[ed: This is the latest in the Cliffi-Leaks scandal, a document from the oddly-named Technological Sanity Department]

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Winter Meeting Pre-Read
Brad “The Fake-Baseball Architect” DeCoster
(Chief Analyst, Technological Sanity Department)
November 22, 2022

Ancient SABR Guru Bill James (Hallowed Be Thy Name) once wrote that the now-defunct Chicago Cubs not only had to hit a lot of home runs, but that they had to lead the league in home runs by a wide margin. This, you see, was in the earliest days of the attempts to capture the value of ballparks and how they shape the statistical output of the players who play in them. This “ballpark factor” is now taken for truth, but at the time James (HBTN) wrote these comments, it was among the many things that established baseball men found annoying about him and his remarkable approaches.

What James (HBTN) meant by his statement was that, since the old Wrigley Field created home runs like they were Dugger kids, merely hitting a fair number of the long balls could mask the fact that the team’s hitters were poor, or just average. The park could make the man, as it were. The problem is, of course, a bit more complicated than James (HBTN) first posited—we know, for example, that in short periods of play, the players do influence the park’s output … or perhaps better put, given limited sample sizes, it’s very hard to extract the variances between players’ performances in every ballpark to significant accuracy. But the fact is that every team in the upper levels of organized ball understand this relationship better now because of this remarkable thought by this remarkable man.

*** A fun and interesting “Did You Know?” Did you know that Bill James (HBTN) did all of his work by hand, with paper and pencil, while working the late shift as a security night watchman? Greatest.Job.Ever ***

It is, therefore, important for us to understand our ballpark because it can and should influence the kinds of players we focus on as we craft our team. James (HBTN), for example, knew before the Cubs did that the north siders needed to accentuate power to take advantage of their park (just as the Cardinals needed to be speedy in Busch Stadium in the 80s, and … blah, blah, blah). Since we play 81 games on the road, it’s also important to understand our opponents’ ballparks—especially those of our division rivals (wherein we will play a total of 36 games).

So, let’s get to it, eh?

Here are the base factors that parks in the Rising Sun division played to in 2021. As you can see, the division is filled with parks that inflate offense. In fact, per our proprietary factoring scheme (which we will discuss later), the Rising Sun is neck-and-neck with the IL’s Seaboard division for being the most offensive minded divisions in all of baseball.

BASIC PARK FACTORS

OKI: Shisa Stadium – 1.10

LUP: Castle of Cagliostro – 1.07

SS: Genesis Park – 1.02

NT: Neo-Tokyo Grounds – 1.02

NII: Oikake’s Maze – .96

The simpleminded might be tempted to see this and move along, merely suggesting we get a bunch of good hitters, and set them about to taking target practice on the short fences atthe Castle. However, I want to get the entire leadership team focused on peeling the onion. There are nuances here, folks. Many nuances. So before we go off dialing up the agents of home run wallopers with our Paypal accounts in hand, let’s look at the next level down—that being, in honor of James’ quote above (HBTN), each park’s ability to generate home runs.

HR PARK FACTORS

LUP: Castle of Cagliostro – 1.23

OKI: Shisa Stadium – 1.03

SS: Genesis Park – 1.00

NT: Neo-Tokyo Grounds – 0.98

NII: Oikake’s Maze – .86

Here we can see several interesting things. For example, our park and Neo-Tokyo’s park are at opposites in how they create offense. The Akira’s overall park factor is 1.02, while ours is 1.07. But where Lupin’s PF was buoyed by an HR factor of a whopping 1.23, Neo-Tokyo’s base park factor was as low as it was due to a lower-than average home run rate. One can surmise then, that offense at the Neo-Tokyo Grounds is generated in ways other than the long ball. If we go with this information in mind, we can see that Neo-Tokyo’s front office may well served by focusing on line-drive and spray hitters, whereas we—like the Cubs before us—do actually benefit from true power hitters.

Summarizing this idea across the league, we could say that Lupin’s is the only park in the division where home runs were the dominant factor in the creation of offense. The eyesore behemoth that is Shin Seiki’s new Genesis Park appeared to be essentially neutral (more on Genesis Park later, though). The rest seem to perform as if they are weighted toward the line drive.

*** Did you know: Lupin hit only 141 HR last season, “good” for 13th best in the SL. Our pitchers allowed 171. We finished … uh … last in the division with 59 wins. Conversely, in 2020 the Cliff Hangers hit an astounding 215 homers (19 more than its next rival), and allowed “only” 182. We won the Neo-Tokyo Cup. ***

Alternatively, we can use this approach to begin thinking about pitchers who would be successful in the Castle vs. those in, let’s say, Niihama-shi’s Oikake’s Maze.  The Maze seriously restricted homers in 2021, so, theoretically, a fly-ball pitcher wearing a Ghost uniform will be a lot happier than that same pitcher might be in Lupin chartreuse.

RECOMMENDATION FOR BASE PLAYER TYPE IN THE CASTLE

We think we should focus on pitchers who limit walks and home runs. Strikeouts are always nice, but probably not as valuable in the Castle as a guy who gets ground balls.

