The Class of 2011: A Look at the Top Twelve LRS Draftees Two Years Later
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
by Watanabe Chiharu, ESPN-Japan.com
As we eagerly await the start of the League of the Rising Sun’s 2013 season, we find ourselves awash with free time. Rather than spend the hours playing convoluted strategy games or even arcane baseball simulators, we decided to take a look back at the cream of the crop – the first round of the much-ballyhooed 2011 LRS draft class – and look forward to where they’re heading.
A basic overview:
- Only four of the 12 selections were pitchers, yet those four were among the top five chosen.
- Of the eight position players, one was a catcher, four were infielders and three were outfielders.
- Four of the 12 are still in single-A Ruukii Kyuugi, though at least two of those four are likely to move to triple-A Minarai Doumei this season.
- Four of the 12 have been traded in the two years since the draft.
- Only one has had a taste of the bigs so far.
Currently the top-rated prospect in the LRS according to Baseball America, but what do they know? They’re in America, after all. Nakamura recently changed organizations as the centerpiece in the much-discussed trade of Ghosts stud 3B Nobuhito Hasegawa to Neo-Tokyo. Nakamura has completed two years with Nagano, posting solid, if unspectacular, numbers (3.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP).
Still, some GMs privately are uncertain whether he will ever be a star. “I have some questions as to whether or not Nakamura is an elite prospect,” said one veteran GM. “He was #1 overall and is the current #1 BA prospect, but there’s nothing in his numbers to suggest he’ll be that kind of player.” Expect him to spend 2013 in AAA as the Ghosts wait out a rebuilding year.
Neo-Tokyo had the first and second overall picks in 2011, and Mizutani – while chosen second – may indeed prove to be the stellar pitcher from this draft class. Indeed, in Neo-Tokyo’s trade talks with Niihama-shi, Mizutani was reportedly off the table from the start; Nakamura was not. Mizutani’s 2012 season in AAA (15-2, 1.44 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) explains why. By most accounts, the Beaver is indeed eager and probably ready for the parent squad this coming season, though LRS-champion Neo-Tokyo already has a solid rotation and may prefer to give him one more year of seasoning on the farm.
The third overall pick is the second to have been traded (and the second with a great nickname). Hashimoto was the centerpiece of the blockbuster deal just two months ago between Lupin and Seoul. The Crushers clearly coveted this Six Pack, giving up the first overall pick in the upcoming draft (as well as a fifth rounder) and taking on the salary of gaijin 3B José Escalante (who is now being shopped).
But due to injuries, Hashimoto had just seven starts in 2012 (all at AAA) with stats that clearly show further growth is in order. Said one GM, “He has the makings of a superstar. However, he’s acquired some risk after a slow adjustment to AAA and a couple of injuries last year. I still think he’ll be good, but trading him for a #1 overall is defensible.”
The first position player to go in the 2011 LRS draft, Tippy progressed nicely last year (his first in AAA), hitting an even .300 with a .773 OPS. One observer, requesting anonymity, commented: “He could be one of the best second basemen in the league, with speed and a bit of power. I remain concerned about his propensity to strike out, but I imagine Steel Dragons AAA coaches are working on that as we speak. He’s a valuable commodity.”
Ikarashi was the fourth SP among the top five picks and is the first of the top 10 to make an appearance in the bigs. In fact, back in 2011, prognosticators expected Ikarashi to be grabbed by Neo-Tokyo as the #2 overall pick. “With Nakamura and Ikarashi, the Akira would have a 1-2 punch to be reckoned with for years to come,” wrote one pundit.
Instead, Ikarashi fell to fifth and then, more surprisingly, he was shipped by year’s end to the Evas along with CF Manabu Kawano (now in AAA) for 1B Augusto Delgado. They may be regretting this back in Seoul, with Ikarashi shaping up to be a premier starter for the powerful Shin Seiki squad. “Next to Mizutani, he’s probably the best pitching prospect of the (2011) bunch,” said one observer, shaking his head. Still, Ikarashi started two games at the end of 2012 for the Evas with less than impressive results (0-2, 5.68 ERA, 1.66 WHIP). Most pundits expect Shin Seiki management to give him another season at AAA.
Only the second position player chosen in the draft, Masuda missed two months to injuries during 2012 and appeared in just 23 AAA games. “Masuda still projects very well,” said another squad’s player development director, requesting anonymity, “but I’m worried that he is injury-prone and I’m waiting to see what he can do for a full season at AAA.”
Pick #7 by Kure: 3B Matsusuke Hamada
The first big surprise of the 2011 draft, as few so-called experts saw Hamada going this high. “He was off our radar,” said one scout after the pick. His first two seasons, both in single-A, have shown steady development, particularly in his contact rate. Kure’s front office appears poised to place Hamada as their starting second baseman in AAA for 2013.
Ah, the pundits. By the time we know they’re wrong, we’ve forgotten what they predicted. Well, we dug up this prediction from one expert prior to the 2011 draft: “I see Edo (at #9) making a move to grab a replacement for the great Carlos Gómez, who will likely price himself out of the LRS when his contract expires after 2012. With (Carlos) Aguilera off the board and this strictly being a two-catcher draft, Edo will jump on the near-equal alternative in Yosuke Imai.”
Well, Gómez is gone, true enough. But Aguilera fell to round two, while the Celestial Warriors grabbed Imai as the eighth overall pick before Edo had a chance. A year later, Fushigi Yugi shipped Imai to the trade-loving Crushers as part of a six-player deal. Edo signed the Dragonslayer to a three-year deal in 2012, and we’ll always wonder if they’d have taken a cheaper stopgap had Imai fallen to them at ninth. Meantime, Imai now resides on the touted Ranma Pandas squad, with Seoul management banking on him to develop into a premier – or at least serviceable – backstop when the Crushers are ready to contend. Or perhaps more likely, Imai will again become trade bait.
We have no idea if Edo actually planned on going for Imai, but with the catcher off the board at the ninth pick, Edo instead went for this fine-looking shortstop. Described by one analyst as “the draft’s best position player”, Oyama progressed nicely during a season-and-a-half of A-ball and was promoted to AAA midway through 2012. Here’s another expert prediction gone wrong: “Don’t be surprised if he’s the first from this class to taste the big leagues.” (The Evas’ Ikarashi won that distinction). With Edo’s Jorge Rivera locked in through 2016, Oyama could very well become trade bait as his skills develop.
In 2010, Edo had two first round picks and went for two pitchers. In 2011, Edo also had two and went for position players. With their second pick, the Battousai chose Takeda, who continues to look extremely promising. His contact rate developed during two seasons in A-ball, and management is surely hoping he begins to move toward his potential in power as well. A full season in AAA is expected, perhaps with a late-season call-up to the bigs.
Pick #11 by Niihama-shi: CF Kiyomitsu Kichikawa
Pick #12 by Naha: SS Yukinaga “Gigolo” Komatsu
A bit of a sleeper pick (appropriately, given his nickname), Komatsu could be that rare combination of speed, defense and (potentially) some power. Those skills haven’t quite shown themselves in two years in the minors – the second at AAA – so the jury is still very much out on Komatsu, who is already 23. “There’s little doubt he’ll be in the bigs shortly,” says one observer. “I’m just not sure if he’ll blossom beyond a strong utility infielder.”
Several of these twelve may indeed be invited to their parent clubs’ spring training in a few weeks. Perhaps one or two may impress their coaches sufficiently to earn a spot on the active roster. Whatever the outcome this spring, we have little doubt that the all-knowing pundits will be heaving their predictions right and left.