The Tadpole Report

Written by Green Leader, Special to The San Juan Weekly Pre-eminent

This is an in-depth look at the San Juan Coqui organization’s top 20 prospects. This series is a joint effort of The San Juan Weekly Pre-Eminent, Puerto Rico’s weekly sports paper, and It Ain’t Easy Bein’ Green, the most popular fan blog of your San Juan Coqui. The rankings are the result of votes taken by an anonymous panel with members of the local and national press, scouts inside and outside of the organization, and performance analysts inside and outside the organization. The narrative description of each prospect and the projections and risks (for the top ten only) were provided by It Ain’t Easy Bein’ Green staff. A few ground rules about the Top 20:

– Generally speaking, close proximity to PEBA and high ceilings are better than the opposite, but don’t try to divine whether close proximity to PEBA is more highly valued than high ceiling or vice versa – It’s subjective! It’s fun! It’s not for gambling purposes!

– International complex players are not eligible for the Top 20 – International complex players do not generate statistics, and without stats for the TR’s performance analysts to sift through, the TR’s proprietary (Editor’s note: totally arbitrary and made up) prospect ranking system breaks down.

#1 LF/CF Juan Borges – The Coqui’s 2037 1st round draft pick has arrived. Less than one year after being the starting CF for the iCOL’s Cienfuegos Peleteros, Borges led the Coqui organization with 39 home runs in the 2038 season, 12 of those being hit as a September call-up in San Juan. Borges’s light tower power is expected to man the clean-up spot in the Coqui 2039 Opening Day lineup, with the only question being whether he plays centerfield or left field 

ETA – He’s here!

Upside – Middle of the lineup basher who could win Gold Gloves in left field or be merely an adequate defensive centerfielder. 

Risks to projection – Borges only becomes a four-tool player as his “hit” tool never develops more than its current adequacy. . . he never learns to hit for power against LHP. . . his defensive skills stall so that he is limited to a corner outfield spot. . .

#2 SP Alberto Salazar – The newly-minted two-time organizational pitcher of the year, Salazar is the obvious top pitching prospect in the Coqui organization. While pitching in A, AA, and AAA in 2038, Salazar recorded a 2.73 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 23 starts, and that was after a slow April debut, where he recorded a 6.43 ERA over his first two starts. The 22 year old is not a flamethrower, but has good movement on all three pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) and at this point in his career has better command in the zone than he has control to keep the ball in the zone.

ETA – 2039, with spring training performance dictating whether he is on the Opening Day roster

Upside – A top of the rotation starter who is a ruthlessly efficient out-getter without any overwhelming strength.

Risks to projection – Salazar’s development freight train slows in AAA. . . lefties solve him. . . Salazar’s long-expected control problems given his pitch movement suddenly appear in the high minors or PEBA.

#3 CL Soseki Yokoyama – The future is now for the Coqui’s 2038 1st round draft pick. It took all of seven weeks for the #6 player chosen to make his PEBA debut after blowing through AA and AAA on his way to San Juan. The prototypical college closer is a sinker-slider specialist whose ability to keep the ball at the bottom of the strike zone makes hitters beat the ball into the ground. With Coqui All-Star Closer Ryan Tate refusing to consider a contract extension, Yokoyama appears to be the closer-in-waiting.

ETA – He’s here!

Upside – Perennial All-Star Closer

Risks to projection – TINSTAAPP. . . Yokoyama’s PEBA debut was fine, but nowhere near dominant (13+ IP, 7 BB, 19 K, 4.61 ERA, .405 BABIP. . . Like Salazar, Yokoyama’s ability to avoid giving out free passes with his movement-forward repertoire is the biggest potential Achilles heel. . . Yokoyama fancies himself as a hitter (311/340/489 with 2 HR as a senior in college) and loves to fool around in the batting cage.

#4 LF Jed Berridge – It’s hard to imagine a better professional debut for a high school draftee than Jed Berridge’s 2038; the 2nd round draft pick hit 301/399/580 with 26 home runs in the Rookie League for Port Royal. Still just 18, a promotion to short season-A ball or even full season A would seem to be in the cards. Berridge is a pure hitter, with an ability to hit for power and average, as well as draw a walk. He’s not fleet of foot, and that hurts his outfield defense. He will likely only ever be a corner outfielder, and a merely adequate one with some luck. 

ETA – 2042ish

Upside – Hit-first DH or corner outfielder who could challenge for batting and home run titles.

