By Francis Ferry, NLN baseball beat writer

May 6, 2019: Aurora, Colorado – When the 2019 season began, there was scant hope for a championship season for the Borealis. Fans lamented the loss of ‘Quagmire’ and Keller. The youth that the team had been stockpiling hadn’t shown up yet. Experts had Aurora picked to finish 4^th, 5^th and 6^th, all behind Bakersfield, Reno and Yuma, while only the StatsLab computer service (3^rd) and Northern Lights News own Ray D. Enzé (a biased 2^nd) seeing Aurora even having a shot at the post-season.

And yet, here we are, 1/5 of the way through the 2019 season and Aurora finds itself in a tie for first with Bakersfield, in a tight Desert Hills race with the Bears and Yuma (and presumably a Reno club that will figure it out once it stops getting hurt), and a 20-12 record that is tied for tops in all of the PEBA.

But… Is this year’s version of the Aurora Borealis a true contender or a pretender waiting to fall back to Earth? A week until Mother’s Day may be too soon to make that call, but there are some interesting contradictions with this year’s club. Contradictions? Yes. To point:

Aurora leads the SL in AVE, but are 6th in OBP – thanks to Aurora having the 2nd fewest walks in the league. They may be 8th in HR, but are third in SLG thanks to 67-2B (only Crystal Lake is also over 60) and 7-3B (Aurora has the 2nd most XBH in the SL). Aurora also has the fewest offensive K’s, by a large margin (at 184. Reno is next at 197, followed in third place is Tempe at 209). If nothing else, at least the Borealis put the ball in play – a lot of good it does them, they’re tied for 7th in runs scored. You digest those numbers – is this a Good offensive team or a Not SO Good offensive team?

On the mound the starters (3.75) and the bullpen (3.76) have nearly identical numbers, yet one is good enough for 4th best (starters) and the other 7th best in the SL. The 125 runs allowed is the 5th best mark in the SL, which nearly matches the 129 the team has scored. As has been the case the past few years, Aurora’s low offensive strikeout numbers are complemented by their high pitchers K’s – 290, 30 better then runner up Bakersfield. Aurora pitchers have given up the third fewest walks. Their .237 OAVG and .304 OBP (both 2nd best) reflect this K/BB ratio, but they are 7th in OSLG, reflecting the 36 HR given up – 3rd worst in the SL. You digest those numbers – is this a Good pitching team or a Not SO Good pitching team?

Let us highlight a few outstanding performances thus far.

The offensive MVP at the 20% mark of the season isn’t the hard-hitting Tennessee boy with the impressive scouting reports. Instead it’s the 2011 draftee from Carson, CA, who has bounced through Aurora’s minors and finally made a splash last year at Thornton. Kane ‘Dingus’ Talley is hitting .392 with 7 HR and 15 RBI and although he may strikeout a bit more than one would like, his surprise start to the season reminds one of fellow outfielders Ricardo Cruz, Ronald McCall and Ronald Elmore before him– former-Aurora minor leaguers who splashed seemingly from nowhere when Aurora scouts felt they would do otherwise.

Speaking of Britt, he seemingly is continuing his growth as the 24 year-old is hitting .320 with 6 HR and a team leading 17 RBI. Will this be the season that the promise translates into 30 HR and 100 RBI? Aurora is known to be looking to sign the youngster before season end and avoid the certain arbitration they’re facing in the fall. For now, tight budget constraints are making that look unlikely. With the possibility of Cory Pierce playing elsewhere in 2020, Britt’s money just might appear sooner than later.

A third player I want to highlight is a guy who’s not even supposed to be here. Aurora’s top pick in 2017, Mike Hale was supposed to begin the season at AAA for a little more seasoning, but an oddity in the rules for calculating service time v. options at the PEBA offices deemed that Hale was out of options and the Borealis had no choice but to retain the young, highly talented outfielder. He’s played in (and started most of) 28 games – thanks primarily to Pierce going on the DL, and after a slow start, has his average at .263 – and has started to show a bit more gap pop as well. He also has 4 steals – something that manager Don James has indicated is going to increase.

