Eastern Invasion (Part II)

[John]

Eastern Invasion (Part II)
By Nate Manuel, American Baseball Perspective
September 17, 2007

Although a number of Japanese players are already experiencing success in PEBA, none of them have actually played in Japan’s premier professional baseball league (the League of the Rising Sun). Current stars like Kuemon Kiyomizu and Shirai Takata were signed out of NIBL (Nihon Independent Baseball League), and while their success proves there’s talent to be had there it’s the LRS that’s been the traditional powerhouse for producing top-quality players.

For years, LRS and the now-defunct MLB shared an uneasy relationship. Star Japanese players were made available to teams through an unwieldy posting system that required teams to blindly bid for the privilege of negotiating with a player. While this helped fill the coffers of LRS teams, many fans bemoaned the loss of native top talent. Furthermore, the exchange of players was fairly one-sided. While MLB players would make their way to Japan, those that did were invariably also-rans.

PEBA and LRS have partnered to form a more equitable system. First, PEBA agreed to honor the 10-year free agency rule (which prevents players from leaving LRS until their 30s in most cases). Second, the posting system has been done away with. This theoretically places LRS teams on equal footing with their PEBA counterparts when negotiating with their star free agents. In practice, however, the much deeper pockets of most PEBA teams makes this a lopsided competition. Finally, the exchange of players promises to be at least a bit more equitable than in the past. Bigger names like Doug Pierce, Howard Reed and 3-time SSG Player of the Week winner Mario Martínez have already made the journey to the Far East.

This off-season will mark the first time that the LRS will return the favor and feed PEBA with a fresh batch of free agents. While there’s a chance one or more of these players may be resigned by their teams prior to filing, the likelihood is that they’ll be available on the open market. Once there, these players will be in a position to significantly impact the balance of power in PEBA.

CF Masujiro Inoue – Probably the safest bet of any of the Japanese free agent batters to experience a smooth transition to PEBA, Inoue features a well-rounded game. Scouts have noted that his swing has a tendency to get long at times as he tries to generate extra power. As a result he strikes out more than his fair share, but this is compensated by a very high walk rate (Inoue drew 81 free passes, good for 5th in the league). He should be able to replicate last season’s .285 average in the States.

Inoue is solidly built at 6’4”, 232 lbs. When he connects he has the ability to drive the ball to any part of the park. 25-30 HR is a realistic target for him. Despite being a big man, Inoue will not clog up the bases. His range in the field is acceptable but not outstanding. His throwing arm rates a 40 by scouts and several have mentioned he may be better suited to play in left field.

In the clubhouse Inoue is well liked by his teammates, and he’s a popular player in his native Japan. An added bonus for PEBA teams interested in signing him is that Inoue is already fluent in English. This should enable him to fit in well with his new club. It’s a good bet that Inoue will quickly become a fan favorite wherever he signs.

SP Yoshisada Rin – The offense-friendly environment of the LRS makes judging players purely on their stats problematic. Sporting an ERA over 4, Rin wouldn’t seem to be much of a catch. There’s a lot more to Rin than meets the eye, though, and he has the potential to be the most sought after Japanese pitcher on the market behind only Tanaka.

Rin’s greatest asset is a heavy sinker that scouts rate as a 75 on the traditional 20-80 scale. Batters pound balls into the dirt chasing after it. When he reaches a two-strike count, Rin will bust out a devastating slider (60) that usually finishes off the at-bat. Rin also throws a changeup and a forkball, but they’re rarely used parts of his arsenal.

His 90-92 MPH fastball is used to get ahead of batters or when he’s behind in the count. The less he has to rely on it, the better. 18 of Rin’s 21 HR were surrendered on fastballs, and 15 of those were when he was behind in the count. Fortunately Rin’s pinpoint control means he’ll rarely be behind in the count – he walked just 33 batters last season in 194.1 innings.

Rin’s extreme groundball tendencies will make him highly attractive to teams playing in smaller ballparks. His value will be maximized by landing with a team featuring a solid fielding infield. That was certainly not the case for Rin last season; Yamato’s infield defense was amongst the worst in the LRS. This is yet another reason why scouts believe Rin will make a good transition to PEBA.

One concern with Rin will be his contract demands. He recently fired his agent and signed on with Richard Bonedus, notorious for squeezing every last penny out of teams. There are some GMs who won’t deal with Bonedus, and rumors of Rin’s asking price may scare away some who would otherwise be interested in him. When he does eventually find a home, though, he’ll likely make a high-quality #3 pitcher for his new team.

CL Norihisa Shibutani – With a fastball touching 94 MPH and a jerky, deceptive motion out of the wind-up, “Butan” (as he’s known in Japan) has the potential to be an effective middle reliever in PEBA. The movement on his pitches is exceptional and leads to a lot of weak contact. In a league known for grossly inflated HR totals, Shibutani surrendered just one gopher ball in 61 innings. The resulting .15 HR/9 ratio was the best of any pitcher in the LRS.

Durability is a concern that will always dog Shibutani thanks to his size (5’8”) and his extremely odd mechanics. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results. Shibutani worked comfortably at 92 MPH all season and didn’t experience any arm trouble at all. There are those skeptical that his clean bill of health will last, but at the moment there aren’t any red flags that jump out at you.

One negative that will have to be factored by any team interested in Shibutani is his notorious hot-headedness. The 34 year-old has often clashed with coaches and teammates. He was also the instigator in the most replayed altercation of the LRS season. Shibutani has made it very clear that he expects to be a closer, though his arsenal recommends him better for a middle relief or setup role. Whether he’d be content accepting that role remains an open question.

LF Totoya Kataoka – Kataoka is the one true leadoff threat coming out of the LRS this year (although the Celestial Warriors oddly batted him 3rd despite having a number of power hitters on the club). He hit .288 with Fushigi Yugi last season and reached base at a .373 clip. Kataoka was also successful on 26 of his 32 stolen base attempts.

Although he’s not a serious HR threat, Kataoka can occasionally turn on pitches and yank them down the line and out of the park. His power to the alleys is good, and his speed allows him to capitalize – Kataoka hit 41 doubles and 7 triples (tied for 2nd most in the league) last season. Scouts praise his outstanding instincts on the base paths. Whenever it’s possible, you can count on Kataoka to take the extra base. Despite the great speed, Kataoka has just average range in the outfield. His weak arm limits him to left field duties.

Kataoka has a reputation of being a very hard worker. He’s regularly the first player to take the field for practice and takes hundreds of swings in the cage each day. The dedication has paid off, and now he’s poised to make a splash in the American market.

[John]

Broken links have been fixed both here and in the homepage article.

[Ghosts]

stop posting these articles! you're making us all look bad!

kidding, kidding. this was a great way to explain the interaction between the leagues and the players, too!

well done!