Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger

April 4, 2022: Aurora, Colorado – After a successful spring campaign that saw Aurora finish 16-8 (a game back of Bakersfield, Crystal Lake and the improved Duluth Warriors), the team has returned to The Front Range for the last few days of work-outs at Northern Lights Park, before heading out to the Biggest Little City to open the season with the Zephyrs.

With manager Koki Kojima still peddling dragon fruit on the island of Kaua’i, interim-manager/GM Will Topham has shown a hint of ability over the spring, but Wednesday’s game will mark the chance to show for real just what he’s made of. In the meantime, the team has announced the roster that – barring any last second trades, will start the season. We will admit this up front, for you’d expect this throughout this piece, you’ll hear this often – No surprises here.

Aurora’s title run was a blend of hitting and starting pitching, and they look to have the same collection of guys heading into 2022 that they walked off Farmer’s Field with.

Starting Pitching
Michel Provost will be entering his fifth season as a starter and his fourth as Aurora’s undisputed Ace. Over the past three seasons he’s amassed a 49-18 record with a 2.34 ERA – all while striking out 648 and walking just 45. He looked equally sharp this spring – despite giving up the only 2 HR the starting five surrendered this spring.

Joining Provost, starting his first full-season at Aurora, is Randy Smith. ‘Tugboat’ was the pitching hero of the post-season and his spring numbers resemble the effort he put out there last October. In Provost and ‘Tugboat’ Aurora has the 1-2 combo they had last season – before ‘Zoom’ Barker’s injury (that subsequently led to his retirement). Aurora would be thrilled with the 2.21 ERA Smith posted in his 15 regular season starts with the Borealis after the trade from San Antonio.

The #3 starter will be ‘Massacre’ Jiménez who will be starting his third season in the rotation. Arturo missed the post-season run with a torn triceps that the coaching staff hope won’t set him back in his never-ending struggles with his control. After walking 124 in his first season – to lead the league, he cut that number to 90 (in 5 fewer innings) and many experts are predicting big things from the hard-throwing righty. Anastasio López, who will be the fourth starter this year (as Aurora looks to split the two lefties in the rotation), has very quietly become one of the most consistent arms in the league. Outside his shaky second season in Aurora, where he posted a 5.04 ERA (in 2017), Lopez has posted a sub 4.00 ERA in each of the past four seasons, posting a career 3.63 ERA. His 166 K’s last year snapped a three-year streak of 200+ K’s.

The wild card of the rotation is one-time ace Martín Francisco. ‘Sawmill’ has struggled to stay healthy the past three seasons, and his numbers have been mediocre at best since his return from the elbow surgery he had that kept him out of the 2019 PEC. Last years 4.41 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .316 BABIP were all career highs – by a wide margin, and coaches and management alike are concerned that the blades are no longer so sharp on this ‘Sawmill’. Then again, his stellar performance in last season’s playoffs – particularly against Florida in game 4 of the PEC, provides the team with some hope. 4/5’s of this years starting rotation are under contract for next year – the one remaining 1/5 being Francisco and his $10.5M team option for 2023. With a number of young guys likely lined-up for arbitration at the season’s end (Hello ‘Massacre’, Hello Paul Carlisle, Hello Pedro Ferringo), that $10.5M becomes über-important. With ‘Sawmill’ turning 34 towards the end of the season, we may be witnessing the swan song of one of the best in Aurora Blue.

Relief Corps

The most maligned group on the team has been the relievers – and yet, like Francisco and López, they stepped up in the playoffs and kept Aurora in position to win games late – the hallmark of last year’s championship. As expected, the ‘pen will be anchored by Bryant Burris, who the team crosses their fingers and hopes will show a bit more consistencey on the mound. His 291 career saves and 2.71 ERA went further in the teams mind as they offered him a new contract extension during the off-season, than did his 4.10 ERA, 9 loses and 9 blown saves did.

The leftie set-up man will be Gerardo Rivera, who had an atrocious spring – there are rumors that he’s displeased with the teams efforts to negotiate an extension and has cut off future talks with the intent to test the free agency waters – despite same-said rumors suggesting offers were greater than Burris’ salary. The right-handed set-up guy will be John Gray, who had an impressive rookie campaign (3.77 ERA, 37 K in 29 IP), and the coaches are very pleased with the work he did in winterball to improve his overall efforts on the mound.

Ryan Holbrook will be the 7^th inning guy, looking to bounce back from a difficult 2021 that saw his ERA jump nearly 1.5 points. The ‘Stork’ posted a 1.69 ERA in 16 spring innings, striking out a team high 25 batters, while walking but 1. Also returning and having a nice spring was right-hander Félix Peña, who improved markedly in his second season at Aurora, posting a 3.80 ERA last year. He spotted a 1.83 spring ERA with more K than IP as well.

