The Accidental Contender – Analyzing What Went Right in RGV
The Accidental Contender – Analyzing What Went Right in RGV
When the season started, PEBA pundits almost uniformly agreed that the Rio Grande Valley Ocelots were likely headed for a fourth place finish in the Dixie division. And who could blame them. After all, the Ocelots, just two seasons ago, in the final LRS season as the Kawaguchi Transmitters, lost 123 games. The team showed enough improvement last season to win 72 games while losing 90. The team had not had a winning season since 2010.
So how did the Ocelots suddenly become the team with the second best record in the Imperial League as the PEBA season heads into the final 6 weeks?
As last years 90 loss season came to a close, reliever Jesus Garcia on November 7 exercised his 14 million dollar player option, essentially crippling the Ocelots financially for the 2022 season. As a result, 3b David Uribes and his 7.87 million dollar contract were dealt to the Duluth Warriors, with the Ocelots receiving outfield prospect Dean Walden in return. While the deal of Uribes helped ease the financial situation, on the whole it was still rather dire for the Ocelots. Not to mention, a batter who typically put up a .400 obp year in and year out was no longer going to be in their lineup. While Walden is a fine prospect, he was highly unlikely to provide any help to the big club for at least two more years.
When free agency began, the Ocelots had limited resources, and a lot of needs. So value was the name of the game. The Ocelots trolled the bargain basement like Rosie O’Donnell trolls a buffet.
On December 8th, left handed reliever Martin Cantin signed a 2 yr deal valued at about 1.3 million a season. Cantin had been a consistently productive reliever over the course of his career, he presently has a career ERA of 2.96 and 146 PEBA saves on his resume. While Cantin has groaned off and on about not being the closer, he has been an effective left handed setup man for the Ocelots, though his ERA at 3.44 and HR rate of 1.5 per 9 innings are both above his career averages.
On December 13th, the Ocelots signed 2b Leslie McDonald for 2 yrs at 1.1 million a season. McDonald was coming off back to back tough seasons, and had been released by the Palm Springs Codgers back in July of 2021. McDonald had been productive for Ocelots GM Matt Higgins in 2018 and 2019 when they were both with the Calzones, and working with a limited budget, McDonald certainly fit a team need in the infield as well as in the clubhouse. He also provided some right handed power, an area where the Ocelots were lacking. While McDonald’s best days are certainly behind him, he has been an effective player this season. He can be a bit streaky, and he has possibly lost a step in the field, but he has batted .238 with 17 HR and 47 RBI and might possibly top his career high in HR (previous high 20). He often bats lower in the order than he has in the past, and he has to have his regular days of rest, but for the price he has been a decent value.
On December 16th, the Ocelots added right handed reliever Marcos Gonzalez to the bullpen, signing him to a 3 year deal worth 1.3 million in 2022, 2.3 mil in 2023, and 3.3 million in 2024. Gonzalez was coming off a year in which he saved 12 games with a 2.61 ERA in Okinawa, and his previous best seasons, 2016 and 2017, were also years in which he had been used almost exclusively as a reliever. In between, he had been used as a starter for several seasons and he never fared as well as a starter. The Ocelots brought him with one thing in mind, for him to be the closer. While Gonzalez recently lost his closer job to Jorge Nunez, he has been a very solid pitcher for the Ocelots this season, posting a 7-6 mark with 19 saves and a 3.47 ERA.
On December 21st, the Ocelots off loaded a bit more salary, sending pitcher Xavier Gomes and his 4.6 million dollar contract to Yuma, getting catcher Curtis Ash and CF Ben Ray, both defensive specialists, in return. Ash would be the Ocelots starter behind the plate for much of the season, before he was eventually supplanted by the left handed bat of Darwin Boyer. Ash was eventually lost to Arlington on waivers, and Ray never got much of a chance to prove himself. But the Ocelots had managed to free up a little more financial wiggle room in order to continue their off season bargain hunt.
