![Image](https://pebabaseball.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/aurora_storialis.png)
Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
July 31, 2039: Yuma, Arizona – June came to a close with Aurora winning 2 of 3 at Okinawa - starting with a taut 2-1 win in which Armando Batista took a Raul Munoz 1st-inning, 2-run homer and ran with it - finishing the month with a meh 14-13 record, following an equally meh May (at 15-13), and a 44-35 mark - 4.5 games behind Reno, 4-games back of Tempe, and a half game ahead of Toyama for the 2nd WC. Aurora was treading water, but aside from the 50-30 Ghosts the entirety of the SL contenders seemed to be mostly doing just that - treading water.
Then July came and all hell broke loose.
It began promising enough - a 3-game sweep of the Badgers at Northern Lights - Kzoo scoring all of 1-run as Martin Gutierrez made his first start in Brian Clark's spot (and Anthony MacDonald shipped back to Thornton) handheld the Badgers to a pair of hits and no runs over 5.2 IP - and the 'pen doing the rest; 'Lanza' was the starter that day for Kalamazoo, taking the loss - then it was Clymo nearly going the distance in game 2, allowing just a run, then Perfection, as Armando Batista not only no-hit the Badgers - he threw a perfect game!
It was all downhill from there.
The Ghost swept three from the Borealis - giving Aurora a 2-7 record against a probable playoff foe (if the Borealis were to get that far) - and then their lost a fourth straight game to Crystal lake, before heading into the All-Star game with a pair of 1-run wins over the 'Gnats - Batista's 3rd straight win - and second in which Aurora scored all they would in the 1st and let the big Cuban ride it to the end; and a late Munoz RBI single in the rubber match gave Aurora a 49-39 mark - dropping to 6 GB of Reno.
The All-Star Break seemed to come at a good time - the SL winning 7-4 in Niihama, with Angel Silva going 1-2 with a hit and a run; Raul Ortega getting 2 AB - earning a walk in one; and Kichida faced two batters cleanly.
But as has been the case in recent years, the All-Star Break does nothing but break Aurora's back.
Three games with Neo-Tokyo, 2-losses, including a game in which they allowed 15-runs to the woeful Akira. That was followed by a devastating (to the standings and wild card) 4-game sweep at Toyama - whom Aurora is 1-6 against, and a result that left Aurora 50-45 and 7.5 GB of Reno and suddenly 8-games behind Toyama and out of the WC standings.
Aurora got a reprieve, with Yuma on the schedule - Martin Gutierrez earring his 2nd win in his 4th start - a 4-0, 3-hitter, but after a 2-win pause to the slide, critical series losses to Tempe and Palm Springs. Those losses left Aurora 10-15 for July and 54-50 overall and a whopping 11-games back of Reno - who have opened a 9-game bulge over 2nd place Tempe - and the surging Codgers just 5.5 behind Aurora. The Borealis are just as close to the 5th place Bears as they are to first place as the Trade Deadline has arrived. The good news - a silver lining if you would, is Tempe, just 2-games ahead of Aurora, are the third wild card - so despite the doom and gloom, Aurora still has a chance.
But for the Borealis to take advantage of that chance, they will need to do better. During the past 5-week stretch, Aurora's Opponents Win % has been the lowest in all the SL - and look what that's done for them.
So here we are - at the trade deadline, where last year David Simmons was shipped off to Manchester for Pedro Macias. Aurora is in a spot where they could make a big move or they could blow it up. Will Topham has continued to express his frustration over the club's composition - his own doing, of course, but it's hard to pinpoint where and why things are going sideways.
Start with a tale as old as time - or so it seems - power. Last year Aurora broke out of their power funk and hit 162 - and with primarily the same squad, it was hopeful they'd repeat that. Thus for the have 61 in 104-game - a pace sure to finish under 100. They had 89 in 2037, and at this point that even looks like a stretch! The biggest disappointment has been Claudio Hernandez, who has just 6 on the year - after 123 the previous four seasons for Aurora and has been benched v. RHP for his .216 average - despite his .320 OBP. Rocky Kowalski has hit 9 - after having 31 in his first season on The Front Range, and is hitting .229 - and for those who count, a -0.7 WAR after a 2.8 last year. Rocky has been benched v. LHP for his .205 average - not that his .238 v. RHP is knocking folks socks off, but at least 8 of his 9 HR have come against righties.
Despite having the 4th best average, Aurora has scored just the 6th most runs - in a large part to the lack of power - they are 8th in doubles and ditto triples - something they normally excel at - and a lack of taking a walk, where they sit 15th in the SL. Sure, they have the fewest K and the most SB - but that illustrates how hard this team has to work to score runs - and it's clearly showing.
As of this moment the one member of the club hitting above their norm is Ruben Ortega, who is hitting .317 with 11 HR (2nd on the team), 42 RBI (3rd) and 35 SB (2nd). Add Juan Rodriguez to this storyline as the back-up infielder is hitting .325 and has yet to commit an error with plenty of playing time at all four infield positions.
All of which is too bad, for the pitching - though shaky at times, has the 4th best overall ERA and has allowed the fewest runs, fewest hits, fewest homers and has struck out the 3rd most hitters. Their lone concerning spots are walks (9th in the SL) and opponents average on balls in play - 12th, at .291 - which probably reflects the range Macias and Ortega bring to the infield - much less Arundale and Kowalski in the outfield.
The range issue may not improve much as Aurora has announced that that OF Mashimachi Daikawa has been demoted to AAA (with a .245 average after hitting .329 last year) and Hideki Nishikawa has been recalled after he hit .307 thus far with 8 HR, in an attempt to improve the offense. It's expected he will split time in the outfield and at DH in platoons with 'Matchbox' and Kowalski. 'Smitty' has also stolen 45 bases while with the Sun Dogs.
What's on Tap
August brings Yuma to Aurora and and then it's off to Bakersfield to open the month that is all Desert Hills, aside from an August 8-11 four game set in Japan with The Evil Evas, who lurk behind Aurora in the wild card chase. What changes may come for the Borealis with the Trade Deadline a Meer hours away, but if Aurora is to make a serious push at a playoff spot - and winning the division seems unlikely at this time, especially with just four-late September games with the Zephyrs on the schedule - but aside the four with Shin Seiki and four with Reno, they have 7-games with Tempe and three at Kalamazoo amongst the playoff contenders left on the schedule. Doing the math, of the 58 games left, only 18 of the 58 games left are against contenders. It's worth noting that Aurora continues to have the softest remaining schedule by win % - the opportunity is there, but can this team that is 5-4 v. BAK, 3-3 v. NT, 3-3 v. PS, 4-7 v. REN and 2-6 v. TEM, play with enough gumption and consistency to get the job done.