Springs Hope Eternal For Evolving Borealis
by Ray D. Enze, NLN baseball blogger

 April 1, 2017: Aurora, Colorado – Monday’s season opener marks the start of the 7^th season for Aurora under the tutelage of GM Will Topham. During the previous six seasons Aurora has posted a 681-291 (.700) record. During that same time frame Aurora’s post-season record stands at 23-31 with two loses in the PEC (The Rodríguez Era, from 2007-2010, saw Aurora go 444-204, .685 with a 17-13 playoff mark and Aurora’s lone title). During this period of time the ‘Boy Wonder’ GM has not sat on his hands and let this ship sail on it’s own. He has wheeled and dealed – moved old star, moved young star, brought in young arms and draft picks – almost from his first day on the job. To this point Aurora has scored, scored, and scored some more and has had pitching staffs that have been at or near the top of the Sovereign League. Yet Aurora has failed to win that second championship. As a matter of fact, they are 2-6 in the past two division series (losing to Omaha and Crystal Lake) after their embarrassing 4-game sweep to Charleston in the 2014 PEC.
 
Why, you may ask, do I bring this up? Well, take a look at your 2017 Aurora Borealis. Gone are John Knight and Wilson Berry. Adios Quiñones and ‘Ice Cold’. Kojima, Thompson, and ‘Pep’? Outta Here! This year’s squad features two – Two players who were on the 2010 squad (Rodríguez’ last season) – Steve McDonald and José Rivera, and only ‘Old’ McDonald remains from the 2009 title squad. Six members of this year’s Opening Day team were Topham draftees (Jim Dyke, ‘Stork’ Holbrook, ‘Sleepy’ Kuhn, ‘Gypsy’ Foster, ‘El Bebé’ López, and Ronald McCall). Four came in trades (‘Sawmill’ Francisco, Anastasio López, ‘Quagmire’ Lewis and Luis Rodríguez). Two were signed as free-agent (Mike Britt and ‘Porker’ Thompson). That’s half the squad developed under the watchful eye of a youthful GM who has shown moments of shrewd acumen, daring, callowness, and impulsive temper. Sure, eleven of the remaining thirteen are Rodríguez acquisitions, but the decisions to hold these players or move them falls square on the young GM’s shoulders.

Next season, barring some incredible unexpected shuffling, only Rivera is expected to be left (good-bye Stevie Mac). Yep, I think we can kiss the Rodríguez years good-bye at long last. Fans, now we find out if this kid knew what he was doing or if he had his head… well… you know what I mean.

So Fans, lets look at this years squad, the changes that have occurred and what the future holds – not just for 2017, but beyond. Let’s hope that the promising spring record is an indication of things to come.

Starters (in expected rotational spots)
Darryl ‘Quagmire’ Lewis, Anastasio López, Martín ‘Sawmill’ Francisco, Bill ‘Slappy’ Bradley, Franky Chávez.
 
No area on the team has Topham worked harder on than the rotation. Francisco and Lewis were acquired from Arlington and López from Manchester in an attempt to replace the loss – primarily to injury, of Roach, ‘Sugar Bear’ García and Kojima.
 
‘Sawmill’ had an excellent 2015 season for Aurora, garnering serious consideration for the Golden Arm award. Last year was a very uneven year for the 28 year-old, and this spring can not be considered an improvement. One might suggest that Aurora’s title hopes begin and end here. López was excellent in his first season on the Front Range and he was equally solid this spring. Exceptional would also describe ‘Quagmire’s first spring in Colorado. Like López last year, Lewis is coming off an injury that took most of his previous season. The Borealis will start Lewis and López back-to-back in hopes of having a dynamic righty-lefty combo at the top of the rotation. Injury is nothing new to Bill Bradley, but after a late spring 2015 return from a season ending injury in 2014, ‘Slappy’ was healthy for all of 2016 and found himself back leading the pack in strikeouts. Aurora has concerns about his overall control, but this spring he seemed to manage quite well despite some rough patches with his control. Joining ‘Sawmill’ in the ‘shaky spring club’ is Frankie Chávez, who struggled in 2015 much like ‘Sawmill’ did in 2016. Chávez bounced back last year and 2017 is going to be a very important year for the still young (27) left-hander.
 
