Saturday, April 11, 2015

The results of a long off-season are in and the decision is unanimous. LRS insiders agree that hitters in the Shining Star Group are going to have a particularly tough time of it come 2015. The SSG, despite being a league using the designated hitter, has traditionally been pitching-heavy, but 2014 saw an influx of offense that raised the league’s batting average from .258 to .271 and ERA from 3.64 to 4.20. General managers were apparently having none of that this year, though. The pitching staffs of all six teams in the group have been bolstered by trades, free agent signings, and the arrival of youth. “Usually you see hitters look at the calendar to find the day the opposing ace is pitching in order to plan when they might get one of those 24-hour flu bugs,” said Shin Seiki pitching coach José Rodríguez. “But if they’re going to do that this year, they probably need to ask to be optioned to AAA because it’s going to be hard to find a good day to take off.”

Don’t believe us? Okay, let’s peel this onion one layer at a time, starting with the #1 guy in each rotation and rolling the skin right on back. How, you might ask, will we determine each team’s rotation? Spring training has just begun. Well, we’ll tell you how. We’re going to go straight to the source and use the roster each team submitted to the League Office at the start of spring training. Sure, a few things could change – and they will. Some will get hurt, or lose effectiveness, or a kid will reach up and demand to pitched. Such is life in big-time baseball.

Us sports journalists live on the edge of life, but deadlines must be met and stories submitted, so this is how we’re doing it. We’ll begin at the beginning, looking at the top layer of each rotation. Bottom line: One of these six guys is almost certainly going to win the 2015 SSG Sawamura Award, but it’s truly a six-horse race and our best guess is that it’s going to be a photo finish.

Rankings are roughly best to worst to our discerning eye.

Aces

Shin Seiki: Shunsuke “Cookie” Takayama (LHP, 33 years old) – Cookie is a class-A stud among the Shin Seiki stable of studs. He knows the LRS like the back of his hand and he pitches to hitters as if he controls their thoughts. His career 97-58 record stands on its own, and his 1,323 strikeouts are #3 on the all-time LRS leaderboard behind teammate Toshikasu Tanaka and Koto Sekuguchi (who he’ll rapidly pass, given that Sekuguchi signed with a team in the U.S. last off-season).

Neo-Tokyo: Takiji “Bad News” Shiskikura (LHP, 26 years old) – Bad News hasn’t even hit his peak, yet he’s already won 33 LRS games and sits as the Akira’s reining ace. Not surprising; a career ERA of 2.58 will do that for a guy. Shiskikura throws five big-league pitches and keeps the ball on the ground. Hitters only managed a homer off him every other game or so.

Hyakuuju: Tetsuo Okazaki (LHP, 33 years old) – Okazaki has left hitters flailing all around the world. He comes to Hyakuuju after signing a mega-yen deal that will keep him with the team for three seasons. He’s coming off three seasons in the U.S. where he registered a 46-26 record while averaging 204 IP and about 160 strikeouts a season. His K/BB ratio was nearly 5.00.

Kure: Alberto Semblano (LHP, 36 years old) – Semblano’s career started at age 28 and has seen him register an 88-61 career record, complete with 1,175 strikeouts. His 3.45 career ERA is water-logged by his 5.10 ERA season in 2011 and a 4.88 ERA last season (both injury-shortened). Take those two seasons away and that ERA drops to 3.25. Scary, eh? At 36, he still throws 90 MPH, and he still has that biting slider and a trunk-load of changeups.

Kawaguchi: Yoshisada Rin (RHP, 37 years old) – Like Semblano, Rin has the disadvantage of a questionable medical record, but if he stays healthy, Rin will shut down offenses on a routine basis. His career record of 90-55 is rock-solid. Having been on a Neo-Tokyo Cup-winning Battleships squad and a PEBA Rodriguez Cup with the Arlington franchise, the man knows what makes a team win.

Niihama-shi: Yasukazu Takahashi (RHP, 30 years old) – Though Takahashi is probably the weakest of the group’s aces, he’s still tough to hit. Realizing that his season could be named “Waiting for Hobo” for the Ghosts, one can still appreciate how good Takahashi could be. He gets guys out on guile and instinct, giving up less than a hit an inning and maintaining a K/BB ratio of 2.36.

SUMMARY: It’s not unusual for the talent in a group to be distributed such that not every team has a serious #1. While you might argue Niihama-shi’s Takashi is the odd man out here, even he is probably a reasonable #1 in most years and would be in the mix for such an assignment in the other group. The SSG’s aces are loaded.

