by Francis Ferry, NLN beat writer

September 22, 2019: Aurora, Colorado – Aurora GM Will Topham has had a busy couple of months and nary a body has been added to the organization. Instead, the Borealis have settled the vast majority of the 2020 roster decisions before the 2019 season has come to an end. Some deals allow Aurora to avoid arbitration hearings this fall – some allow Aurora to avoid arbitration all together and others keep potential free agents with the club for at least another year. The over-riding theme thus far – keep the teams strength together, and that’s the pitching staff.

Take this weekend, for example. Yesterday Scott Vinson signed a 1-year deal for $9.5M that keeps the club from arbitration with their starting catcher. Playing with an $8M deal signed at the end of the 2018 season, estimates on Vinson’s arbitration number ranged from $9-$10.5M. Vinson’s offensive numbers are depressed in his first full season as the starting catcher, after filling the DH role his first two years as a starter for Aurora. Although his up and down season has him only hitting .240, his homer total (18) is higher than last year – thanks to a power surge the past two months. For Aurora, the question as to offering Vinson an extension v. the risk of arbitration was an easy one – every million matters with the deep roster they have. It certainly doesn’t hurt Vinson that finding quality defensive backstops is not easy. For Scott, 2020 may be a make-or-break season. Vinson may qualify for free-agency and with Miguel Gálvez lined-up to be on the opening day roster next spring (presuming he recovers from his horrid ankle injury), this could be Vinson’s last contract with Aurora.

‘Porker’ Thompson moved through the farm system quickly after signing with the Borealis in the spring of 2014. By 2016 he was a mainstay in the bullpen and in 3+ seasons posted a sub-3.00 ERA. The right-handed Canadian was rewarded in arbitration with a $2.77M contract for 2019 – a year he’ll no doubt look to forget. Despite the second lowest BABIP of his career, walks are up, HR are up and strikeouts are down. Worst of all, his ERA is up 2.5 runs over last year – up to 4.73. That said, pitching coach Tom Williams and scout Joe Horn feel that it’s just been one of those fluky seasons – and that the talent is still there. With experts suggesting that Arnaud was in-line for a $1M pay raise, Aurora avoids a hearing and saves, potentially $500K+ with a $3.25M deal for 2020. What ‘Porker’s future will be in Aurora is to be determined. He’ll turn 30 before years end, and with some of the other contracts Aurora signed to their bullpen, it’s questionable if they can afford to go much higher.

Speaking of those contracts, Happy Birthday ‘Sleepy’ Kuhn. Nolan turns 28 today and was set for his first arbitration hearing with an expected $1+M return. The 24^th overall pick in 2014 will avoid arbitration for at least two, and perhaps a third year with a deal that will pay him an average $900K if a team option in the third year is picked up. Kuhn was drafted with high expectations. A fastball that tops 100 MPH, with insane movement on all his pitches, but he never realized the control that type of potential requires. With a K/BB of less than 2.00, walks kill him. The bad news is, at 28, he’s not likely to have a miracle discovery of control. The deal works well for Aurora – they don’t have to give up on ‘Sleepy’ quite yet, he’s done an admirable job – especially against lefties, but they are not deeply invested in him either. Should three straight 1.55 WHIPs and two straight 3.80+ ERAs slide upward, he’s a painless release.

Those three deals, struck this weekend, were just the latest in the lengthy process of focusing Aurora’s financial picture for 2020 and beyond. Last month Aurora found them selves in the midst of the contract run. Looking to make sure the key holes were filled, Topham turned his attention to a player experiencing a renaissance, on his way to a (potential) record breaking year. In 2013, it was apparent that Juan Suarez was looking at the back-end of his career and that the hard-throwing Stanford grad, Bryant Burris, was the closer of the future. With that in mind, after the 2013 season Topham signed Burris to a 4-year, $12.8M deal that eliminated arbitration and gave Aurora a bargain in the ‘pen. Before the contract could expire, Burris inked a 2-year extension for $5.5M a year prior to spring training in 2017. Despite having 100 saves in his pocket, he had lost the closers job due to ineffectiveness by mid-season. Now, fast-forward two years and Burris is on the verge of breaking the single-season save record. Topham no doubt did himself a favor by jumping on the negotiations when he did (August 11), as he inked Burris to a two-year, with a third team option, $19.2M deal that gives them arguably the best closer in the game at the best price in the game.

