[ed: attached are a partial breakout of what appears to be high-level commentary on the results of off-season work done on the starting rotations of each team in the Rising Sun division. It provides opinions and rankings, and as such perhaps says more about the Cliff Hangers’ front office than it does any particular player or group.]

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 2022 Projections & Assessments: Starting Rotation

Shin Seiki—Overall Grade: 12.5/5 Stars

This is a club who you can argue carries five number 1 starters. Actually, given that our people report that Hack Sakamoto is most likely being pushed to the pen, we can easily argue that the Evas have at least 6 #1s on their staff. There exists a huge gap between Shin Seiki and the rest of the division. This is what we call domination.

1. Yakamochi Suitani (LHP, 6’1” 220) – Age 26: The only thing that differentiates Suitani from the ancient US baseball star Randy Johnson is about 9 inches of height. Blistering fast ball, and a slider that makes Suitani royalty. He recently signed a 6-season extension for less than $10M/year, making him the most underpaid player in the PEBAverse. Clearly his agent is not the brightest egg to fall out of the sack. Contract Status: Signed through 2028 ($6M-$9M)

2. Conner Hurst (RHP, 6’5” 220) Age 26: Since coming to the PEBA in 2017, Hurst has never failed to throw 200 innings, and logged only one full season with an ERA over 3.00. He throws a ++ fastball, a + Curve, and augments that with a solid slider. Would be a #1 on most teams. Contract Status: Under contract through 2024 ($14.5M) with two more team options

3. Juni’ichi Yoshino (LHP, 6’0” 190) Age 31: Remarkable veteran who won 23 games two seasons ago in Japan. Transitioned to PEBA brilliantly (16-9, 3.11). Still throws 94. Still has a splitter that drops off the table. Would be a #1 on many middle-division teams. Should feast on #3s. Contract Status: Free agent after this season

4. Kazunari Kobayashi (LHP, 5’10” 195) Age 32: We still sting over Kobayashi’s ridiculous reasons for turning down our major league deal prior to 2021, despite offering more cash than he wanted to sign a minor league deal. But that is water under the bridge. Or spilled milk. Whatever. What is relevant is that this lefty pairs a glorious changeup with a 95 MPH fastball from the portside Would probably be a #1 for most teams in the division. Perfect pitcher for Genesis Park. Contract Status: Possibly eligible for arbitration, and still making less overall than he would have as a Cliff Hanger.

5. Arinori Mochizuki (RHP, 6’0” 245) Age 25: Here’s a guy who throws 101 with a changeup and a cutter, and who is probably still growing into his future. Yes, he could be a #1 on some teams, and if he eventually gets that BB/9 number down under 3.0 he may well wind up being one. Contract Status: Under contract through 2023 ($1M)

Future: If there is a bright spot for us, it’s that for perhaps the first time, Shin Seiki has very few major names in their minor league system.

Niihama-shi—Overall Grade: 3.0/5 Stars

This could be a dangerous rotation in 2022, but given their price tags will almost certainly have to be broken up in 2023 or face bankrupting the team. 2023 will see them with something on the order of $46M tied up in three starters, and that’s before addressing Koki Watanabe’s situation.

1. Roberto Rodriguez (RHP, 5’10” 210) – Age 34: Rodriguez was a star in New Jersey before the Hitmen faded. Acquired in spring trade. Still has a lot left in the tank, though his TTO numbers suggest he’s falling off a bit, and his fastball is down a mile or two from his peak days. Merely moving from MC Waterfront Park to the Maze will be like a weight lifted from his shoulders. Should be solid in 2022, but expect this contract to be a pretty heavy anchor by 2023 or 2024. Contract Status: Signed through 2025 ($15-$20M, w/Player option for 2026)

2. Glenn Dixon (RHP, 6’10” 200) – Age 31: Throws hard, and has three major league quality pitches. Good mechanics have kept his injury history clean, but hasn’t been able to manage more than 5-6 IP/outing in the past five seasons. Okay as a #3, hard to see as a competitive #2. He may win any time out this season (or not), but the more interesting question about Dixon is what the club will do with his lead weight of a deal. His contract was ridiculously back-weighted, and while his 2022 paycheck registers at $7M, the world changes for him come 2023. Contract Status: Under contract through 2025 ($25.5M)

3. Koki Watanabe (RHP, 6’2” 240) – Age 26: Throws 98 MPH with a curveball that breaks knees. What’s not to like. He’s been a star since breaking into Japanese baseball at age 19, and he’s won big everywhere he’s gone. Struggled last season, but then, who in Japan didn’t? Solid pitcher. Probably a solid #3. Contract Status: Free Agent after this season.