Number Two

Shin Seiki: Toshikasu “+7 Vorpal” Tanaka (RHP, 33 years old) – Listed as a #2 only because he’s second on the Shin Seiki spring training list. The man’s changeup is enough to bring tears. When paired with a fastball that still touches 92 MPH, it’s almost too much to bear. Mothers, don’t let your children grow up to be hitters when +7 is on the hill. Career record: 115-61. Top strikeout artist in league history. Career ERA: 3.18. This is not a #2.

Kure: Akihito “Snake Hips” Ichihara (RHP, 29 years old) – If he stays healthy, the odds are that Snake Hips is going to eventually own the record for most strikeouts in a LRS career. The man throws a 95 MPH heater that seems to disappear when it hits the afterburners. His 2011-2013 seasons (ERAs of 2.71, 2.08, 2.02) are among the best three-season stints in league history. Ichihara does have an injury history to deal with, though, but he’ll probably be aided by Semblano’s arrival taking some of the heat of attention away from him. This is a pretty sick #2.

Neo-Tokyo: Hirotada Suzuki (RHP, 28 years old) – Suzuki comes complete with the old-school fastball, slider, changeup repertoire, each pitch good enough to get guys out on its own merit. He would probably be the #1 guy in the rotation except that his 2014 performance (7-7, 4.09 ERA) shows that he is human, and it’s awfully hard to beat out Bad News Shiskikura. With the two of them in their mid-20s, look for Neo-Tokyo to ride them for the next several seasons.

Hyakuuju: Carlos “Chopper” Camacho (RHP, 30 years old) – We think he gets his name because hitters wind up just chopping at the junk he throws. Not that the Nicaraguan can’t throw hard. He can; 92 MPH hard when you clock it. But Camacho throws sinkers, sliders, curves, splitters, and then – only then – does he throw that speed-ball by you. More annoying (to hitters, anyway) is that he won’t give in. Chopper walked only 43 hitters last year in 183 IP, and if you do manage to eke out a free pass, you have to watch out because his pickoff move is deadly.

Kawaguchi: Osamu Kohara (RHP, 36 years old) – We’re going here only because the team listed Kohara as a #2 starter in their pre-spring release. Rumor is that the career-long closer added some bulk since signing his $14M, two-year deal and the team thinks he can manage to throw 90 or 100 pitches. If they are right, they may well have created a true nightmare for SSG hitters – a starter with closer stuff. Kohara’s curveball buckles right-handed hitters and his fastball is still sneaky quick. Is he a starter, though? Your guess is as good as ours.

Niihama-shi: Kata Nakamura (RHP, 25 years old) – Nakamura used his 95 MPH fastball and a special slide to strike out 105 hitters in a rookie season that saw him win six ballgames against 10 losses. Unfortunately, he walked 79 hitters in his 135 IP – too many to be highly effective in the competitive LRS. Nakamura’s luster fades a bit against some of the other names on this list, but his minor league numbers show that he’s a solid pitcher with a solid future. If the Ghosts can get him to cut those walks about in half, they have a serious #2. Until then, he’s probably better served lower on the list.

SUMMARY: The top four on this list could just as easily be #1 guys. With a bit of growth, Nakamura could be pulled up to the elite #2 level, also. Kohara is a stretch due to his role change, but if it turns out that the Transmitters can get 90 quality pitches out of him every start, then there really are no weak sisters here.

Number Three

Kure: Yugoro “Checkmate” Chouda (RHP, 33 years old) – Owner of perhaps the best three-pitch repertoire in the LRS, including a strange thing we’ll call a screwball. Chouda has been with three teams in his LRS career and won everywhere. His career record is 75-59, with a 3.14 ERA. Perhaps even more impressive, he’s been able to stay healthy and is the closest thing to a sure bet you can get with pitchers, throwing 150-185 innings each of the last five seasons. You just don’t find his mix of power and control too many places. He’s another indicator of how good Kure’s staff is. You can hear SSG hitters all around this spring training: “Checkmate Chouda is a three? Give me a freaking break.”

Shin Seiki: Gonçalo Doroteia (RHP, 28 years old) – If hitter-speak can be trusted, Doroteia throws about 14 different changeups, each one about 2 MPH slower than the last. Then his 89 MPH fastball looks like a rocket shot. He also throws it on the black. You can pretty much pencil him in for 170 IP, 12 wins, and maybe 20 walks a year. Yeah… twenty. Think about how good Shin Seiki’s starting rotation is. Doroteia is #3 and his WHIP for each of the last three seasons has been 1.07, 1.05, and 1.06.