Like ‘Sleepy’ Kuhn three years later, ‘Stork’ Holbrook was the 24^th overall selection in 2011 – the infamous pick for Aurora, who were all set to draft ‘Moondog’, only to see Florida draft him 23^rd. Holbrook took little time moving through Aurora’s system and pitched so well that he began the 2018 season as the closer, picking up 20 saves before Burris regained the job. After going through arbitration hearings the past two seasons, and earning awards of $2.9M and $3.3M, Aurora looked to keep Holbrook from the arby table and succeeded by inking him to a 2-year, with a third year team option, for an annual salary of $5.15M. At 30, we may very well see ‘Stork’ back in the closers role by the end of the contract.

Mike Britt came from seemingly nowhere – well, Oak Ridge, TN to be precise, and from the beginning the expectations were sky high. Now in his third full season as a starter – splitting time between 1B and 3B, Britt is in his third straight 20 HR/80 RBI season and the arbiter’s table was in his immediate future – and a huge payday to follow. Aurora won’t have to worry about that for a few years as Britt agreed on a two-year, with a team option on a third, $27M deal. Many scouts view Britt as a .300 hitter – and his easy stroke suggests that he should be. There are some whispers that Britt doesn’t work hard enough to post a .300 average, but with the power and RBIs he’s generated thus far, should he reach that potential, his next contract may approach this contracts total – per year.

Mike Hale is only 2 years removed from the campus of Villanova, and he’s already signed his first contract extension. A tremendous defensive outfielder with blazing speed and a propensity for extra-base hits: 33-2B and 5-3B already in his first full season. Destined to be the lead-off guy for years to come, the Borealis had their hands tied by archaic contract rules in the league office. Expected to spend the year at Thornton, with maybe a mid-season call-up, Aurora was forced to break spring camp with him in tow. His .271 average suggests he hasn’t necessarily been lost at the plate. Being forced to keep him for the year placed Aurora in the position of possibly seeing Hale become a Super Two after 2020 and taking in a big deal through arbitration. Topham jumps the gun by signing Hale to a three-year deal, with a fourth year option, averaging $1.65M for the three-years.

Those seven deals solidify a significant portion of the roster for 2020, and beyond, but they also leave some interesting, yet likely easy, decisions leading to the 2020 season:

Arbitration

Mike Burton is arbitration eligible for the last time and with a salary of $8.1M this year, it’s fair to expect he’ll be looking at a deal of approximately $9.5M. That’s looking like a lot for a 30-something 4^th or 5^th outfielder and that’s a near $10M that can certainly be used more effectively. MR Tony Gordon was once considered a top starting prospect, then a top bullpen arm. Gordon has slipped dramatically over the past three seasons, and with a $4.2M current deal and a potential arbitration number closer to $5+M, it’s not expected that he’ll return – even though relief pitching is the weakest point on Aurora’s farm. The same is likely true for Orlando López. ‘El Bebé’ was once thought to be the best pure hitter on the team when he nearly won a batting title in 2016. Fast-forward four years and his $1.2M dollar salary and the likely $1.5M he’d get in arbitration isn’t so much the problem – it’s simply that he’s been passed up by younger, more talented bodies. I would be shocked if any of these three returned for the 2020 season.

