_*_*_ THE DANCE CARD _*_*_
A Blog of the Toyama Wind Dancers
PROSPECT WATCH 2024
#25-#21
For the last couple year's we've been swiping the Longshoreman's basic format of reviewing their minor leaguers. Despite certain sectors of the public decrying our unmitigated gall at heisting intellectual property (hey, only steal from the best, we say in response), it's been working pretty well. Given that, we figure now is not the time to grow a conscience. In order to appease the naysayers, however, this year we'll switch it up a little and start from the bottom and work our way to the top.
[Note: We're also doing this countdown-style because the folk who run the tabloid that our publisher just bought out says that this is a great way to increase tension. We're not sold on this, but we do think it interesting that they got the scoop on the story of Prince Harry having kinky conversation with an alien from Tau Ceti, so maybe they are onto something.]
We'll start by noting a few guys who are no longer on the list.
Seeing that pitcher 26 year-old
Bill Courtney, last year's #1, is making major waves with the Wind Dancers, we figure he aged out and graduated out. Likewise, third-baseman
Iván Juárez was last year's #2 prospect, but he played with the bigs well enough to be third in the league's ROY voting. Yeah, he's 24, so we could keep him on the list, but he's not a prospect anymore--he's a player.
Sotatsu Hirano (#6 last year) and
Sotaro Kimura (#22) had mediocre seasons after being called up, and fell off the list--though truthfully, Hirano probably belongs back on it somewhere...this leads us to our all around thinking about the group as a whole.
The Toyama/Lupin minor leagues have been an organization in constant transit. In the early days the club had a handful of guys who might make an impact, and entire squads of future couch salesmen. Then, the past year or two, Toyama's had a much deeper collection of impact players, a small zone of some interest, and then that vast wasteland of lottery ticket suckitude. After a pair of seasons of solid funding and under a new scouting director, the club has graduated some of its impact guys and hence has a smaller collection of obvious impacters. It does, however, have a collection of players that stretch out to the horizon that all appear to have some merit, and who, with a nip here or a tuck there, might just have real careers.
Hence the Hirano problem.
A final notable removal was closer
Shihei Matsubara, who at 25 is in AAA and is probably ready to pitch in the majors. He was #25 last year, but fell out this year despite posting 27 saves and a 4.31 ERA. The guy has a 99 MPH fastball and a curve that can be breathtaking. The problem is that for years and years the club;s #1 pick in the 2019 draft has also let the curve ball hang a bit too often (12 homers in 56 IP last year is not a pleasant concept, and doesn't translate to success at the parent club level). So right now, Mats is also a victim of the Hirano prolem, and finds himself sitting in the "others to watch category.
Anyway ... there's that.
On with the review, starting with:
#25 2B Yoshiaga Endo (21) - Key 2023 Numbers: .259/.289/.351, +9.5 ZR(A)
Last Year: #24
Yoshiaga is the second Endo that fans refer to in their conversation of an Endo and Endo DP combination, the first being, of course, rookie SS Yujiro Endo. Both are known as slick glove/slim bat kinds of players--guys Japanese fans love to win with. Yosiaga was promoted to A ball, and had a pretty nice little year that included 21 steals, 18 doubles, 3 triples, and six homers. He still has that spectacular glove. If that pop translates at AA and he can find some plate discipline, perhaps the fan's dreams of Endo-to-Endo-to-someone not named Endo will come true.
2024 Plan: Endo will be the starter in AA.
Top End Projection: All-Leather 2B who can steal a base
Most Likely Outcome: If he can hit AA pitching we'll get excited. Until then ... well ... let's just wait.
Concerns: The classic issue of can he hit.
#24 C Jonatahn Bell (19) - Key 2023 Numbers: .311/.359/.462, 2 HR, (SSA)
Last Year: Not rated
As one of the better defensive catchers in the organization, Bell has a lot of backers. As a guy who doesn't project to hit with a lot of power, he has his detractors. All you can say for sure is that last season was a solid bounce-back after struggling in his 18 year-old season (which, admittedly, is not unusual...high schoolers often take a year to settle out). Critics out there, specifically including the official OSA sanctioning committee, say he will never hit. This season should at least quell those comments a little bit, and the fact that he's a switchie might help him a bit.
2024 Plan: Finish the year at A-ball
Top End Projection: All-Star
Most Likely Outcome: Solid player, steady 3-4 WAR kind of guy
Concerns: Lack of power may limit his value.
#23 RHP Takaaki Matsui (26) - Key 2023 Numbers: 2-5, 3.80 ERA, 3.59 FIP (AAA)
Last Year: #23
While some wrote Matsui off after an atrocious 2022, insiders stuck by him and were rewarded with a pretty solid 2023. Given that he is now 26 years old we would normally remove him from the prospect list, but those same baseball insiders are now buzzing about how the kid from Noshiro has really seemed to have taken to the program. Some of those guys are even suggesting he might compete for a spot on the active roster this spring. We'll believe that when we see it, but we've learned not to doubt too heavily.
2024 Plan: Expect Matsui will find time in Toyama as an injury replacement.
Top End Projection: Solid member of a very good bullpen
Most Likely Outcome: Solid member of a decent bullpen
Concerns: Fastball and curve are PEBA quality, but that slider remained hittable.
#22 RHP Alexander Cooke (24) - Key 2023 Numbers: 5-3, 32 Saves, 2.92 ERA, 3.26 FIP (AA)
Last Year: #16
Is it possible to NOT like Alexander Cooke? With four seasons in the organization, the guy has proven that he knows the game, supports his team mates, and works his ... uh ... patooty off. And, yeah, despite his slip from #16 to #22 on our list, we like him quite a bit. His leftiness is a major asset, of course, and the fact that he's kept his fastball in the mid 90s bodes well.
2024 Plan: AAA, maybe a late-season call up
Top End Projection: Semi-elite closer
Most Likely Outcome: Solid reliever, spot set-up guy
Concerns: Everything points to success ... except ... well ... it would be nice to see the repertoire fill in a bit more, you know, add a bit of movement to the fastball, make the slider a touch more "slidey." Otherwise, we wonder if PEBA hitters will find him a bit less challenging than the AA guys.
#21 CF Noriyuki Matsui (25) - Key 2023 Numbers: .134/.171/.164, +3.5 ZR (36 PEBA games) +4.9 ZR (39 AAA games)
Last Year: #20
In last season's review, we asked Matsui's slump was just a slump. This year, he proved it wasn't. He did not hit in his call up as an injury replacement, and he didn't hit in AAA as a starter. What he did, however, was field. His play in spring training brought pitchers to watch from from miles around and had them leaving the park with smiles absolutely pasted on their faces. His time with the big club as John Martin's injury replacement was no different. The guy flashes serious glove.
But, you know, the chicks ... they don't dig the glove so much if you don't win, and it's damned hard to win when you hit .134.
And that's all a shame. I mean, man ... the kid has enough speed to steal 35-40 bases if he gets 500 at bats,
and that's without hitting a bit. If he lays down a .350 OBP, he might steal 80. You've already heard about the glove. And in the clubhouse there are few players as liked as Matsui is.
Fingers crossed guys, fingers crossed.
2024 Plan: Rumors say he'll start in PEBA. We don't believe the rumors.
Top End Projection: All Leather CF who can dink enough and run enough to stay on a team.
Most Likely Outcome: You can't look at that offense and see a PEBA player.
Concerns: One has to wonder if he has a family business to fall back on.