The Bureaucrats Triplicate: Crunching Numbers

[Bureaucrats]

With a month and a half remaining in the season, and playoff pictures become clear, it is common for people to speculate about the last remaining games of the season. We here at the Bureaucrats' Triplicate have noticed a peculiar occurrence with the remaining games. Split between 44 games, there are 10 opponents left, and our boys have a split between being over .500 and under .500 against, having gone 37-43 against this season, a .463 record against this year. We decided to do a mental exercise, and predict how this season will go the rest of the way.

The rules are as follows; We first predict the results of the series our boys are under .500 on the season, and then break the future results in 4 scenarios between the Dream Scenario(everything goes as right as it can), Absolute Best Case (Almost everything goes right), Realistic Case Scenarios(History is the best teacher), and Worst Case Scenario(Doom and Gloom, all is lost). Then we do the same with the teams we are .500 or better against. We then take the results, and combine each to determine the 4 likeliest scenarios for the season. Let us begin.

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Remaining Schedule For Teams We Are Under .500 Against

CST(Season Record: 1-5,.166) x 3 games
KTY(Season Record: 1-3,.250) x 4 games
MAN(Season Record: 5-10,.333)x 3 games
HAV(Season Record: 2-4,.333) x 3 games
SCO(Season Record: 1-2,.333) x 4 games

Total record against these teams: 10-24 (.294)

17 games against opp. who have a winning record against us for rest of season, out of 44 (38.6% of remaining games)

There are 4 possible scenarios, ranked from most ideal to least ideal

Dream Scenario, we win a lot
CST: 3-0
KTY: 3-1
MAN: 2-1
HAV: 3-0
SCO: 3-1

14-3 (.824). This scenario on top of our current record of 62-56, not accounting for other team games, puts us at 76-59.

Absolute Best case scenario, we take 2 from each:
CST: 2-1
KTY: 2-2
MAN: 2-1
HAV: 2-1
SCO: 2-2

10-7 (.588). This scenario on top of our current record of 62-56, not accounting for other team games, puts us at 72-63

Realistic scenario goes as follows, going about ~.500:

CST: 1-2
KTY- 2-2
MAN-1-2
HAV: 2-1
SCO: 2-2

8-9 (.471). This scenario on top of our current record of 62-56, not accounting for other team games, puts us at 70-65

Worst Case Goes as Follows, lose a lot:

CST: 0-3
KTY: 1-3
MAN: 0-3
HAV: 1-2
SCO: 1-3

3-14 (.176). This scenario on top of our current record of 62-56, not accounting for other team games, puts us at 65-70.

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Remaining Schedule of Teams We Are .500 or Better Against:

HAR(Season record 8-4,.667)x 6 games
SA(Season record 2-1,.667) x 6 games
WV(Season record 8-4,.667) x 6 games
GLO(Season record 2-2,.500)x 3 games
NJ(Season record 7-5,.583) x 6 games

Total Record Against those teams 27-16 (.628)

27 games against opponents we are .500 or better against, out of 44 (61.4% of the season).

There are 4 possible scenarios, ranked from most ideal to least ideal

Dream Scenario; we win a lot

HAR: 5-1
SA: 5-1
WV:5-1
GLO: 3-0
NJ: 5-1

23-4 (.741). This scenario on top of our current record of 62-56, not accounting for other team games, puts us at 85-60. When paired with the 4 likely outcomes from teams we are below .500 against, the results are as follows(winning .500 first in order):

Dream + Dream: 37-7 (.841). This combination of scenarios would put our final season record at 99-63.
Dream + Best Case: 33-11 (.750). This combination of scenarios would put our final season record at 95-67.
Dream + Realistic: 31-13 (.705) This combination of scenarios would put our final season record at 93-69.
Dream + Worst: 26-18 (.591) This combination of scenarios would put our final season record at 88-74.

Absolute Best Case Scenario, we take 2 of 3 each meeting:

HAR: 4-2
SA: 4-2
WV: 4-2
GLO: 2-1
NJ: 4-2

18-9 (.667). This scenario on top of our current record of 62-56, not accounting for other team games, puts us at 80-65. When paired with the 4 likely outcomes from teams we are below .500 against, the results are as follows(winning .500 first in order):

Best Case + Dream: 32-12 (.750). This combination would put our final season record at 94-66.
Best Case + Best Case: 28-16 (.659). This combination would put our final season record at 90-72.
Best Case + Realistic: 26-18 (.614). This combination would put our final season record at 88-74.
Best Case + Worst: 21-23 (.500). This combination would put our final season record at 83-79.

Realistic Scenario, we go ~.500 the rest of the way:

HAR: 3-3
SA: 4-2
WV: 2-4
GLO: 2-1
NJ: 3-3

14-13 (.519). This scenario on top of our current record of 62-56, not accounting for other team games, puts us at 76-69. When paired with the 4 likely outcomes from teams we are below .500 against, the results are as follows(winning .500 first in order):

Realistic + Dream: 28-16(.659). This combination would put our final season record at 90-72.
Realistic + Best Case: 24-20 (.545). This combination would put our final season record at 86-76.
Realistic + Realistic: 22-22 (.500) This combination would put our final season record at 84-78.
Realistic + Worst Case: 17-27 (.386) This combination would put our final season record at 79-83.

Worst Case Scenario, go ~.333 the rest of the way:

HAR: 1-5
SA: 3-3
WV: 2-4
GLO: 0-3
NJ: 3-3

9-18 (.333). This scenario on top of our current record of 62-56, not accounting for other team games, puts us at 71-74. When paired with the 4 likely outcomes from teams we are below .500 against, the results are as follows(winning .500 first in order):

Worst + Dream: 23-21 (.523). This combination would put our final season record at 85-77
Worst + Best Case: 19-25 (.432) This combination would put our final record at 81-81.
Worst + Realistic: 17-27 (.386). This combination would put our final season record at 79-83.
Worst + Worst Case: 12-32 (.273) This combination would put our final season record at 74-88.

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When we take a look at all possible scenarios for the remainder of the season by possible win percentage, they go as follows

.841, .750,. 750, .705, .659, .659, .614, .591, .545, .523, .500, .500, .432, .386, .386, .273

Let's do some calculations here. If we were to take the median winning percentage, we'd arrive at .545, or 24-20 for the rest of the season, a record of 86-76. If we were to do an average, we'd arrive at .570, or 25-19, a record of 87-75. We here at the Triplicate feel confident the season will land in that range of results.

All numbers included here are purely speculation. All likelihoods are drawn up in the mind of the author, and are NOT to be considered for actual until final season results become real. This is NOT a method to use for gambling, you degenerates.