4. Floyd Davis (RHP, 6’5” 205) – Age 34: Veteran who is aging gracefully. He’s a dependable inning eater, if nothing else. Solid season in NII last year (8-9, 4.13 ERA), though we wonder how much the Maze masked that. Had a rebound year in 2020, but otherwise, FIP numbers have been degrading since 2017. Five good pitches makes us wonder if he would benefit from a move to the pen—though then he becomes a pricey middle-man. Contract Status: Under contract through 2023 ($5.8M)

5. Roger Keller (RHP, 6’2” 210) – Age 26: The guy throws 101 MPH and strikes out over 10 PEBA-quality hitters per nine innings. That’s the real deal. Unfortunately, he also has walked about a half-dozen a game, too, which is hard on a defense. This means he’s essentially the right-handed equivalent to our own #5 project. [ed: The Cliff Hangers acquired Hyeon-Cheong Yong in the off-season] Your call on the outcome, but he should be interesting to watch. Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible

The Future: 26 year-old Steven Clark appears to be the most interesting starter in the Ghost’s system, though they have a handful of guys who could possibly take a step up.

Lupin—Overall Grade: 3.0/5 Stars

Obviously, we expected more from our rotation in 2021, and instead we got trampled. However, there is much to like about our work revamping the starting staff this season. We think we can interchange our #1 and #2 guys, and adding a semi-reasonably paid Hashimoto to the roster allows us to move Nishi back a spot, which then becomes a strength.

1. Akira Watanabe (RHP, 6’220” 220) – Age 26: Watanabe is not an overpowering pitcher, but his fastball, changeup, and splitter combination can be deadly. He has been fragile the past two seasons, and represents a bit of a risk at age 26. FIP shows him as better than last year’s ERA suggests. Borderline #1, but serviceable. Contract Status: Under contract through 2025 ($7.5/$8.5/$10)

2. Shinobu Takeuchi (RHP, 6’3” 235) – Age 27: Takeuchi struggled out of the gate last season, but righted himself in the second half to register a 14-14 record with a semi-respectable 4.25 ERA. He’s still throwing 98 on the gun, and his slider is still sharp, but he’s not striking PEBA batters out at the rates we expected. Takeuchi is a borderline #1 starter, but should be a solid #2. Given that he keeps the ball on the ground, defensive upgrades around the infield should help him. Contract Status: Under contract through 2024 ($9M, $10,5M) with a team option for one more season.

3. Tadamasa Hashimoto (RHP, 6’9” 230) – Age 29: Hashimoto has been better than league average on several poor teams. Good control (which we need), limits home runs (which we need), and carries four serviceable pitches. Probably better than the average #3, but not by a wide margin. Contract Status: Under contract through 2025 ($7M, $10M, $13M)

4. Tusyoshi Nishiyama (RHP, 6’2 210) – Age 33: Steady inning eater until last season’s finger problem. Performed well against PEBA hitters. If he recovers, he’ll be a better than average guy in the #4 slot this season and probably next. Contract Status: Signed through 2023 ($5.6M), with two more team options.

5. Hyeon-cheong Yong (LHP, 6’3” 235) – Age 27: Our scouts have watched HCY work out in the off-season and confirm his fastball, curveball, and slider are brilliant. The question is whether the small uptick his numbers showed in his ability to command these pitches is real or whether it was an aberration of random variance. He’s growing through his middle-stages. Classic high risk/reward situation. Worth finding out. Contract Status: Under team control for three seasons

Our Future: We have several interesting guys in the AA/AAA ranks, but no one with startling expectations. Perhaps the most interesting option is the idea of using 22-yo Francois Gosselin as a starting pitcher.

Neo-Tokyo—Overall Grade: 2.5/5 Stars

Every slot is filled with a player of some interest, but to date, none have fulfilled the expectation we had expected. They do not appear to have anyone able to hold down the top-side of a competitive rotation, and they slant to the left side—perhaps to excess.

