A Look Back: The 2007 Amateur Draft First Round, Part 1

by Sarah Rodriguez, Triple Crown Analytics
PART 1 of 6

April 7, 2010: NEW YORK, NY – Conventional wisdom recommends waiting at least five years before evaluating a draft.  This bit of advice is almost certainly too conservative.  Most collegiate picks have only spent about one year in the majors – if they’re any good – five years after being drafted, and only the most phenomenal of high school picks have seen a major league diamond anywhere but on ESPN.  At the same time, first-round picks tend to be far more polished and advanced than their generic counterparts.  The point of this analysis, in short, is to provide a thin veneer of justification for a fun look back at the PEBA‘s first-ever amateur draft in 2007.  Due to the traits described above, this retrospective will be limited to the first round of the draft.

In 2007, with the fledgling PEBA barely two months into its inaugural season, an air of uncertainty hung over the draft as the teams gathered to select the best of the college and high school graduating classes.  The league’s legitimacy was still frequently brought into question, and several lawsuits from rival businessmen had been threatened or filed over Congress’s plan to grant an anti-trust exemption to the PEBA, including one from the owners of the business remnants of MLB.  As Commissioner John Rodriguez took the stage to announce the first pick of the draft, insiders have revealed that, at the time, the league was relying only on “faith” in the draftees, the USCBA and PEBA member clubs to follow and abide by the results of the draft.  No formal working agreement had been signed by any parties.  Only the skillful negotiation and persuasion of Rodriguez kept the fragile draft framework in place.

These circumstances led to a unique draft the likes of which the PEBA will never again see.  With this background in mind, let’s take a look at the selections made on June 7, 2007.

Pick 1 – Kalamazoo Badgers – P António Betancourt – Age 21 – Illinois Chiefs (COL)
History:
08-01-2007    Was selected to the 2007 North American Farm Team Association All-Star Game.
05-18-2010    Injured (dead arm), out for 1-2 weeks.
06-30-2010    Injured (kidney stones), out for 4 days.
09-01-2010    Injured (elbow inflammation), out for 1-2 weeks.
01-28-2011    Injured (undisclosed injury), out for 2 weeks.
04-13-2011    Injured (back spasms), day-to-day for 5 days.
04-29-2011    Injured (undisclosed injury), out for 5 days.
07-29-2011    Injured (forearm stiffness), out for one week.
08-27-2011    Injured (sprained ankle), out for one week.


Past: Betancourt’s selection as the first-ever pick in a PEBA amateur draft represented a strong expression of Kalamazoo’s bold draft philosophy.  Eschewing the expected pick, starting pitcher Juan Flores of Rice, the Badgers instead listened to their scouts and opted for Betancourt.  In his senior year at Illinois, the right-handed starter posted a 4-4 record and a 2.94 ERA.  As the second-best starter on a 10th-place team, Betancourt’s value came from his favorable scouting reports.  He hit the ground running in his professional debut, earning a promotion to AA by the end of his first year.  Betancourt spent the next year and a half in AA, pitching splendidly to the tune of a career Great Northern League ERA of 2.83.  It was a promotion to AAA that began Betancourt’s problems.  He began to get shelled by opposing batters, giving up home runs left and right.  The coaches at Grand Rapids put him through an intensive regime to rebuild his delivery during the offseason, and the work paid off in 2010 when Betancourt, at age 24, saw the same success at AAA that he had at previous levels.  The next year, Betancourt earned a spot in the Badgers rotation out of spring training and finished an injury-filled debut season in the majors with a 5-11 record and 4.83 ERA.

Present: Kalamazoo’s offseason included the signing of two starting pitchers to compete for rotation spots in spring training.  Betancourt was bumped from the rotation and will begin the season in the Badgers’ bullpen.

Future: If he can build from his 2011 season, Betancourt has a solid career as a back-of-the-rotation starter ahead of him.  His walk numbers have always been a weakness and controlling them is a must to maintain his value.  He’ll walk a fine line between ML starter and fringe long reliever.

The Buzz: “Betancourt could be a valuable ML player for years to come, but the simple fact that I have to qualify that statement with ‘could’ says to me that he wasn’t a good pick first overall,” says an anonymous PEBA front-office official.  “He’s a control artist with above-average off-speed pitches, but just like when he was picked, he’s still relying on his potential instead of his results to stay in the bigs.  There was just too much talent in this draft for Betancourt to go this high.  I like the player but hate the pick.”