2017 may be a very critical year for both Bradley and Chavez. ‘Slappy’ is working on the first year of an extension signed last year that pays him $8.5M this year with a team option for 2018 at $10.5M. For a team that’s strapped for cash, that’s a significant amount of cash for a pitcher who at best might end up being described as ‘effectively wild’. Chávez is working on year two of a four-year deal at a very team friendly $9.6M total for the remaining three years. Why might this be a critical year? Aurora has invested a lot in the top end of the rotation – Francisco is starting a new five-year, $42M deal and López is starting his own four-year $29M deal, both extensions signed during last season. Lewis is slated to make $6M this year and $7.5M next as part of a three-year deal signed in 2015. Should either Chávez or Bradley falter – or even be just average, they may be gone in a heartbeat as Aurora has two highly prized, and highly thought of, arms sitting at Thornton – Michael Provost (who has his own $28M guaranteed, two-year deal) and Edgardo Rojas. Provost already has shown he may be ready for primetime with his work this spring. All the scouts suggest it’s a matter of time before Rojas dominates the SL.

Bullpen
Aurora lost two mainstays in the ‘pen this offseason – Ángel Lara and Francisco Garza are gone, and the Borealis are left trying to piece together a ‘pen that at times last year was just too frustrating for words. Bryant Burris returns as the closer after a season in which he saved 45 and blew 6. Burris looked sharp this spring, 17 K in 13 IP and 5 saves, and Aurora is hopeful that he’ll continue that trend into the season. Also looking sharp was ‘Stork’ Holbrook who was the workhorse of the bullpen this spring, throwing 20 innings. He was struck with wild bouts of inconsistency last year – in part, perhaps, to the erratic work he’d get. Most experts expect to see ‘Stork’ closing games in the near future – likely the 2020 season after Burris’ new deal expires. Should Burris fail, Holbrook looks to be number one in line. Joining Holbrook in the set-up role is RH Jonathan Dyke. Dyke ‘won’ the job by being far more consistent than the incumbent Tony Gordon, who had a 6.97 ERA and an OAVG of .326. Dyke struck out 14 over 12 IP and walked only 1 – fewest on the team, while holding opponents to a .222 average. Dyke ruptured a ligament in his elbow mid-summer 2015 and did not return until late last summer, but despite some shaky numbers over 19 appearances, the 2012 31^st overall pick has impressed over the last few years and will get the first shot at the RH set-up roll. Gordon was not the only RH arm to blow a shot at a set-up roll, as Arnaud Thompson was equal to the task of ugly, allowing 13 runs this spring – five more than any other pitcher this spring, with his own near 7.00 ERA and a .318 OAVG. Also like Gordon, ‘Porker’ has been a fairly stable member of the bullpen over the past season and a half, so Aurora finds themselves hoping that they are examples of the old adage – ‘spring means diddly squat’. Thompson and Gordon (who signed a three-year, $9.3M deal during the offseason) certainly have to be feeling the pressure to preform and keep their job as perhaps the best pitcher this spring was AAA closer Terry Burns who gave up just 3 H in 7 IP and no runs. Burns has not pitched above AA yet, but last year he saved 41 for the Balloonists with a 1.40 ERA and a .207 OAVG. If not Gordon or Thompson, then he may be breathing down the neck of enigmatic Pat MacComie, who somehow manages to pitch decently enough despite having the least overpowering stuff on the staff – last year he held opponents to a .198 average and his WHIP was 0.99. His spring numbers are not too far off of that. Nolan ‘Sleepy’ Kuhn rounds out the bullpen staff after making his debut last year with a 0.71 WHIP and a .171 OAVG. Only a pair of HRs allowed in 11.1 IP marred the record for this former first round (#24 overall in 2014 – same spot Holbrook was taken in 2011). His spring numbers reflected the high hopes the management has for this young star as he held teams to a .175 average with 14 K in 11.2 spring innings. Manager Don James kidded that he was going to have two left-handed set-up men – ‘Stork’ and ‘Sleepy’. Laugh. You think he’s kidding?

