10/1/2012: Bakersfield, CA – With the 2012 regular season at a close, it is once again time to review the status of the Bakersfield Bears’ minor league system.  As in 2011, the front office is overjoyed by the number of bona fide prospects in the pipeline.  After languishing near (or at) the bottom of the list for years, the Bakersfield system presently sits at number five in the latest Baseball America rankings of PEBA minor league systems.

With the parent club’s success (Bakersfield ended the season at 101-61 and are arming up for the post-season) and manageable (if not always preferable) injuries over the course of the season, there was little need to bring up more than a few of the Bears’ top prospects.  However, with the imminent departure of 3B Josh Emery, SS Brian O’Donnell and CF Alberto Delgado, and questions swirling around the Bears’ intentions regarding arbitration for C Chance “Scandal” Tidwell and pitchers Raúl Cortéz and Roy “Zippo” Whitfield, you can expect to see at least a few of the following faces in Bakersfield come Opening Day 2013 at The Chocolate Factory at Yum! Field.

The following is the first in a two-part series.  I will offer a view into the pitching outlook throughout Bakersfield’s farm system and an in-depth examination of the top ten pitching prospects.

Lots of this in the Bears’ future (minus the whole LSD thing)?

Minor League Overview
Unlike 2009 through 2011, the Bears did not make pitching a top priority in their 2012 amateur draft.  However, the team’s efforts in those prior years are beginning to bear tangible fruit in the upper levels of the farm system.  The AAA West Valley City Grizzlies’ pitching staff was #2 overall in the GBB’s Rocky Mountain League with a 3.29 ERA.  The Grizzlies were first in starter ERA at 3.33, runs allowed at 515, hits allowed at 1070, home runs allowed at 79 and strikeouts at 1,155.  The staff was anything but a one-trick pony, as it was second in the league in bullpen ERA at 3.40, opponents’ average at .228 and BABIP at .286.  Indeed, the only statistic where the Grizzlies were not in the top two for the league was in walks, where it finished fourth with 508.

Not to be outdone, the Bears’ AA affiliate, the Sherwood Park Hoods, finished third in the GNL’s Canadian Alliance League with an overall ERA of 3.72 and were top three in the league in all pitching categories except bullpen ERA (where they were fourth at 3.67) and walks (where the Hoods were seventh at 568).  Likewise, the staff for the Chula Vista Chargers, playing in the SoCal Division of the NAFTA High-A Baja Cali League, was ranked fourth overall in the league with a 3.92 ERA and finished no less than fourth in all categories save strikeouts (where they finished tenth with 684).

In short, since 2009, the Bears have made a concerted effort to become a pitching-first organization, especially given the fact that The Chocolate Factory at Yum! Field is an extreme pitcher’s park.  And while the transformation to pitching dominance at the major league level has thus far been entirely though the free agency and trade routes, it will soon be due to the homegrown talent discussed below.  Given the fact that the entire Bakersfield starting rotation (which was first in the Sovereign League with a 3.18 ERA) is returning in 2013, it is hard to see where the following prospects (who, at the upper levels, are exclusively starting pitchers) will fit in.  One way or another, many of the pitchers discussed below will not be minor leaguers for much longer.

Top Ten Bakersfield Minor League Pitchers
Todd Burns: Burns’s meteoric rise through the Bakersfield system has been nothing short of jaw-dropping.  A fourth round reach from Katy High School in 2010, Burns’s 2012 was perhaps even better than his sparkling 2011.  While the organization was split regarding his maturity and readiness to take to the mound as a starting pitcher in AAA at the tender age of 20, he ultimately proved to be more than ready.

This is not to say it was always smooth sailing for the 5’10” right-hander in 2012.  In his first two months in AAA, Burns was anything but dominant, posting a 1-2 record over seven starts with an ERA north of 7.00.  However, the Bakersfield brass looked past those numbers to see some truly encouraging signs over that period (35 strikeouts to 9 walks, first and foremost) and chalked up the early season troubles to normal growing pains.

Burns rewarded the front office’s patience with a positively dominant rest of the season.  He finished the 2012 campaign 11-5 with a 3.15 ERA, 170 strikeouts and 50 walks.  Additionally, Burns showed that he had mastered AAA in August, where his numbers were unmatched: he went 4-1 with a 0.87 ERA over five starts, giving up three earned runs in 31 IP.  But even those numbers don’t tell just how dominant he was.  He gave up zero home runs, notched 45 strikeouts to 10 walks, had a WHIP of 1.00 and held opponents to an average of .189 during the month.  Luck had nothing to do with it: his BABIP during that stretch was an atrocious .318.

Of course, as discussed last year, it is not just his numbers that has everyone excited.  Burns’s makeup is a manager’s dream.  He is an exceptionally smart player with a now fully developed (and devastating) slider, changeup and a fastball that is consistently hitting 97-99 MPH.  In fact, the only thing preventing Burns from being a front of the rotation starter in the PEBA right now is his control (though given his 50 walks over the course of 141.1 IP this year, there is no reason to consider even this to be a glaring weakness).  Burns may not be garnering the attention of some of the pitchers selected at the top of recent drafts, but within a few years his name will be known to even the most casual PEBA fan.