Risks to projection – He’s just 18 and it’s a long way from Port Royal to San Juan. . . Berridge has proven he can hit rookie ball pitchers – despite his young age, he is a very well-developed hitter – but the curve balls get sharper in the high minors. . . the glove never develops into even adequacy (although the bat projects to be good enough to play even if merely a DH)

#5 2B Zinedine Cozens – The 23 year old known as the South African God of Walks may not have a nickname that rolls off of the tongue, but his unique skillset could get him to San Juan by early 2039. The organizational leader in walks drawn (76 in 542 plate appearances), Cozens is a plus fielder at 2B and 3B, an adequate defensive shortstop, and has even been known to stand around in right field. Cozens’ 294/411/472 start to the 2038 campaign in AA earned him a promotion to AAA, where he hit a respectable 262/377/356. Scouts believe there is some power in Cozens’s game to come  

ETA -2039

Upside – A starting 2B or 3B, or supersub who can put up a 375+ OBP with some pop.

Risks to projection – Walk tools like Cozens’ only translate to PEBA if the hitter develops enough bat-to-ball and power skills to keep pitchers from challenging him. . . the scouts like Cozens’ defensive skills better than the metrics 

#6 RF Jose Camacho – The third year pro is ready to move up to full season A ball after breaking out in his third season in Port Royal. Still just 20, Camacho hit 290/387/625 with 30 home runs, trailing only #1 prospect Juan Borges in that last category. Many have called Camacho a right-handed Jed Berridge. Like Berridge, Camacho has an advanced hit tool for the rookie league, but at two years older, his need to prove himself at A ball in 2039 will be more urgent than Berridge’s. Camacho is more athletic, and is a plus defensive right fielder. Drafted as a 3B, Camacho could still play there in a pinch, but the corner outfield is his home now. 

ETA – 2041

Upside – Starting corner outfielder with enough ability to hit for average and power to make an All-Star team or three during his career.

Risks to projection – Will Camacho develop quickly enough to avoid a premature Rule 5 plucking. . . At 21 years old next season in A-ball, Camacho’s career is on a knife’s edge – that’s not old for the level, but it’s not young either

#7 SP Leonard Hurley – Is consistency Leonard Hurley’s middle name? If not, it should be. Although “Tortoise”, the sly protagonist from the old tale “The Tortoise and the Hare” would be another moniker, and an appropriately respectful one, too. Hurley, a former 13th round draft pick, has just completed his sixth professional season, this one at AA Santurce, and his third as a starting pitcher. This season, he did what he always does: make starts, get outs, and give up a few home runs (161+ IP, 4.01 ERA, 11-10 W/L record, 1.2 HR per 9IP). Hurley will likely never be a star, but a pitcher whose main weakness is giving up too many flyballs can prosper in the vast expanses of PRTC Stadium. 

ETA – 2040 or 2041

Upside – Reliable, consistent, back of the rotation starter

Risks to projection – His HR tendencies become more pronounced at the higher minors or PEBA level. . . development of his four pitch repertoire stalls

#8 SP Martin Krook – Martin Krook’s effectiveness as a starting pitcher is a riddle wrapped up in an enigma inside a mystery. He looks the part of a PEBA starting pitcher – he’s a tall, lanky, whip-like 6’4”, 190 pounds – but then he throws. . . sidearm. Not too fast. Not much movement. No overly impressive pitches (although he has a lot of them). But he Just. Gets. Outs. Indeed, Krook’s 2038 was his most impressive yet, as he went 14-11 over 28 AAA starts, with a 3.79 ERA. For a 22 year old, that’s an impressive season in his first turn through AAA.

ETA – 2039 or 2040

Upside – Back of the rotation starter

Risks to projection – Krook’s success walks a fine line – any uptick in BABIP or HR rate or downtick in strikeout rate could spell the end to his hopes of being a major league starter. . . the smoke fades and the mirrors break

#9 LF Tim Baker – This ranking is probably too high for a guy who has never hit better than .246 as a professional. But legitimate two-way players are fun, yo? Baker’s ceiling is higher as a hitter than as a pitcher. Indeed, while he has struggled to hit for average, he draws walks and hits for power despite being young for his league in both seasons since the Coqui drafted him in the 3rd round out of Illinois: 241/356/441 as a 21 year old in SS-A Homer, and 246/345/520 with 21 HR as a 22 year old in AA Santurce. Double-A hitters caught up to Baker’s limited repertoire on the mound (8-8, 4.53 ERA in 23 starts) after an unexpectedly dominant first professional season on the mound in SS-A (5-3, 2.13 ERA in 15 starts).

 ETA – 2041.