Two days later, on December 23rd, the Ocelots would sign another bargain reliever, this time Jon Miller, to a 3 year deal worth 1.15 million per season. Miller had once led the IL in saves with 47 back in 2016, and had been a rather consistent pitcher for most of his career. He had slipped in a bit in 2020 and 2021, and the Thoroughbreds let him walk after the season. Miller had always been really good at keeping the ball in the park, and despite coming off two subpar seasons he still owned a sub 4 career era. The Ocelots brought him in to work as the right handed setup man, and he has been effective, posting a 3.02 ERA in 40 appearances.
On Christmas Eve, the Ocelots traded C Hirotsugu Suzuki to Havana for outfield prospect Shigenobu Matsunaga. This trade did little for the Ocelots immediately, other than clear the way for the team to go with more defensive minded catchers. Matsunaga is at least two years away from helping at the PEBA level.
On January 19th, the Ocelots signed starting pitchers Mark McFarland and Justin Barton to contracts. McFarland signed for one year at 875k, while Barton signed for two years at 1.26 million per season. McFarland struggled through 9 starts, posting a 2-3 record with a 6.86 ERA before being exiled to Texarkana. While McFarland had the first shot at becoming a member of the rotation, Barton spent the early part of the season shuffling back and forth to Texarkana. Barton made just one start for the Ocelots in April, then 3 more in May. It wasn’t until June that he became a regular in the rotation, but he is now 11-3 3.39 on the season and one of the biggest surprises in all of PEBA in 2022. He has struggled a bit in his last two starts, but he leads the Ocelots in wins and is just one win away from matching his career high.
On January 25th, the Ocelots signed 1b Akira Goto and 2b Lawrence Jones to one years deals, worth 1.0 and 1.15 million respectively. Goto struggled early on, and the emergence of Esteban Miranda (more about that later) led to Goto eventually being released. Goto hit .207 with 2 HR and 6 RBI in 15 games for RGV, and it could be argued that Goto never really received a fair shot. But roster moves are rarely made on the basis of fairness. Jones also struggled, batting .119 in 21 games, before a demotion to AAA Texarkana and then an eventual release in late June.
On February 5th, the Ocelots signed minor league free agent 3b Bob Vollmer to a minor league contract with a 10k bonus. While this signing isn’t pertinent to the success the Ocelots are presently having, it could have an impact on future seasons. At the time, the winter leagues had just released their free agents, and the focus of most teams around PEBA was surely on 3b Andy Sharp, who eventually signed a 6 year deal worth 115 million with the rival Florida Featherheads. RGV didn’t have the resources to battle for most of the top free agents, but instead focused on some of the less acclaimed players like Vollmer. While Sharp will undoubtedly be a star, Vollmer has the potential to be a reliable everyday player, with a much cheaper cost of ownership.
On February 13th, the Ocelots signed yet another free agent reliever, this time Liu-chun Zhang. Zhang signed a one year deal worth 900k after being non-tendered by New Jersey. Zhang had some success in his first two seasons in the league, then as the Hitmen struggled the last two seasons, Zhang struggled as well. The Ocelots took a flyer on Zhang, with the hope that Zhang’s recent struggles were more a result of the environment he was in than anything else. Zhang has responded by going 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA to this point in the season.
At this point, the Ocelots had completely retooled the bullpen with Gonzalez, Cantin, Miller, and Zhang, all on relatively inexpensive deals. With holdovers Kei Tenno, Guy Bergeron, and Brooks Wallace, the Ocelots bullpen appeared set.
On February 25th, the Ocelots bargain shopping continued, with the signing of Bobby Watson to a one year deal worth 1.05 million. While Watson had never achieved the stardom projected for him earlier in his career, he did have 4 relatively productive seasons before turning age 30. But he had barely been replacement level each of the last two seasons. Now 32, the question was, could Watson deliver anything at all on a one year make good contract? He has batted .271 with 11 HR and 50 RBI to this point in the season, certainly not staggering numbers, but he is on a pace for a 1.7 WAR, which would be the second highest mark of his career if he achieves it.
