Blast Off in the IBC

A year after five players dominated Matthieu Sicco’s year-old record 38 home runs in a season, Dermott Douglas of the Cairo Pharaohs and Pedro Hernandez of the Goheung Gom are on pace to smash the record that former top amateur draft pick Hung Cai set in 2035. Cai’s 52 homers marked the IBC’s first 50+ homerun season, and now just one season later, both Hernandez and Dermott are on pace to hit nearly 60 each around the halfway mark of the season.

Are these outcomes freak occurrences or part of a larger pattern? The latter seems to be the case. Run per game increased dramatically in 2035 – from 2030 through 2034 the average was 4.59 runs per game and in 2035 that increased to 5.14. To date in 2036, the total mark is nearly identical: 5.12. The differences in home runs are more dramatic still. After several years of stable home run totals, in 2034 the total home runs hit in the IBC increased an incredible 59% over the previous year. The league has continued to increase home run output in 2035 (1.25 HRs/game: +36% over ’34). Now in 2036, rates have increased again another 42% so far on the year to 1.78 HRs per game. This represents more than a tripling of home runs since the first four seasons of the league. For reference, in PEBA over the last several years, rates have ranged from a 26-year low in 2027 of just 0.81 HRs per game to a 12-year high of 1.06 HRs per game in 2030. As the 2036 season marches deep into the dog days of August, teams are hitting 0.94 HRs per game. So, it appears that the trend in the IBC is not something that has made its way to the majors. Perhaps it never will, but whatever the reason, the trend is real.

Fans of the long ball can rejoice in the phenomenon while fans of a different brand of baseball may lament it, but if nothing else, the HR race in the IBC is red hot!

 

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