Summer Turns to High (Super-Sized Playoff Preview)

[Tyler]

(this is what happens when I pull an all-nighter without a full night's worth of work. I hope y'all enjoy! It's loooooooooooong, so be sure you don't miss anything!)

Summer Turns to High: PEBA’s First Pennant Races Enter the Home Stretch
by David Garrick, Knuckleball News

Victor Macias admits he did not handle the situation in a professional manner. “I was angry,” he explained. “We needed to win the game.”

Sports fans everywhere haven’t been able to turn on their TVs this week without seeing endless clips of Macia’s outburst last Saturday. During a visit to the mound to settle down starter Jorge Sanchez, who was getting shelled to the tune of five runs in the sixth inning, Macias choose a unique way to give Sanchez his advice. Macias gestured to the scoreboard in left field, where the Charleston Statesmen could be seen to be pounding the Manchester Maulers 9-1. With a Statesmen win and a Trendsetters loss, New Orleans would fall out of outright first place in the Dixie, a spot which it had claimed possession of since June 6th. “I didn’t want that for our team,” Macia said matter of factly, justifying what he did next. Taking the ball from Sanchez, he again pointed to the scoreboard, then turned around and hurled a strike across the plate. The ball bounced away towards the West Virginia dugout with a dull smack that could be heard throughout the stadium. Macias then asked umpire Cal Burroughs for another ball, handed it do Sanchez, and said “now you try.”

Macias’s outburst illustrates the intense drama unfolding towards the end of summer. With the arrival of September, the pennant races are officially in the home stretch. New Orleans isn’t the only team struggling to maintain its place in the standings. Let’s take a look at the teams in contention for the playoffs and assess their chances.

New Jersey Hitmen (92-40, 1st in Pan-Atlantic Division, Magic Number: 13)

The Pan-Atlantic Division is this year’s official snooze-fest. The Hitmen have been in first place since Opening Day and it hasn’t ever even been a matter of debate who the king of the hill is on the Eastern Seaboard. Take a gander at these stats: the Hitmen rank first in the Imperial League in average, on-pace percentage, slugging, OPS, runs, hits, and walks. They rank second in extra-base hits, home runs, and steals. Their pitching ain’t bad, either. The hurlers from Mercer County sport an ERA of 3.40 and a K/9 of 7.59. It’s just not fair.

They Win If: China doesn’t nuke us with their spy satellites.

They Lose If: Some sort of apocalypse occurs. Like, say, Mike Gravel winning the Democratic nomination.

Key to Success: Having none of their players die? At this point it looks like New Jersey could start nine hospital patients and still crush the competition. But I suppose I should still pick someone. How about Alberto Rishworth? They’re running out a first baseman every day with a .636 OPS. If he even pretends to be average, the New Jersey offense will officially rule the world.

Bakersfield Bears (90-42, 1st in Desert Hills Division, Magic Number: 18)

Bakersfield’s dominance may be more impressive than New Jersey’s seeing as the Bears struggled out of the gate and really didn’t find their footing until late May. Since June 1st, the Bears have gone an incredible 61-24. That’s a .718 winning percentage, folks. On the other hand, perhaps Bakersfield’s perch atop the cactus isn’t all that surprising – we are talking about a team with a $130 million payroll, after all.

They Win If: Theodore Boyd continues his absurd five-tool play. The shortstop is hitting .292/.406/.503 with 23 home runs and 45 steals. With a little luck, he’ll have a 30/30 season. Bakersfield can get comfy with him anchoring the infield – he’ll be around until 2010 under his current contract.

They Lose If: The bullpen tires. Bakersfield’s pen’s ERA of 3.13 is good for the best in the Sovereign League, but if that disappears they could be in a tight spot. Wait. Who am I kidding? Palm Springs is 13 GB. It ain’t happening.

Key to Success: Keep on chuggin’. We’ll be watching in October.

Crystal Lake Sandgnats (82-50, 1st in Great Lakes Division, 2 GU over Kalamazoo)

The Gnats are going to the postseason, but it remains to be seen just exactly what route they’ll take. Crystal Lake has fallen off the pace a bit the past two months, posting a combined record of 32-25 in July and August. The Badgers have been looking to munch on some bugs all summer, and they’d love nothing better than for Crystal Lake to stumble and be vulnerable for the last series between the teams on September 24-26. With a full month left to play, 2 games up in the standings doesn’t mean much. Gnats fans shouldn’t worry too much, though. The fight is just for bragging rights – the loser is virtually assured the first wildcard slot in the Sovereign League.

They Win If: The Big Three keep up their torrid August pace. Nelson Anderson, Jose Cruz, and Bryan Stewart combined to go 7-4 last month with a collective ERA of 2.36. They could use some help from fifth starter Martin Sparling, too. Although 12-7 on the year, his ERA of 5.33 leaves much to be desired at the back end of the Sandgnats rotation.

They Lose If: Well, it feels like cheating, but if the Big Three don’t keep up their torrid August pace, the Gnats could be buzzing behind the Badgers into October. The offense, shall we say, is acceptable. No-body is happy with a team OBP of .317. No sir, that is not a pretty number. The Gnats live on pitching, though, and that’s what they need a steady diet of in September.

