3/2/2013: Louisville, KY – In baseball, as in life, there are certain titles that evoke an image or particular emotion.  Certain phrases grab your imagination, enabling a cascade of associations to course through your mind.  “Fall Classic” stirs up a picture of autumn leaves, cool brisk nights and a closer trying to protect a one-run lead with an opposing slugger at the plate.  “Designated for assignment” leaves you wondering the fate of some young player who has worked his whole life for a chance to play in the big leagues but whose fight has taken a major step backward of some kind.  “Placed on the disabled list” is synonymous with a loss of hope, as a cruel twist of fate has rendered your star player unable to compete for a period of time.  Doubt creeps in over whether or not he’ll return at the same level and, depending on the nature of the injury, how long it will be before he takes the first steps on the journey back.

And then, there’s “spring training.”  There are few words in baseball that are as anticipated as these two.  The long wait of winter is over.  The Winter Meetings are a distant memory and the hot stove discussions have died down.  Most of the marquee free agents will have signed with teams no later than mid-January, and speculation about the coming season has been going in full for some time.  Spring training is when those questions start to get answered.  Will the up-and-coming prospect show enough to push the veteran to the bench, or will he be sent back down for another year of seasoning in the minors?  Can that player transition to his new role or position?

Of course, the most exciting thing about spring training is the hope that the new season brings.  Without having played any games yet, just about every fan base has the chance to speculate on what might be if everything breaks right this year.  Good teams see themselves battling it out all season long, slowly pulling away from the pack in August and then cruising to a division title.  Lesser teams see themselves fighting tooth and nail until the final week, when a well-timed sweep sees them eke out a wild card finish that all of the pundits doubted.  Once in the post-season, anything can happen, and the unexpected title finally comes home.

Think it’s unlikely?  Consider the following.  The 2012 Tempe Knights won the Planetary Extreme Championship two years after going 84-78.  The 2011 Florida Featherheads won the championship two years after going 81-81.  Each of those teams took a major step forward in the intervening year.  In fact, the Borealis and Statesmen, who won in 2009 and 2010, respectively, even had 87-win seasons two years before their titles.  (On a side note, the 2007 Borealis hold the record for most games underperforming their Pythagorean record, by 12 wins.  Had they played to their run differential, they would have won 99 instead of 87, so they don’t quite fit the pattern as well as the other teams listed here.)

So what does that mean for the Connecticut Nutmeggers?  Do they have a shot at contention?  Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but…no.  The Nutmeggers haven’t done something all those other teams have done: win half their games.  The team was just three games under .500 in 2010 and 2011 but took a significant step backwards this past season.  That’s not in line with the pattern we’ve seen with everyone else.  In fact, only five of the 48 post-season teams in PEBA history have reached the playoffs after posting a losing record the year before.  Those teams include the 2008 Fishermen, 2009 Maulers, 2010 Dinosaurs, 2011 Coal Sox and 2011 Maulers.  The Maulers are interesting in that they made rather significant roster changes that enabled each of those jumps (see here and here), and each season was accompanied by a significant investment financially.  Those two jumps followed the two worst previous season records of all PEBA post-season participants.  However, the Nutmeggers haven’t added big names the way those Maulers teams did.  They’ve added some salary but have actually been more aggressive in getting rid of long-term debt for short-term contracts on players who aren’t living up to their value.

The team has some decent players but not nearly enough to really contend.  In some ways, that will make spring training more interesting given that there are several places where players have a chance to put themselves on the Opening Day roster.  Here’s a breakdown of what to look for over the next month as manager Alonso Rodríguez pares down the roster for Opening Day.

Catcher – Expected: Samuel Kettley – Challenger: Yanick Piché

The 23-year-old Kettley was never officially on the trade block, although there were rumors that several teams inquired about his services and a deal was close a couple of times.  Many think he’ll be a regular All-Star, and he’s now got the full-time catching duties moving forward.  Even if his bat never matures to what scouts expect, his soft hands and strong arm will give pitchers confidence to throw any pitch in any count.  Piché won’t push Kettley much this spring.  He’s serviceable, though, and at 24 is inexpensive.  Neither his bat nor his glove is as strongas Kettley’s.

First Base – Expected: Juan Otero – Challenger: Alfred Lacey

At 32, Otero has already seen some decline in his performance, which has some fans wanting to see Lacey get more playing time.  However, the $6.6 million still owed to Otero for this season makes it hard to justify keeping him on the bench.  Lacey’s not exactly a world-beater, and while he could easily step into the first base role if Otero were to be traded, he could just as easily end up back in AAA if the position doesn’t open up.  The Nutmeggers would be happy to trade Otero but haven’t been able to drum up enough interest at this point.

Second Base – Expected: George John – Challengers: Kenneth Morton, Jimmy Lord

John struggled through an injury-plagued 2012, and his numbers reflected it.  He’s got All-Star potential if he can stay healthy and hit for average, as he did in 2009 and 2010.  At 26, John’s in the final year of his contract and it’s unlikely the Nutmeggers will be able to afford to keep him after the season, which is why they traded for Alonso Méndez.  Méndez will get at least one more year in the minors, which opens the door for Morton and Lord to fight it out for utility infielder on the 2013 squad.  Lord’s defensive advantage at all four infield positions makes him the odds-on favorite.  The team would likely consider trading John at the deadline if it looks like a contender is interested.

