Fargo 2010 Prospect Review






Find out who's who amongst Fargo prospects1/26/2011: Fargo, ND We’ll be nearing the annual Baseball America prospect rankings in a couple months, so I thought it would be worth taking a look at how last season’s top 10 prospects performed and to give my own top ten list for this upcoming season. Gauging prospects is a difficult task due to the question of weighing projection vs. performance. Baseball America’s rankings tend to lean toward the projection end; you’ll see younger players who maybe haven’t played more than a half season but the scouting reports have them propped up as potential future stars. My rankings will weigh performance a bit more than Baseball America does, but not so much as to ignore the potential ceilings of these players. So without further ado? The Baseball America Top Ten of 2010:


SS | Ken Keddy Age: 20 Bats/Throws: R/R Level: AA

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO VORP
87 290 75 13 0 5 110 40 .259 .465 .355 .820 .097 31.0

Keddy made the transition to SS this season from 3B and he looks to be staying there, which will drive up his value even more. A top Baseball America player two years ago, Keddy was second overall in the league rankings this past season. He’s continued to demonstrate amazing strike zone judgment, as noted by his walks and strikeout totals. His OPS is driven by his incredible walk rate. He’s yet to develop the power that scouts see him possessing but at age 20 he’s got a ways to go before we will rule out such a development. He spent some time reserved due to an injury – a ruptured disc that ended his season early – but will be ready to start the season a level up at AAA.

2B | Alonso Méndez Age: 21 Bats/Throws: R/R Level: Hi-A

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO VORP
73 261 80 9 2 4 31 47 .307 .391 .402 .793 .096 19.7

Méndez suffered a partially torn labrum early in the season and missed two months. When he returned, he demonstrated excellent on-base skills and great glove work at second base. He’s shown quality contact rates as a hitter and can be expected to hit for a good average going forward. His age and defense has him advanced for his level; his bat will determine whether he is simply a good player or a perennial All-Star. Power needs to develop as the isolated power is low but, similarly to Keddy, he’s young and it’s still too early to rule out a jump in power. He’ll advance to AA for next season and hope to avoid injury.

SP | Randolph Teague Age: 20 Throws: R Level: AAA

G GS W L ERA IP HA R ER HR BB K H/9 K/9 BB/9 WHIP VORP BABIP
19 19 5 6 3.67 100.2 78 42 41 8 64 118 6.97 10.55 5.72 1.41 13.7 .290

Teague has risen quickly through the minors, making it all the way to AAA last season despite only being 20 years old. He’s on the edge of being “rushed”, but his strikeout rates have been consistently above-average and this past season he did a phenomenal job of limiting hits. Teague struggles with control, as demonstrated by his walk rate;. He’s mediocre in limiting home runs and may have problems when he hits the majors initially because of this. Teague is scheduled to start the season back in AAA, but with the recent trade of SP Frank Helms, he may be the first starter to the bigs if an injury occurs to someone in the rotation.

1B | Mike Arnopp Age: 24 Bats/Throws: L/L Level: AAA

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO VORP
140 536 148 33 0 13 78 111 .276 .369 .410 .779 .134 28.4

Arnopp had a frustrating season. He’s yet to develop that explosive power we’ve always heard and, considering his position and age, it’s starting to become a concern, as he will have to mash to be relevant as a first basemen. He demonstrated good contact ability and a good eye at the plate that resulted in a solid on-base percentage. Arnopp was sent to Winter Ball to work on his game and early reports have been positive. Coupled with his strong performance at the end of the season (.916 OPS in August), the team is hopeful that he will breakout this year and force himself onto the major league club’s roster.

CF | Donald Payne Age: 23 Bats/Throws: L/L Level: Hi-A

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO VORP
103 393 117 20 3 6 36 52 .298 .361 .410 .770 .112 32.4

A former first round pick (2009), Payne tore a ligament in his thumb in August that ended his season prematurely. He’ll be ready to go for next season and will start at AA. The young centerfielder has hit for average and demonstrated good gap power. Payne also stole 34 bases to only 4 caught stealing. He’s the top centerfield prospect in a system that boasts a few other potential contributors at the position. Like others on this list, health will be important to Payne next season, as will developing his batting eye.

3B | Salvador Ruíz Age: 20 Bats/Throws: R/R Level: AAA

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO VORP
75 262 80 12 2 15 22 47 .305 .360 .538 .898 .233 26.1

Ruíz made it to the bigs last season, and the numbers above are his AAA totals before being called up. So to say the least, he was a major success considering he started out in AA (which he mashed at) and crushed AAA. There’s not much negative to say about Ruíz’s performance at AAA; he hit for average and power, and he played good defense. He’s shown some difficulty with regard to his walk rate and he struggled with it when he hit the majors, but the power is real and for a 20-year-old the sky’s the limit for how many HR he will hit in the majors.

