LUPIN SEES ROTATION MUTATION
January 21, 2022: Toyama — One can excuse Cliff Hanger fans for getting one of those grotesque expressions on their face when they look back on team’s first season in the PEBA. You know, one of those expressions your mom used to say would cause your face to freeze up. One where the lips pull back, and the stomach seems moments away from gushing up through your teeth. Some fans thought the team was a horror show, others a monster movie full of mutants and radioactive goo. While factually these fans may be off a bit, some of these thoughts are not completely without merit.
First, some recent history:
During the 2021 season, the Lupin Cliff Hanger’s staff ERA was 4.90. Only three teams in the PEBA registered a worse number. We shall not name the notorious three as they are a matter of public record, so anyone who is so inclined can do that bit of detective work themselves. There is no honor in punching down, after all, especially when “down” starts at 4.90.
Breaking this number down further, we can see where the problem really sat:
Starting Rotation ERA: 5.40 (15th in the SL)
Bullpen ERA: 3.99 (8th in the SL)
Let’s face it, the bullpen’s 3.99 was no sparkling diamond, but even the blindest of umpires would be hard-pressed to miss the obvious in those numbers. For those few, however, here are a few more facts of random nature: Thirteen men took the mound to start a game for Lupin last season. The only man to start a game and register an ERA of less than 4.00 was bullpen ace Monotubo Hirano, and he started only one game. Toyokazu Goto, a 25-year-old semi-prospect was given 9 starts, and parlayed them into a whopping 6.56 ERA.
Injuries, of course, can take some of the blame. At the end of June, the team lost their #3 starter when veteran Tsuyoshi Nishiyama tore a tendon in his finger. Then Akira Watanabe’s shoulder got inflamed, and eh had to sit out the squad’s improbable run through September. Overall, Shinobu Takeuchi, the staff ace, was the only Lupin starter who was able to take the ball every cycle. He finished with a respectable 14-14 record, and a mediocre 4.35 ERA in his 31 appearances.
The rest of the numbers are true ugly: Yoshitora Koyama, the team’s #4 starter at the beginning of the year, saw 19 starts and collected a 5.92 ERA. Bullpen ace Isei Makino saw 13 starts, and registered a 6.19 ERA (while putting up a 1.90 ERA in 31 appearances as a reliever). Free Agent gunslinger Patrick Barraclough came in and threw a 6.55 ERA in two starts, Leith Geldart a 9.00 in one. Prospect Motiki Ando was given two stints with the team, and tossed a cool 6.00 in his seventeen starts. Veteran Yosuke Kono got five starts and blew a 6.20 on the ERA-o-meter.
Of all the pretenders, only Burt Johnson (5-5. 5.21 ERA) had his moments, registering 6 quality starts in 11 appearances, including a late-season complete game against Tempe. But he was a binary kind of guy, either on or off, and when he was off, the runs poured across the plate.
LOOKING TOWARD 2022
As the calendar turns to 2022, it appears that the front office has probably already done most, if not all, of the work it intends to do regarding the rotation. That work has been substantial, but most likely is still not enough. We’ll look at it below, taking it step-by-step:
Step 1: Release the Deadweight
First things
first, the team has improved by subtraction, allowing Koyoma, Barraclough, and Geldart to find employment elsewhere. Koyoma was a fine pitcher when the team played in the LRS, but he was getting older and his stuff wasn’t enough to fool PEBA hitters. At 34, he’s probably either done, or perhaps might find employ in a secondary league someplace. Barraclough and Geldart were hired hands brought in during the season, and never really gelled into anything resembling effective pitchers.
Step 2: Adjust the Straps
The team gave 25-year-old Isei Makino a month’s trial as the team’s closer last season, and he scored bigtime., registering 8 saves and being nearly untouchable. This gave the front office enough courage to deal stalwart closer Jo Kichida. There is no question, the Cliff Hangers would prefer to keep Makino out of the rotation, and intend to do so by this shift. This served to answer the question of how many new starters the team would need—two.
Step 3: Plug the Gaps
At various points in the early stages of free agency, the team was rumored to be pursuing several high-end names, Armando Gallegos, and Fate O’Manohan were the two most eye-catching names, but there were others. These contacts fell through, however—generally due to some combination of lack of funds and a general malaise about the team’s near-term future.
This meant the
front office had to go a different direction, and chose to jump heavily into the trade market, a process that peaked at the annual PEBA Winter Meetings. The Cliff Hangers used this time to acquire the contracts of stalwart ace Tadamasa “Six Pack” Hashimoto (from San Antonio), and 26-year-old, Korean-born Hyeon-cheong Yong (from Aurora).
Step 4: Release the Kraken!
There exists some disagreement or question as to how the veteran Hashimoto will fit into the mix, with the conversation ranging from him stepping into the #1 slot to the #3 slot. And Yong’s resume is long on promise, and considerably shorter on production. Nonetheless, it would appear that the gang the team has on hand now is that gang they will go to Spring Training with.