Key to Success: Didn’t I already do this? It’s all about the guys 60’, 6” from Scot Christian.

Kalamazoo Badgers (80-52, 2nd in Great Lakes Division, 2 GB of Crystal Lake)

The Badgers are going to the playoffs, but they’re hungry for the Great Lakes Division title. They’ve been leading a balanced attack all year, slugging and slinging their way to October thanks greatly to a 20-6 June. Their summer surge was kicked off by the second no-hitter in PEBA history, tossed by the crafty vet Geoff James against the Yuma Bulldozers. The Badgers have cooled down a bit of late, having gone 31-26 since their stellar June. If that number looks vaguely familiar, it’s because you’ve just read something similar. The Sandgnats are 32-35 in that same timespan. If that doesn’t suggest this race will go down to the wire, then you need a polite bump on the noggin.

They Win If: The big boppers keep doing their thing. Kalamazoo features seven players with 10 or more home runs, paced by left-fielder Gregory Arnold, who has slugged 37. The team slugging percentage of .448 is second only to Reno.

They Lose If: The bullpen bites them in the rear. With an ERA of 4.50, it’s the shakiest part of the team. Closer Ed Blair may have 24 saves, but he also has a 4.47 ERA. He needs to start locking down games like he means it or Kalamazoo might as well hang the wildcard around its neck right now.

Key to Success: Was this a stupid choice for a category? Ed Blair. ERA. It should be lower. There. I wrote it again.

Palm Springs Codgers (77-55, 2nd in SL Wildcard, 8 GU over Aurora/Reno)

The tidal wave still hasn’t hit from the outrageous splash GM Denny Hills made at the deadline. In one fell swoop he acquired two superstars in the form of Ollie Morris and Don Nichols. The Phenom has continued systematically obliterating opposing pitching. Since donning his nauseating salmon cap, he’s cranked out 9 HR’s and 32 RBI’s. Nichols hasn’t fared as well in his new home, but it hasn’t mattered. The Codgers went 21-8 in August, effectively tearing themselves apart from the three-team scramble they’d entangled in with Aurora and Reno. At this point, the second Wildcard is theirs to lose.

They Win If: Simple. They keep it up. Morris motors, Gustafson gallops, Frazier festers, and Erickson elopes.

They Lose If: Brooks Erickson actually runs off with his girlfriend.

Key to Success: The Codgers are built on star power. As long as they don’t suffer any key injuries, there are no playoff races in the Sovereign League. Just a friendly competition between Crystal Lake and Kalamazoo for bragging rights.

Charleston Statesmen (81-51, 1st in Dixie Division, 2 GU over New Orleans)

Here’s the most exciting race in PEBA – the battle for the southern belle that is the Dixie Division. Charleston’s fiery charge up in the standings to wrest first place from New Orleans inspired Macia’s infamous meltdown. But the politicians have a long way to go. San Antonio is only four games back, and with a full month to play, it’ll be a three-dog race to the finish line. The good news? Unless the Bureaucrats bring out the red tape, all three teams have a spot in the playoffs. But which one is completely up in the air.

They Win If: Ralph Dean keeps pacing the staff. The righty took home the Imperial League Pitcher of the Month honors for August thanks to his 5-0 record and 1.37 ERA. With that kind of ace on the mound, the Statesmen will be hard to beat.

They Lose If: Well, they really can’t lose, can they? Fine. I’ll admit it. It’s past my deadline and I’m just trying to wrap this up so I can mail it in.

Key to Success: Juan Torres keeps up his MVP-caliber play. On pace for a 62.8 VORP, the first baseman should be a contender for the end-of-the-year hardware.

New Orleans Trendsetters (79-53, 1st in IL Wildcard, 2 GU over San Antonio)

Yes, it stings. The boys from the Big Easy have slipped into second place in the Dixie and find themselves only two games up on San Antonio in both the division and wildcard races. The Trendsetters, though, needn’t worry. They have the hand of destiny on their side. I’m calling it now – you’ll be seeing the Trendsetters in the Series. Their pitching staff has a 3.11 ERA. What wins games in October? You know it.

They Win If: That staff remains insane. How do your top four starters all have ERA’s below 3.40? How? How? And four bullpen arms sport ERA’s under 3.00. Unreal.

They Lose If: Again, they’re in the playoffs baring a huge choke. It all comes back to their pitching. It keeps rolling, the Trendsetters keep winning.

Key to Success: Todd Hansen. I’m sure you’ve read plenty about him by now, but I have to get in my plug, too. His .380 AVG is legit, folks. That’s in 221 at-bats. That’s almost half a season, folks. One caveat – the guy doesn’t walk. At all. He’s got just three base on balls on the season. If he somehow stops making contact (which is pretty unlikely), he’ll fall, hard. Right now, though, he’s busy polishing his two Rookie of the Month trophies.

San Antonio Calzones of Laredo (77-55, 2nd in IL Wildcard, 3 GU over Arlington)

From pretender to contender, the Calzones have had quite the season. Over the course of the summer, the Calzones have found themselves anywhere from first to fourth in the standings. Right now, a late-summer surge has given them new life and a slim lead for the final playoff spot in the IL.

