March 23^rd, 2011
Larry Carmello, sporthaven.net

The Kalamazoo Badgers have experienced something of a turnaround of their March-time fortunes since I penned the first half of this article just over a week ago.  I opened this article with news of a frustrated offense and woeful record of 2-7 over the opening nine games of the Badgers’ 2011 Spring Training program.  Nine days and eight games later, the Badgers are just below .500 at 8-9.

Following their inauspicious start to the preseason, Badgers GM Mark Knight was quick to defend his team.  He comfortably admitted that he was still settling in to his new role in Kalamazoo and that he was using the March training games as a chance to experiment with his lineup in preparation for the coming season.

It seems that the alarm bells that were set ringing with the fans following a worrying first nine game also struck a note in the back offices at Portage Park, as the team seems a lot more focused since their win over a struggling Yuma on the 13^th.

As I have previously stipulated, I’m not sure of the value of results in this preseason period.  I think the only insight to be gained during this time is into players, giving some indication to how they will play at least in the early stages of the season.  Still, it will be reassuring to Knight that the slide has seemingly stopped before it could gather too much momentum.

Following on from my preview of the Badgers’ offense last week, let’s take a look at the pitching for the 2011 season.

Defense

In years past, the Badgers have been noted for their excellent pitching, but they are coming off a year where their team ERA was the highest in their history.  It is clear that the kind of performances on the mound that the Badgers put together in their first two seasons in the league is now behind us.  With a lack of many major acquisitions in the offseason to strengthen the rotation, is it unlikely that they will be able to improve on their mediocre performance of last season?

Starting Rotation

Bobby Hartle, 2007’s winningest pitcher, may be gone from the team this season, but I’m not sure this will have a negative effect on the team as a whole.  Indeed, over the course of his career he has walked more batters than any other pitcher in PEBA history.  His absence from the pitching staff in 2011 will serve to clear the way for some of the Badgers of the future.

Leading the way at the top of the rotation this year will, of course, be Er Hang.  The 25-year-old Taiwanese lefty has now been a part of the rotation for two years, with limited success.  His arrival into the Kalamazoo organization in 2008 saw him slotted straight into a starting spot for the AAA Grand Rapids Rafters.  18 starts in the GBB earned Hang some very solid numbers.  His ERA – under 1.50 over 120 innings pitched – earned him a trip to the GBB All-Star Game and a place in the Badgers’ bullpen for the rest of the season.  His relief starts for Kalamazoo in 2008 went well without turning as many heads as did his arrival to the league in the first place.

Signing with the Badgers straight out of the Taiwanese leagues was something of a coup for Hang, who was not eligible for the draft.  The way he was swept through the minor league system certainly caught the attention of the press, but 2009 was to be the year that he really demonstrated his potential.  Starting 31 games that season, Hang posted a 3.25 ERA, getting 178 strikeouts in the process.  The fact that he allowed less hits than he had Ks that year along with his 17-8 final record were probably vital factors in his PEBA All-Star appearance in what was essentially his rookie year at SP.

Last season saw Hang’s ERA rise to 3.50 and his win-loss record fall below .500 at 13-14.  He also found himself struggling against power bats.  While in ’09 batters had only hit him for 14 homers the whole season, last season he allowed more than double that number of round-trippers.  Reigning in power bats on a field like Portage Park is paramount, and Hang will want to return this particular stat to where in was in ’09.

There were positives in 2010 for Hang, however, as he continued to consistently strike batters out with similar success as he had in 2009.  Signs of improving stamina were also welcome for Badgers fans, as he pitched for 25 more innings than he had a year previously and managed to stave off injury for the entire season.

This really is the season for Hang to step up.  The Badgers only real claim to having a legitimate ace is this kid.  His play will, in my opinion, be absolutely pivotal to the team’s success in 2011.  If he can reign in his ERA back below 3.30 while continuing to strikeout important bats, I expect that Hang could finish the season with 20 wins.  This would be a coup for the Badgers because of Hang’s tender age.  He could play major league ball for another ten years if he stays healthy, and right now, building a starting rotation around this guy doesn’t seem like such a bad idea for Mark Knight.

One of the reasons I think Er Hang will have a good season is that he has really put some effort into perfecting his English for the 2011 season.  The language barrier seemed to play a factor under the old management at Portage Park, so Hang has got his head down and is now almost fully conversational in “Sports English”, a language which in years gone by mostly consisted of manly grunting and patting on the butt but is now a complicated science in itself.  GM Knight has apparently spent quite a bit of time with this player over the course of the preseason, so it would seem Hang has a place in his long-term plans for the club.

So the first spot in the Badgers’ rotation is a lock for Hang, and I expect him to perform.  Where my doubts lie is in the rest of the club’s starting talent.  Pat Paige is getting on in years heading towards the new season.  At 33, he is certainly no spring chicken, and most critics would probably point to Paige as an example of a player who has consistently gotten worse in every single season he has been in the league.  His 4.37 ERA from last season is certainly a far cry from the 2.03 mark that he posted in his only winning season four years ago.

