The Most Valuable PEBA Players – 2016 Edition
Monday, April 4, 2016
Welcome to the third annual edition of this player rankings article. Two years ago, “The Most Valuable PEBA Players” was published in these pages for the first time and it fired up much chatter. So here we are again, ready to stoke some controversy that won’t be settled until next October at the earliest.
The list this year was a particular challenge. Many of these players could be moved up or down based on [reference for one type of player over another. In addition, a lot of players who ranked highly last year didn’t maintain their pace. As usual, injuries play a prominent role in the final placement.
Reread the original article for a lengthier description of the methodology, but the short of it is this: More often than not, a higher-ranked player would not be traded 1-for-1 for a lower-ranked player. Each player’s ability, contract, and age are taken into account, but actual performance is weighed the most. You won’t see prospects who’ve only had one good PEBA season ranked too highly. Each of the top 25 players have been ranked and commented upon. The remainder of the top 50 will also be presented, albeit with a little less information. The age listed for each player is their age as of July 1st. Previous rankings are listed in reverse chronological order (e.g. Prev: 2015 rank, 2014 rank).
The List
25. 1B Narahiko Imada (OMA) – 31 – Imada’s agent clearly hasn’t spent enough time selling us on him, because we never rank him too highly. Last year, he was up to 15th, which is quite good, but he dropped back down again. Imada wasn’t quite as good in 2015, but he’s consistently been among the league’s more feared hitters. It’ll be interesting to see how Imada responds to offseason trade rumors that eventually led nowhere. Apparently, GMs don’t quite get how good he is either. (DOWN – Prev: 15, Top 50)
24. SP Martín Francisco (AUR) – 27 – Francisco showed signs of brilliance with Arlington, but he really impressed in his first full season in Aurora’s rotation. He finished the season second in wins and ERA, and first in H/9IP and quality starts. The Borealis have always been known for top-of-the-line pitchers, and Francisco was their best last year. (UP – Prev: NR)
23. 1B Dean Bailey (NJ) – 27 – Bailey’s style of play is heavily based on batting average, but he hits the ball as hard as anyone, and that results in power. Among players with 2,000 career PA, Bailey’s .389 BABIP ranks 1st. Interestingly, the man he was traded for, Denny Parkinson, is second at .379. Bailey was second in extra base hits in 2015 with 81, but it was split between Tempe and New Jersey. Scouts will watch his bat speed for signs of slowing down, as pitchers have struggled to throw a ball anywhere near the plate that this aggressive swinger can’t hit. (UP – Prev: NR)
22. SP Bryant Duncan (NJ) – 29 – Now fully transitioned to the rotation, Duncan is a legitimate ace on a pennant contender. He has relied on a devastating fastball that he throws with full effort. There’s no guessing with Duncan; he’s going to challenge you. The slight drop on his fastball keeps the ball on the ground, and his slider is nearly as good. As long as he has those two pitches working for him, he should earn the four-year extension he signed last November. (UP – Prev: NR)
21. SP Chris York (FLA) – 26 – The Featherheads have managed to get tremendous results out of York when he’s been healthy, and 2015 was the year he lived up to his full potential. He was 3rd in the IL with a 2.49 ERA and .99 WHIP, while his 10.40 K/9IP led the league. The injuries allowed the team to lock him up inexpensively, and many believe it’ll pay off in a big way. (UP – Prev: NR)
20. SS Ken Keddy (FAR) – 25 – After a tremendous 2014, Keddy’s rate stats all dropped back to 2013 levels. A quick glance shows that a key difference was his BABIP. His home run rate was down and he didn’t walk quite as much either. In all, it was a disappointing turn for a player at an age when he’s expected to continue the improvement he showed at 23. One wonders if 2014 was the aberration and 2013/2015 is his true talent level, but he’s young enough that he might surprise. Ultimately, Dinosaur fans have either a very good player or a superstar, and while you’d want the latter, the former isn’t a bad tradeoff. (UP – Prev: 21)
19. 2B Steve McDonald (AUR) – 29 – The new career hits leader returned to the All-Star team for the 4th time and won his first All-Leather award for his play at second base. He’s also the career runs scored and triples leader, and ranks second in career doubles after his 8th-consecutive 40-double season. The Borealis kept him around with a two-year extension that has him as the 3rd-highest-paid player in the game. He’d be in the top 10 with a far more normal contract, but that’s a very hefty salary and only a few teams in the league could afford him at that price. (DOWN – Prev: 12, 16)