Rounding out the ‘pen are a pair of arms that may not last the season in the ‘pen – much less in Aurora. Christian Murdoch who, after a significant contribution to the 2019 title, has become a journeyman, role-wise, and will begin 2022 as he did 2021 – in the bullpen, but on-call. 13 BB amd 10 K in 15 IP are not encouraging numbers for the one-time ‘hottest trade inquiry’ in the system. The 12^th man on the staff is one-time top-prospect Edgardo Rojas. A combination of poor performance when given the chance and being on a team with a tough rotation to crack has made it near impossible for young arms to stick on The Front Range. Rojas will open the season on the 25-man roster, more because he is out of options than his 3.78 spring ERA and 17 K, 4 BB in 17 IP. It’s believed the Borealis are actively pursuing a trade.

Catcher

For the first time in the Topham Era, Aurora finds themselves without an All-Star caliber catcher. Gone is Scott Vinson, ending a stretch that saw Wilson Berry, Bob Keller and Vinson man the tools of ignorance for Aurora. The job is now in the hands of Rusty Butler who was drafted specifically for this day. Butler started his minor league career strongly, but has drifted some over the past few seasons. Last year – his first full in Aurora Blue, saw him start 66 games and hit .233. Butler needs to improve upon that if Aurora is to challenge again – especially with the power drop-off with Vinson’s departure. He’s likely (unless a trade is made) to get a couple of years opportunity here as Aurora’s next best bet in the minors – Fernando Negrete, is at least two seasons away. Long-time Aurora-native and back-up, Sergio López, returns to man that role full-time. Lopez is a career .279 hitter in 109 starts.

Infield

No changes here, as the starters around the horn remain the same – Rivera at first, Foster at second, Giles at short and Britt at third. If the spring is any indicator, the 36-year old Rivera – the defending SL Batting Champ, has no intentions of slowing down, as he posted a .408 spring average. Foster, who slid backwards in 2021 after finally showing his long awaited promise in the 2020 campaign, was hitting .333 this spring before an ankle sprain sidelined him. He is expected to miss the opening week of the season, and may get a week’s worth of rehab games at AAA.

SS Nick Giles by far struggled the most this spring. The 2021 SL RBI Champ (115) enters his fourth season as the starting shortstop, and he’s been a Jekyl and Hyde type – .325 in 2019, .274 in 2020 and .303 last year. His HR and RBI totals last year were both career bests, and Aurora could sure use another dose of that in 2022. Speaking of showing promise, Mike Britt returns as the regular 3B. Over his first 5 full seasons Britt has 121 HR and 430 RBI, but only once has he managed to get his average over .260. Britt is 27-years old, and certainly entering his prime, and the .300 average with 30 HR and 100 RBI promise continues to elude him. He did hit .340 this spring, and he had a team high 3 HR, so perhaps promise isn’t far away.

Rounding out the infield will be Josh Ligonier and Juan Toro. Ligonier will be starting his third season on the 25-man roster and aside from a stretch in 2020 where he out-performed incumbent Miguel Salinas and, in part, stimulated his inclusion in the ‘Zoom’ trade, he’s been mostly relegated to rotational substitution and an occasional pinch-hit. In 238 games these past two years he has 29 HR and 126 RBI, while playing outstanding defense – primarily at first. Toro will also be making his third straight appearance on the 25-man roster, though that will be delayed as he’ll start the year on the DL with tendinitis in the wrist. Toro hit .326 in 42 games last year and forced the ‘Gypsy’ to the bench down the stretch. One thing Toro has done is perform when he’s been called upon – even getting a few starts during last year’s playoff run. Toro is a career .273 hitter in 135 starts. Neither Ligonier nor Toro have shown much to be excited about this spring.

With Foster and Toro begining the year on the DL, Gabe McIntyre and Rod Martin will get a chance to begin the year on the major league roster. For the ardent seam-heads in Aurora, McIntyre is known as the ‘Second-Sacker who wasn’t traded’ last year as GM Will Topham dealt Jack Speed and John Dickson to Texas. Many felt McIntyre was robbed last year as his .365 average wasn’t awarded with the GBB Player of the Year. McIntyre spent the winter working on his shortstop play, to improve his versatility – he’s already very accomplished on the right-side, and the confidence gained has shown this spring as he’s hit .390 and hit 2 HR – not something expected from the more gap-to-gap hitting Gabe. Aurora had hoped he would force their hand during spring, and in a sense, he did – though they do get a reprieve with the Foster injury. McIntyre will start at 1B in the opening series, with Rivera playing 2B – the coaching staff going for the ever so slightly better defensive alignment.

Rod Martin, who has hit .323 this spring, on the other hand was expected to be another year out, as injuries have slowed him down. Most of his ABs last year were at AA Gatineau, where he hit .285 with 11 HR. He’s accomplished at most infield positions, though he’s widely been known to shun 1B because ‘I hate holding runners while that ball rifles down the line’. Martin is expected to man the back-up role until Toro comes back – expected to be 2-3 weeks, then Aurora will have to make a hard decision. McIntyre has options left, so we can expect he will be demoted. Martin, Toro and Ligonier are all out of options, so something will have to give.

