Saturday, March 1, 2014

We all hope last season was the absolute bottom for the San Antonio Calzones de Laredo.  Of course, at this time last year, we were hoping 2012 was the absolute bottom.  Is there any reason for hope?

If the just-announced trade for José Hernández is any indication, yes.  If we use the other just-announced trade for the washed-up George Thompson as a barometer, the answer would be a resounding, “No.”  For all their commitment to youth, the move to acquire a clearly fading Thompson begs the question: is it possible to make drug testing of the Calzones front office mandatory?

There is some reason for hope, but that hope may have to simmer quietly as a young Calzones team is likely to go through some continued growing pains this season.  There is an influx of talented you players coming to Laredo this season, but to expect these kids to win games this season might be too much.

Rotation

Augusto Torres  – R – 30 – The veteran Torres will head up the rotation.  The team leader is what he is: a solid innings-eater who will take the ball, work deep into games, and give up more than his share of home runs.  A fan favorite, most likely due to his generosity with the long ball, Torres was recently signed to an extension that will bring him back for the 2015 season.  Whether Torres lasts the season in the rotation remains to be seen.  It’s no secret the Calzones would like to add one more starter.  Recent rumors suggest San Antonio might be close to reaching a deal with the Charleston Statesmen for Wesley Scott.  If the Calzones do pick up another PEBA-ready starter, look for Torres to get shuttled to the bullpen.  But he will head up the rotation to start the season, taking the pressure off the young rotation.

Danny Hendricks – R – 23 – “Livewire” was clearly the Calzones’ best pitcher last season, finishing with an 8-6 mark and 3.38 ERA.  His rookie season included picking up a win in the PEBA All-Star game.  The Calzones will remain cautious with the young Hendricks.  After pitching 120 innings last season, Hendricks will be slated for about 160 innings this season.  While he is clearly the best pitcher on the Calzones’ staff, expect him to miss an occasional start this season as the team tries to limit his workload.

Albert Bush – R – 24 – The San Antonio native had his ups and downs last season, but the Calzones still love his arm and envision him near the front of the rotation over the next few seasons.  Unlike last season, when he split time between the bullpen and the rotation, the gloves should mostly be off this season.  Bush should be expected to rack up about 180 innings this season.

Ricardo Salazar – R – 24 – A Rule 5 pick out of the Kentucky organization, Salazar has been very consistent at the minor league level.  Salazar has been a workhorse and has the stamina to work deep into games.  He doesn’t have over powering stuff, but his ability to get the groundball serves him well.  A rookie, the Calzones aren’t likely to give Salazar a huge workload.  He’s likely to shuttle back and forth to the bullpen all season long.

Xavier Gómes – R – 21 – The second rookie in the rotation, which gives one pause when considering the Calzones’ potential fortunes this season.  A former 2nd round pick, Gomes had an up and down season in the minors last year.  But the Calzones feel that Gomes will be a very good pitcher in the near future and it is worth letting him take his lumps in the PEBA to get him started on the learning curve.  He’s known to have quite the positive influence in the clubhouse.  Much like Salazar, “X-Factor” is likely to split time between the rotation and the bullpen this season, but he will start the season as the 5th starter.

Bullpen

José Ocasio – R – 25 – Ocasio was a workhorse in the Calzones’ bullpen last season, working in 52 games after a June 14 trade with Kentucky.  He had worked 38 games in the minor leagues prior to the trade.  Ocasio does not throw especially hard, but his ability to get the groundball and limit the walks serves him well.  He’s an ideal middle reliever who can come in and limit the damage.  He finished last season with a 3-1 mark and 2.51 ERA for the Calzones, and his work in the middle innings will again be counted on to keep the Calzones in games.

Franklin Browne – R – 32 – Browne fell on hard times last season (1-8, 7.04 ERA) for the New Orleans Trendsetters.  It is hoped the change of scenery allows the Calzones to squeeze some useful innings out of his aging arm.  He’ll likely start the season as the Calzones’ 2nd option in the middle innings, but may see some time in the rotation as the team monitors the innings of their young starters.  The Calzones hope that his veteran leadership can help to stabilize the young staff.

Eldon Cahill – L – 27 – Cahill is a smallish left-hander with the ability to get the punch-out, but he struggles with his control.  A Rule 5 draftee, Cahill is expected to be used in the situational middle innings left-handed role.

Artie Herman – R – 31 – Herman was fantastic in the right-handed setup role for the Calzones last season (1-1, 1.38 ERA) after a mid-season trade with West Virginia.  A hard thrower, Herman did not allow a home run in 26 innings.  His career numbers are not indicative of a quality setup man, but he can be effective enough.

