Monday, October 19^th, 2015
Gary Trundleburry, Shin Seiki Post

And so, after another 144-game marathon, we are left with the two richest teams in the LRS slugging it out for the right to advance to the Neo-Tokyo Cup. Not only that, but no team was within 10 games of them. A cynic might have claimed to have seen this coming. That would probably be more boasting than truth.

On one hand, you have the Evas. Being largely spared from the injury bug, Shin Seiki and its loaded roster was a lock to see the post-season. It would have taken a series of calamities to stop Shin Seiki, and that just didn’t happen. The cynic would have been right here.

On the other hand, the Shinkansen were by no means a lock at the start of the season. At the onset of the regular season, there were three teams expected to viciously battle day-to-day, game-to-game for the second spot in the SSG Wasei Junkesshou. Everyone was promised a grinding tug-of-war from Game 1 to Game 144. Why did that not materialize? Let’s take a look at the contestants to find out.

First among these once equals was the mighty Neo-Tokyo Akira. Neo-Tokyo was coming off their second playoff appearance in three years. They seemed poised to contend with a powerful offense, excellent backend relievers, and a solid (if significantly weakened by trade) rotation.

On the pitching side, the bullpen performed as expected, with Shiro Shimizu having perhaps the best season of any LRS closer. That was not enough to overcome a mediocre middle relief squad and an underperforming rotation. The loss of “Eager Beaver” Mizutani in their trade with Seoul this past off-season was just too much for the rest of the rotation to make up. “Bad News” Shiskikura had a very good year, but the rest of the rotation was a middling at best.

While the sum of the pitching staff was not great, it was roughly equivalent to the other expected contenders. The thing that knocked them completely out of contention was their offense. Going into the season, the Akira offense was feared because they boasted perhaps the best hitter in the LRS in 3B Nobuhito Hasegawa, who was to be supported by a long list of big bats. None of that worked out. Hasegawa was ineffective in May, nagged by injuries in June, dominant in July, productive in August, then had his season end and his career put in question by a severe labrum tear on the first of September. His support bats didn’t fare much better. CF Oliver Guzmán, fresh off setting the LRS hits record in 2014 (since bested by Katsunan Hiraoka), was injured almost the entire season not nearly the same player when he did play. 1B Yasuyuki Hashimoto continued to prove LRS scouts overly optimistic with his chronic underperformance. The net result of all of this was an offense ranked 5^th out of 6 SSG teams. With a mediocre pitching staff, that is just not enough to win in today’s SSG.

Next on the contention list were the small-market Kure Arsenal. The Arsenal were the trendy favorites to join the Evas in the playoffs amongst many pundits and league executives. They sported a great young offensive core with the likes of Matsusuke Hamada, Tomiji Watanabe, and António Pérez. Added to that was to be a monster bat in the form of Chinese DH Yong-zhan Hu. On the pitching side, their rotation was projected to be the second best in the LRS, with their bullpen being a big question mark. Overall, it was a very promising package, but they, too, failed to keep pace with the Shinkansen.

Offensively, things went pretty well. Their young stars were productive even if Watanabe didn’t quite live up to expectations. The only real hitch in their lineup was their big free agent acquisition, Hu. He was abysmal in his debut month of May, producing a .165/.294/.588 line. After getting his bearings in the LRS, he bounced back and was productive throughout the next four months of the season. As bad as he was early on, neither he nor the offense was the reason that the Arsenal failed.

The rotation also largely lived up to expectations, with Ichihara and Meshizuka being productive and everyone else being serviceable. It was the bullpen that was a smoldering wreck. One could dive into the individual failings of each pitcher or point to the meager 5.08 ERA or 1.62 WHIP that the squad mustered, but the statistic that stood out to me was Kure’s 17-28 record in one-run games. If that were reversed, the Arsenal would have been in the hunt to the end.

That brings us to the triumphant Shinkansen. Expectations were much higher for Hyakujuu going into the season than they had been in a while. One of be biggest free agent contracts in LRS history was given to Tetsuo Okazaki. He was to be the crown jewel in an already decent rotation. The offense wasn’t full of megastars but had few gaping holes. They appeared to be set at closer with newly acquired Pepe Rico, but the rest of bullpen looked like a weakness. The overall outlook was positive but no more so than either Kure or Neo-Tokyo. So how, then, did Hyakujuu triumph over its rivals? There are a few reasons.