Thus far on the mound the talk has centered all around a player Aurora GM Will Topham was willing to let go as a failure. Mike Provost had vesting options for this year and next and after a very disappointing half a season, Topham had Provost taken from the rotation and sent to the ‘pen so that he didn’t reach the starts needed to vest. Then Rojas went down to injury and Provost was back on the mound and vested for 2019. What a stroke of luck that has turned out to be. Provost has been nails over 7 starts with 58 K and only 2 BB in 53 IP – adding up to a 1.51 ERA. Walks and Gopher Balls did Provost in last year, but the walks are way down (he had 47 in 169 IP) and he’s allowed only 2 HR, compared to 15 in 2018. Was it that Provost got the message last year, or has maturity finally caught up with the young Canadian?

Aurora’s longest tenured starter is ‘Sawmill’, currently enjoying his 5^th season on the Front Range. He was having a marvelous season in 2017 before he ruptured a tendon in his finger in his 19^th start on the season. He seemed just off in 2018 as he made all 32 of his projected starts – for the 3^rd time in 4 seasons at Aurora, but his numbers reflected an on-again, off-again, nature that his first four years followed. 2019 he’s on-again: 5-1, 2.34 ERA with 37 K and 8 BB in 42 IP. The soon-to-be 31 year-old Francisco has 2 more years left on a 5-year deal he signed in 2016, and Aurora is hoping this season is a sign of positive things to come.

There are two members of this years squad who were on that 2011 team that ushered in the Topham era that remain in Aurora – Jose Rivera and Bryant Burris (ok… Pierce played a part of that 2011 campaign). Burris, a free-agent after the season (and word is he’s playing hard ball on an extension), is having a renaissance of a year. After losing his closer job due to poor performance in 2017, he regained it at the end of last year and thus far has 11 saves (in 11 opportunities) and a miniscule 0.60 ERA.  Hope is Burris returns to the 40+ save seasons he had in his first two years on the job, after sub-planting the ‘Vulture’ in that role. Currently Burris has 169 saves and is 21 short of Suárez’ team record 190. If things go well for this year’s edition of the Borealis, it just might be that Burris hits 200 and Aurora is unexpectedly in the post-season.

So what does the remaining 4/5 have to offer? Questions…

Aside from can the above name players continue to perform: This team has been known for it’s offensive prowess over the years, but the hidden truth has always been it’s pitching. Anastasio López  has been horrid in 4 of his 6 starts and, though his 51 K and 8 BB in 42 innings are dandy, he needs to keep the other team off the board.

Will the young duo of Christian Murdoch and Junior Cook solidify the back-end of the rotation or will Aurora simply need to average 6 runs a game – an act that’s not looking very promising. Cook has one start under his belt – and a good one, but after some work over the winter learning a change, Aurora needs most starts to be good ones. Murdoch started 2019 slowly, but he’s been spot-on his last three starts and Aurora sure could use him being the pitcher that so many teams coveted.

John Foster? Enough said. The ‘Gypsy’ is off to a better start than the past two seasons, but he still needs to produce the power numbers his counter-part Britt has put up. Aurora has invested a lot of time and patience in Topham’s first draft choice and this is the year they not only expect a return – they need one to be successful.

Speaking of investment, Aurora has forked out $13M to bring Miguel Salinas up-slope from Bakersfield to add punch to a line-up that has been a tad punch-less recently. Think of Salinas as the modern incarnation of ‘El Chupacabra’. Matching his ‘an RBI per game’ record of 2012 would no doubt suit the Borealis well.

Come August 1, who will be the starting shortstop? It’s a given that Rivera is the man in the infield – anywhere in the infield, really, but… Nick Giles had a solid spring and got off to a splendid start: .340, with 7-2B and 3 HR in 14 games before a sore back sidelined him. Drafted to be the SS of the future, it would seem the future is now, but if so, what of Rivera? Hello, John Foster… are you watching this?

Assuming Pierce and Hale nail down two outfield spots, who will be the main dude in the third outfield spot? Ferrell, the top pick deemed the future of the outfield at the time? Burton – last years unsung star? River Pope, who played strongly in 2018, but a poor spring doomed him to AAA (where he’s hitting .348)? Unless he’s dealt, it’s safe to assume that the outfield will be Pierce and whoever’s swinging a hot bat.