ABP: Dixie Delivered
By Jonas McPhee, American Baseball Perspective
Friday, March 27, 2009
Dixie Division
Key departures: SP Anthony Cox, 2B David Koch
Key Arrivals: C Jeffery Graham, SP Andrés “Genocide” Díaz
Roster Movement Analysis: The Statesmen are banking on the fact that Jeffery Graham has put behind him the bad years and will start being the producer that scouts have always raved about. GM Jon Constantine had this to say about Graham: “Catcher Jeffrey Graham is the most notable of the new faces you may see in a Statesmen uniform. While he hasn't faired all to well in the PEBA, our scouts project a break-out season for him. An extreme favorite for the All-Leather Award, he is a huge compliment to our improving pitching staff.” If he doesn’t then fans will be quick to start chanting Isidoro Pérez’s name. Koch hit for good average but wasn’t really a big part of the offense, only scoring 50 runs last season (though he did knock in 63). Díaz comes to the PEBA after having two very successful seasons in Winter League play, and even if his translation to the PEBA is only moderately successful he will be a great 3 or 4 guy for the rotation, and much better than Anthony Cox.
2009 Outlook: 95-67, Third Place
Analysis: Charleston fields practically the same team as last year, which was very explosive in scoring runs. The question which hangs over several of their players is whether or not they can repeat the same performance. 2008 IL Wunderkind Award winner Orlando García, Winter League transplant Gabriel Negrón and Jeff “Cajun” Wilson must produce at similar elevated levels in order for the team to enjoy similar – and perhaps even greater – success this season. The Statesmen’s pitching staff struggled with consistency, especially the starting rotation. Tetsu Takuda earned run average doubled and Anthony Cox underachieved as well. However, this season should feature a much improved staff with the 1-2-3 punch of Dean “Fate” O'Monahan, Carlos Cervantes and Andrés “Genocide” Díaz, and the team is hopeful about the continuing development of Francisco Cabral. The Statesmen could make the Dixie competition very interesting if they get similar offense as last year and improved pitching. They may be one or two players from the top teams in the Dixie but they could be the surprise team to take the last Wild Card spot. GM Constantine is cautiously optimistic. “While I think we can build on our 87-win season last year, I think the Dixie Division will come down to another New Orleans and West Virginia showdown. I don't believe we improved our pitching enough to be able to compete with either of the two. I believe Florida will provide a great challenge for the runner-up spot to the Wild Card.”
Offensive MVP: Jeff Wilson, though it will probably be too close to choose just one
Pitching MVP: Carlos Cervantes, though O’Monahan will certainly give him a run for his money
Key departures: 1B António Coronado
Key Arrivals: SS Miguel Soto
Roster Movement Analysis: Coronado is gone, but he takes with him hopes and could-have-been thoughts, not solid stats. Miguel Soto comes in as an instant upgrade at shortstop. Charismatic team owner Drew Streets had this to say about Florida’s offseason: “I think our team has improved greatly. With new ownership and personnel, we have established a new mindset in the organization. We have reenergized the state of Florida. Besides a new attitude, the acquisition of Soto along with internal development has improved our team greatly.”
