Draft Guide Part 1: Actual/Potential Ratings

[John]

Before we start, I'd like to mention that I've added an "Important Software" link to the PEBA Links menu on the front page. The first link on that page is to the OOTP manual. You're probably not going to have time to read it all - it's 533 pages long! - but I'd suggest reading "The Player Model" section that begins on page 330. A lot of what I'm going to cover here is based off of this part of the manual.

With a week until our draft starts, there's a lot of work to be done scouting players. The challenge is much greater since a) most of us have never played OOTP before and aren't used to its player model, and b.) our player pool is entirely fictional. Don't panic! Remember: While a few owners are familiar with OOTP, everyone is dealing with the same learning curve when it comes to scouting the players. For those of you that are feeling a little lost on how to judge who should top your draft list, I offer this draft guide.

Actual vs. Potential Ratings: Win Early or Win Often?
The first thing you should decide on is whether you're building your team to win now at all costs, laying the groundwork for long-term success at the expense of the here-and-now, or a mixture of the two approaches. The "Ratings" pull-down menu in the draft tracker allows you to display either "Potential" (the default) or "Actual" ratings. Clearly Actual shows you what SISA scouts think about a player's skills today while Potential is their evaluation of what they can ultimately be.

For those of you inclined to dream on what a player could be, beware! SISA's evaluations are "best guesses", not gospel, and SISA's guesses tend to be less accurate for Potential than Actual ratings. Any number of factors - injury, rushed/slow development, dumb luck, etc. - can conspire to keep a player from reaching their potential. Furthermore, it's dangerous to base your rankings exclusively on Potential since sometimes players will have mouth-watering Potential ratings yet weak Actual ratings (this is especially true for very young players). If you don't pay attention you may end up with a major league roster filled with blue-chip AAA prospects not ready for the Show - and thrusting them into the big leagues too soon might keep them from ever being ready.

If you're looking for the "safe" plan to constructing your draft list, you probably want to use Actual ratings since they represent what a player is today and they're more likely to be accurate. However, there are pitfalls to relying heavily on this approach as well. Chief amongst those is the possibility that those great Actual ratings may represent the "back end" of a player's peak. That player you draft today might be sporting a lovely set of Actual stats that are just about to go *POOF!* as he begins to experience the decline that all players face. One way to help mitigate this concern is to keep an eye on the player's age: A 27 year-old is much more likely to stay at his peak for years to come than a 34 year-old.

When looking at Actual ratings, don't get tunnel-vision. Maybe you're looking at two RFs. RF1 has 5 less ratings points than RF2 in all of the 5 main offensive categories. Go with RF2, right? Not necessarily. This is precisely the time when comparing Potential ratings can help differentiate between two closely matched players. If RF1 seems to have a much higher ceiling, it may be worth taking the modest short-term production hit for the potential big long-term payoff.

Ultimately you'll see the best results if you pay attention to both Potential and Actual ratings. If you're not sure where to start, my suggestion is to begin sorting by Actual ratings and save your examination of Potential ratings for cases when you're deciding between two or more evenly matched players. Not that you shouldn't dare to dream! Just remember that this isn't a regular Amateur Draft... this is where you'll be building your core major league franchise. You have 25 picks and you're going to want most of those to be guys you can count on to win you big league ball games!