Saturday, July 25, 2009

Picking up where I left off with the Baseball America top 10 list, here are the remaining players rated six through ten on the list.  I wanted to add one more stat for the pitchers, which there are two of on this list (there were no pitchers listed in the top five).  The stat is Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP for short.  Here is a description of FIP from The Hardball Times.  FIP looks at how well a pitcher performs in regard to the results directly under his control (i.e. non-fielded outcomes).  I'm admittedly concerned about the factor used to normalize the FIP number to a typical ERA stat, so take it with a grain of salt.  In any case it will help to squeeze out variance in performance due to defensive variables.

6.  LF Orlando Carmona – Charleston Statesmen

20, AA-ball, 6'0”, 215 lbs., LH

374 AB, .281/.338/.321, .659 OPS, .673 lgOPS, 4.3 VORP, 24/77 BB:K ratio, 2.21 RF in LF

Carmona  projects to being a solid corner outfield defender with good contact skills and decent OBP skills.  He will have enough speed to steal some bases and may turn out to be more of a top of the order hitter rather than middle of the order.  He is struggling to do much with his hits (only 11 extra base hits out of his 105 total hits), and is a singles hitter right now.  He has struggled in the past two months at AA with a .520 OPS in June and a .597 OPS in July.  Young for the AA level, he may need some more seasoning at the A-ball level if he is unable to turn around his season (he hit over .700 OPS in the first two months at AA).  He has an over 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio that is a bit alarming for a non-power hitter.  Will need to improve his walk rate,  add at least doubles/gap power, and may benefit from repeating AA or being demoted to A-ball (not a problem in regards to his prospect status, as he would still be young for A-ball).

7.  SS Raul García – Kalamazoo Badgers

24, ML, 6'0”, 200 lbs., RH

373 AB, .276/.353/.362, .714 OPS, .732 lgOPS, 18.6 VORP, 42/57 BB:K ratio, 36 SB, 76.6 SB%, 4.31 RF at SS

García is now in his rookie season in the PEBA and is showing promise.  A solid defensive shortstop with plus plus speed and ability to steal bases coupled with a solid OBP for a rookie.  His strikeout-to-walk ratio is good and his contact skills show through with his .276 batting average.   He has already won the PEBA Rookie of the Month Award for April and May of this season.  Being that he looks to remain at a valuable skill position (SS), he looks to be a player that will post solid VORP numbers for his career.  He'll likely never be a homerun threat, but his solid gap power and speed can make up for it with extra base hits and the ability to keep pitchers on their toes while he dances on the base paths.  A solid player enjoying success in his rookie year.

8.  SP Douglas Bonsink – Florida Featherheads

18, AA-ball, 6'0”, 185 lbs., RHP, 87-89 MPH

79.0 IP, 3.87 ERA, 3.43 lgERA, 5.92 K/9, 2.05 BB/9, 48 GB%, 3.06 FIP, .308 BABIP

Bonsink is going to be an extreme control pitcher; he's already on his way to mastering the art of reducing walk totals to a near-sub 2 per nine innings pace.  He can stand to increase his strike out rates a bit but already posts a solid K:BB ratio and, as an 18-year-old, is way ahead of the curve.  He'll likely never post eye-popping strikeout totals as he lacks the dominant speed to do so, and he will have to develop some more movement on his pitches to avoid the long ball as he is not a strong groundball pitcher.  Right now he remains on track to be a solid front end of the rotation starter; not sure if he will make it as a no. 1, but control starters tend to surprise the traditionalist scouts at the ML level and post no. 1 and no. 2 starter numbers.  There is nothing overly concerning about his height and he will likely fill in a bit more as he ages, maybe adding a tic or two to his fastball.

9.  1B Mike Arnopp – Fargo Dinosaurs

23, AA-ball, 6'8”, 215 lbs., LH

334 AB, .278/.358/.380, .738 OPS, .691 lgOPS, 17.8 VORP, 39/47 BB:K ratio,  7.76 RF at 1B

Arnopp was just promoted to AAA, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the transition.  He didn't dominate AA but held a strong walk-to-strikeout rate and showed good contact skills for a first baseman.  There is some concern as the power has yet to really develop, but as a physical specimen there are few players that don't have to look up to Arnopp (literally).  He towers over most players at 6'8” and projects to be a solid middle of the order power hitter with solid OBP and contact skills; an all-around hitter.   Success for Arnopp will rest on his ability to develop his projected power, as he is not strong enough defensively to move to a less power-demanding position.  Because of his size and scouting reports, he will be considered a failed prospect if he does not develop into a middle of the order hitter.  At this point he only looks as if he'll hit 15-20 HR.

10.  SP Adrián Reséndez – Connecticut Nutmeggers

23, ML, 6'1”, 205 lbs., RHP, 91-93 MPH

87.2 IP, 2.36 ERA, 3.86 lgERA, 7.39 K/9, 4.11 BB/9, 54 GB%, 4.41 FIP, .217 BABIP

Reséndez recently suffered bone chips in his elbow that will sideline him for the rest of the season (7-8 months), an unfortunate blow to the prospect.  Reséndez was showing promise with an excellent ERA, K-rate and solid groundball inducing numbers.  BABIP and FIP indicate that he was getting quite lucky, though, with his batted balls in play, and that he will need to work on improving his control, reducing his walks per nine innings and adding some movement to his pitches to help reduce the home runs given up.  Reséndez throws hard enough that it looks as though the strike out numbers are real and should be repeatable barring continued injury or arm problems.  He's made it to the big leagues already, which says a lot about this prospect.  Connecticut fans are hoping the injury will only be a temporary set back to this promising young arm and not an indication of recurring injuries to come.

–Steve Youngblood, Fargo Gazette