Hyakuuju: Manabu Taniguchi (LHP, 27 years old) – If you took Gonçalo Doroteia and removed half the strikeouts, you would be left with a guy who looks a lot like Manabu Taniguchi. “I don’t think he ever misses what he aims at,” Kawaguchi’s Shojiro Sano said , “Hitting him is frustrating as heck because his stuff just looks like you should be able to get all over it.” He frustrated LRS hitters for eight seasons to score a 98-63 career record and a seasonal average 35 VORP. Outstanding #3 guy.

Kawaguchi: Orlando Valadez (RHP, 30 years old) – Came of age in an injury-riddled 2014 season by dropping a 3.56 ERA in 113 innings and scoring a 9-7 record for a sub-.500 team. He’s got about 758 pitches and tweaks them all. He can get a key K when he needs one, doesn’t walk a ton, and allowed only eight homers. He was overpowered against other teams’ aces but fits the mold of a solid #3 like a glove.

Niihama-shi: Hiroyasu Hirano (RHP, 22 years old) – Youth continues to be served in Niihama-shi, but it’s really interesting youth. Hirano got five starts at the end of last season and impressed with a 2.96 ERA and a K/BB ratio in the range of 3.5. Add those numbers to his minor league record and you see why the Ghosts are so high on him. Can he be an effective #3? Indeed, indeed. Will it be this year? That’s a hard call, but we wouldn’t bet the house against it. We’re relatively sure that a lot of LRS hitters are going to be wishing they weren’t finding out.

Neo-Tokyo: Yasuyuki Kishita (LHP, 31 years old) – Kishita is one of those crafty left-handers – you know, one of those guys who doesn’t throw very hard but can tail off a cutter or drop a wicked slider just off the corner that looks tempting until you swing. He’s coming into the payoff year after 2013 Tommy John surgery, so the jury is out. Prior to the injury, he was a 3.40-3.50 ERA pitcher. He struggled coming back. If he gets it together, he’s a 20 VORP guy and a rock-solid #3.

SUMMARY: The top three on this list would have been #1 pitchers for some LRS teams just a few seasons back. Valadez is a serious hurler who could serve as #2. Time will tell on Hirano, but it’s hard not to see him as being something more than #3 before too long. Add in a reverted Kishita and you’ve really got a collection of guys who are better than what you would normally think of as #3 starters.

Number Four

Kure: Tashiro Meshizuka (LHP, 26 years old) – Meshizuka’s career record of 31-35 says he’s a sub-.500 pitcher, but that’s clouded by a rugged stint in Seoul. He’s 28-20 in his three seasons with Kure. At 26, we can pretty much pencil in 150 innings and an ERA south of league average. Want an intangible? He’s also one of the hardest pitchers to run on in the league. This is a #4 in the SSG. Seriously.

Shin Seiki: Tsumemasa Abe (RHP, 35 years old) – Career record of 112-47 and 3.18 ERA. Yeah, okay, Abe is on the downside of a remarkable career, but the guy was 12-8 last year with a 3.6 ERA (117 ERA+), good for 28 VORP, and now he’s sitting in the #4 slot. At one point, didn’t hitters actually look forward to the bottom half of rotations? The one chink in Abe’s armor was a K/BB ratio that fell perilously close to 2.0, so maybe, just maybe… nah.

Niihama-shi: Kosaku Sakamoto (LHP, 30 years old) – Sakamoto’s 6-11 record is a bit on the deceiving side. The veteran clubhouse leader pulled multiple duty last season, throwing from the pen four times in addition to starting 26 games. He threw 163 innings and maintained a respectable 2.02 K/BB ratio. His 4.63 ERA was his highest in three seasons; one would expect that to bounce back a bit as he moves out of the offensive-minded RKO Station. “He’s not fun to hit against,” said one SSG hitter who preferred to remain anonymous.

Hyakuuju: Kenko Saigo (RHP, 31 years old) – Take away Saigo’s cruddy 2007-2008 seasons where he went 2-20 and suddenly you see a guy in the #4 slot who’s 35-33 and has a 15-6, 3.93 ERA season to his credit. He’s been hittable in the recent past, but it’s hard to get very worried about him in the #4 slot. It’s not like he’s a walk in the park or anything. In fact, he’ll walk less than two guys per start.

Neo-Tokyo: Yasuhiro Noda (RHP, 32 years old) – The 2013 version of Noda is a solid #1/#2. That version struck out 199 hitters in 159 innings while giving up only 10 homers. There are several reasons to think he can do it again. Among them are Noda’s 97 MPH fastball and a curveball/cutter combo that make pitching coaches weep. Unfortunately, those things were around last year, too, and they resulted in a 5.44 ERA and a trade. Let’s just say that LRS hitters are hoping Noda remains true to 2014, because if he comes close to those 2013 numbers, you’ve got an ace down in the #4 hole – which is just what the league needs, eh?