Indeed, his 2007 ERA was second-best in the league and he represented the SL All-Stars that year, but he has lost ground with age over the last three seasons.  A 5-hit shutout against the Tempe Knights in 2009 was a shining beacon in a career which has become rapidly stale since his debut.  Having said that, Paige isn’t awful.  His numbers last season may have been the worst of his career and it would be prudent for Badgers fans to expect him to face fewer batters this season as his age takes his toll on stamina, but he has remained injury-free throughout the season, so expect him to pitch upwards of 170 innings this coming season.  He won’t reach the All-Star Game again, but Paige has a good chance to prove this season from the number 2 spot that his career season in 2007 wasn’t just a flash in the pan.  A big key to his game will be zone discipline, as Paige has a nasty tendency to lose control and issue large numbers of walks every season.

José Chávez is a very interesting (and potentially great) choice for the third starter’s spot for the Badgers in 2011.  He is just 26 years old and has already started consistently since the inaugural season in 2007.  His numbers may not have been stellar over the last three years, but his ’07 season gave cause for celebration in Kalamazoo.  His 2.67 ERA over the course of his 32 games was enough to ensure that the then 22-year-old got his selection to the All-SL team that year.  Much like Paige, the man who acted as mentor for Chávez during his first couple of seasons in the majors, his ERA has been rising since the ’07 season.  However, next to Er Hang, Chávez is clearly the brightest hope for the Badgers long-term pitching future.

His great potential is due in no small part to the fact that he can throw seven – count ‘em, seven – pitches, and he can throw them all equally well.  It is the diversity of his pitches that has allowed Chávez to pitch in a remarkable nine complete games over his four years in the PEBA.  He has shut batters out five of those nine times.  Despite this, Chávez is something of a jack-of-all-pitches but master of none.  He has an impressive forkball, but can’t throw for any heat and lacks a really strong out pitch.

Last season saw Chávez back in winning form.  He posted a career-high .619 win%, winning 13 of 21 decisions on the back of consecutive losing seasons.  His stats in 2008 and ’09 were disappointing when compared to his rookie season, with strikeouts, ERA and opponent’s average all taking a noticeable hit, but 2010 saw those statistics turn around.  He managed a 3.46 ERA while limiting his opponents to a .246 average, and he probably would have struck out close to 150 had a hamstring injury not ruled him out for the entire month of July.

Arbitration rears its ugly head at the end of the season for Chávez, who will look to maximize his payout with a quality year in 2011.  While it is unlikely that he will replicate his great numbers of 2007, I think he could be a very important part of the Badgers rotation this season.  Interestingly, he has been making his appearances from the bullpen so far in Spring Training.  It’s a confusing strategy from Mark Knight, who has described himself as a huge fan of Chávez’s pitching abilities.  Chalk this one up to the “experimentation” that the Badgers manager spoke of.

This experimentation, incidentally, has lead to António Betancourt getting four starts so far during March.  Despite reasonable minor league numbers, the 24-year-old former number 1 draft pick may be some way off a start in the majors.  His Spring Training ERA of 8.80 is hardly encouraging, and he has lost both of his decisions.  I expect to see him back at AAA level before the start of the season.

Mike Brown has also been brought up to the majors by Knight for the duration of Spring Training.  Brown has stated publically that he views this as a chance to prove that he is ready to start in the big leagues and hopes to capitalize on this opportunity.  So far he has been decidedly pedestrian in his approach, with an ERA over 7.00.  His 15 strikeouts are a reason for optimism, however, especially when you consider that this is another player who can claim seven good pitches, with a particularly good forkball.  Remind you of anyone?

I can see Brown getting a start in 2011 despite the fact that he has spent most of his career to date in the bullpen.  His first start since college came at AAA level last season, where he started 10 of his 28 games for Grand Rapids.  His numbers were solid, he recorded a high number of Ks and kept his opponents to a .208 average.  Does this warrant a PEBA start?  Probably not, to be honest.  But Knight seems to like this guy and, unlike his experiment with Betancourt, I think this one will probably stick.

The fifth starter should probably go to Geoff James, who has started 127 games over four seasons for the Badgers.  His first two seasons were very successful; he kept a low ERA while attaining a good number of strikeouts.  During May of 2007, he became the first player to ever pitch a no-hitter in the PEBA.  Time, however, is not on his side.  At 35, he is the oldest member of the K-Zoo roster, and his arm was evidently not what in once was over the stretch last season.  He posted a career-worst 4.78 ERA while throwing 50 less strikeouts than his 2009 tally.  I still expect him to get the go, at least for the first part of the season, despite competition from Allan Dennis.

Dennis has been a player who has consistently performed very well in the minor leagues but has dramatically misfired when given a shot in the PEBA.  He will need to put in some huge performances over the next two weeks if he is to be considered for a permanent starting role.  At 32, if he can’t get it going in the majors this season, it could be the end of the line for a possible big-league finish to his career.