Upside – Low-average but still productive corner outfielder who can extend a roster by making a spot start or pitching meaningful relief innings.

Risks to projection – The average doesn’t retain its adequacy as Baker progresses through AAA and into PEBA. . . the pedestrian stuff from the mound doesn’t translate against more experienced hitters.

#10 SP Julio Barrera – Scouts love one thing about Barrera – a knuckle curve that may be the best in organized baseball. Barrera rode that pitch and plus fastballs and forkballs to an impressive 12-9, 3.58 ERA in his second attempt at AA at the tender age of 22. Barrera’s funky repertoire – seriously, who throws a forkball and a knuckle curve – and traditional over the top delivery give him a different look 

ETA – 2041 or 2042

Upside – Number two starter.

Risks to projection – Flyball tendencies coupled with poor command/control sink Barrera’s promise. . . the organization’s pitching coaches can’t convince him to drop his fourth and fifth pitches that are subpar.

#11 SP Mick Hauer – Another pitcher on whom scouts are iffy, Hauer impressed in full season A and AA last year. He has three plus pitches that all tunnel together, but with predictable movement and iffy control. That was still good enough for two of every three starts to be quality starts. A full season at AA will go a long way toward determining if Hauer has a PEBA career.

#12 2B Robert Baudin – Second year pro Baudin is ahead of schedule, proving after 19 games that he had nothing to prove at short season Homer (321/382/543) and held his own as a precocious 19 year old at full season A-ball (280/328/512). Baudin’s glove and bat project to fix the Coqui’s long-standing second base problem in the next two to three years.

#13 C Michael Trelawny – In a universe where only about half of the PEBA teams have a catcher that is serviceable offensively, the bar for prospect catchers is pretty low. A breakout 320/368/467 season in full season A-ball by a 23 year old, however, clears that bar easily. Trelawny has good bat-to-ball skills, gap power, and absolutely no plate discipline. He is already a good receiver behind the plate with a merely adequate arm.

#14 RF Stephen May – A 2037 7th round pick, May’s spot on this list is almost purely projection, as but for a 19 game stint in Homer at the start of the 2038 season, May’s performance has been underwhelming. Much like Trelawny, good contact skills, gap-to-gap plate coverage, and solid defensive skills are May’s calling card.  

#15 C Pedro Flores – No, not that one. The Coqui’s 2038 2nd round draft pick is all projection, and as an 18 year old, a long way away from PEBA. Scouts love Flores’ bat, believing that he has All-Star potential at the plate, but that he is unlikely to stick there defensively.

#16 3B Ghidey Rashidi – Rashidi’s second pro season was a great improvement on his first pro season, and as a 21 year old, that’s ok. At this stage of his career, improving from OPS+’s of 72 and 57 in rookie ball and short season A, respectively to 131 and 124 is right on schedule. Rashidi is a corner infielder with no obvious plus skills, but no obvious weaknesses.

#17 RF Greg Hyde – At just 19 years old, Hyde’s two seasons in rookie ball have been impressive: 292/383/446 with 11 homers and 278/350/464 with 16 homers are a good start to his career. Whether Hyde begins 2039 in SS-A or full season A, he will still be one of the youngest players in the league.

#18 LF Michael Bailey – Unlike the last few prospects named, Bailey is a grip-it-and-rip-it prospect: low contact (96 Ks in 301 plate appearances in AAA in 2038) and plus power (14 homers after hitting 42 between two levels the season before).At just 23, he has been rushed and will likely repeat AAA in 2039. 

#19 C Joseph Cooper – Another good bat, no field catcher, the 18 year old Cooper is a “make-up” pick – a hard worker who is a good clubhouse guy – given that personality, he will be given plenty of time to learn how to catch.

#20 SP Leo Brisbourne – A third round draft pick just last season, the precocious Brisbourne more than held his own in rookie ball as an 18 year old (12 starts, 2.45 ERA). Brisbourne projects to have three plus pitches, good movement, and enough control and command.

Honorable Mention (International Complex Prospects)

SS Luis de la Cruz – The 16 year old Cuban shortstop gets an ’80’ score from scouts for his ability to make hard contact, but a ’20’ score with his glove. If the bat develops as scouts think it could, Coqui brass will find a spot in the lineup for de la Cruz.

LF Abdel Tarik – The 18 year old South African is a plus power bat who has raw athletic ability to cover ground in the outfield.

3B Norberto Garcia – Like de la Cruz, Garcia, a 17 year old Dominican, is a bat looking for a position. Unllike de la Cruz, Garcia has power in his game.