Manchester Boutique
Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Shortly after the Manchester Maulers concluded their season, a confidential player assessment memo, apparently authored by General Manager Morris Cooley, surfaced. The assessment memo offers frank, unvarnished evaluations of the players who made up the 2015 Maulers. Cooley’s assessments are at times surprising (he insists that rookie third baseman Dave Watts was one of the top players at his position in the Imperial League but was badly hurt by playing his home games in cavernous Whiten Field), at times glowing (Cooley declares closer Leith Geldart “one of the most dominating young pitchers in the PEBA”), and at times brutal (Cooley denigrates 2013 IL Wunderkind Carlos Reyes as “washed up”).

The memo also appears to contain some hints about off-season plans that Cooley, who is famously oblique, intends to pursue. His frequent laments about the odd configurations of Whiten Field, for example, suggest that he may be mulling a radical ballpark renovation. All told, this memo can be seen as both a post-mortem on the Maulers’ recently concluded 77-85 season and as a potential preview of the coming direction of the franchise.

Cooley, as is his wont, refused repeated inquiries for comment on this article. Part I of Cooley’s memo, which assesses the Maulers’ pitching staff, appears below. Part II, which assesses position players, will appear in the pages of the Boutique in coming days.

2015 Manchester Maulers Pitcher Assessment Report
by Morris Cooley, Manchester Maulers General Manager
CONFIDENTIAL

Executive Summary:
Internal projections before the 2015 season began showed the Manchester Maulers winning between 81-85 games. When in-season personnel decisions (especially the trades of Yoritoki Ando, Juan Suárez, and Augusto León) are taken into account, the Maulers’ 77 victories are consistent with those projections. While there were, as always, unexpected difficulties in the form of injuries and unanticipated performance declines, 2015 saw the emergence of a new young core of pitchers and position players who could propel the Maulers into playoff contention as soon as next season.

Player Assessments:
Pablo López: In many ways the Maulers’ most consistent pitcher, López proved to be a viable PEBA pitcher, albeit one with limited upside. López improved over the course of the season, registering ERAs of 3.95 and 3.21 during the months of August and September. Command of his five pitches led to fewer than 3 BB/9IP and he managed nearly 7 K/9IP, but his 21 homeruns allowed is worrisome, especially as López is an exceptional groundball pitcher with a splitter that is well above average. Given his profile and performance thus far, López’s upside would appear to be that of a #4 or #5 starter on a good team (although I wonder how he would perform if he didn’t play half of his games with that infernal short porch in right field).

Anastasio López: He was well on his way to establishing himself as one of the better young starting pitchers in the PEBA before going down for the season on June 20 with an elbow injury. The prognosis for his recovery is good; López should be set for spring training. While his strikeout rate remained solid and his command continued to sharpen, it’s worth keeping an eye on López’s unfortunate tendency to surrender the long ball (14 in just 87 innings pitched).

Jonathon Castor: Castor made solid progress in his first full PEBA season. I was worried about his multiple arm injuries, which limited him to just 29 innings pitched last season. Castor did have a shoulder flare-up in June, but he came back to finish strong in the second half. He has positively filthy stuff, with a fastball/curveball combination that generates copious numbers of strikeouts. I remain concerned about his mediocre command and the possibility of further arm issues; still, his upside is very high.

Jimmy Brandt: As advertised, Brandt has advanced stuff and strong movement on his four good pitches, but little command. Nearly 5.5 BB/9IP is way too many; he’ll need to find better checkpoints during his delivery if he’s going to sustain success in the PEBA.

William Ferguson: Acquired from Fargo mid-season in the Ando deal, Ferguson employed smoke and mirrors effectively until August, at which point his middling stuff and fly ball tendencies caught up with him. He’s still young (just 24 years old) and he did show swing-and-miss ability in the minors, so there is the possibility that he can make the transition. Still, he’s probably a depth starter going forward.

Patrick Hunter: Came back pretty well from a serious back injury in 2014 – a season that was superficially a breakout before getting hurt, but the troubling peripherals (declining strikeout rate, ascending walk rate) returned in 2015. The electric stuff that made him an advanced prospect is pretty well gone and his command is in freefall. I can’t see him doing much better than he did in 2015. It will be hard to justify the high contract demands that his agent faxed to me last week.

Desmond Barnes: Reacquired mid-season from Florida. Barnes is who he is: a solid mid-level starter who won’t walk many batters and relies on his defense to record outs. I don’t see him in the rotation on Opening Day, but he has value as a swingman out of the bullpen.

León Rivera: The fans were happy to have him back, but he’s the same disappointing pitcher I made Dudas trade after the 2007 season [ed. note: Reference to former Maulers GM and current Head Scout Jeff Dudas]. I could sign him cheaply to assuage the fans, but I could also find 10 pitchers better than him in the Liga Dominicana de Béisbol Invernal right now.

Sergio López: Rookie pitcher who made good use of his opportunities this summer. Good movement on his pitches helps alleviate the problems caused by his average stuff. His upside is middle relief, where he might be serviceable for a couple of seasons.

Charlie Mitchell: He kicked around the system for a while, not showing much, but exploded in his age 25 season at AAA, striking out more than a batter an inning and really harnessing his baffling assortment of seven above-average pitches. He continued his streaking performance in Manchester over 24 innings. I envision him working out of middle relief next season.

Nicolas Lavigne: Picked off the waiver wire from Charleston. He features a fastball/slider combination that leads to a high strikeout rate. He struck out more than a batter an inning over the course of the season. The trouble is that his 3^rd pitch – a show-me changeup – does little to keep hitters off-balance. With only adequate command, his middling arsenal of pitches can’t bail him out of trouble.

Takahiro Masuda: Also chosen from the waiver wire, but for reasons that are now difficult to recall. There is little here to recommend him; a low 90s fastball and a thoroughly unimpressive cutter are highly unlikely to carry him to PEBA success. Might stash him at AAA next season.

Mario Martínez: Signed to a two-year deal prior to the start of the 2014 season. He was coming off a very strong stint in Palm Springs that included a 2013 All-Star appearance. For whatever reason, Martínez never lived up to our expectations. His strikeout rate, which was well over a batter an inning with the Codgers, cratered over the last two seasons, probably due to his fastball/splitter combination becoming much more hittable. He wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t the setup guy we thought we were getting. He’s off to free agency, where he will not be counting us as one of his suitors.

Ryan Dawson: He’s carved out a niche for himself over the last couple of seasons. Although Dawson worked as a starter for three seasons – including his 2012 All-Star year and, memorably, a couple of great starts during our playoff run – he has settled in as a very good, if not quite elite, middle reliever. His still filthy slider produces copious numbers of strikeouts, but its tendency to flatten out at the most inopportune times means that Dawson ends up being strangely hittable over the course of the season. He’s under contract for 2016 and is a viable candidate to fill the setup role.

Leith Geldart: Simply one of the most dominating young pitchers in the PEBA. His emergence over the last two seasons allowed us to move both León and Suárez and place Geldart into the closer’s role that he coveted since arriving in Manchester. Given the chance to close over the second half of the season, he didn’t disappoint. Geldart’s fastball/curveball combination is lethal, as evidenced by consistently high strikeout rates and the inability of hitters to make solid contact. He’s still young (27 in January) and under team control for another three seasons. Geldart is the sort of young pitcher who can be built around.