Kawaguchi: Yoshiaga Seki (RHP, 32 years old) – Seki is the second coming of Yasuhiro Noda. LRS hitters destroyed him in 2014. The numbers alone tell the story: BABIP of .430, ERA of 7.20, 53 walks and ten homers in 83 innings. Clearly, one can see why we put him at the bottom of the league’s #4 starters. Still, his fastball can run up to 94 MPH, and there are those four side pitches that can all get guys out. Then there’s that 2013 (6-3, 2.98 ERA) and 2012 (5-1, 2.26 ERA out of the bullpen) performance. If his problem was a fluky BABIP, look for him to bounce back, in which case LRS hitters can look forward to the #5s.

SUMMARY: Meshizuka and Abe might be #2 guys in other universes and Sakamoto is probably good enough to be #3 in earlier eras. The bottom three are all question marks but have had brilliant seasons in the past, so it’s not too hard to project that at least one, and probably two, will terrorize hitters in 2015. Tough league to face #4 pitchers in, eh?

Number Five

Shin Seiki: José “Senore Siesta” Nieves (LHP, 28 years old) – Last year, this number five just happened to throw a perfect game. Of course, he doesn’t really have perfect game stuff, now does he? His speedball is only 89 MPH, his curve can hang, and the screwball is hittable. Except, of course, that no one actually hits any of them. His career BABIP is .266. He struck out over seven hitters a game and manages to hold onto a 2.93 K/BB ratio that shows his stuff is sneaky. This is probably a #2 or #3 in a standard group, but in the SSG, he’s a #5.

Niihama-shi: Juan Quezada (RHP, 24 years old) – Quezeda pitched 33 nondescript innings last fall, then went to Winter Ball this year and is rumored to have picked up a cutter that will make hitters bleed. If those rumors prove to be true, look for Quezeda to move up in the Ghosts’ order, because his 97 MPH fastball and his slider were already good enough to terrorize AAA hitters. Ghosts fans have to consider him an unknown, but LRS hitting coaches are already beginning to gather film on him. Odds-on bet here is that Quezeda is going to be another danged tough #5.

Neo-Tokyo: Katsuhiko “Reality Check” Rin (RHP, 32 years old) – Katsuhiko Rin has been in the LRS since its inception and has a career record of 59-57. How freaking sick is it that another #5 in the SSG has a winning career record? Even moreso when you realize that he’s managed this while pitching for Lupin, a team without a winning history. At 32, Reality Check is probably not the same guy he was when he went 21-4. He’s an aging veteran, a guy who gets folks out by showing them a slider when they were expecting a fastball. So yeah, he’s getting along. But still… do you really want to face him as a #5?

Kure: Yoichi Suzuki (RHP, 24 years old) – How many five-year veterans do you find who are 24 years old? Answer: at least one. It appears Suzuki is being pressed into the fifth starter role despite having started only 11 of his prior 195 appearances. Kure fans will wonder which pitcher they will see on the mound, though. Will it be last year’s version with his 4.12 ERA (vs. a group average 4.20), or the version of two and three years back with an ERA in the mid-2s? Either way, this guy is a tough #5.

Hyakuuju: Shoichi Ine (RHP, 25 years old) – Look, Ma, another 97 MPH fastball. Add to that a solid cutter and a LRS-capable curveball and you’ve got a 25-year-old 5^th starter with promise. Like most young pitchers, Ine has struggled with his control, walking 59 hitters in his 109 big league innings last year. If he doesn’t get that under control (Ha, see the pun! “Control”. Ha!), he’ll probably be beatable, but it’s also reasonable to expect a 24-year-old to learn a lot. If he cuts those walks, Ine will be a hard-nosed guy to face in the #5 slot.

Kawaguchi: Orinosuke Morita (RHP, 32 years old) – This will be Morita’s first year in the LRS. The scouting report says (1) he throws very hard (96 MPH), and (2) he has no idea where the ball is going. We suggest this means (1) he’ll lose a lot of games, but (2) no one is going to want to hit against him. The facts are these: Morita’s strikeout rate is astronomical (88 K in 65.2 IP while with Guadalajara in 2014). His walk rate is flabbergasting (59 BB in those same 65.2 IP).

SUMMARY: Nieves and Quezada are the real thing. Rin and Suzuki just get people out, and Ine and Morita are guys no self-respecting hitter will be digging in too deeply against. There’s no one on this list that make LRS hitters think that they’ll be having fun, fun, fun till their daddy takes their T-Bird away.