Catchers
No surprises here. Bob Keller and Scott Vinson form the best 1-2 catcher combo in all of baseball. Poor Sergio López didn’t stand a chance this spring, getting only 7 AB – and 3 H and 2 RBI, virtually matching his numbers from his brief stint with the Big Club last year. Keller will be starting his fourth full year with Aurora and is there a better hitting catcher in the game today? Keller has hit 101 HR, driven in 190 and hit .313 – while sharing significant playing time with Berry (2014) and Vinson (2015-16). Life has to be rough for the 27 year-old Vinson, who saw a drop in his production last year and one has to believe that a player as talented as he is upset about his playing time. It’s no secret that many a GM has inquired about Scott, but Aurora has refrained – much as they did with Rod Johnson before finally moving him in the ‘Quagmire’ deal. Keller is under contract through the 2018 season, and he’ll turn 33 during that year, so it’s probable that Vinson will stay. Aurora has more than López waiting in the wings. Down on the farm is Rusty Butler – the catcher of the future as some have deemed him, and last year’s 10^th overall selection Miguel Angel Gálvez awaiting their turn, so Vinson may end up being expendable. That said, Don James may bring you the two-headed left-handed set-up man and he may bring you the three-headed catcher. He has, not so flippantly, suggested using Vinson and Keller as DHs, which would solve the trouble of ABs for Vinson. Stay tuned for this one. For the record, neither were very effective at the plate this spring, though Keller did drive in a team high 12 runs (he also struck out a team high 16 times).

Infield
Why wouldn’t James consider using a catcher in the DH role? Well, he has six solid hitters in the infield and two will sit otherwise. The one given? José Rivera will start at short. A second? Steve McDonald’s bat will be in the line-up – his .235 spring average be damned. Orlando López was equally bad this spring (.234), but the career .322 hitter (since relieving Mark Richardson of his line-up spot) has to be on any line-up card until proven he ain’t going to hit. Oh… and what of John Foster and Mike Britt? Scouts across the land tab them as Aurora’s Mantle and Maris (for those of you who are old enough to remember those olden days of MLB). Foster hit .300 this spring with a .600 SLG, suggesting the promise he showed last year wasn’t a mirage, while Britt hit .250 and continues to look a little green. One might argue that Britt could use a little more time at AAA, but Head Scout Joe Horn assures the coaching staff that Britt has ‘nothing more to prove down there’. The forgotten man? The guy who hit .350 in 2013 and should have won the Royal Raker that year (in my humblest of opinions…): Al Edwards. Edwards struggled this spring and Aurora is concerned about the slide in his average over the past three seasons, culminating in last years .267 with a horrendous drop in power. Britt has played mostly 3B and SS in the minors, but James plans on starting him at 1B in Edwards place, starting Foster at 2B and McDonald at DH. “That may not be our best defensive alignment,” James said “but Steve is getting older and he had a couple of late season injuries that dragged him down. If we can keep him fresher, he should continue to perform at a high level.” I shall mention the obvious point here: Play Foster at 2B. It’s his spot for the foreseeable future with McDonald in his lame-duck season in Aurora. One player to keep an eye on for the future, should someone go down, is AAA SS Nick Giles, who had a lovely spring in his first invite to join the Big Club. Giles hit .375 with a .457 OBP and 1.007 OPS. He looked great in the field to boot! Giles was the 38^th over all selection in the 2014 draft and I fully expect him to be with Aurora next season – if not sooner. Do you hear me Al Edwards?

