An Unusually Early Trade Season Turns Deadline into Afterthought

by Sarah Rodriguez, Triple Crown Analytics

July 31, 2013: NEW YORK, NY – George Brown says it’s downright disturbing.

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” said the 53-year-old PEBA employee.  Brown has been working in the commissioner’s office since the 2008 season.  Brown’s responsibilities involve filing and confirming the paperwork teams submit to the Commissioner upon completion of a trade.  In the run-up to the trade deadline, Brown says he typically logs overtime for at least two weeks prior to the yearly July 31^st deadline.  This year, he says, has been completely different.

“It’s like a ghost town,” Brown stated, gesturing around his office.  “No phones, no faxes, nothing.  Heck, normally at this time I’m calling up interns over in the SL to get ‘em to resubmit forms.  Those guys never know what they’re doing.”

The facts support Brown’s personal experience.  With one day remaining for deadline deals, 2013 has seen one of the quietest mid-season markets in league history.  Last year, 14 trades were made in the month of July.  The year before that, 25.  The previous seasons saw 17, 15, 15 and 11.  So far this year, PEBA teams have completed only three trades in the final month before the deadline.

Yet there has been no shortage of dealing, in quantity or quality.  The trading frenzy arrived early in 2013, as June saw many upcoming free agents sent to contending teams, a perfectly expected type of trade normally not seen until July.  Orlando Valadez, Greg White, Jason Oliver, Guonçalle Malatestiano, Alberto Semblano and Aaron Turner all found new homes with teams expecting to make a run into October – and all of them did so a month earlier than normal.  That leaves the market for trades extremely dry in the final days.

Probably the most talked-about trade is one that doesn’t match the standard mold, as multiple sources have confirmed the Bakersfield Bears have engaged in talks with several teams about superstar Pat Lilly.  The Bears, currently tied with the Tempe Knights for both SL wildcard spots, have been appropriately cautious about moving their star player in the middle of a pennant chase.  Lilly, after infamously letting slip that he would enjoy playing close to home at a press conference in the off-season, has since then remained completely focused on the season in front of him.

After him, the market drops off considerably (but what market wouldn’t?).  Infielder John Collins of Kalamazoo will be a free agent after the season and the collective wisdom is that the Badgers don’t have the money to re-sign him.  No reputable reports have connected him to any deals.  Starter Pedro Cruz of Canton is easily the best pitcher remaining after Semblano was dealt to Arlington.  A rumored deal with New Jersey allegedly fell apart early last week, and since then his name has appeared in connection with both Aurora and Fargo.  Aurora seems an unlikely fit and Fargo has so far been noncommittal about its commitment to 2013.  Canton’s surprising performance this season has entered second-year manager Harry Toner into Manager of the Year speculation, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the Longshoremen attempt to re-sign Cruz.

Brown does not know the reason for the early arrival of the trading frenzy.  “It’s just one of those things, I guess.  Everyone’s doing it!  Peer pressure!” he laughed.  “Now, last month was busy!  This month, let’s just say I’ve had plenty of time to devote to my fantasy team.

“I suppose San Antonio will make me come anyway,” sighed Brown.  “They do every year.”  The inevitable lengthy fax from Laredo has become a summer tradition in PEBA headquarters, but don’t expect any last-minute moves from San Antonio to shake up the playoff picture.  For better or for worse, the big moves have already been made, and the contenders are set for the second half of the long road to the postseason.