Bears Codgers Series Preview

[Ghosts]

Bears vs. Codgers

Just how close is this match-up? Closer than you may think.

Offensively, both Palm Springs and Bakersfield offer an intimidating attack, with both teams ranking at or near the top of the Sovereign League in just about every offensive category. The real difference between the teams is not how often they score, but how it is they push runners across the plate.

The Codgers do it with pure brute force: their 186 Home Runs (third in the Sovereign League) and .286 batting average (first in the League) demonstrative just how dangerous they are. Make no mistake, however: this is not a team of hackers. They struck out only 886 times this year, a Sovereign League best and 200+ times less than the Bears. The Bears, meanwhile, go about it entirely differently: they are first in the Sovereign League in triples (at 52, they had 13 more than the next highest team), second in the League in walks (with 603) and stolen bases (183 swiped), and fourth in the league in batting average (.277).

The end result shows two teams that are almost identical in their ability to score. They were both tied for 3rd in the Sovereign League in runs scored, averaging 5.4 runs per game (Bakersfield scored 881, Palm Springs had 879 cross the plate) and likewise functionally tied for 2nd in OPS (Palm Springs had a .781 percentage, while the Bears finished the season at .779). In short, they both score. And score a lot. The Codgers’ addition of bats like Ollie Morris further demonstrates that these statistics should be taken with a grain of salt: Palm Spring’ numbers would be even more eye-popping had he been on the team the entire year. As a result, one must assume the Codgers are more dangerous than the numbers say.

Pitching is where the two teams diverge. Bakersfield gives up a Sovereign League third-best 3.9 runs per game (with 3.49 ERA), while the Codgers surrender 4.5 on average (with a 4.13 ERA). This translates to over 1/2 a run per game difference. Interestingly, the Bakersfield staff gave up a Sovereign League low 97 dingers in 2007 (with the next lowest at 131), so this should be an area to pay close attention to. If the Codgers start playing long-ball, it could be short post-season for the Bears.

And, now, a position by position analysis of the starting lineups:

Catcher - Russ Huber vs. Cristóbal Pacheco
Edge - Russ Huber
Bears 1 Codgers 0
First Base - Jack Cobb vs. Gilberto Ibarra
Edge - Gilberto Ibarra
Bears 1 Codgers 1

Second Base - Roy Benthall vs. Juan García
Edge - Roy Benthall
Bears 2 Codgers 1

Third Base - Bob Petersen vs. Ollie Morris
Edge - Ollie Morris
Bears 2 Codgers 2

Shortstop - Theodore Boyd vs. Miguel Soto/Jeremy Lawrence
Edge - Theodore Boyd
Bears 3 Codgers 2

Left Field - Charles McGuire vs. Brooks Erickson
Edge - Brooks Erickson
Bears 3 Codgers 3

Center Field - Alberto Delgado vs. John Gustafson
Edge - John Gustafson
Bears 3 Codgers 4

Left Field - Pat Lilly vs. Mark Frazier
Edge - Pat Lilly
Bears 4 Codgers 4

Bullpen.
Harry Miller has been lights out in the bullpen for the Codgers this year, and Brian Langlois seems to have returned to form in the closing weeks of the season, but neither is dominant. The remaining Codger pen arms have ERAs of 4.5 or higher, and none of them look to be joining the “circle of trust” anytime soon. The Bears’ pen, meanwhile, has been a rock this season. A Sovereign League second best ERA of 3.23 (compared to the Codgers’ 4.29) tells the tale best. Peterson, Sepkiechler, Rosa, and Im (with ERAs all under 3.3) form the core of the pen, and Jason Doyle is the only remaining member with an ERA over 3.8.

Edge - Bears.



Starters
The Bears’ Ken Johnstone (1.82 ERA), Byron Verdon (3.36), Desmond Barnes (3.91) and Luis Moreno (3.92) are a fearsome trio. The Codgers’ Ron Goode (3.37) and Felipa Lira (3.62) are no slouches either, but the rest of their starters are a bit suspect. Harry Sullivan (4.09 ERA), Angel Centena (4.11), and Alfredo Martinez (4.25) round out the possible series starters. While all are solid, none are over-powering.

Edge - Bears.

Final Result: Bears 6 - Codger 4.

Series prediction: Bears in 5.