Outfield
For now, this is the most unsettled spot on the team. They are comprised of a two-time Royal Raker (Cory Pierce), two vets who’ve arguably under-achieved (Michael Burton and Brad Cain) and two newcomers (Ronald McCall and Luis Rodríguez). Pierce is working on the last year of a three-year deal, but recently signed a two-year, $20M extension that will take him through 2019. The last time Pierce signed an extension he won his second RR. The deal is looked to be somewhat risky and out of character for Aurora as Pierce turned 31 at the start of spring training. Not only that, but the past two seasons have seen a significant drop in his average, and last year in power. Still, without Pierce, Aurora’s outfield would quite possibly be the weakest in the league – and two years ago they had maybe the best! Cory hit .270 this spring, but more disconcerting was his 14 K in 70 AB. Michael Burton had one of the most god-awful starts to a season in the history of baseball last year – and yet he dug himself out of that hole far enough to hit .279 with 13 HR and 49 RBI. That, and a .312 spring average, will earn him a spot on the bench as one of the reserves. Brad Cain, on the other hand, had a rough spring, hitting only .207 and as a result has, for the start of the season at least, lost some playing time to the hot player out of spring training. Ronald McCall hit .333 with a decent enough .467 SLG for a guy with no real power (kind of sad for a guy who stands 6’3” and weighs 215). Ronald kind of blossomed the past two seasons – hitting .315 at a combined A-AA-AAA placement and as a result, got the invite to spring training with a shot at the fifth outfield spot (with Pierce, Cain, Burton and newly acquired Luis Rodríguez holding down the other four spots). McCall out hit expected fifth OF Kane Talley and coupled with Cain’s poor performance, has earned the starting nod v. right-handers in a season opening platoon in RF. Center will belong to, for now, Rodríguez. The skinny, fleet Texas native has yet to prove he can do much with pitching above AA, but Aurora found themselves in what they considered a dangerous defensive position with no clear major league CF should Cain go down – and with his history of ailments… Luis hit .238 this spring and Aurora plans on running him out there daily, for now, until it becomes apparent he can’t do the job. “We’re not expecting the world from him, but if he plays good D, can get on base a quarter of the time and swipe some bases… we just might be good with that.” said Don James. I’m not so sure about that last part of his statement. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Aurora make a move before summer if he shows he can’t handle the bat up here at the PEBA level. Aurora’s best CF prospect is last years #1 pick Mathew Ferrell, but he’s still a ways away. This years outfield group may not be the strongest, but the Borealis made the outfield a priority in the past two drafts and by the 2019 season we should begin to see the likes of Ferrell, River Pope, Javier Sepúlveda and Artie Thompson making waves on the Front Range.

Opening Day is upon us fans, and with it a date with Markus Hancock and the rival, defending champion Bakersfield Bears. James has already gone on record with this line-up to begin the year: McDonald DH, López 3B, Foster 2B, Keller C, Pierce LF, Britt 1B, Rivera SS, McCall RF, Rodríguez CF. Aurora has had success against ‘Fireworks’ so an Opening Day win is well within the cards.

As I see it folks, these are the questions that will make or break Aurora’s season: First off, will the starting rotation stay healthy. If so, they have the potential to match-up with any staff in the league. The operative word being potential. Secondly, will Foster and Britt break-out and meet their gaudy expectations. I’ll go out on a limb and suggest a combined .310 with 50 HR and 200 RBI are going to be needed if they are to repeat as Desert Hills champs. Lastly, will anyone in the OF hit besides Pierce. I really view this as the teams Achilles Heel, and I would be shocked if there isn’t a deal made before the deadline to shore up this part of the line-up. That said, I think this Aurora squad has the potential to win the division and threaten for the Sovereign League crown once again. Where will we be come game 162 on October 1^st, where Aurora will end the season in the same spot they begin it – out in California’s Central Valley? Come along, let’s find out!