – Minor League free agent, 1-12-2008.

Tall southpaw who can bring it in the low 90s.  Endurance is a bit on the low side.  Just 19, appears to have taken a small step back this season at A-ball, but plenty of time to rebound.  Overall he is a bit weak to be considered a team's top pitching prospect, showing that this is an area where West Virginia will have to make some strides.

Spotlight On: Juan Flores – Drafted in the 2007 first year player draft, round 1, pick 3 by Connecticut Nutmeggers.  Was traded to West Virginia 07-19-2009 along with SP Tim Higgins, SP Jason Oliver, SP John Gaines, a 1^st round pick and a 2^nd round pick in exchange for SP Hamilton Cole, 2B Tom Kirkland and RF Bernardo Marín.

Southpaw who can scratch 90 once in a while, Flores was rushed to the majors by Connecticut, and is now considered a reclamation project by the Coal Sox organization.  Considering his terrible control this season at the PEBA level and at AAA, a trip back to A-ball to get his confidence back might be in order.

Newcomer Spotlight: Tony Castillo – 2009 draft, round 3, pick 11, 59^th overall.

Tall southpaw who throws in the mid 90s, Castillo needs a seeing eye dog to find the plate during his first season at pro ball.  Has decent stuff, the control he has displayed in the past should return after he gets his feet wet at the pro level.  Might take a couple of seasons, but should eventually be a decent back of the bullpen option someday.

West Virginia Summary – With potential studs like Guavara, Hernández and Suarez, West Virginia is well stocked with top shelf talent.  Not many teams can look down into their farm system and easily identify the top 3 players in their future batting order.  With the big club under performing and the Coal Sox in fire sale mode, an additional influx of talent at the trading deadline and in next years draft could easily boost West Virginia to near the very top of these rankings in the near future.  Considering the high round draft picks they have acquired in their trading deadline fire sale, it's a safe bet they will have one of the most talented minor league systems for the next several seasons.  With that type of talent in the system, it shouldn't take long for Coal Sox to rebuild and return to contention in the tough Dixie Division.

Arlington Bureaucrats

• Newport News Anchormen (AAA)
• Hampton Airborne (AA)
• Alexandria Macedonians (A)
• Kilauea Volcanoes (S A)

• Organizational Rank – Sixth
• Average Rank – 8.46
• Strengths – 1B, 2B, age
• Weaknesses – Outfield, lacks "Can't Miss" type talent

Top Hitting Prospect: Larry Brown – 2007 draft, round 8, pick 16, 184^th overall.

Brown has clearly shown that he can hit.  In 2007 at the college level he batted .326 with a .366 OBP in 89 at bats.  Over the course of 123 games at A-ball during the 2007 and 2008 seasons, he batted a mind-boggling .384 with a .416 OBP during 458 at bats.  In 70 games and 311 at bats at AA to finish the 2008 season, he batted .350 with a .366 OBP.  But a red flag should have gone up about his walk-to-strikeout rate, as he walked just 7 times while striking out 59 over those 311 at bats.  Another trip through AA might have been a smarter move in 2009, maybe giving Brown time to work on the plate discipline.  That lake of plate discipline has caught up to Brown at the AAA level in 2009, where he is batting just .263 with a .302 OBP, demonstrating that he might have been rushed just a little bit.  Still, he's a fine hitter who very well could and should improve upon his AAA numbers given a second shot at the level in 2010, with a possible emergence as Arlington's catcher of the future in 2011.  Has above average skills behind the plate and may have some moderate 10-12 HR power when he reaches his full potential.

Spotlight On: António Carbezola – 2007 draft, round 1, pick 16.