Jamie Johnston – L – 30 – Johnston had an off season last year.  He was dogged with control issues early in the season prior to his trade to San Antonio.  He improved somewhat after the trade, but it was clear he was not on top of his game.  He still appears to have something left in the tank, and while he will not be a top-flight reliever, he should be effective enough as the left-handed setup man for at least one more season.

Miguel Lozano – R – 33 – Lozano is 3rd on the PEBA all-time saves list.  While he only racked up 28 saves in 2013, his 2.79 ERA and 6 BB suggest he is still on top of his game.  He is as steady as they come in the 9th inning and will remain the Calzones’ closer for at least one more season.

George Thompson – R – 30 – Thompson is clearly on the downside of his career but remains very good at limiting the damage.  He consistently allows less hits than innings pitched.  The concern revolves around how many walks he allows and his penchant for giving up the homer (11 HR allowed in just 68 innings last year).  He has the flexibility to start in a pinch but will start the season in the long relief role.

Knocking at the door – Pablo López and Roberto Rosado will be at AAA, waiting for their call.  López is likely the next in line if the Calzones need a starter, while Rosado might be the most likely reliever to get recalled.  Dave Copeland waits as the next left-handed reliever to get a call-up.

Catchers

Emílio González – L – Emilio is never likely to be a big star, but the Calzones are convinced he can be a contributor.  He isn’t likely to hit for a very good average, but his eye at the plate is above average.  He will take his fair share of walks and produce a decent OBP.  González has average power.  His defense is passable and he has better than average speed for a catcher.  The rookie will get the bulk of the playing time at catcher, and his left-handed bat could be a nice fit in the lower part of the order.

Shinsaku Ito – R – 27 – Ito is likely to be the backup to Emilio this season.  Ito’s bat has never quite lived up to the scouting reports and his defense is below average at best.  He will see time against right-handers this season as the caddy, but his days are likely numbered with the Calzones beyond 2014.

Knocking at the door – Roberto Luna.  Luna projects to have above average power and superb defense.  He is likely at least a year away, but he could be platooning with González by next season.

Infield

Pedro Marrero – 1B – L – 26 – Marrero batted .269 and led the Calzones with 22 HR and 54 RBI as a rookie in 2013.  He did have his challenges in the field but appears to be making progress with the glove.  He will move over to 1B full time to make room for Miranda at 3B.  Marrero has good speed (11 SB last year), giving the team a very athletic first basemen.  He has proven to be a leader in the clubhouse, an important quality to have on a young team that is likely to go through some ups and downs.

Ángel González – 2B – S – 24 – Ángel is penciled into the second base job but will have to prove himself with the bat or be unseated by Santiago Aragón.  González puts the ball in play and is difficult to strike out, but his .179 average in 184 AB leaves much to be desired.  It is hoped that he can adjust to big league pitching in his second season.  He has good speed but doesn’t run much, and while scouts think he may have average power someday, he has yet to show it.  González’s range at 2B is a bit lacking but he is sure-handed and has great footwork around the bag.  He’ll start the season near the bottom of the Calzones’ lineup.

George Árias – SS – R – 24 – Árias is one of the brighter prospects in the Calzones’ system.  He plays excellent defense and has above average speed and power.  He’s likely to be a bit raw in his rookie season, but the Calzones really have nowhere else to turn.  The hope is Árias continues to play great defense and progresses with the bat.  The Calzones are hoping to encourage Árias to run a little more often this season.

Carlos Miranda – 3B – R – 24 – Much like Árias, Miranda might be a bit raw.  But he posted a .380 OBP at AAA Joplin last season and should be able to hold his own in his rookie season.  Miranda’s work with the glove leaves a little to be desired, but scouts suggest he will improve in that area.  He should eventually be a solid bat with at least average power and a decent eye at the plate.  His speed gives the Calzones a pair of very athletic corner infielders.

Santiago Aragón – Util – R – 27 – Aragón can play very good defense at any infield position and has enough speed to be a threat on the base paths.  He is tough to strike out and should hit for average in limited duty.  He could split time at 2B with González.

Rafael Guerrero – DH – S – 25 – Guerrero slipped a bit in his sophomore season but is young enough to make adjustments.  He could play 1B in a pinch, but the preference is for him to DH on a full-time basis.  The only player in San Anonio’s lineup who lacks speed, the Calzones really need Rafael to bounce back with the bat this season.  If he struggles again, he could be displaced by a more athletic youngster or a true power hitter.

Knocking at the door – A variety of players could get into the mix at 1B or DH if a need arises, but Paul Weaver and Ricardo Gonzáles probably have the inside tracks.  Dae-hwan Kim could be next in line if help were needed in the middle infield, but his bat is probably best suited for a utility role.  Veteran Keith Eby could also see a return to the PEBA if injuries arise.