2B | Héctor Valenzuela Age: 20 Bats/Throws: R/R Level: AAA

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO VORP
125 509 140 43 2 2 45 96 .275 336 .379 .715 .104 18.6

Valenzuela struggled in his second go-around at AAA. The very young-for-his-level second basemen showed regression in his power numbers and his walk rate, which was most troubling of all. He’s being demoted to AA where, at age 20/21, he’ll still be young for his level. The demotion will give Valenzuela the chance to regroup and improve his batting eye. With M?dez advancing to AA from Hi-A, Valenzuela will likely see some time at SS and 3B, which will help improve his versatility. It’s expected that at bats won’t be a problem despite having M?dez at the same level as both are considered top prospects in the system.

1B | Ronnie Russell Age: 24 Bats/Throws: R/R Level: AAA

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO VORP
76 306 82 16 3 11 26 66 .268 .327 .448 .775 .180 8.1

Russell is roughly the same age as Arnopp and presents an interesting case of production vs. projection. In this past season, Russell demonstrated a much more powerful bat than Arnopp but is not considered to have Arnopp’s power ceiling. A pleasant surprise to see the first baseman (who is considered one of the top fielders at his position within the organization) hit as well as he did. Russell will likely given a full season at AAA with the possibility of promotion (leapfrogging Arnopp, perhaps) to the bigs. He’ll have to improve his batting eye, as his OBP was somewhat poor.

RF | Francisco Mesa Age: 23 Bats/Throws: L/L Level: AA

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO VORP
91 351 97 7 0 11 25 70 .276 .331 .390 .721 .114 13.3

Mesa was an international signing that has turned into a solid prospect as he has advanced. Nothing spectacular yet, but we can see what the scouts like in the HR potential and solid contact skills. He’s developing into a good defensive corner outfielder and may see time at both LF and RF next season in AAA. He’s still young and may project as a solid contributor at the major league level assuming he can continue to hit for power and average. He’ll need to improve either his gap power or his walk rate (or both, if possible) next season if he hopes to get a shot at the bigs.

3B | Juan Silva Age: 23 Bats/Throws: R/R Level: AA

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO VORP
113 432 103 15 3 6 51 89 .238 .320 .329 .648 .090 4.4

Silva regressed harshly last season. His power and contact skills seemed to disappear. He’s going to repeat the level (AA) and will need a quick adjustment if hopes to be promoted by midseason. Silva will be entering his age 24 season and will start looking a bit old for his level (in regards to prospect status). Time is running out on the once promising third baseman.

The following will be my rankings for the upcoming 2011 season. Of the players reviewed above, Salvador Ruíz will not be considered for the list because he is slated to start at 3B for the major league squad, and in fact made it to the bigs for more than a cup of coffee last season. I’ll only make notes on players not commented on already. Listed ages will be ages as of the beginning of the 2011 season.

Top 10 Prospects for 2011:
1. Ken Keddy – SS, 20 years old (AAA)
2. Alonso Méndez – 2B, 21 years old (AA)
3. Randolph Teague – SP, 20 years old (AAA)
4. Vicente Savellano – SS , 23 years old (AAA)
5. Mike Arnopp – 1B, 25 years old (AAA)
6. Pablo Cisneros – SP, 21 years old (AAA)
7. Ronnie Russell – 1B, 25 years old (AAA)
8. Simon-Olivier Lavoie – CF, 23 years old (AAA)
9. Donald Payne – CF, 23 years old (AA)
10. Hector Valenzuela – 2B, 21 years old (AA)

Savellano has risen quickly through the system and really broke out last season, rising two levels (Hi-A and AA), and will start next season in AAA. Relying on his excellent bat control, his batting average spiked into the upper .300s. He demonstrated good power in AA for a middle infielder and will likely share time at SS, 2B and 3B next season, improving his flexibility.

Cisneros dominated AA as a twenty-year-old, posting a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio and limiting homeruns. He’ll be in AAA and, along with Randolph Teague, represents the next wave of starting pitching prospects within the system.

Lavoie’s position on this list says more about his age and ability to do perform adequately at an advanced level (AAA) despite his age. His 23.5 VORP in AAA last season indicates he still has a chance to be something special at a position that is considered weak offensively.

Releated

West Virginia Nailed it!!!

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