The first is luck. They got off lightly on the injury front, a clear lucky break that gave them an edge over Neo-Tokyo. The second reason seems to be the trade made in July with the Fushigi Yugi Celestial Warriors. RF Tashiaki Tanaka and MR Yosai Kikuchi were added, giving Hyakujuu what turned out to be a big-time bat and a solid setup man. That upgraded the Shinkansen to a complete squad with a very good offense, solid rotation, and an improved bullpen. They had no one overwhelming strength but no glaring weaknesses, either.

GM John Leonard should take no small amount of satisfaction from the positive results of the moves he made. He was able to using his financial edge to bring the Shinkansen back to competitiveness. Some might call this the easy route. Others might argue that allowing one’s team and fans to languish in irrelevance for years while one vainly attempt to rebuild “the right way” through the draft is, in fact, easier. After all, if winning is not a requirement, there isn’t much pressure. That just isn’t an option in a big market, rabid fan situation like Hyakujuu. Leonard deserves credit for getting results.

So that is how we got here, but where are we going? The Evas-Shinkansen series looks to be a big challenge for Hyakujuu, but by no means a blowout. I see five factors being key to determining the SSG Wasei Junkesshou winner.

The first is the field of play. Both teams are at home in parks with big offensive statistical splits, though the sides differ. Genesis Park favors lefties, whereas Hiroshima Municipal Stadium favors righties. This is likely why ex-Evas Ton Nakamura and Hokusai Aoki have fared so well with Hyakujuu. Unfortunately for Hyakujuu, this series will be played exclusively at Genesis Park. The difference is significant, as Hyakujuu’s biggest bats (Aoki, Tanaka, and Nakamura) are righties. Shin Seiki sports a number of big-time left-handed bats (Takeuchi, Kakuta and the switch hitting Hiraoka). Whoever is playing well at the moment will of course matter much more than the field, but field of play itself is a real advantage for Shin Seiki.

The second is the home field advantage. Shin Seiki, like most teams, performed better at home with a .722 winning percentage vs. .639 on the road. Hyakujuu, interestingly enough, was a slightly better road team than home team (.597 vs. .569). Home field certainly matters, but perhaps not as much as one might think in this case.

The third is injuries. While Hyakujuu was lucky for most of the regular season, the injury bug struck CF Sadakuno Minami and MR Yasunari Yamasaki late. Yamasaki is not a critical loss, but he had been productive after a terrible May. His loss could hurt Hyakujuu with their limited bullpen depth. Minami was a key part of the Shinkansen offense the past couple of weeks, but his defense has been so terrible this year that they might actually be better off with Kawaguchi playing CF, even if his offensive output is less. So maybe this is a blessing in disguise for Hyakujuu. Shin Seiki, on the other hand, is missing their young star SS Mitsunari Yamada. Yamada won’t be ready unless the Evas advance to the Neo-Tokyo Cup. Veteran Evas utility player Razan Amano has been filling in admirably but is not up to Yamada’s level offensively or defensively. When you sum everything up, injuries look to be only a slight advantage to Shin Seiki at most.

The fourth and probably most critical element is how the teams have played against each other this season. The Evas teed off on Hyakujuu to the tune of a .290/349/.852 line, slightly better than they fared against the rest of the LRS. The most impactful element could be HR production that Shin Seiki has managed against Hyakujuu – 40 HR in 24 games (1.6 per game). The Shinkansen were the inverse of the Evas in this area, underperforming against Shin Seiki with a .273/.318/.739 line and managing only 20 HR (0.8 per game). This one seems to be a clear advantage for Shin Seiki.

The final determining factor I see in this series works in Hyakujuu’s favor: revenge. Hyakujuu’s roster is littered with ex-Evas. It is not hard to imagine them playing with a little something extra to prove to Shin Seiki that they made a mistake in letting them go. One could easily imagine a scenario where a returning Nakamura, spurned by the Evas in favor of flashy gaijinJon Wood, takes the entire Hyakujuu team on his back and carries them to the Neo-Tokyo Cup.

So that’s two factors strongly in Shin Seiki’s favor, a couple slight advantages, and a big chip on Hyakujuu’s shoulder trying to tip things the other way. It would seem that Shin Seiki is the favorite, but certainly no lock. This series has been a long time coming; it should be fun to watch.