Félix “Cyclone” Maese: This 21-year-old right-handed starting pitcher, a 2010 first round pick by the Bears, has “three-tool” emotional makeup: he is smart, hardworking and a natural born leader.  Maese is giving every indication he will soon be a mainstay in the Bears’ rotation for years to come.  While his 2012 season with AA Sherwood Park was disappointing in that he never truly dominated and because he suffered a herniated disc which shut him down for good in July, there is little doubt that he is continuing to develop and will be ready for the majors sometime in 2014.

As noted, his 7-7 record and 4.27 ERA over 22 starts in 2012 were anything but eye-popping.  Still, a look behind the numbers shows that in 2012 Maese improved some key underlying numbers from his 2011 season with High-A Chula Vista.  Specifically, his hits per 9 IP sunk from 9.46 to 8.07 and his strikeouts per 9 IP rose from 4.76 to 6.87.  Once again, Maese has demonstrated that he is able to keep the ball in the park: just like last year, he gave up only five home runs.  Maese will open 2013 with AAA West Valley City, where the Bears expect he will develop into a major league-ready starter by 2014.

Fred Benjamin: This time last year, Bakersfield was crowing about this 22-year-old left-handed starting pitcher’s projected ability.  After 2012, those projections are now a reality.  Yes, his cutter, curve, changeup, splitter and forkball are all still developing into plus pitches, but instead of reaching back to his college ball statistics to show what Benjamin is capable off, one need look no further than his 2012 campaign with AA Sherwood Park.  His 17 wins and 4.22 ERA were impressive enough, but when compared to last year’s stint at Low-A Cold Bay and High-A Chula Vista, he improved in just about every category.  His K/BB ratio increased from 1.59 to 2.64; his runners allowed per 9 IP dropped from 14.1 to 11.01; his hits per 9 IP dropped from 9.00 to 7.49; his walks per 9 IP dropped from 4.25 to 2.94; and his strikeouts per 9 IP improved from 6.75 to 7.75.  Benjamin’s ERC was 2.88 (a stunning 1.4 runs lower than his actual ERA).

Like Todd Burns, Benjamin also closed out the season proving he was more than ready to progress.  Not only was his August superb (he posted a 5-2 record with a 1.31 ERA in seven starts), but he was an absolute beast in the post-season.  In leading the Hoods to their first Maple Leaf Classic championship, Benjamin went 2-1 with a 0.76 ERA, giving up a measly two earned runs in 23.2 IP.  Indeed, his one hit, one walk complete game masterpiece against Toronto was probably the best outing by any pitcher at any level of the Bears’ organization throughout 2012.  Expect to see him in AAA to start 2013 and the majors shortly thereafter.

Phil Anderson: Much like Benjamin, 2012 was the year that Anderson turned promise into production.  Unlike Benjamin, this right-handed starting pitcher is just 20 years old and continuing to develop physically – as was demonstrated by the increased zip on his fastball this year (it’s now reaching 92 MPH).  However, Anderson’s stuff is not what makes him such an intriguing prospect.  Spending the bulk of the year with High-A Chula Vista, Anderson showed major improvements from 2011.  His ERA shrunk to 3.11 and he improved his numbers for runners allowed, hits and strikeouts per 9 IP.  Best of all, he maintained a 2:1 K/BB ratio throughout the season.

Anderson was called up to AA to end the season and responded quite well.  He went 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 5 starts.  While Anderson continues to improve what will be a respectable major league arsenal – sinker, curveball, slider and changeup – it is his control and movement potential (which are increasingly being realized) that should catapult Anderson to becoming a top of the rotation starter for Bakersfield by 2015.

Augusto Peralta: Peralta has a lot more to celebrate than his recent 24^th birthday.  This free agent signee’s 2012 was the polar opposite of a disastrous 2011 campaign that saw him lose major time to elbow tendonitis.  In 2012, he developed a plus curve and changeup, which has complemented his average fastball and splitter nicely.  However, the real jump in 2012 for Peralta has been his improved control, which Bakersfield scouts now believe will be well above average.

Peralta started and ended the year in AAA, and from July 1 onward was nearly flawless.  During that stretch, he went 6-0 over 12 starts spanning 81.1 IP and maintained a sub-2.00 ERA.  Incredibly, 11 of his 12 turns on the mound during this period resulted in quality starts.  In those final two-plus months, he also carried a WHIP a hair above 0.90 and gave up only three home runs (as opposed to the 12 that he allowed to leave the park from April through June).

Peralta finished the year with a 3.13 ERA, 151 strikeouts, 46 walks, and a 1.10 WHIP.  In other words, he has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues and already could be a mid-rotation starter in the majors.  Look for him to challenge Desmond “The Wizard” Barnes for the fifth spot in the Bears’ rotation to start 2013.  Though he is unlikely to win that battle, the Bears are happy to have him on call when the need arises.