18. 3B Ralph Gunther (OMA) – 29 – Probably the biggest surprise on this list. Gunther had long been a popular candidate for a breakout, and he finally had one in 2014. He wasn’t as good last year, but his ability to drive the ball was once again on display. He finished 2nd in the SL in extra base hits, including 32 home runs. The real difference between the two seasons was a drop in BABIP. The question will be which type of season he is going to have more regularly. He’s on an incredibly team-friendly contract for the next three years. Trivia note: Gunther has played in exactly 156 games each of the past four seasons. (UP – Prev: NR)
17. SP Dean O’Monahan (CST) – 32 – “Fate” bounced back with a big season. He posted a 2.97 ERA and 0.96 WHIP but didn’t get the wins he has in the past, going just 14-9. Still, he threw 224 1/3rd innings, which is right in line with what he’s done throughout his career. One of these seasons, you might bet against Fate, but don’t do it this year. (DOWN – Prev: 13, 5)
16. 1B Sok-man Yi (CL) – 31 – Yi rebounded to once again lead the league in walks and record his 4th triple century season with 100+ runs, RBI, and walks. The classic DH, Yi’s knees keep him about as mobile as a rock, which resulted in two rather entertaining stolen base attempts this past year. He’s due for a big raise whether or not the Sandgnats allow him to venture into free agency. (UP – Prev: 23, 13)
15. DH Carlos Guerera (BAK) – 30 – He missed six weeks near the start of the season and still posted a 73 VORP. From a rate standpoint, it was his most dominant season, but from a games played standpoint, he was out more than he’s ever been. He’s got two moderately expensive years left on his contract, but if he hits as he had to this point, he’ll easily be worth it. (UP – Prev: Top 50, Top 50)
14. 1B Ronald Harmon (WV) – 29 – Despite the fact that the Alleghenies offense ranked 10th in the IL and 19th in the PEBA, Harmon led the IL in RBI with 114. He didn’t hit for quite as high an average as in 2014, but his home run rate was up slightly. Harmon has two arbitration years to go and will play this year at a very team-friendly salary. Harmon edges Guerera on contract status and durability. (UP – Prev: 20, NR)
13. LF Cory Pierce (AUR) – 30 – The Borealis played careful with Pierce in an effort to keep him healthy, and it almost worked. He played in a career-high 132 games. However, the reigning SL Royal Raker couldn’t maintain his historically high batting average. The result was a season that wasn’t at the level of Pierce’s previous three. His .364 OBP was a big drop from three straight .410+ OBP years. Looking a bit deeper into the numbers, though, the one that pops out is Pierce’s .333 BABIP, which was quite a bit lower than he’s traditionally posted. Whether that’s a new trend for him or a blip will determine if Pierce is once again a Royal Raker contender or merely very good. (DOWN – Prev: 6, 9)
12. SP Armando Gallegos (FAR) – 32 – The good news for Gallegos was brief but impressive. He was undefeated, sported a 2.84 ERA, and had a tremendous 7.44 K/BB ratio. The bad news is that he earned five wins in just 11 starts, as he was forced to have surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. Prior to the injury, Gallegos had established himself as the pitcher in closest striking distance of the league’s most dominant starters. Now he’s back and looking to establish himself again. A lot of eyes are on Gallegos this spring. Fargo really needs Gallegos to return to his old self if they want to make a title run, but from a financial perspective, they’ve got so little invested in him that they can get good value even if he’s only league-average. However, that’ll be small comfort to the team if they watch the postseason from their couches again. (DOWN – Prev: 5, 7)
11. SP Manuel Corona (GLO) – 26 – Corona had a spectacular year despite his 14-11 record and was rewarded with the IL Golden Arm for the second consecutive year. He topped it off by no-hitting the Bureaucrats in the first game of the postseason. After suffering a torn elbow ligament in his second postseason start, Corona was cruelly forced to watch from the bench as his team win it all. He’s the first player to be ranked on this list while still early in a significant injury rehab, but given Corona’s age, contract, and track record, he’s still a very valuable commodity until he proves otherwise. If healthy, he may have even been ranked #1. (DOWN – Prev: 2, 4)
10. LF Eduardo Molina (CL) – 32 – Molina had another great season and was a major contender in SL Royal Raker voting, but ultimately fell just short again. He led the SL in hits and RBI for the second straight year. Molina is one of just two players with six consecutive 30 HR seasons, the other being Tsumemasa Morimoto, who has nine and counting. (DOWN – Prev: 9, Top 50)
9. SP Félix Ortega (ARL) – 26 – Ortega was an All-Star for the second consecutive season and went 15-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 32 starts. He’s signed at a very reasonable rate for the next two seasons and he’s shown no signs of struggling. Over the past four years, Ortega has posted a VORP between 43.8 and 47.2, a remarkable pattern of consistency and success. During this time his ERA has never been higher than 3.18. Ortega was particularly adept at keeping the ball in the park, posting an IL-best 0.45 HR/9 IP. (UP – Prev: 16, 17)