Pick 2 – Manchester Maulers – SS José Rivera – Age 21 – Penn State Pride (COL)
History:
10-22-2007    Wins the 2007 NAFTA A AWL Glove Wizard Award at 1B.
06-01-2008    Wins the NAFTA A AWL Batter of the Month Award.
06-02-2008    Wins the NAFTA A AWL Player of the Week Award.
07-31-2008    Was traded by the Manchester Maulers to the Aurora Borealis, along with C W. Berry, a 7th draft pick, in exchange for C F. Amati, SP R. Yamauchi, 1B T. Torres.
01-29-2009    Named the #47 prospect in the PEBA
04-06-2009    Named the #21 prospect in the PEBA
08-17-2009    Wins the GBB AAA RML Player of the Week Award.
09-22-2009    Won the 2009 Global Baseball Brotherhood Ambassador’s Cup with the Thornton FasTrax
03-29-2010    Named the #11 prospect in the PEBA
06-10-2010    Injured (sprained thumb), out for one week.
09-07-2010    Injured (strained oblique), out for 2 weeks.

Past: Rivera’s selection was a surprise at second overall.  Though a consensus premium talent, most pre-draft rankings pegged him as the second-best shortstop in the draft behind Kurt “Tempo” Thornton of Stanford, who would fall to Gloucester with the ninth pick.  What was not in dispute was Rivera’s talent – he and Thornton marked one of the best elite shortstop draft classes imaginable.  In his senior season, Rivera wielded deliciously fine control with the bat, striking out just four times all year and drawing 38 walks.  He split time between SS and 1B, even taking home a Glove Wizard award for his play at 1B, but every team saw him and his .909 OPS as a potential franchise player at short.  “Imagine the glove of Ozzie Smith and the bat of Tony Gwynn,” gushed one scout in a piece published by The Daily Collegian.  Not one, but two papers made the Gwynn comparison.  Noting his low strikeout total, the Laredo Midday Times said Rivera possessed “a Tony Gwynn-like eye”.  Though he – nor any human – could ever reach that potential, Rivera transitioned smoothly into pro ball and actually increased his triple-slash stats at every level as he rose through the minors, first with Manchester and later with Aurora after a deadline deal in 2008.

Present: Rivera has spent the past two seasons as an “everyday utility man” for the Borealis, seeing time at all four infield positions, and looks to have that same role in 2012.  For Rivera, it’s simply a matter of somehow earning more playing time on a legendarily talented team.

Future: Scouts still say the switch-hitter has the ability to win a batting title.  For now, he’ll be one of the most talented utility infielders in all of the PEBA.  If he can earn the playing time, he could take home an All-Leather award at any infield position.

The Buzz:
“Drafting Rivera was my decision,” states Manchester GM Morris Cooley, who was head scout for the organization at the time of the draft.  “God only knows who that nincompoop Dudas would have chosen.  Fortunately, he turned his very short attention span to updating his ‘365-day John Rodriguez, Jr. Calendar’ at the very moment that our pick was due to the league office.  So while he was salivating over Rodriguez’s unnatural pecs, I scored a plus middle infield prospect for the Maulers.  Dudas got his revenge the next summer when he traded Rivera to Aurora (of course) for Ryuichi Yamauchi, who he was convinced was the next Cy Young.  I told him then that he was instead the next Steve Blass.  We all know how that one turned out.”

Aurora, meanwhile, has been more than pleased with Rivera’s development.  “Rivera […] is a player we expect to hit over .300 soon, likely to be a doubles machine,” says Aurora GM Will Topham.  “His versatility in the infield is what we really like, and we expect him to rotate throughout the infield once McDonald returns from injury.  Needless to say, his arrival, along with Wilson Berry, was a huge trade for Aurora […] We feel the Rodriguez’s really stole some talent here.”

Flores - are his issues mental or mechanical?Pick 3 – Connecticut Nutmeggers – P Juan Flores – Age 21 – Rice Puddings (COL)
History:
03-02-2007    Injured (damaged meniscus (knee)), out for 2 weeks.
06-25-2007    Injured (strained back muscle), day-to-day for 2 weeks.
07-19-2009    Was traded by the Connecticut Nutmeggers to the West Virginia Coal Sox, along with SP T. Higgins, SP J. Oliver, SP J. Gaines, a 1st draft pick, a 2nd draft pick, in exchange for SP H. Cole, 2B T. Kirkland, RF B. Marín.
04-16-2011    Injured (mild hamstring strain), day-to-day for 2 days.
03-22-2012    Got claimed off waivers by New Orleans while with West Virginia.