Our guess today is that the Cliff Hanger’s Opening Day rotation will be as follows:
#1 Shinobu Takeuchi:
Takeuchi packs a 98 MPH fastball and a slider that bends knees. After struggling with injury a few years back, he’s now put together a pair of healthy seasons, which is the good news. The bad news is that his 12-12 record last season was his career’s worst result, and was built behind an anemic offense and a porous defense.
He’s a veteran, however, and is settling into his role as the staff ace. Most scouts and league insiders have always considered him a quality PEBA hurler. At 26-years-old, he’s got a contract with as many as four more seasons on it and with the exception of an injury-marred 2019, he has been the organization’s go-to ace for the past five seasons.
We wouldn’t expect that to change now.
His brief stint with Neo-Tokyo aside, Tadamasa Hashimoto has been a winner.
He won in Seoul, and he won in San Antonio. Lupin is betting he’ll win in Toyama. He brings four major league pitches to the Castle, and the ability to control the opposition running game (a hidden stat, here, but Lupin’s stolen base defense was pitiful in 2022).
“We like that he can find the plate,” said GM Ron Collins in a press-release made after his acquisition from the Calzones. Hashimito has shown he can do that. We don’t think he can hold down the #1 spot in the rotation, but as a #2 guy he might be fine. Or, maybe not.
We’re guessing, however, that the world will soon find out.
#3 Akira Watanabe:
Watanabe is 26 years old, and already a 5-year veteran. His return from injury to pitch his team to victory in the last-ever Neo-Tokyo Cup has pretty much guaranteed that he’ll never again have to pay for a drink in Toyama. His fastball, curve, cutter repertoire is enough to make hitters weep.
Unfortunately, he’s also been streaky and a little injury prone the past couple seasons. Once a beastly strikeout guy, now Watanabe plays on the corners and relies as much on his defense as he does his heater. With Hashimoto’s arrival, the best guess is that he’ll settle into the #3 slot in the rotation, which should suit him fine.
We note, however, that some in the organization clearly suggest that Watanabe be placed in the #2 slot over Hashimoto. None of this seems to bother the unflappable Lupin hero.
“I love it here,” Watanabe said. “I just want to be able to get back out to the mound and pitch.”
Nishiyama is a pro’s pro. At thirty-three, his hands have been around the clock a few times. His 83-93 career record is a bit misleading, coming more as a result of playing on a lot of bad teams early in his career (he’s 36-28 in Lupin’s last three seasons, including a respectable 6-7 before being injured last year). Nishiyama keeps the ball on the ground and he eats innings, both things the staff desperately needed last season, and both things they desperately missed when he was lost to his finger injury.
The truth is, though, he was probably over-matched as a #3 in the PEBA. His fastball was never blazing, and as the clock keeps ticking, that will do nothing but become more and more true.
The club thinks he should be fine as a #4, and assuming he isn’t hampered with the injury, they’re probably right.
Yong was the poster-boy for expectation in the Aurora franchise. He carries three brilliant pitches, but can get in trouble because he likes to go to a change-up that is barely able to get little leaguers out. “We need to get him to stop thinking so much and just throw the heater,” said one of the team’s scouts.
That sounds good in principal, but if it were that simple one would think that Aurora’s staff would have been able to manage it.
Facts are fact, though. Hyeon-cheong Yong has been a bull in the China shop at the AAA level for several years now. He’s a lefty with a fastball that’s bigger than life–and those guys are as rare as intelligent politicians. Lupin’s coaching crew has made it clear that they intend to hand him the ball at the back end of the rotation and see what happens.
2022 is clearly his season to find out if his ultra-quick blaster, and those deep-biting breaking balls are everything they’re cracked up to be.
Step 5: Release the Second Kraken!
The two wild cards in the mix are the aforementioned Burt Johnson, who showed flashes of brilliance last season, and newcomer François Gosselin (acquired in this year’s Rule 5 Draft).
Johnson is an enigma, one of those guys who’s always hidden in plain sight. He was drafted as an 18 year-old out of high school in the 8th round by the Aurora franchise. As many high schoolers do, he struggled for a couple seasons, but managed to stick with the organization. Then, at age 21, things started to come together for him, and Johnson posted successively stronger numbers in successively tougher levels of baseball. It was not enough to crack the elite Aurora staff, however, and he became a free agent last off-season only to find no takers until Lupin’s offer came in.
“He’s a four-pitch guy with good stamina,” said pitching coach Sadakuno Kouki. “We like him a lot. He needs to learn how to stay with a game, though. His mind has a tendency to get caught up in what has already happened rather than focus on the now.”
The team has Johnson working with a meditation specialist in the off-season, but at present one expects he’ll start the season in Yamauchi and be the first pitcher called up in case of injury or other need.
The team is miles-high on Gosselin, and is clearly the organizations newest and shiniest play toy. Gosselin is projected to start the season in the bullpen, but is currently in Winter Ball learning a third pitch. Early projections are that his curveball looks to be major-league quality (a team insider said it wasn’t’ quite a 12-6 kind of bender, but that a 2-7 would work just fine for him. If Gosselin can come up with that mysterious third pitch to go with his 99 MPH fastball and a changeup that’s already been making minor league hitters cringe, he could well see a few starts over the season.