2009 Outlook: 84-78, Fourth Place
Analysis: If having a positive attitude was all it took to win championships then Florida would have the Rodriguez Cup locked down for the foreseeable future. Streets simply gushes optimism. “Just like a poker player, you're always looking to win it all. If you set your sights any lower then how do you expect to win? I expect the Featherheads to win it all! Even when I have pocket deuces, I expect to see a pair of twos in the community cards.” Streets continues, “Last I checked every team has 0 wins and 0 losses. So with that said, I think we have a good chance of making the playoffs just like any other team does. But since I believe in us winning the championship I must say our chances to make the playoffs has got to be 100%!” Unfortunately for Streets it takes a lot more than just a positive attitude to make it all the way to November. One thing you can count on this season is that Florida is going to mash the ball early and often. Richardson, who is simply the best 2B in the PEBA, is joined by fellow mashers Tsumemasa Morimoto and Colin Rodmell. The team will live and die by the ability to produce extra base hits, and these three players carry the Featherheads offense and fortunes in 2009. Florida is hopeful that many of the younger players will step up and contribute, but that is often a slow process. The Featherheads have a solid starting three, including the spectacular Chris Saunders – if he can stay healthy. The back end of the rotation is weak at best and scary at worst, and combined with an average bullpen spells trouble for the Featherheads. Unless the Featherheads’ pitching staff can put together a full season of elevated play, they will find themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Offensive MVP: Mark Richardson hands down
Pitching MVP: Chris Saunders, especially if he can stay healthy
Key Departures: 2B Morihiro Takaki, CL Miguel Lozano, SP Jorge Sánchez
Key Arrivals: SP Xue-qin Yuan
Analysis: Takaki’s retirement was an early Christmas gift for GM Duane Rudis. Lozano and Sánchez were pitchers who could bring value to a team that is pretty far away from competition. Rudis is focused on improving the financial aspect of the team in order to eventually improve the on field performance. “We have improved financially – actually showing a profit in 2008 – and look to continue this new approach. Without money we can't get players and therefore can't improve out fan loyalty or interest. Besides that, more money in the bank means more drinks for me and my entourage.” It is unclear whether Rudis or Shatner contributed to the later part of the statement. Yuan is returning to Kentucky in hopes to restart his career. Rudis’ take on picking up Yuan: “We also brought back Yuan from our inaugural season. He spent the past 2 years completely disappointing management and fans everywhere in the PEBA (San Antonio, Tempe, New Jersey, Yuma). We are praying that he has learned to pitch and can actually get a few batters out without giving up runs.”
2009 Outlook: 60-102, tied for Fifth
Analysis: Kentucky finished last in nearly every team statistical category last year, both batting and pitching. The team is full of youngsters who are learning to develop the hard way, facing PEBA-level pitching and hitting in what is arguably one of the best divisions in the league. Thoroughbreds faithful are hoping that Eduardo “Pappy” Molina will continue to grow into his potential and take another step forward in his career. Rudis indicated that his eye would be on OF Sancho Martínez, saying, “He will be in his 2nd full season in the bigs, and he attended Winter Ball. We are expecting him to learn his role and assist Ignacio Lopes with his poop-scoopin duty. (Did I just say ‘duty’?)” The starting rotation has one standout and that is Jerry “Sooner” Armstrong, though their bullpen is very solid even with the loss of Lozano. It will be another year of suffering for Kentucky fans waiting on the development of young players and especially the development of prospects picked from the first two PEBA amateur drafts
Offensive MVP: Molina will shine
Pitching MVP: Gonna roll the dice and go with Yuan as the staff ace
Key Departures: OF Cooper Scott, SP Chris Nicholson, 3B Dominic Gagné, 1B Augusto Valdéz
Key Arrivals: SP Alberto Semblano, OF Roberto Rodríguez, SP José Morales, OF Claudio Córdova
Roster Movement Analysis: The Trendsetters sent over-the-hill Scott and an aging Nicholson in exchange for Semblano and Rodríguez, both of whom are younger and in their prime. Semblano could easily be a number 2 or 3 starter on the majority of PEBA staffs. Morales slides into the fifth position in the starting rotation, easily making him the best 5th starter in the PEBA. Córdova is a late pickup and brings a good bat and a good eye to the lineup. The Trendsetters lose their corner infielders, who were both significant parts of last year’s championship team. “Sure, I think we will miss those guys, but we feel as though we have gotten better with an upgrade at LF and now Claudio coming to join the team as well,” stated GM Paul Tanner.
2009 Outlook: 104-58, First place
Analysis: The Trendsetters look to defend their 2008 PEBA championship with a familiar formula: strong pitching coupled with timely hitting. The Trendsetters had the top starting rotation and a top-three bullpen, and their 2009 pitching staff may be even better. Of course the centerpiece of the whole rotation is 2-time Golden Arm award winner Conan McCullough. Look for the pitching staff to continue its dominance again in 2009. On the hitting side of things the Trendsetters were streaky and suffered from the lack of production at times. With the addition of Rodríguez the Trendsetters have a three, four and five hitter who can all easily hit .300/30 home runs/100 RBIs. Claudio Córdova brings in the ability to get on base through hits and walks, something the top of the order struggled with last year. The Trendsetters are relying on role players to fill in at a few spots this year, including 1B and 3B. One player that Tanner is particularly excited about in terms of development is SS/2B Leonard Martin. As with all teams, the key is for the stars to stay healthy, and if they do the Trendsetters should end up first in the Dixie Division for the third year in a row. While West Virginia and Charleston offer intriguing challenges, conventional wisdom points to the Trendsetters pitching staff helping them come out on top.