8. C Bob Keller (AUR) – 29 – Keller led the SL in home runs despite playing in 38 fewer games than the runner-up and eventual SL Royal Raker winner. He never flashed this much power in the minors, which is why it took him until he was 27 to get a shot at regular playing time. The one aspect of Keller’s game that disappoints is his plate discipline, but he hits plenty to make him extremely valuable at a key defensive position. Keller has a reasonable contract and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him collect on his Royal Raker bonus one of these years. (UP – Prev: Top 50)
7. RF Ricardo Longoria (CL) – 27 – It’s true that the 2015 SL Royal Raker has never been ranked in the top 50 before, but here he is. Longoria was far from unanimous in his selection, but he’s a worthy candidate. That said, the Sandgnats paid a pretty good price to buy out his arbitration years. Even so, a second year like the last one might move Longoria up this list, and some expect him to deliver. (UP – Prev: NR)
6. SP Francisco Robles (CL) – 25 – Robles wasn’t quite as good as in 2014 but played for a better team and wound up winning 19 games. He threw over 200 innings for the 3rd consecutive season. Should he maintain his durability, Robles will rack up wins again with the potent Gnats offense behind him. (UP – Prev: 8)
Players Ranked 26-50, In Alphabetical Order
Before we finish out the list with the top 25, here are the next 25! These are the players that for one reason or another – perhaps an injury, high salary, age, or simply the depth of quality players in the league – aren’t quite top 25 worthy. These players are listed alphabetically, so you’re welcome to place them in whatever order you like. Some up-and-coming stars didn’t quite make this list, but you will see a few younger players here that don’t yet have the track record to crack the top 25. Perhaps the real debate is over the players not listed at all.
LF Chris Allen (FAR) – 29 – Allen returned to form with a season that wasn’t too far below his spectacular 2013. He earned his first All-Star appearance but still hasn’t played 140 games in a season. (NC – Prev: Top 50, Top 50)
SP Michael Ayers (WV) – 27 – The Allegheny Ace doesn’t have quite as good peripherals as one would expect based on his reputation. Don’t expect 2016 to be quite as good, but he’s still a guy teams would love to have in their rotation. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Dave Barker (DUL) – 27 – Barker’s one of the better young starters in the game, with a superb strikeout to walk ratio. His propensity to give up the long ball is what’s holding him back from becoming a real ace. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Bill Bradley (AUR) – 28 – While he didn’t qualify for the ERA title, Bradley’s 11.22 K/9IP was the highest among pitchers with 100 IP and second highest among pitchers with 50 IP. He posted a solid ERA and 11-4 record and could be poised for a big year if he’s healthy. (NC – Prev: Top 50, 11)
CL Bryant Burris (AUR) – 28 – Burris gets the nod as the top reliever. He led the SL with 43 saves and posted a 1.27 ERA and .88 WHIP. (UP – Prev: NR)
C Jason Corbett (OMA) – 27 – Corbett’s been a jewel in the Cyclones’ minor league system for some time and finally busted out with a Royal Raker-contending season after a difficult rookie campaign. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP José Cruz (DUL) – 35 – Cruz’s 20-2 record was tops in wins and win percentage, and he was in the top 10 in just about every rate stat imaginable. The Warriors spent good money to bring him in and are banking on a big return. (NC – Prev: Top 50)
RF Jason Guillén (ARL) – 28 – Guillén missed the All-Star team for the first time in his career but went on to lead the IL with 43 home runs. A lesser Jason has experienced an eerily similar career path, although his peak was quite a bit lower. (DOWN – Prev: 25, 15)
3B Corbin Hickman (FLA) – 26 – Hickman took a step back from his rookie campaign but was still very productive. He’s young enough to maintain high expectations. (NC – Prev: Top 50)
RF John Knight (DUL) – 31 – Knight missed even more time than 2014, but he was more productive while playing. The Warriors need him to play at the level that earned him 2013 Royal Raker honors. (NC – Prev: Top 50, 22)
SP Darryl Lewis (ARL) – 27 – Lewis had a healthy year and reached the potential that made him the #15 prospect in baseball. He ranked 4th in both ERA and WHIP in the IL. (UP – Prev: NR)
1B José Martínez (CAN) – 26 – Martínez’s rookie campaign didn’t disappoint. The slugging first baseman won SL Wunderkind honors after hitting 34 homers in 139 games. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Conan McCullough (CST) – 34 – Scouts think he might be starting to lose something, but he’s still very good. How many starts the Statesmen get out of him is a big question. (NC – Prev: Top 50, Top 50)