Past: With the third pick, Connecticut grabbed SISA’s highest-rated prospect.  Flores’s fall to third ruined draft projections everywhere, as the diminutive lefty was expected to go first or second.  Unfortunately for Flores and Connecticut, draft day marked the peak of his value.  Flores finished the 2007 campaign at A, where he displayed the first signs of his undoing – more walks than strikeouts.  Repeating the level the next season, he corrected his control problems.  After a strong spring training in 2009, Connecticut stunned the baseball community by giving Flores a spot in its rotation.  The control problems reappeared and Flores once again began walking batters at an incredible pace, racking up huge pitch counts and ruining any chances of working deep into games.  When a deadline trade in July sent Flores to West Virginia, the organization’s coaches identified Flores’s problems as mental.  “It’s about confidence,” declared scout Takeichi Kondo, and Flores was sent to AAA in an attempt to calm the nerves of the young starter.  It didn’t work – after splitting 2010 between the majors and AAA, the Coal Sox sent Flores to the bullpen in an attempt to regain some value from the former can’t-miss prospect.  Flores’s control got worse, and no amount of smoke-and-mirrors could sustain his walk numbers.  His waiving at the end of spring training this season officially marked the former Pudding “washed-up.”

Present: New Orleans claimed Flores and sent him to AAA with the intent of lengthening him out into a starter again.  Two days after his 26th birthday, Flores went seven innings, earning a loss while walking three and striking out two.

Future: West Virginia may have chalked Flores’s struggles off as confidence issues, but in spring training his fastball struggled to reach 90 MPH and had no movement.  Hitters teed off against him as though he were pitching batting practice.  At this point, his status as a former first-round pick may be the only factor keeping him in a PEBA organization.

The Buzz: “The GM was acting quite strange on draft day in 2007,” reports an anonymous Nutmeggers official.  “I’m not quite sure it was nervousness, a quick trigger finger or his confusion with how the draft worked.  Juan Flores was most likely a mistake, but whether that is true or not is not known.  I don’t think anyone would dare ask the GM about it to his face.  One could (and should) question the Nutmeggers’ whole draft in 2007.  Look at Connecticut’s number two pick, Jeff Cline.  Traded?  Seriously?  I’m getting worked up just thinking about this.  Oh, by the way, do me a favor and don’t use my name when you publish this.  I still have a very important role in the Nutmeggers organization.  I’m not sure how long I’d last if I was found speaking to you like this.”  [Ed.  Note – Cline was selected in the inaugural draft by Canton, not in the amateur draft by Connecticut]

“Flores gives us a bit more starting depth at AAA,” says Cooper Scott, interim GM of New Orleans.  “He had uncharacteristic poor control in his stint in the PEBA with West Virginia last season.  A little more time at AAA will have this guy ready to contribute in no time, and that’s a Cooper Scott guarantee.  Take it to the bank.”

Pick 4 – New Jersey Hitmen – P Patrick “Cosmos” Hunter – Age 21 – Iowa Archers (COL)
History:
03-03-2007    Injured (tender shoulder), out for 2 weeks.
06-20-2007    Injured (finger blister), day-to-day for 1-2 weeks.
12-12-2007    Was traded by the New Jersey Hitmen to the Tempe Knights, along with LF B. Patton, MR V. Farris, SP B. Sharp, in exchange for SP C. O’connell, SP R. Hanlon.
04-06-2009    Named the #24 prospect in the PEBA
12-17-2009   Was traded by the Tempe Knights to the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo, along with 1B O. Pexego, CF J. Thomas, in exchange for 1B T. Yoshida, C C. Hull, SS A. Robinson, SP T. Sima, SP B. Sharp, CF J. Maldonado, a 1st draft pick, a 4th draft pick, a 9th draft pick, a 10th draft pick.
06-17-2010    Injured (elbow soreness), out for 4 weeks.
06-27-2010    Was traded by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo to the Aurora Borealis, along with C B. Keller, 2B R. Stewart, in exchange for 1B M. Bido, MR N. Ortíz, SP R. Dawson, MR K. Sellars.
07-31-2010    Was traded by the Aurora Borealis to the Manchester Maulers, along with SS J. Goulding, SP M. Adams, a 5th draft pick, in exchange for CF P. Buggins, a 1st draft pick, a 5th draft pick.
08-18-2010    Injured (finger blister), out for 2 weeks.
04-04-2011    Injured (shoulder inflammation), out for 3 weeks.
06-21-2011    Injured (forearm soreness), day-to-day for 6 days.
06-27-2011    Injured (strained oblique), out for 2 weeks.
07-01-2011    Wins the GBB AAA AML Pitcher of the Month Award.