They Win If: Deadline acquisition Ki-Tong Pei keeps providing his high-priced power numbers. In 30 games since coming from division rival West Virginia, the new Calzone is hitting .280/.398/.516.

They Lose If: The rotation is good, but it ain’t that great. If it goes south, so does the team, no matter what their sluggers do.

Key to Success: The offense stays hot. The Calzones bats are on fire and they need to stay that way. Wait. Did I just say they make the playoffs if they get good pitching and good hitting? Crap. That deadline is even further away now.

Arlington Bureaucrats (74-58, 3rd in IL Wildcard, 3 GB of San Antonio)

The only team not currently in a playoff berth with a realistic shot of changing their fortunes, Arlington needs to crank it up a notch if it wants to prevent the Dixie from sending three teams to October. San Antonio and New Orleans are both within reach if they can catch fire. Without a super September, the Bureaucrats will be left to wander the campaign trails come October.

They Win If: They have a mediocre staff overall and mediocre hitting. Yet, somehow, they’ve managed to stay in contention with one month left to go. If their own Big Three keeps shutting down opposing bats (Matos, Luna, and 20-year old sensation Bender are a combined 32-22) they might be able to squeak by with a .709 OPS.

They Lose If: That last number drops any lower. Arlington simply doesn’t hit for power, and if the scant slugging to do ever vanishes, so will their chances to extend their season beyond October 3rd.

Key to Success: Travis Bunch needs to take off. The right fielder is having a fine season with a 32.5 VORP, but this team needs a legit slugger. He has 35-40 HR potential, but right now it simply isn’t there.

Sitting Still:

Aurora Borealis (69-63, T-3rd in SL Wildcard, 8 GB of Palm Springs)
Reno Tenpinners (69-93, T-3rd in SL Wildcard, 8 GB of Palm Springs)

Yeah, I’m mentioning them just to cover myself in case one of this teams makes September a month to remember. It ain’t gonna happen, though. These two teams will open September with a head-to-head three game series. If one of them doesn’t sweep, they’re both dead.

And that does it for your September primer! I’ve got to send this in and grab a plane to Aurora where I’ll be covering the afore-mentioned Tenpinners/Borealis series. If these teams just beat up on each other, neither one will be able to do the impossible and catch up to Palm Springs.

Shoot. Now this is two hours overdue. Gotta go. Until next time, fellow fans, this is David Garrick wishing you blue skies, green grass, and gritty dirt.

[John]

What a great preview! I thoroughly enjoyed reading this. And you even managed to get in our 2nd Mike Gravel reference in the last 24 hours. What is wrong with you people and your political leanings??

I'm really interested to see if the Bureaucrats can answer back after a ho-hum August that had them going just one game over .500. They always talk about pitching winning in the playoffs. Arlington has the pitching, but will they get a chance to showcase it in the playoffs? They have to get there first, and 15-14 (which is what they went in August) isn't going to get it done. Not with Ki-tong Pei slugging away in Laredo. Not with Todd Hansen donning his Superman cape in New Orleans. The 'Crats have the arms to make the race interesting, but they need to start making a move right now.

By the way, with this awesome article you've just hit max writing CPs, Tyler. I sure hope it's not the end of your writing for the season, though... I love reading your stuff!

[Tyler]

I'm glad you liked it. It gave me something to do between the wee hours of 4 and 6 AM.

What I like about PEBA is that even though there's really only one team out of the playoffs with a shot at getting in - Arlington - only two teams (New Jersey and Bakersfield) have locked up their ticket to the postseason. Everything else is up for grabs. It'll be interesting to see who goes home with the division pennants.

And don't worry - I may have maxed my writing CPs but I don't plan on stopping anytime soon.

[Reg]

great write up, of course to defend sanchez a little, he should have gotten the hook instead of the ball back...my manager seems to think that the fifth starter should be left in the game under most circumstances....



my favorite part of september...not having to play New Jersey....

[Ghosts]

this is the best article of the year.

and great job in recognizing boyd for the mvp that he is. during the draft his ratings didn't show that he did anything "great", but that he did everything "really, really well".

and he's lived up to that and then some.

anyhow, great job on the article.

i don't think i've ever used and emoticon in my entire life, but your effort is deserving of them all: :)

[Tyler]

To the Bears, and everyone else who has complemented my work, thank you very, very much. You're all too kind!

This is what I love about PEBA - making the league feel real. Let's keep them articles comin', boys!

[Denny]

This is what I love about PEBA - making the league feel real.

I liked this article too. You are a lot more knowledgeable about other people's clubs than I am--I'm only aware of a few specific players on most teams.

Just one small mistake I spotted: in the sentence about Ollie Morris' new salmon cap, you misspelled "distinguished" as "nauseating".

[Tyler]

Just one small mistake I spotted: in the sentence about Ollie Morris' new salmon cap, you misspelled "distinguished" as "nauseating".

Oh no no, my friend. Mr. David Garrick is the one who holds that opinion about the Codgers threads. I find them...unique.