Outfield

Last season, Pedro Ferringo hit .317 and missed qualifying for the batting race by 4 AB. River Pope hit .316. Matt Ferrell .315 with 18 HR. Paul Carlisle hit .282 with 17 bombs. Mike Hale hit only .260, but stole 62 (out of 78 attempts) bases. What’s not to like about this group? With an average age of 26 – nothing! And they all had solid springs – Carlisle hit .360 with 3 HR, Ferrell .418, Ferringo .378, Hale .341 and Pope – maybe the best pure hitter in the group, at .278. All great defensively – save Ferringo, which is a great thing for him the PEBA employs the DH. Nothing will change here as the season starts, as the same successful rotation from last year will be employed this.

Aurora has four major league quality OFs at AAA, all of whom got time this spring – though none were very noteworthy. Federico Olivas, Chandler Wright, Lawrence Justice and Wilson Mercado will all begin the year at AAA, with Mercado being the first call-up. Mercado got into 10 games during the regular season of 2021 and hit 3 HR with 10 RBI while posting a .371 average. Notably he had a pair of key RBI hits in the playoffs in Matt Ferrell’s place as an injury replacement.

Three Things to Ponder
The Borealis may be reigning champs, but just winning their division is a chore, much less the Sovereign League. The Bears added some much needed offensive punch in ‘Bingo’ Suárez and Boyd Johnson – if not at the cost of a weakened defense. At 35, ‘Bingo’ does not appear to be slowing down at the plate, but his defensive range is mediocre – a liability for the groundball-inducing rotation the Bears possess. Crystal Lake has added Vinson – and we know what that storyline looks like, and Ieyoshi Ishikawa (formerly of New Jersey). Last years .309 was the lowest for Ishikawa in the past 6 years. Shin Seiki added Matt Carter, adding to their power brigade and improving their outfield defense. While their three biggest rivals all improved themselves, Aurora stood pat – minus a catcher. Is last year’s team good enough to win this year? Three things to consider:

1. Will they get enough offense from the catching position?
The coaching staff gives Rusty a slight edge over Vinson in his ability to put the ball in play and hit the gaps, though they also concede that Vinson was a more patient hitter. Vinson gave Aurora a career .264/.336/.431 – averaging only 70 K and 60 BB over a full season. Butler may be adept at putting the ball in play – he, too, strikes out infrequently, on average, but there is a power drop-off. Hoping the 27-year old Butler puts it together offensively – perhaps meeting the .250, 7 HR and 41 RBI that Vinson posted last year, is at least a reasonable result. López has been an adequate back-up over the years as he’s bounced back and forth up the interstate. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Aurora is truly weakened is behind the dish.

2. Can the Rotation remain healthy?

Topham went into the post-season looking ahead to the thought of placing the mostly ineffective ‘Sawmill’ in the ‘pen, and opening 2022 with Provost, ‘Zoom’, ‘Tugboat’, ‘Massacre’ and Lopez, with both Francisco and Murdoch as a pretty decent insurance policy. ‘You can never have enough pitching’ he’s famous for saying and with the staffs at Bakersfield, Crystal Lake and Shin Seiki (not to mention Yuma), Aurora can’t afford to miss a beat here and lose anyone for a prolonged period of time. With the trade of HC Yong to Lupin, perhaps Aurora’s best arms in the minors are all starting at Class A San Luis Río Colorado. We’ve seen Aurora pull the trigger on pitching deals at the deadline the past two seasons – as well as in the past. Will they be looking again for a standout arm? Will they be needing a standout arm? For now, the five starters the have ain’t too shabby, but an extended DL stint for just one of the 5 could be very costly for their title defense.

3. Will Aurora turn up the power?

The outfield hit 47 HR last season (50 if you count Mercado’s 3) – with Ferrell and Carlisle providing the bulk of that (35). The starting four on the infield hit 64 – including a career best 11 out of Rivera. All told, Aurora had 138 HR last season, which ranked 14^th in the SL and 30^th overall – they’d had been dead last in the IL. Losing Vinson won’t help, but Aurora has to find a bump in power – HR power. They were third in the SL (6^th overall) in doubles and (less importantly) 7^th in triples (12^th overall), so their overall power isn’t too bad – they finished 3^rd in SL SLG (4^th averall), leading to the 2^nd most R/G in the SL. Still, this is a team that made up for a lack of power with speed, but in the ever-escalating blood bath that is the Sovereign League, that’s not going to be enough. Aurora has one true power threat in the minors, and that’s Mercado. Could we perhaps see a trade of one of their 5-man outfield rotation as to bring Mercado into the fold?

Most experts have the Borealis finishing first or second – behind Bakersfield, and we tend to agree with that prognosis. A few have them finishing 3^rd – even fourth, but baring any unforeseen occurances, it’s hard not seeing this team playing playoff games at Northern Lights come October. How deep into the late Fall they go will depend on how stingy the arms are and how powerful the bats may be.