Thursday, August 20, 2009

Not much to get excited about as far as the pitching at AA Monterey. For the most part, the same cast of characters will return next season. No promotions are expected to AAA from this pitching staff. Recently signed starter Doug Stanley, helping out at AAA right now, will likely be demoted to AA next season. Reliever Sergio Hernández could be the odd man out if that is the case.

About the only thing positive about the Sea Lions rotation next season is that they will all be experienced at the level and could provide slightly better results. There is not a single prospect among the bunch, and most are likely to be purged from the Calzones system within two seasons. For 2010, Monterey will be the sandwich level as far as pitching is concerned. There will be prospects at AAA and prospects at Hi-A, but the cupboard is bare in Monterey. The one bright spot may come at midseason, when Jeremy Hann should return from injury and will likely be asked to begin resurrecting his career at AA.

In the bullpen, the same cast of characters returns with the possible exception of Hernández. There are a couple of interesting pitchers in the bullpen, namely Chris Cochran and Tanner Lawrence . Cochran will be just 19 next season and has already pitched nearly 3 full seasons at A-ball before his recent promotion to AA. He will be asked to continue in the closers role. Tanner Lawrence is a real dark horse to ever make it as a pitcher in the PEBA, but he does throw as hard as 94 MPH and can be tough when he is on. Already 23, but has been rushed from the college level to AA with barely 32 innings and some ugly numbers under his belt in the lower minors. Lawrence’s quick ascension shows just how desperate things are in the bullpens of the Calzones organization.

Bob Keller will return as the primary catcher at AA. The Tempe Knights Hancocked him straight from college to AA in a few short months in 2008 (which shouldn’t surprise anyone), and the Calzones left him at AA for this season to keep from wrecking his confidence. The numbers weren’t completely terrible, but he was in well over his head. Hopefully the experience results in a much better season next year before an eventual move to AAA in 2011. This year’s backup at AA, Rodrigo Aguirre, is nothing more than an organizational soldier who has some decent defensive skills behind the plate. Aguirre is likely to be demoted all the way back to SS-A-ball unless injuries create a need at another level. Hi-A Drumright Tornadoes catching phenom Matt McCormick will bring his Herculean work habits to Monterey, where he will spend a season as Keller’s understudy before advancing to the AA starting role himself in 2011.

Alonso Montáñez and Takahiro Kamida are likely to depart in one way or another, either through trade or release, as the Calzones attempt to get their glut of young infielders some playing time at the lower levels. Look for the power-hitting duo of Jiro Asai and Rubén Rivera to both make the jump to AA. It was thought both might benefit from another year at A-ball, but the logjam on the infield is too great at the lower levels. Both players are likely to need to repeat a level at some point; the thought is that maybe they struggle this season at AA and get a chance to repeat it in 2011 if they can hold off the prospects coming up behind them. For 2010 they will share the 1B/DH duties at Monterey.

At 2B, Miguel Angel González will return. There was much internal debate as to whether Gus Wilson or González would get the promotion to AAA; in the end it was decided to go with the slightly older Wilson after his game showed improvement over the latter half of the season. After being bounced all over the levels during his first two seasons, the Calzones would like to see how González progresses if given a little bit of stability.

At SS, Dan Howard should return to the lineup in Drumright in about another week and the Calzones hope to see him finish the season strong and be ready to make the jump to AA next year. SS Adrián Romero has more plate appearances than Howard at the lower levels, but Howard is two years older and the Calzones would love to see Romero really begin to show some consistency before moving him along.

At 3B, Josh Shaffer has forced the Calzones hand and earned the promotion to AA for next season. Shaffer has batted .343 in July and .327 in August, and has shown much better discipline at the plate with 11 walks versus 20 Ks the last two months after walking 11 times and striking out 40 over the first three months of the season. Shaffer is on a pace to hit .293 with 52 doubles, so it is hard to hold him back (especially with the logjam on the infield forming behind him). Shaffer is still young and may have to repeat a level at some point – maybe AA – but for now he has earned the promotion.

Heath Palmer will assume the utility infield role next season, but don’t let the utility role fool you; the Calzones still think Palmer can become a decent player. Look for Palmer to start about twice a week at second base, once each at 3B and SS, and maybe once a week in the outfield as the Calzones groom him for a possible super utility role. An occasional cameo at DH to keep him in the lineup may happen as well. Despite not having a position, the Calzones still hope to get Palmer about 400+ at bats.

In the outfield, look for José Maldonado to return for sure. Completely overmatched after being rushed to the level out of necessity, Maldonado has batted just .211 but has shown a great eye at the plate with 57 walks and a .324 OBP. He has hit .350 in August to give some hope that he is finally getting adjusted. Just 21, big things are expected of Maldonado with the bat in 2010 as he repeats the level. A below average fielder, Maldonado is destined to eventually be a DH if he makes the PEBA level, but for now expect Maldonado to man left field.

CF Alexandre LaRouche will make the jump to AA and be given the centerfield job. Missing most of the second half of the season with an injury, LaRouche still has more than 600 at bats under his belt in two years of pro ball and was tearing up A-ball with a .306 average, .386 OBP and 20 stolen bases at the time of his injury.

Vicente Ibarra and Ramón Gallegos will platoon in right as the Calzones try to see if either of the youngsters fits into their future plans. Neither is considered a prospect at this time, but Ibarra has some speed and Gallegos may have some power, so they’ll get one last chance to show something. David Hernández is the fifth outfielder and organizational soldier. Mark James will likely be demoted if not released altogether.

Hard to get too excited about the Sea Lions chances of improvement in 2010. The pitching consists of mostly organizational soldiers who will never likely make it even the AAA level, most of them likely to be purged in a season or two. About the only positive is the experience they have at the level. The offense could be improved in 2010 as some decent talent moves up to the level in Shaffer, LaRouche and Howard, as well as Asai and Rivera. But all those players will be making their first trip through AA and could need to adjust. Maldonado, Keller and a few other returnees could reasonably be expected to improve their production during their second stint at AA, but whether that is enough for the team to make any strides is anyone’s guess. Despite a few decent prospects at the level, the team overall might still finish below .500 next season.

Lineup:
SS Howard
2B González/Palmer
3B Shaffer
LF Maldonado
CF LaRouche
1B Asai
DH Rivera
C Keller
RF Ibarra/Gallegos

Rotation:
Hall
Hashimoto
Miller
Hill
Manbujano
Hann (midseason)
Stanley (swing)

Bullpen:
Lawrence
McGee
Lee
Rico
Walker
Cochran