Carbezola was so highly touted out of high school that it is easy to forget that he is still just 20 years old.  His batting averages to this point have been somewhat disappointing, and he might have been set back by making the jump straight to A-ball out of high school before the PEBA implemented a short season league.  In 2007, playing in A-ball, he posted a .144 batting average and -19.2 VORP.  Ouch, yes, but remember he was just 18 and making a huge jump.  Demoted to short season in 2008 after the implementation of that league, António batted just .247.  Again, maybe disappointing, but a solid sign of development was that he walked 25 times while striking out just 14, showing great plate discipline.  In 2009 he is back at A-ball, and while he is batting just .218, he has posted a .331 OBP and has walked 56 times while striking out just 29.  He has also swatted 9 home runs, so the power is starting to come around as well.  Scouts love his potential, and his plate discipline could be off the charts when he is fully developed.  Good size, intelligent, and very coachable.  Plays an average first base but could improve with a little extra work.  Has a cannon for an arm, making him an interesting possibility as an emergency option at third base.  Has a ways to go, but he looks like he is slowly putting things together.  My hunch is another year at A-ball and everything will start to click, then a move up the ladder a step at a time, and in 2013 he makes the jump to the PEBA and by 2015 he could be one of the games biggest hitting stars.

Newcomer Spotlight: Rich Bryant – 2009 draft, round 5, pick 19, 115^th overall.

The recent 5^th round draft pick entered pro ball by tearing up short season for three weeks, batting .324 in 18 games to earn himself a quick promotion to A-ball.  Bryant has not disappointed at A-ball, where he has hit .293 in 30 games.  A very good defensive player who could help anywhere on the infield but his strong arm makes him a great fit at third base.  Needs to work on cutting down on the strikeouts, but if the early returns are any indication, he could be on the fast track to Arlington.

Top Pitching Prospect: Kevin Hollins – 2007 first year player draft, round 5, pick 2, 98^th overall by the Manchester Maulers.  Traded by Manchester to Arlington 11-02-2008 in exchange for 2B Juan Ríos.

Hollins struggled in his second season at A-ball, and it could have been he was not being challenged enough.  His rough 2008 season led to his subsequent trade to Arlington.  He was given just 4 starts at AA before being hurried on to AAA, and his numbers and development have suffered for it.  He has decent stuff and throws in the low 90s, but his development may be getting curtailed by the rush up to AAA.  Arlington should seriously considering returning Hollins to AA for more seasoning, though it's possible the damage to his development may have already occurred.  Arlington can also hope he rebounds during a second go-around at AAA next season, though they seem to be taking a real risk with his development.  His control needs some real work, and the AA environment might be the best spot for him right now.

Spotlight On: José Hale – Drafted in the 2007 inaugural draft, round 22, pick 15, 519^th overall, by the Kentucky Thoroughbreds.  Traded to Arlington Bureaucrats 11-14-2008 for pitcher Steven Norris.

Hale is just 18 and was quite young when drafted in the inaugural draft.  A hard thrower who hits 97 on the gun, he has electric stuff and was dominating hitters at A-ball before his recent promotion to AA.  He has struggled a bit at AA so far, and at such a young age it might have been better to have let him complete the season at A-ball before rushing the youngster to AA.  Control is his issue right now, and that would be better worked on at the lower level.  If he ever harnesses the control, he could be a dominating force at the back of a bullpen.

Newcomer Spotlight: Salvador Rodríguez – 2009 draft, round 1, pick 19.

This was a surprising pick in the first round of the most recent draft, given Rodríguez fairly pedestrian high school career and his inability to break a pane of glass with his fastball.  Has decent control, but he doesn't have great stuff and the ball gets hit in the air too much against him, not a terribly great combination.  The young 18-year-old has performed about to expectations for such a green and rather mediocre arm: 1-7, 5.48 in 8 starts at short season ball.  Will miss the next six weeks recovering from a back injury, and never really figures to be much more than a back of rotation starter in a best case scenario.

Arlington Summary – Some very good talent here, though the lack of true impact players really knocks Arlington down a notch.  Due to a subpar season at the PEBA level this year, having a high position in next season's draft should assure Arlington of being able to at least begin to fill the void in that area.  Overall though, this is a well-built system with lots of depth.