On the offensive side, while we never advocate making outs, a few strikeouts shouldn’t worry us too much. In fact, a strikeout is probably preferable to a ground out in many cases. The Castle probably plays well to guys who show some patience and who swing heavy lumber.

PROPRIETARY BALLPARK ASSESSMENTS – Let’s Play Two

All of the data we’ve supplies is collected openly and made public by the independent StatsLab service, so given that our opposition is intelligent and have skin in the game, we have to assume they are aware of these kinds of things.

This is why, within our department for Technical Sanity, we have gone deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole that is ballpark influences. We have cut data, and slided our rules. Taken laser measurements of each park in the division, and we have modeled and simulated in a thousand-thousand virtual universe. We have computed, and figured. We have paid for soil samples, and assessed the sleeping pattern of ground crew members at each park. We have stared at numbers until our eyes have frozen into place.

And as a result, we have created our own view of park factors. We call it the Ballpark Slice-o-Matic (or BSM), and we think it’s a better way of assessing ballparks because it weighs the actual physical factors in and around the park (dimensions, wind, humidity levels, altitudes, etc.) in assessing the park’s fundamentals. This should theoretically reduce the uncertainty and error that is inherent in the use of player stats to infer park performance. It gives us even more useful information when it comes to our park and our competitors, and in the end it gives us some insight and admiration for the designers of one Genesis Park.

At the end of the day, our process provides us average park factors, as well as park factors for right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters. The results are telling.

One thing to note is that, like much of the PEBA, BSM suggests the Rising Sun slants toward helping left-handed batters (total factor 1.031 vs. 1.002). In fact, given BSM’s proprietary algorithms, we see that only one division in the league favors right-handed bats. In addition, it can be said that the RS is clearly built on the most offensive-minded parks in the SL.

Let’s look at these numbers on a team-by-team basis, starting with us.

Lupin: BSM projects that the Castle’s smallish dimensions will reduce doubles and triples, while increasing homers. This seems to support conclusions drawn above. In addition, it is a slight positive to average—a fact that makes our dismal performance last season that much more obscene. The park’s lefty-slant is gentle, and the ballpark’s factors remain positive to RHB. This means we should not be afraid to acquire right-handed hitters of high quality (*more later). We do, however, need to have high-quality arms in the stable that throw from the left side (and we need to realize their numbers might be a little inflated as we go about retaining and rewarding them).

Okinawa: With an overall BSM factor of 1.03, Shisa Stadium is both beautiful and a fairly strong generator of offense, and like the Castle, much of that comes from the home run. It also favors the left-handed hitter, but that slant is even more gentle than ours. We suggest that for general purposes, Shisa Park can be considered neutral on the platoon scale.

Neo-Tokyo: BSM describes Neo-Tokyo Grounds as the opposite of the Castle in just about every way. It depresses all offense except the extra-base hit, and it is gently slanted to favor the right-hand hitter rather than the left. The humidity level around the park has a tendency to be high, which reduces the impact of fly balls. At 0.975, BSM considers NTG to be the most pitcher-friendly park in the division. This suggests that if we design our club steeply along the lines our ballpark suggests (left-handed power hitters, pitchers who don’t strike out a lot of guys, but who limit HR and BB), we may have trouble winning the nine games a year we play at Neo-Tokyo.

Niihama-shi: Oikake’s Maze should play like a warped Neo-Tokyo grounds. BSM predicts the park will be a sharp constraint on homers, and a strong multiplier of doubles and triples. This agrees with the stats-based park factors we started with. It also likes RHB a bit more than it does lefties, but that slant is so small as to be discounted. Basically this is a big-ol’ park with lots of outfield grass. One can expect the best Ghost squads will be built around strikeout pitchers and rangy defenders who can make good contact.

Which brings us to the Eva Empire and the wonder that is Genesis Park.

Shin Seiki: Oh, what wonders money can buy! There are about a billion things going into BSM’s rating of the park as a 1.053 makes it the most offensive-minded park in the division. In fact, across the whole of the PEBA only Manchester’s Whiten Field scores higher. Its deep walls play to doubles and triples in a way that is almost identically to Niihama-shi’s park. But this is a place of smoke and mirrors. It is a run-stifling place hidden smack-dab in the middle of an offensive powder keg. What do I mean, you say? Well …

I mean that the charm of Genesis park lies in the way left-handed batters and right-handed batters look at it—and, of course, pitchers of both types, too. BSM calls the L/R split of this park (1.136/1.006). It is a place where right-handed power hitters and right-handed slap-hitters go to die. It is a place where left-handed hitters go to get candy bars named after them. It is the very best park in all of baseball for a left-handed hitter to play in.

And therefore, it is a place that one MUST.HAVE.RELIABLE.LHP.TO.WIN.IN.

In all seriousness, this is a big deal. Given the configuration of the rest of the ballparks in the division (and indeed across the league), and given that the Shin Seiki brain trust did not change any key dimensions of their park when they moved, this almost certainly represents a major tactical element to the team’s management strategy.

In context of ballparks in the rest of the division, it is quite a brilliantly designed park, accentuating left-handed power, right-handed gap power, and left-handed power pitching. [ed: interesting to notice that SS’s current rotation includes lefties in mega-ace Suitani, ex-23-game-winner Yoshino, and super-solid vet Kobayashi.]