Outfield

James Hayes – CF – L – 27 – Hayes led the team in stolen bags last season with 39 despite hitting in the middle of the order most of the season.  Hayes will move into the leadoff role on a full-time basis this season.  He has the ability to go deep and be a fair run producer.  Despite the number of athletic players on the roster, Hayes is the most consistent threat on the base paths.  He has a cannon for an arm and plays terrific defense but is moving from a corner position to centerfield this season and could go through some growing pains making that transition.

José Hernández – RF – R – 22 – Acquired earlier today in a deal with Yuma, Hernández will get thrown to the wolves and be given the starting right field job to start the season.  José has excellent power potential, but he will need some time to grow up at the PEBA level.  Hernández has the speed to avoid clogging the base paths, but he doesn’t have the instincts to steal bases.  His range in the outfield is passable and he is fairly sure-handed.  His biggest asset, however, is a very strong arm – runners will be well advised to show caution when advancing on Hernández.  Known for his strong personality and leadership skills, his presence in the clubhouse should help a young Calzones team that is likely to struggle to score runs at times.

Sherman Hicks – LF – S – 23 – Hicks hit 26 HR in between AAA and San Antonio last season.  His power is desperately needed in the Calzones lineup if they are going to score more runs than last year’s feeble offensive effort.  The San Antonio native may have a way to go towards improving his plate discipline, but his power from both sides of the plate is sorely needed and he will be given every opportunity to succeed.  Hicks is a capable corner outfielder.  He’s not a speedster, but he won’t clog the base paths, either.

Domingo Rojas – 4th OF – R – 25 – Rojas was second on the team in stolen bags with 20 last season and batted a respectable .276.  Entering his 3rd season, Rojas has decent speed and fair defensive ability but doesn’t hit for much power.  He will occassionaly spell the other outfielders and give the Calzones a backup who can step in as a starter for long periods if needed.

Ben Wagner – 5th OF – R – 24 – Wagner was dogged by minor injuries last season but still had a respectable showing in 242 AAA at bats, batting .310 with 7 HR and 14 SB.  Wagner is capable of playing any of the outfield positions.  He’s been known to be a positive influence in the clubhouse.  Wagner is a bit raw but will get time to grow in the 5th OF spot.

Knocking on the door – Gustavo Correa missed most of last season with a broken elbow.  He will start the season at AAA but is a capable replacement if needed.  Also in line is Jeffrey Thomas, a speedster who was nagged by injuries last season.  Josh Willard is another speedster who could get in the mix if the injuries pile up.  Curt Ramey is a developing power hitter who has been rushed and needs more time at AAA but could turn into quite the player in another season or two.

On the way out the door –  Miguel Lluea and Armando Santana.  Both are overpaid and in the final year of their contracts.  They are blocking younger players and the Calzones are unlikely to find deals for either.  San Antonio has been shopping both players, hoping to swap them for contracts that are spread over two or three seasons, but there doesn’t appear to be any interest.

Projected Lineup

CF James Hayes – L
3B Carlos Miranda – R
1B Pedro Marrero – L
SS George Árias – R
LF Stephen Hicks – S
RF José Hernández -R
DH Rafael Guerrero – S
C Emilio González – L
2B Angel González – S

The rotation will be young, for the most part.  High on the Calzones list is adding another starter to the core group that presently includes Bush, Hendricks, and Gómes.  Adding a pitcher like Wesley Scott would set the Calzones up with a decent young staff that they can hopefully keep together over the next four or five seasons.  But going into this season with a pair of rookies in Salazar and Gómes, the rotation looks really green.

The bullpen is in much better shape than it was entering last season.  While it is still not as intimidating as some bullpens, Lozano is easily the most underrated closer in the league and gives the Calzones a lot of comfort in the 9th inning when they do have a lead.

Offensively, it will be hard to be worse than last year’s futility, but the team is loaded with young players who are apt to struggle at times.  There is certainly the potential to score more runs than last season, but in reality, it may take another season or two before these raw youngsters really start to come together.  The bench has players who should be solid contributors and the team has cut away the dead weight.  Defensively, this should be a solid team all the way around, but these players are young and will be susceptible to the occasional lapse.

What has to go right?  Everything.  This is an extremely young team that needs everything to break their way if they are going to have success.

What can’t go wrong?  Unlike last season, when the bullpen burst into flames early and often, the bullpen will have to be up to the task of putting games away early in the season.  The Calzones cannot afford to get buried early as they did last year.

Outlook

This is really a team looking ahead to 2015.  The effort is being made to get the players into place and get them some experience, but the real turnaround is probably a season away.  This young team is likely to takes it lumps, but the core pieces are in place and by next season, the team should be able to add another pitcher to the rotation and upgrade the bullpen.  Despite another season of rebuilding, there is more talent here than at the beginning of last season.  While climbing out of the basement might be a tough task, there is some hope that the team can avoid another 100-loss season.