Offensive MVP: Ernest Conard, whose name was mentioned in the same sentence as Royal Raker last year
Pitching MVP: Who else but golden boy himself Conan McCullough
San Antonio Calzones of Laredo
Key Departures: 1B Octávio Pexego, SP Alberto Semblano, OF Roberto Rodríguez, SP José Morales, OF Jack Miller, 3B Michael Kelly, etc…
Key Arrivals: OF Cooper Scott, SP Chris Nicholson, SP Bill Taylor, C Manuel González, SP Luis Peña, MR Hisashi 'Gigolo' Oike
Roster Movement Analysis: After two disappointing seasons for the Calzones, the roster entered swing door mode, with some players barely making it in the door before being shoved back out. The arrivals are key because they seem to be the players who are staying, at least for now. GM Matt Higgins had this to say about his team: “Only the bullpen improves. The rest of the team is a work in progress. But the lower payroll this year will put the team on firm financial ground.”
2009 Outlook: 60-102, tied for Fifth
Analysis: The Calzones are planning to be a major mover and shaker in the 2009 offseason, which is to say they just want to survive the 2009 season. The team’s offense was tremendous at getting hits, just not at key times. This year the team may struggle just to get base runners. San Antonio is looking for youth to step up, but as noted with Kentucky it is normally a long process filled with both valleys and peaks. One particular player Higgins is taking a long look at is Tim Eaton, saying, “(He) needs to solidify the leadoff spot for the Calzones. Great numbers at AAA, but needs to do it at the PEBA level if the Calzones are to finally resolve the revolving door at the leadoff spot. Martin Griffin (is) waiting in the wings if Eaton stumbles.” The starting rotation is not terrible. It features two pitchers who pitched in the IL playoffs last year, but the rest of the rotation will tend to struggle. The bullpen seems to be a high point for the Calzones as they should effectively be able to protect any leads in the latter innings, which may not be very often.
Offensive MVP: Aquino or Thomas, because they are not currently in a platoon
Pitching MVP: Chris Nicholson or Luis Peña
Key Departures: OF Charles McGuire, C Rob Wright, 1B Michizane Kouki, C , MR Shigeaki Otani, SP Ralph Dean
Key Arrivals: SP Alfredo Pinto, SP Jorge Hernández, MR Terry Farmer, OF Bernardo Marín, 1B Ernest Kaufman, OF Jeff Patterson, C Ching-hsia Chin
Roster Movement Analysis: West Virginia had little home run power last year, and GM Tyler Babcock has looked to remedy that situation through the acquisition of Kaufman (who spent last season in Mexico) and Patterson (who spent last year with a cracked skull). Bernardo Marín is also a superstar bat. Babcock hopes that Chin will be able take on the catcher’s role. "We've had a revolving door behind the plate for two years now, but Chin will put a stop to that. We're glad to have him back in Charleston, WV and he'll be part of all our batteries for years to come.” Pinto and Hernández will look to lock down the back end of the rotation, and Farmer hopes to help a bullpen that struggled last year.
2009 Outlook: 101-61, second place
Analysis: It looks as though West Virginia will challenge New Jersey’s claim as the best hitting team in the Imperial League. There is no weak link in the offensive chain gang that the Coal Sox will send to plate each game, and they are going to score a lot of runs. As long as everyone stays healthy – especially Wood and Patterson, who have battled injuries in the past – the Coal Sox shouldn’t worry about scoring runs. However, their worries will come from keeping other teams from scoring. The Coal Sox have a strong core of starters with Crête, Reed and Cole but their four and five options are not so great. West Virginia’s bullpen struggled mightily last year, ending up with the second worst bullpen earned run average in the Imperial League. They have moved some pieces around but it remains to be seen if it will be any great improvement. Nonetheless, West Virginia plans on outscoring the opponent and when you can do that you don’t have to rely on the bullpen all that much. Babcock makes this prediction about the team he has put together: “The Dixie is tough. We finished one game out of the playoffs last year. That's not going to happen again. This is a team that won't just make the playoffs, but make it deep into October.”
Offensive MVP: Ernest Kaufman comes back to the PEBA with a vengeance
Pitching MVP: Mathys Crête keeps playing at high level