Third Base – Expected: Augusto Valdéz – Challengers: Tom Harris, Jimmy Lord

Valdéz was brought in on a one-year contract – although not particularly cheaply – to handle third base duties.  In his absence, it seemed likely that Lord would have been tabbed for this position.  Valdéz may not hit for much average but should give the team another power threat in the middle of the order.  Harris will probably be an early candidate for demotion.

Shortstop – Expected: Ronald Lowry – Challengers: Xavier Lara, Jimmy Lord

Lowry is the team’s biggest offensive star and unlikely to be moved, so there isn’t really any competition here.  Lara’s usefulness is as a minor league injury call-up.  If Lowry gets hurt, the Nutmeggers don’t have anyone to replace his bat.

Left Field – Expected: Roger Jordan – Challengers: Ramón Rodríguez,

Brooks Erickson’s trade counterpart is most likely to get the starting nod in left, although Jordan could also be moved over to right.  Besides Erickson, Rodríguez was the only player to appear in left field for more than three games with the Nutmeggers last year, posting a .300 AVG and .402 OBP in over 200 AB.

Center Field – Expected: Katsunosuki Kichida – Challengers: Takuro Aoki, George Taylor

Another position where the expected starter was traded straight-up for the departing one (Bob Jefferson), this one isn’t quite as simple.  Kichida’s really better suited as a corner outfielder, and his inability to hit for average suggests that his best spot may even be in the LRS.  Aoki was a Rule 5 draft pick and, given the fact that he’s the only player in the organization who’s a good defensive option and has a bat that could keep him in the PEBA, he’s not likely to be sent down.  That means Taylor’s probably out of luck.

Right Field – Expected: Up for grabs – Challengers: Pedro González, Daniel Williams, Oliver Douglas, Dan Beasley, Peter Trent

No player started more than 65 games in right field last year (that player was Jorge Ruíz, who’s now a free agent), and it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see a reprise of the same revolving door.  González started nearly twice as many games as Williams, but Williams played more defensive innings.  They’re fairly similar players, although Williams will likely hit for a bit higher average with less power.  Douglas is the minor league challenger who has the potential to be the best of the three, while Beasley and Trent are the long shots.

Designated Hitter – Expected: Jorge Morín – Challengers: Whoever is left standing as the best bat on the bench.

Morín is the minor league darling of the organization with the bat, but his defense isn’t anything to get excited about.  He’s still got some learning to do, but he’s at the point where that learning might be better accomplished in a more challenging environment.  Given the team’s low expectations, there shouldn’t be too much pressure on him to learn quickly.  If he can’t do it, either Lacey or one of the excess outfielders will get the role.

Starting Rotation – Locks: Adrián Reséndez, António Cruz – Contenders: Carlos Cervantes, Cris Reyes, Ed O’Bryan, Francis Phillips, Rick Whitney, Luis Valdés, Wil Suárez, José Solís

Beyond the first two guys, there’s a whole bevy of options, and this doesn’t even include Anastasio Juárez, who’s on the DL and not due to return till August.  Cervantes is just barely recovered from his own shoulder injury and Reyes was hurt almost all of last season, so there’s little certainty with either of them.  Each of them will likely be given the first chance to win two of the remaining three rotation slots.  Phillips was tremendous in the closer role last year, but the development of David Chesney means that either of them could realistically take on that responsibility.  Phillips throws a wide assortment of pitches and has thrown close to 100 relief innings each of the past four seasons, so it’s possible the team could stretch him out this spring and have him start.  Obviously, if that doesn’t work, he goes back to anchoring the pen, and the team has a great 1-2 punch there.

O’Bryan is the only real prospect on this list and the team would love to see him develop into a solid rotation member this spring.  Whitney’s a Rule 5 pick likely to get a bullpen role if he doesn’t show enough for the rotation.  The others are almost certainly slated for the pen but could easily bounce into the rotation if needed.  One thing that should be somewhat clear is that the bullpen is going to be able to eat innings when needed, even if it doesn’t have the quality arms that other pens in the league have.

A last note on the Phillips experiment: If enough of the other pitchers prove they can start, then Phillips will likely end up back in the pen anyway, since he’s already proven he can handle that role very well.

Closer – Expected: David Chesney – Challengers: Francis Phillips

This is how the team has stated they’d like to see it work out; Phillips in the rotation and Chesney closing it out.  Realistically, that’s probably not how it’s going to end up, and Chesney in the setup role would be a very nice player to have there.  If he really shows something this spring, it’s even possible that Phillips gets the setup role.  Don’t be surprised to see Phillips in another uniform, either.  He’d be more valuable to trade than in a middle relief role on a losing team.

Relievers – Expected: Luis Gonzáles – Challengers: Armando Pineda, Christian Thomas, Tu-an Ni

As stated above, the middle relief corps will almost certainly be filled with failed starters rather than relief aces.  Pineda’s the only pitcher of the three challengers here that has a good shot at the team, although it wouldn’t be that surprising to see Thomas get called up after an injury.  The team doesn’t have the money to go out and sign better bullpen arms, and there’s little in the minors outside of Chesney capable of filling such a role.  One advantage that Alonso Rodríguez will have in making his evaluations this spring is a good mix of righties and lefties, which will give him plenty of tactical options.  There may not be a lot of quality, but the depth means there are a lot of options.

Samuel Platt covers the Nutmeggers for the Connecticut Post