LF Yoshino Miyata (FAR) – 34 – Miyata’s contract is unmovable, but he led the SL in walks and OBP during his first year in Fargo. (NC – Prev: Top 50, Top 50)
RF Frank Murphy (CST) – 27 – Murphy has been a superstar when he’s in the lineup; he just hasn’t been able to stay in the lineup. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Hiroyuki Nii (LON) – 27 – The 2014 Wunderkind wasn’t quite as good but still made the All-Star team and finished 2nd in the IL with 16 wins. He also led the league with 13 wild pitches. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Cipriano Peña (LON) – 28 – He may not be quite as well known as Nii, but Peña has had more success to this point. He’s led the IL in innings pitched three of the past four seasons. (UP – Prev: NR)
1B William Peterson (KEN) – 28 – Kentucky’s best hitter is coming off his second consecutive All-Star season, one in which he returned to the 30 HR/100 RBI club. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Adrián Reséndez (GLO) – 30 – Connecticut’s former ace is now tasked with the Herculean effort of replacing Corona in the Fishermen rotation. His 2.83 ERA was a career best, but his other peripherals weren’t too far off his career norms, which have been remarkably consistent. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Roberto Rodríguez (PS) – 29 –After a great 2014, he oddly got a lot worse at key aspects of his game. A return to form would likely have him back in the top 25. (DOWN – Prev: 10)
3B Mario Tessier (NJ) – 26 – One of several promising young third basemen, Tessier made up for a dip in power and walks by hitting for a better average. (UP – Prev: NR)
SP Artie Tillman (MAN) – 31 – Tillman’s 18-3 record with a 3.37 ERA earned him a trade to Manchester as Aurora gave their young pitchers the reins. They may live to regret it. (NC – Prev: Top 50)
SS Alfredo Vega (BAK) – 29 – As with many players on this list, he’d be in the top 25 if he could just stay healthy for a season. Vega is the only shortstop in the top 50. (UP – Prev: NR)
1B Decheng Wen (LON) – 28 – Now in his final pre-arbitration year, Wen is looking to continue a trend of improvement that could put him among the league’s elite. He’s the only first baseman to ever post a 30 HR, 20 SB season. (UP – Prev: NR)
CF Jay White (CL) – 27 – Centerfield seems to be a position filled with constant disappointment. The top players either can’t stay healthy or struggle to maintain their play for any length of time. White is vying to buck the trend, and he should score a ton of runs in the Sandgnats lineup. (UP – Prev: NR)
And now…
The Top 5
5. 2B Rafael Suárez (WV) – 29 – Suárez proved that his 2014 season was no fluke, leading the IL with 45 doubles and 101 runs scored and earning himself a nice $43 million extension. He’s the most valuable piece of West Virginia’s trio of stars giving Alleghenies fans hope every spring. (UP – Prev: 17)
4. 3B Ronald Lowry (CON) – 28 – Lowry and Suárez are pretty easy to flip. From a performance perspective, they’ve been awfully similar hitters over the past two seasons. Both were All-Leather runners-up at their positions. Lowry gets the slight edge because he’s a year younger than Suárez and has a more team-friendly contract. For much of the season, it looked like Lowry would have a shot at taking the Royal Raker in a bit of an upset. In the end, he had to settle for a solid second place. He also set a Nutmeggers record by hitting 38 home runs. (UP – Prev: 7, 10)
3. DH Luis Torres (FLA) – 26 –Torres led the league in runs scored and slugging percentage and had his third-straight season with 40 home runs, but he missed the All-Star Game for the second straight year. Once again, Torres had a slow first half, hitting under .240 through April and May. He surged in June, but it wasn’t until August that his power really took off. He was a big reason why the Featherheads were down in the standings in the first half, and a big reason why they finished the year in 2nd place, too. In the end, everyone would love to have a player put up Torres’s numbers. (UP – Prev: 4, 3)
2. DH Rob Raines (ARL) – 30 – Raines was having a bit of a down season by his lofty standards through August, but he really turned it on in September (belting 11 home runs that month) to settle any doubt as to whether or not he’d take home Royal Raker honors again. This was his 3rd straight Royal Raker season. Raines accomplished one feat he never had before: winning the IL batting title. He continues to be in a class of his own with the bat. (UP – Prev: 3, 2)
1. SP Markus Hancock (BAK) – 30 – The 22-year-old phenom of the 2008 draft is turning 30 this year! He was one of the most dominant players in the PEBA, but his numbers were actually down a bit. Hancock’s 17 wins were his fewest in six seasons, and his 0.97 WHIP was the highest in the past four, resulting in a 170 ERA+ that was his worst since the stat has been tracked. All those numbers are impressive and he’s a worthy #1, but one should realize that he retains the top spot due to Corona’s injury. (NC – Prev: 1, 1)
Samuel Platt covers the Nutmeggers for the Connecticut Post