by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger

November 4, 2014: Aurora, Colorado – There are very few teams in baseball where a 90-win season would be looked upon as a disappointment. Hell, there was a day where Yuma would trade 10,000 cases of Colorado River water for a 90-win season. But, on the Front Range, a 90 win season equals watching the post-season from the comfy confines of their living rooms and to a franchise that sat as defending champs and all to used to October baseball, that option sits well with no one.

The 2020 Aurora Borealis will go down in team annuals as being one of the most perplexing in history. The contradiction of their stat lines and untimely injuries (is there ever a good time to have an injury?) destined the team to slight mediocrity, and to top it all off, it seems as if this team has lost its ‘fear factor’.

This is a team that won their season series with Yuma handily (12-6). They won their series with Reno (10-8), and they split with Bakersfield (9-9). Exactly how did this team fail to make the playoffs and defend their title?

At the Plate

Aurora finished the year with the 3^rd best team average in the Sovereign League – only non-playoff teams Canton and Tempe did better. The Borealis was led by CF Matt Ferrell who hit .325 – good enough for second best in the SL, behind Canton’s SL MVP Peyton Bishop. Ferrell, in his second full season as a starter, improved on his 2019 numbers (.296, 9 HR, 37 RBI) with 15 HR and 74 RBI, mostly out of the 2^nd spot in the order. Matt’s offensive prowess was tempered by his maddening habit of striking out – once in every five AB. None the less, Ferrell’s success these past two seasons will show up most in his pocketbook, as Aurora’s versatile outfielder is arbitration eligible and estimates have his 2021 salary in the $6M range.

The Borealis’ chances of making the post season were tempered by many things, but key injuries down the stretch – through August and September, can’t be overlooked. Ferrell suffered two separate injuries during this time period that certainly had an effect, missing the last two weeks of August and the first week of September with a strained rib muscle and then he missed the last ten days of the season with a sprained ankle. Aurora was a combined 14-17 during those stretches. And he wasn’t the only key contributor to be way layed during the most critical time of the season.

River Pope, in his first full season as a starter, finished at .305 (9^th in the SL), mostly splitting time between the leadoff spot and the 6-hole. His 37 doubles tied John Foster for the team lead and were 9^th best in the SL. Pope, unlike Ferrell, put the ball in play – striking out only 18 times on the year. Pope, like Ferrell, a 1^st round selection in 2016, is not amongst the fastest of runners, but his great instincts on the bases led to his stealing 10 bases in 11 attempts – perhaps he’ll get more opportunities next season to help Aurora improve on their dismal showing in that category (Aurora was 4^th in the SL in stolen bases, but more than a third of those were from Mike Hale). Pope missed the first three weeks of August with a neck injury, leaving Aurora without their dependable leadoff guy.

Between injuries, trades, and poor play, Aurora’s minor league outfield depth was tested – and the results were promising. Pedro Ferringo, who was drafted in 2019 and shot rapidly through the system, came in and hit .310 over 73 games – most at DH, particularly after the trade of Miguel Salinas to Duluth. During that short time period he had 20 doubles and 13 steals in 17 attempts, solidifying himself as the leading candidate to be the Opening Day DH in 2021. Paul Carlisle was called up at the end of July and started most of the games down the stretch, hitting .272, with 9 HR and 37 RBI in his 64 games.

The promise shown by Ferringo and Carlisle offset the disappointing lack of growth from Mike Hale whose .248 average and .335 SLG are significant regressions from his 2019 rookie campaign, but at 24, there’s room to grow – note how long it took ‘Gypsy’ John to develop.

Kane Talley, acquired long-ago from New Orleans in trade for long-time fan favorite Alex Poirier, followed up his key contributions to Aurora’s 2019 PEC victory, with a miserable .228 average for 2020. With the strong showing of Ferrell, Pope, Ferringo and Carlisle, coupled with the up-and-coming Wilson Mercado and Chandler Wright, Kane Talley’s days are likely numbered. He is arbitration eligible and it’s expected that Aurora will either non-tender him or release him outright.

Speaking of John Foster, the ‘Gypsy’ had his best season at Aurora with a .285 before missing the final last two crucial weeks with an injury to his MCL. His numbers were up all across the board – OBP, SLG, HR (career best 26), RBI (like-wise at 89). His play so inspired the club that shortly after the season’s end, they signed Foster to a 3-year deal worth $36M – with a team option for a 4^th year, avoiding arbitration.

Across the board, the offensive numbers were solid for Aurora as we haven’t even mentioned Mike Britt who, after flirting with the 30 HR/100 RBI levels for three seasons, had 32 HR and 107 RBI on the year (3^rd and 5^th best in the SL, respectively). Nick Giles may have seen a big decline in his average, but he still finished at .274 and, more importantly, played healthy all year. Even Scott Vinson had a bounce back season, hitting .275.

One can’t neglect to mention one last, big loss that Aurora suffered offensively and defensively with the season-ending injury suffered by José Rivera in early May. Rivera may not have been hitting well at the time, but his history suggests the season would have improved, and Aurora’s flexibility afield was hampered greatly.

So with the offensive success described, how did this team finish out of the playoffs? A team with an average that was better than the SL Champion Yuma Bulldozers. Better than Bakersfield. Better than Reno and better than Crystal Lake. Not because they didn’t score runs – at 808 RS, Aurora had the 4^th most in the SL. Was it not hitting with power? Perhaps, although Aurora’s .416 SLG was also 4^th best in the SL – though this is a deceptive stat as Aurora had the 2^nd most doubles, most triples, but the HR total of 152 was only 9^th in the SL. Sure, Britt set a personal best of 32, as was Foster’s 26. Rookie Josh Ligonier was third on the team with 18, but two major contributors to the offense: Ferrigno and Pope, had only one HR apiece.