Past: Drafting Hunter at fourth overall was a huge risk for New Jersey.  He had the talent without question, but Hunter possessed a second gift – his mind.  The righty graduated from Iowa with a physics degree and, considering the legitimacy issues surrounding the draft, was considered a risk to abandon his baseball career and attend graduate school.  Hunter himself was ambiguous in the weeks leading up to the draft, stressing that astronomy had always been his primary passion in life and baseball his secondary interest but refusing to declare his intentions.  On draft day, New Jersey took a huge risk and selected the San Francisco native.  Manager Tracy Evens infamously informed the press that signability wouldn’t be an issue.  “We’ll give him enough bonus money to buy the ****ing cosmos,” he declared, referencing Hunter’s nickname.

Sure enough, Hunter signed immediately for an undisclosed sum and hit the ground running in his pro debut.  “I can always take classes in the offseason,” he explained.  Hunter was as good as his word, and earned admission to Stanford’s graduate program that winter.  New Jersey had to send a representative to his lab at 2 AM to inform him of his trade earlier that day to Tempe during the December Winter Meetings.

Hunter made a meteoric rise through Tempe’s system next year, making the big league club for four starts at the end of the year.  Though he spent all of the subsequent 2009 campaign in the rotation, Hunter walked nearly one batter an inning and Tempe was widely critized for their perceived rushing of his development.  “He’s a physics prodigy and a baseball prodigy.  He’s just smart,” a testy Chris Van Hauter, Tempe’s GM, retorted in the Tempe Republic. Rumors began to circulate that Hunter was twenty pounds over his official playing weight.  Another trade, again during the Winter Meetings, ended the issues by sending Hunter to San Antonio.

Hunter’s results in AAA to open 2010 were less than stellar, but raised no concern among front office officials.  Hunter’s chaotic career path continued as he was dealt mid-season to Aurora.  This third trade forced Hunter to withdraw from Stanford, and “Cosmos” declared his intent to focus solely on baseball, which he still referred to as his “hobby”.  Hunter’s ability to return to academics was further hampered by a fourth trade at the deadline to Manchester, leading to jokes in the papers about his being forced to spend his cosmos money on moving vans.  Hunter actually used some of the money to buy a Porsche, and began to downplay his intellectual side in interviews with the press.

Stability returned in 2011 for his career, as he spent the full year in AAA and had a fine season, going 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA.  At 25, the once-young starter hadn’t appeared in a PEBA game since he was 23 until this last Tuesday.

Present: Hunter earned a spot in Manchester’s bullpen out of spring training, and figures to slide into the rotation as the season continues.  He still has every ounce of potential that made him worth drafting fourth overall and is just waiting for the opportunity.

Future: Hunter has made it clear that he is a baseball player for now, but Stanford is assuredly enticing to the starry-eyed starter.  Hunter could be an All-Star or a PhD.

The Buzz: “‘Cosmos?’ Ah, I remember that kid… this one definitely falls under the category of trades I did not like and had little say in,” says Hitmen manager Tracy Evens.  “The upper management doesn’t think long term too much around here, it seems.  He was mishandled by the Knights, in my opinion; he showed some fire and they rushed him up to the show in ’08 and ’09.  Kid could have really been something if brought up right… wish we still had the kid, though; could have really made a difference for us in the long run.”

“Dudas acquired Hunter from Aurora (of course) after highly unsuccessful stints in the PEBA and at AAA,” recalls Cooley.  “After I became GM, I knew that the only hope for this guy to develop was to force him to remain at AAA for all of 2011 and not even tempt him with a possible promotion to Manchester.  Hell, I wouldn’t even let him come to spring training.  My plan seems to have worked, as he turned in a gem of an age 25-season at AAA and is currently helping the Maulers out of the bullpen.  He’s likely to be tried in the rotation at some point as well.”

Stay tuned for Part 2, which will cover picks 5-8

Releated

West Virginia Nailed it!!!

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