On the same day, the Ocelots traded 3b Oliver Lucero to Havana, getting minor league center fielder Andres Gomez in return. With Watson signed, and Vollmer in the minors, it was clear that Lucero would not make the team out of spring training and was also now likely to be surpassed by Vollmer in the future. In Gomez, the Ocelots added yet another solid outfield prospect capable of playing center field. This made three potential future center fielders added during the off season.
Then on March 12th, the unthinkable happened. The Ocelots traded Jesus Garcia, the 14 million dollar man, to Canton in a 6 player swap. At the time, it seemed like a simple swap of salary. Garcia and a couple of 4A type players go to Canton, while pitchers Xio-peng Li, Randy Ready, and infielder Carlos Rodriguez came over to RGV. Even the Ocelots may not have realized it at the time, but this was the break that made the success of the 2022 season possible.
Ready pitched 12 games, including 4 starts, for RGV, early in the season, and as expected, was unremarkable before being released. Li was slightly better in his limited playing time with RGV, but despite decent numbers he could never quite gain the trust of the coaching staff and was recently released as well. Carlos Rodriguez would last all of 7 days with RGV, before being sent to Niihama-shi.
It was 7 days later, on March 19th, when the Ocelots struck a blockbuster trade with Niihama-shi, one that may not have been possible had the Jesus Garcia trade with Canton not occurred. The Ocelots dealt 40% of their projected starting rotation, Glenn Dixon and Darryl Lewis, as well as projected starting right fielder Roman Suarez, AND 3b Carlos Rodriguez, to the Ghosts. Between Dixon, Lewis, and Rodriguez, that was a large chunk of both present and future payroll that went out the door.
The return? LF Kiyomitsu Kichikawa, LF Brandon Meade, C Eisuke Koizumi, SP Iwane Sato, and minor league pitching prospect Luis Reyes.
The thinking at the time was that the Ocelots rotation was dealt a setback, but the Ocelots continued to claim that they were building for the future anyway. The players the Ocelots had received in return seemed to fit that narrative. But what may have gone unnoticed is that while the Ocelots hadn’t quite yet achieved real financial flexibility, they were much much closer. Maybe even closer than they themselves knew at the time.
Meade did a fine job for the Ocelots for half a season, and was a big key to the teams early offensive success. But a season ending injury ended his time with the Ocelots. Koizumi shuffled back and forth between Texarkana and RGV, but has settled into the role of the Ocelots backup catcher. Sure, his strike zone is from his nose to his toes, but when he does make contact it tends to put runs on the board. He is batting .253 with 10 HR and 25 RBI in 151 plate appearances. His recent 3 HR game displays why he has been so valuable to the Ocelots. Not many teams can boast they are getting 10 HR out of their starting catcher, much less their backup.
Starting pitcher Iwane Sato is 9-9 3.65 on the season. He seems to have been rather unloved in Niihama-shi, despite having put up some really good numbers. 13-6 3.45 in 20 starts for the Ghosts in 2018. 12-6 3.58 in 26 starts in 2019. 18-10 4.02 in 32 starts in 2020, leading the league in innings pitched with 221.2. That”s a 43-22 mark over 3 seasons with Niihama-shi. Then in 2021, his record dipped to 11-13, but his ERA was solid at 3.92 and his other numbers were right in line with his career norms. It should be noted, Sato’s 9 wins at this point are 3 more than Dixon and Lewis have COMBINED for in Niihama-shi to this point in the season, with Dixon spending a stint on the DL, and Lewis moving into the closer role, somewhat successfully it must be noted in all fairness.
Despite the contributions of Meade earlier this season, and Koizumi and Sato presently, the real prize in this deal could be pitching prospect Luis Reyes, as the 22 yr old is pushing hard to get into the Ocelots plans for 2023 and beyond. Reyes was 7-2 2.47 in 12 starts at AA Medicine Hat, and is 8-2 2.44 in 11 starts since his promotion to Texarkana. Word out of the Ocelots organization is that Reyes is a candidate to go to winter ball this off-season, where he might be asked to dump the curveball and work on turning the changeup into a devastating out pitch.