And yet, a team that hits, and hits with ‘power’ – and may we add, doesn’t strike out (Aurora had the fewest strikeouts in the SL – and 132 of them came from one player, Ligonier, 96 from Hale, and 95 out of Ferrell, for a full third of the teams total), still comes up short. Why?

Offensively, one needs look no further than simply getting on base. Aurora’s 3^rd best AVE is grossly offset by their 11^th ranked OBP – due to the 2^nd lowest walk total in the SL (they finished with 80 more than Tempe!). Aurora may have outhit Bakersfield by 20 points, but the Bears sported a higher OBP by virtue of 140 more walks. Reno had 250 more walks than did Aurora. As a result, Reno, Bakersfield and Yuma scored .25 R/BB more throughout the course of the season. For an Aurora team that hit the ball, and routinely put it in play, that’s potentially a lot of runs – that definitely would have been significant in their 24, 1-run loses, particularly seeing that their 30, 1-run wins was best in the SL.

On the Mound
If the offense did their job – more or less, then the failures must be on the mound. Aurora began the year with hope, despite  Martín Francisco starting and spending the bulk of the year on the DL. A rotation of Michel Provost, Anastasio López and 2019 breakout stars Christian Murdoch and Junior Cook looked more than sufficient heading into the season. Coupled with the fine spring of rookie Arturo ‘Massacre’ Jiménez, and Aurora looked to be in fine shape.

And then Christian Murdoch, who struck out 221 and walked only 66 last season, started walking more, striking out less and giving up the long ball. After starting the year with two solid starts, he gave up 9 to the Codgers in 3 IP and his ERA never saw the low side of 6.27 the rest of the year as he was ultimately demoted to AAA Thornton – not once, but twice!

And with that, the rotation woes began.

And you can write the same words about Junior Cook – more walks (which was pretty tough to swallow when he averaged 5.9 per 9 IP in 2019!), more runs, and a demotion.

Even the trade deadline deal that brought Aurora ‘Zoom Zoom’ failed to spur them on as he gave up more hits, HRs and, ultimately, more runs then he did with Duluth, before he joined the injury parade himself, missing a pair of turns in the rotation for precautionary reasons as elbow and back issues troubled Aurora’s latest high-priced arm.

It was not quite all doom-and-gloom for the starting rotation. Provost wasn’t nearly as unhittable as he was in 2019 –his ERA was up 1.30 thanks in part to more HRs and 72 fewer Ks in 23 fewer IP. But then again, I think even Yuma and Bakersfield would take this line: 2.82, 186 K, 15 BB, 0.96 WHIP and .233 OAVG. But like Barker, Provost missed multiple starts down the stretch drive with his own back and ankle problems.

One could mostly say the same about Anastsio López, too. His numbers were mostly up – his ERA (3.94) was nearly a run greater than 2019, in part due to a career worst 33 HRs, but for the 5^th straight season (and 6^th of 7) he averaged more than 9K/IP and struck out 200 for the third straight year. He wasn’t rock solid, but he was more than acceptable, if for no other reason than by comparison to his rotation mates.

But for all the failures of the starters, the bullpen let the team down more than any spot. Aurora set a team mark with 26 blown saves – tied for 10^th All-Time (prior to 2020). Six of those BS came from closer Bryant Burris who, oddly enough, had more (7) last season). But Burris, who had 40 Saves, was matched by a number of his bullpen mates: Juan Martínez also had 6. ‘Stork’ Holbrook and Arnaud Thompson had 5 each and Gerardo Rivera, who came along with Barker to strengthen the ‘pen had two of his own in his short stay. Rivera also had more HR, more walks and more runs allowed than he did during the bulk of the year at Duluth.

Yet, the ‘pen was as perplexing as the rest of the team. Despite giving up the 3^rd most HRs in the SL, only Yuma, Bakersfield and Crystal Lake had a lower OAVG. Aurora’s bullpen had the 5^th best ERA. Only Palm Springs (544) and Tempe (542) had more bullpen Ks than Aurora (540), but like the starters, only Fargo, Omaha and K-Zoo had more than Aurora’s 262 BB out of the ‘pen. As a matter of fact, the entire bullpen averaged 4.5 BB/9 IP – apiece!

The end result? Pick one singular word to describe why Aurora sat home for the playoffs, and that word would be…

Walks.

Too few at the plate has likely cost the team runs and too many on the mound certainly have cost the team runs. For a team that played one-third of their games as 1-run affairs, every run was meaningful. With five 1-run losses to the Bears and three to Reno, a full one-third of Aurora’s 1-run loses were to the two teams directly ahead of them in the playoff hunt (of note, Aurora had four 1-run wins v. Bakersfield). Free bases – both ways, certainly could have made a difference in a tight wild card race!

The Borealis will need to find a way to change the walk trend, and soon, if they expect to hang with the pitching strong ‘Dozers and Bears. Whether it’s hoping guys will mature and improve (Hello Cook and Jiménez), guys return to their previous standard (Mr. Murdoch, Control on line 4), or simply bringing in new blood – there’s certainly room for improvement in the ‘pen, something will need to be done – fast. The fan’s message to Aurora brass – Run, don’t walk!