1. Hirohisa Narita (LHP, 6’4” 240) – Age 28: Middle of the order guy at best. Three quality pitches, with exceptional velocity, but he doesn’t strike out enough hitters to make up for the fact that he walks nearly 4 batters a game. Will not be able to compete against most #1/#2 pitchers in the league. Contract Status: Free Agent after this season

2. Luis Valdez (LHP, 5’8” 215) – Age 26: Made his debut with Florida at 21 years old, but despite very good stuff has never had a breakout season. Expect this could be his year. One of the more gifted pitchers in the cycle. Contract Status: Eligible for Arbitration in 2023.

3. Takejiro Daikawa (LHP, 6’2” 240) – Age 26: Adequate as an LRS pitcher, but was overpowered in the PEBAverse. Being pressed into a starting role, but we will be surprised to see him survive the first half of the season without a return to the bullpen, or maybe even AAA. Contract status: Arbitration Eligible

4: Tony Cuellar (LHP, 6’1” 255)—Age 23: Young guy with an interesting future. Blistering fastball, good side arsenal. Has had success in the bullpen. May have enough to be successful as a back-end starter. Clearly that Akira will soon find out. Contract Status: Eligible for Arbitration

5: Juan Garcia (RHP, 6’4” 190)—Age 30: Veteran pitcher with average stuff. Could be the most steady guy on the staff, though will not _ever_ carry a team. Contract Status: Free Agent in 2023. At $2.5M, may be extended.

Future: 22 yo, Ricardo Garcia is the only real prospect the organization has in its near-term arsenal, though there are some rumors the Akira front office may continue to pursue last seasons’ attempts to use 24 yo reliever Fiasco Takahashi in a starting role again sometime this year.

Okinawa—Overall Grade: 2 stars out of 5.

Okinawa revamped their rotation with three free agent signings this past off-season. However, they did it on the cheap. The Shisa’s entire rotation prices out at around $11M, so it’s probably no surprise that it contains no pitcher who we think grades out as a #1 or #2 starter. On the other hand, the group is under team control for the next two seasons, so if they exceed our expectations, the Shisa should be set for a little while.

Tsuginori Honma (RHP, 5’10” 245)—Age 24: Highly regarded pitcher who, despite his youth, is now a 5-year veteran with the team (was a #1 draft pick at one time). Had success in Japan, but struggled heavily in transition. Gave up a league-leading 38 homers last season, and lost 18 games. First month of 2022 could be telling. Regardless, matched against top-of-the-rotation guys, we figure he’ll struggle again. Contract Status: Signed through 2023 ($500K).

Chris Graves (RHP, 6’1” 215)—Age 33: Brought to Okinawa after four unremarkable seasons in Glouchester (Marseille). Solid veteran who knows how to pitch. His results have rarely been in the top half of the league, however. Our best projection for this season is a 4.20 ERA and maybe 8 wins. At 33 we think he’s on the downside of a workmanlike career. Contract Status: Signed through 2023 ($4.3M, w/Two Team Options)

Yoshiaki Rin (RHP, 6’2” 210)—Age 29: Rin has won big at times in his career, but struggled to an 11-14 record last season despite a reasonable 4.34 ERA. He’s a solid inning eater, but his history says he’ll walking upwards of 5 batters a game. Contract Status: Under contract through 2023 ($970K)

Alex Stinnett (RHP, 6’2” 205)—Age 32: Comes to Okinawa after seven seasons in Duluth. Gets by on changes of pace built off about a thousand different pitch types. Contract Status: Under contract through 2023: $3.2M

Danny Hendricks (RHP, 6’2” 210)—Age 31: Signed to a three year deal in the winter after four seasons with the Dinosaurs. Fargo’s is a pitcher’s park, but Hendricks hasn’t registered an ERA under 5.00 since 2019. Perhaps the change of scenery will work wonders. We’re guessing not, but suggest one look at his strikeout rate (which has fallen precipitously every year he’s been a professional) in the first quarter of the season to determine what his future looks like. Contract Status: Under contract through 2024 ($4.1M/$5M).

Future: Among the reasons the Okinawa club played in the free agent market is probably that their farm system has no eye-popping prospects.