What about Kichikawa and the 7.5 million dollar contract that came over from Niihama-shi as part of the deal? The trail continues.
Fast forward to April 18th, two weeks into the young season, when the Ocelots announced they had dealt stud shortstop prospect Orlando Barron to the Yuma Bulldozers. Ocelots fans were furious. Critics around the league pounced on both teams. But how did the deal really work out?
The Yuma Bulldozers acquired Barron, as well as the contract of Kichikawa, left handed reliever Guy Bergeron, and 25 yr old minor league outfielder Ryosei Ikarishi. In return, they sent the Ocelots RF Esteban Miranda, minor league shortstop Ricardo Marino, 21 yr old pitching prospect Otis Pearson, a 2nd and 6th round draft pick, and 10 million dollars in cash.
Barron has worked out nicely for the Bulldozers, who presently sit in first place in the Desert Hills Division. Barron has batted .250/.348 with 24 stolen bags for the Bulldozers, and his +6.3 ZR at shortstop is second only to Juan Hernandez in the SL. Bergeron has been a modestly effective left handed reliever, 1-0 with 4 saves and 3.88 ERA. Kichikawa has been relegated to the minor leagues, simply a cog in the larger wheel of baseball life.
For the Ocelots, most of the return was geared towards the future. A pair of draft picks plus pitching prospect Pearson. But the financial relief for the Ocelots was huge, and allowed the team to open some other doors that would not have been possible without dealing Barron. Almost as importantly, Esteban Miranda blossomed into the teams regular DH and is batting .303 with 18 HR and 63 rbi.
During this period, the Ocelots had also signed veteran outfielder Russell Wright to a minor league contract on April 6th. Wright immediately contributed for the Ocelots, becoming a part of the early season carousel in center field, as well as playing the corner outfield spots. Wright has been a solid contributor all season, batting .282 with 7 Hr and 44 RBI. He has a +5.0 ZR in 44 games in RF, and has played the field respectably in both LF and CF as well.
On April 20th, the Ocelots would sign 3b Josh Shaffer to a minor league deal, and he would become a part of the infield rotation, though two stints on the DL have limited him to 40 games played.
On May 2nd, the Ocelots would trade left fielder Enrico Heredia, as well as 4 million cash, to Hartford for a 2nd round pick. The Ocelots were supposedly high on Heredia, especially with him coming off a breakout season where he hit 30 Hr and drove in 98 runs in 481 at bats. The end result, aside from the 2nd round draft pick, was freeing themselves of the additional 3 years on Heredia’s deal. This additional payroll room in the out years would soon come in handy.
On May 11th, the Ocelots put the new found financial flexibility to use, signing star outfielder Orlando Reyes to an 8 year contract worth 114 million dollars. The first 6 years of the contract are guaranteed, which will takes Reyes through his age 33 season. Beyond that, the team holds a pair of options at 17 million dollars per season. Reyes gave the team a superb centerfielder who also offers solid power from the right side. While Reyes has been used mostly in CF, he has recently moved to RF in order to keep him as healthy as possible, with Trevor Powell doing most of the heavy lifting in CF.
Just prior to the trade deadline, the Ocelots made two more deals, sending some mid round draft picks to land outfielders Ogai Kato and Jose Padilla, both
While the Ocelots could certainly have been described as rebuilding considering their two prior seasons, which consisted of 123 and 90 losses respectively, what pundits may have failed to grasp is that the club that took the field to start the 2022 season was in no way a young team.
The rebuilt bullpen that started the season consisted of seasoned veterans. Marcos Gonzalez, Martin Cantin, Jon Miller, Liu Chun Zhang, Kei Tenno, and Brooks Wallace. Cantin and Miller entering their 9th seasons. Gonzalez his 8th. Zhang, Tenno and Wallace each entering their 5th seasons.