C Sergio López will be looking for a modest pay increase through arbitration, which Aurora will likely be willing to take on – even if he ends up back in AAA as an insurance policy for Vinson and Gálvez. Set-up man Jonathan Dykes is also arbitration eligible and it’s believed he’s in negotiations with management over a long-term deal – possibly taking him through his arbitration years. It was Dykes who took over the closers job in 2017, earning 27 saves over the second half of the season. In three full seasons with the Borealis, Dykes has been a model of consistency with a 2.41 ERA over 138 IP. The big name on the list of upcoming arbitration cases is John Foster. ‘Gypsy’ is earning $5.5M this year (an arbitration award from 2018) and it’s expected he’ll take in somewhere in the vicinity of $8+M – and his vocal agent has hinted any extension will cost Aurora considerably more. This may force the Borealis to go to arbitration with their second-bagger. In many respects, Fosters expectations on the field have run hand-in-hand with Britt’s. This will likely be Aurora’s biggest question mark going into the off-season and into the spring. Will Foster finally break out of a career long funk, or will he finally match his potential. Despite being elected to the SL All-Star team this year, it’s really beginning to smell like the answer to that is ‘no and no’.

Free Agents

I hate to tell you this, Aurora fans, get used to it. Cory Pierce will be wearing something different than Aurora Blue come spring training. After signing a $20M, two years deal, Pierce is looking for a pay raise – and don’t count on his giving Aurora a ‘home town discount’ – he’s not that loyal a guy. Forget the five guys not named Foster above – given a modest pay raise to Foster, Aurora is already looking at $116M payroll for 2020, with a potential huge raise for Provost in 2021. Couple that with young players like Giles and Ferrell facing arbitration in the coming seasons, and Aurora needs to take a hard look at where they need to conserve their dollars – and the outfield, for now, looks like the spot, with cheap options to fill Burton and Pierce’s spot in the minors. Lastly, reliever Pat MacComie, fresh from a rehab assignment, and no roster spot available, has been released, getting a head start on his own free agency that was going to happen anyway.

Options

Provost ($16.5M), ‘Sawmill’ ($9.6M) and Anastasio López ($8.8M) all had options on their contracts that vested with 25 GS this season, and as such, all three will be on the mound come opening day. Francisco has a team option for 2021, so barring something unforeseen, he’s under contract for an additional year. Then it gets complicated. It’s believed López had agreed to a 3-year extension on top of the vesting option, but word is his agent has put stop to that, and now it’s looking like López may end up in the same boat as ‘Quagmire’ – Aurora unable to negotiate a reasonable deal because of league salary rules. Provost, who signed a 5-year, $72.5M free agent contract in 2016 is, oddly enough, arbitration eligible after the 2020 season. There’s a contract negotiation that should be very interesting to watch.

Miguel Salinas signed a 2-year, $26M deal prior to opening day, and the second year of that deal was a team option. There are plenty of pros and cons regarding what Aurora should do with that option, but one thing is clear – Salinas has been a beast at the plate since mid-season and should he be the driving force to a Rodriguez Cup (he does have two rings for his role on the Bears back-to-back title teams), releasing him will be a difficult thing to do.

The Future

Taking this all in, one can see that, whether or not this edition of the Borealis wins the title, next years edition will look an awful lot like this years – and potentially cheaper, which will pay off come 2021. The rotation of Provost, Francisco, López, Murdoch and Cook is set – with only López a question mark for 2021. Burris will remain the closer for the immediate future and the rest of the ‘pen is set to return, regardless of what happens with Dykes contract.

Of the 13 position players, Vinson returns. The infield of Rivera, Foster, Giles and Britt return with Richie Norman expected back as well. A starting outfield will look like Hale, Ferrell, Pope and/or Talley. That leaves just three spots that are open. One, catcher, will be Gálvez or López. A second spot is likely to be an outfielder, with Paul Carlisle the front-runner for now. That leaves the third spot for, presumably, Salinas.

The Borealis have an intriguing mixture of vets and youngsters, and with Topham’s efforts to get a head start on contract extensions, he’s in line to have this seemingly strong core together for many years. As Olaf Halvorsen, the Duluth baseball blogologist asked, in so many words: ‘Is the Evil Empire back?’