Bullpen

Last year’s bullpen was little more than an average cog in an average pitching machine.  This coming season, it is likely that both Mike Brown and Geoff James will rely heavily on early relief, so the middle relievers on this team will be crucial.

Octávio Estrada, having led the way in innings pitched from the bullpen last season, will begin 2011 with the Manchester Maulers.  After suffering a serious injury in September that ruled him out for the remainder of the season, the Badgers elected to allow the 34-year-old to test free agency.  I expect Salvador Sánchez, Domenico Calasanz and the recently acquired Hoyt Howard to pick up the slack and pitch a fair amount of innings in 2011.

Sánchez can probably be counted on for about 70 innings again this year.  While his talent is never going to set the world on fire, he has a good number of pitches for a reliever.  Although he has been used mostly in a setup role for the Badgers over the last four seasons, his five good pitches make him an ideal candidate for 3 or 4 innings per game in middle relief this year.  He will hope his ERA can pull itself back to the 2.91 mark he set in ’08.  34 years old, Sánchez probably has one great season left in him before he hangs up his boots; let’s hope it’s this one.

Calasanz is one of only two Italian nationals to be gracing the PEBA with his presence this season (the other being the young and speedy Arrighetto Cipolloni, whose smart defense will likely see him get a shot in the majors this year with New Jersey).  Calasanz will be hoping to bring some Italian passion to his approach this year after a poor season last year saw his playing time cut.  As he proved in 2009, he has the goods to compile a good record out of middle relief, finishing 10-2 that year.  So far in Spring Training he has worked his ERA back down to 3.00 from last year’s 5.57, hopefully a sign of things to come during the regular season.

Hoyt Howard, acquired from the Sandgnats recently in exchange for Tetsui Sakai, has been an important tool in the Sandgnats’ very impressive bullpen over the past four seasons.  His consistently sub-3.25 ERA comes with a 95 MPH fastball that is good for one strikeout for every inning he pitches on average, and he issues comparatively few walks.  The Badgers will want Howard to stay healthy throughout 2011, as he is good for two innings in every appearance, something the Badgers will need from him as cover for the aging Geoff James.  So far this March, Howard has been somewhat fortunate to accumulate two winning decisions in the four games he has had a hand in since his trade to the Badgers.

Mun-cheol Im and Tomokazu Komatsu will likely also feature in the 2011 bullpen.  Mun-cheol has been aiming to get himself the closer’s job in 2011, although I see him as more of a setup reliever.  He returns to American baseball after a two-year world tour that saw him play both in Korea and Mexico.  His numbers last season were mediocre at best, and he lacks the strikeout capability that is so important for a closer at the major league level.

Komatsu has also picked up a few saves during his time with the Badgers, although he has also struggled with blown saves in his career.  He brings a very good slider with him to the bullpen but has failed to demonstrate K-numbers that have turned heads, and I see him being another player who is not quite good enough to get the saves this season.  So that pretty much leaves one player for the final spot in the ‘pen…

Closer

The man that Mark Knight has entrusted with closing it out so far in the preseason, John Page, has probably been the team’s best pitcher to this point.  In seven innings in March, Page has not allowed one earned run while striking out eight and keeping his OAVG to a very respectable .190.

Page joined the Badgers in July of ’09 in a trade with Arlington that saw Pedro “No Name” Chávez go the other way.  Page’s time with the Bureaucrats was highly successful; he was 14-8 as a reliever for the team, with 2008 being a particularly standout year for him.  His tenure in Kalamazoo has been less inspiring thus far, but I think that he could potentially excel this season at the closer position.  In addition to a good fastball that tips the gun at 95 MPH, Page possesses a devastating slider that seems of move from one edge of the strike zone to the other as it crosses home plate.  This out pitch has ensured Page 220 K in his career to date, a figure I can see rapidly rising if he continues to demonstrate the form that he has shown in preseason.

Verdict

There are signs of promise from this staff, though there is also a lingering threat that the entire rotation could unravel badly.  Here we have a pitching staff that has some clear potential talent in the forms of Er Hang and José Chávez in particular, but for whatever reason this potential talent failed to turn into wins last season.  Mark Knight will be hoping that the renewed energy that his arrival has brought to the club will begin to work its magic soon upon these sleeping giants.  If it works well, expect Chávez, Hang and Mike Brown to start attracting some very serious attention.

The aging arms of Pat Paige and Geoff James will require solid backup from the bullpen this season, so expect Knight to include at least seven relievers in his early-season roster.  For the most part, the ‘pen is solid.  While they won’t walk away with the best bullpen ERA in the league, it is doubtful that they will make too many bad mistakes.

I’ll be catching up with the Badgers again at the end of March to take a closer look at what the team as a whole will bring to the league in 2011.  Until next time, folks.