The infield opened the season with Leslie McDonald at second, Bobby Watson at third, Trevor Veeneman at shortstop, and Richie Norman over at first. McDonald, Watson, and Veeneman were grizzled veterans. Norman, at 28, was the youngest of the bunch, but he had played parts of the previous 4 seasons in the PEBA. 32 year old Josh Shaffer became a part of the infield a little later on, though he is on the disabled list at the moment.
The outfield was a carousel early in the season, especially center field, but has become a solid veteran group consisting of Orlando Reyes, Russell Wright, Javier Padilla, and Trevor Powell.
It’s not as if there weren’t question marks at the beginning of the season. Center field was a problem. The catching jobs had been handed to catch and throw types. The rotation consisted of an under appreciated Iwane Sato, three young and unproven pitchers in Atilio Gaivo, Dave Parkinson, and Ruben Hernandez, and then a group of pitchers fighting for the 5th spot in the rotation, none of them expected to do much other than chew up some innings.
The story in RGV, as in any place where GM Matt Higgins has run a ballclub, is that the only constant is change. And this season has been no different, as the Ocelots have left no stone unturned in their quest to put the best possible product on the field. Whether it was through trades, signing big name free agents like Orlando Reyes, or trolling through minor league free agents for the likes of Russell Wright and Trevor Powell, the Ocelots have taken every opportunity to find the right players to get the job done.
More importantly, it appears the Ocelots have done so with clear objectives in mind, something that hasn’t always seemed to be the case when GM Higgins is concerned. The team has made improvements without sacrificing talented prospects from the minor league system along the way. In fact, additions to the system this season like Luis Reyes, Otis Pearson, and Dean Walden have only strengthened the system.
The team seems to have a clear strategy in the outfield, where it has put together the best group of defensive outfielders possible in order to help flyball pitchers like Barton and Parkinson. When you consider the seasons Barton and Parkinson are having, it clearly seems to be a strategy that is working. Sure, Padilla was recently brought in to boost the offense and his glove is questionable, but it’s not uncommon for Padilla to move over to DH some games, sit others, and be replaced by a defensive replacement as early as the 7th inning when he does start in LF. If anything, the Ocelots treat Padilla as more a necessary evil than any type of savior.
From everything we see on the field, it’s easy to surmise that the team has spent a considerable amount of time making sure it brings the right players into the clubhouse. Not just guys who fill up a stat sheet. But guys who want to play together, who want to pick each other up when the game hangs in the balance. In winning 8 of their last 10 games, the Ocelots have won 5 of those in their final at bat.
Manager Tadakuni Hayashi certainly has to receive some of the credit, as he always seems to find a way to get the most out of his team. No matter what players he has at his disposal, he finds a way to make things work.
Clearly at this point, the Ocelots have brought excitement to the faithful in the RGV. The stadium is full most every night, and the Ocelots seem to be feeding on the energy of the zealous crowds, posting a dominant 42-22 mark at home this season. After starting the season 7-8 in their first 15 games at home, the Ocelots are 35-14 in their last 49 home contests.
What may have finally have won over the remaining skeptics was the Ocelots latest road trip, when they went into Kentucky for a 3 game series that had the chance to change the season for both teams. Going into the series, the Thoroughbreds trailed the Ocelots by just 2.5 games in both the division and wild card races. Two weeks earlier the Thoroughbreds had come into RGV and taken 3 of 4 games. But when the Ocelots pulled off an improbable victory in 10 innings in the finale of the series to complete the sweep, they had stuck a dagger through the hearts of the Thoroughbreds and had left them for all but dead.
But can the Ocelots close the deal and make the playoffs? Winning the division seems to be out of the question, as Florida seems to have circled the wagons after the loss of Chris York, and much like they do every season come August, they are stepping on the gas and beginning to pull away from the pack. While a wild card berth would at least seem likely, it’s important to remember that the Ocelots play 27 of their final 37 games on the road. Of the 44 games remaining at this point, 9 of them are against Florida. Of the final 44 games, only 13 of them are against teams out of contention for a playoff spot. If the Ocelots are to make the playoffs, it is clear they still have a lot of work to do, and they are going to have to earn it.