A Closer Look at Aurora
A Closer Look at Aurora’s Sovereign League Dominance in 2009
Friday, July 31, 2009
As July comes closer to an end, it is obvious that Aurora is the class of the Desert Hills division. They currently have an 21-game lead over Bakersfield. Bakersfield, Kalamazoo and Palm Springs are fighting for two wild card spots, while Crystal Lake currently has a 7-game lead in the Great Lakes division.
Aurora certainly has the best record in the Sovereign League. Statistically, they are the class of the league. Offensively, they are no worse than 2nd in every major statistical category, including leading the SL in the only stat that matters – runs scored. In terms of pitching, Aurora ranks 1st in every major category with the exception of BABIP. Defensively, they have the highest fielding percentage in the league. They also rank 1st in terms of runs allowed. Amazingly, the average score of an Aurora game this year is 6-3 – a +3 margin of victory is just unheard of in baseball, but that’s where the Borealis stand as we get set for the pennant push in the PEBA.
The biggest question is obviously: can anyone in the SL take out Aurora come playoff time? Yes, they did win 112 games and a divisional title last year… only to see their divisional rival Bakersfield take them out in a 3-game sweep in the divisional series. So saying no one can beat Aurora in the playoffs is definitely a crazy statement. However, here are some questions and answers in an attempt to come to a realistic conclusion to that Sovereign League issue:
DOES AURORA STRUGGLE OFFENSIVELY AGAINST RIGHTIES OR LEFTIES MORE?
Aurora has won 75% of their games against left-handed starters and 80% against righties. So whoever gets the Borealis in the playoffs should really just pitch their best pitchers – handedness won’t matter.
HAS ANYONE HAD THEIR NUMBER THIS YEAR?
Kalamazoo is the only team to have close to a winning record against Aurora (5 wins for Aurora vs. 4 for Kalamazoo). Bakersfield is 4-8 against the Borealis, while Omaha holds a 3-6 record this year against them. So, the answer to that is… nope.
HOW DO YOU SHUT DOWN THEIR OFFENSE?
Looking at the Aurora lineup, it truly is a thing of beauty. Steve McDonald is the table setter – if he gets on, which he does quite often; you have a powerful middle of a batting order that can get him in. If you come out and shut them down in the first inning, you then have to deal with Kuemon Kiyomizu, an OBP and OPS freak. If you happen to get through two perfect innings, you then deal with the 7-hole hitter Naoaki Kichida – a .394 OBP, stolen base machine. So, basically, there is no let up with the offense – it’s no wonder they’ve scored and scored and scored this season.
IN A SHORT SERIES, IS THERE A PITCHING WEAKNESS?
Obviously, the first round is probably the most susceptible round for a team like Aurora – the longer the series, the more likely it is the best team should win. So, in a five-game series, what’s the chance of stealing one of the first two games and putting pressure on the Borealis?
The ace is John Roach – he has had a phenomenal two seasons in Aurora, winning 29 games and losing 6 in the regular season. He certainly wasn’t the reason his team lost last year – in his one start he went 7 solid innings, giving up 2 earned runs and fanning 11. Lefties hit him better than righties, and he’s actually a better road pitcher this year than at home. He’s only had one bad start all year – and that was against a Tempe team that Aurora doesn’t have to deal with come playoff time.
Who Aurora will go with in games 2 and 3 is a question mark – Jon Mitchell, George Thompson, Kijuro Kojima and Alberto Magana have all had phenomenal seasons. It will be a tough call for the Borealis manager – this will probably all depend on match-ups; however, its hard to believe that Aurora would be at a disadvantage once you get into a #2 pitcher vs. #2 matchup and a #3 pitcher vs. #3 matchup. So basically, the answer to this question is – you better take game one if you wanna win a short series.
CAN AURORA PUT THE 2008 PLAYOFFS BEHIND THEM AND MEET THE EXPECTATIONS THEY’VE CREATED FOR THEMSELVES?
Not having a pennant chase might hurt them in the long run. It will certainly be interesting to see the decisions that Aurora makes in terms of lineups in September. Obviously, the fans of Aurora would have an interesting reaction if they met up with Bakersfield again – a mixed reaction of, “Let’s get some revenge,” and, “Oh….. no”.
Would an Aurora playoff exit diminish the amazing season that they’ve had? Absolutely not. And it looks like Aurora will continue their great play for seasons to come. But being the best team brings with it expectations and burdens that are difficult to meet – not meeting them makes seasons feel like disappointments; meeting them makes all of the pain of prior defeats tend to fade away. Will Aurora win the SL? Probably – but don’t ask a fan of the Borealis for fear of the nastiest four-letter word in sports – jinx.