Jaime Salinas: It is hard to believe that Salinas has been in the Bears’ system for four years, after being drafted in the fourth round of the 2009 amateur draft as a 17-year-old high schooler.  This squat left-handed starting pitcher, who is now 21, suffered every pitcher’s worst nightmare shortly into the 2011 campaign when he tore his UCL and required Tommy John surgery.  However, after a 13-month hiatus, Salinas was right back in the thick of the things at AA in 2012.

Indeed, Salinas showed no sign of lingering injury issues and pitched solidly throughout the year.  His average-to-plus cutter, slider and changeup all remained strong, and he even added a few MPH to his fastball.  He finished 2012 going 8-5 with a 2.91 ERA, and his WHIP has seen a steady improvement since he’s been in the Bears’ system.  In fact, his 116-47 K/BB ratio was far and away the best of his minor league career.  Concerns persist about Salinas’s control, which has not yet developed, but at 21 and with an intelligence and work ethic that would make any manager happy to have him on the team, there is every reason to believe Salinas could be a mid-rotation starting pitcher for the Bears by 2015.

Xiao-peng Li: There is no way to sugarcoat it: Li was far and away the most disappointing pitcher in Bakersfield’s minor league stable in 2012.  At just 21, there was every reason to believe this time last year that the right-handed Li was on the verge of becoming an above-average major league starter.  But instead of a prospect, Li is quickly becoming a mystery.  He has mastered an outstanding fastball, slider and changeup.  He has above-average stuff and truly special movement.  He is exceptionally smart and works hard.  However, Li was able to crack the 4.00 ERA level only one month this season and seemed to be mired in mediocrity most of the time.

That said, there remain many reasons to be optimistic.  At 22, he has plenty of time to master the control issues that have plagued him.  Furthermore, though his 4.09 ERA was scarcely better than the 4.16 he recorded in AAA in 2011, the rest of his numbers improved – some greatly.  Despite pitching only 8.1 less innings in 2012, he gave up 30 less hits and fanned 24 more batters, and his WHIP dropped from 1.52 to 1.40.  However, until Li improves his control, he will never be the #2 or #3 starter that Bakersfield believes he can be.  The question for the front office is whether a stint in winter ball is worth the investment or whether Li should be given the chance to straighten out his control issues on his own schedule and under less organizational pressure in the minor leagues.

Carlos “Big Shot” Laurenzana: While the Bears were hoping for bigger things from Laurenzana in 2012, his season closing out games for the Low-A Cold Bay Eleven was certainly solid enough to keep hopes for his development high.  At a towering 6’4”, this big lefty certainly was an imposing figure during his college career with Marshall, where in four seasons he struck out 208 and walked 37.  He also showed remarkable consistently in college ball, carrying a WHIP of .91, .92 and .91 in his final three years.

However, Laurenzana’s first year in the Bakersfield system was far from dominating.  In 34 appearances, he went 2-5 with 18 saves and a 3.79 ERA.  His 24-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 1.73 WHIP were far from optimal, and his 5.73 ERC was downright horrible.  Still, his ERA improved every month and he finished the season on a high note, going 1-0 with 4 saves and a 2.84 ERA in September.  Given his potential and age, expect to see Laurenzana continue to develop what should become a strong splitter and fastball with High-A Chula Vista in 2013.

Ed Olson: This sturdy 19-year-old right-hander was drafted from Katy High School in the third round of the 2012 amateur draft.  Given the Bears’ long relationship with the coaching staff at Katy – which included being tipped off about Todd Burns’s potential back in 2010 – they were willing to overlook Olson’s mediocre numbers and draft him on projection alone.  Especially intriguing to Bakersfield is the possibility that Olson could be converted to a starter in the coming years.  While the conversion would likely depend on whether he can develop his slider to match a strong fastball and changeup, it remains a distinct possibility.

In any event, thus far the Bears look to have made a wise choice with Olson.  While the sheer number of pitchers on Cold Bay’s roster limited the amount of action Olson saw, he did not disappoint when he got the chance to pitch.  In 12 outings spanning 17.1 innings, Olson went 2-0 with two saves and a 1.04 ERA.  Most exciting is his ability to bring the heat; his fastball is already consistently hitting 94 MPH.  Expect to see the Bears using Olson perhaps as a starter in High-A Chula Vista to start the 2013 season.

Ernesto Escobar: At 24, this right-handed starting pitcher is on the verge of being considered one of the Bears’ greatest draft busts.  Chosen in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft when most thought he would last into the third or fourth rounds, Escobar has until recently been the victim of bad luck and the owner of many bad outings.  Of course, it would be unfair to expect anything more from a guy who missed substantial portions of 2010 (nine weeks due to an elbow strain), 2011 (15 weeks for shoulder inflammation) and 2012 (three weeks due to elbow soreness).

There were glimmers of hope in 2012, though.  Escobar went 8-8 with a 3.14 ERA and fanned 116 while walking only 57 in 123 innings.  While these statistics are not exactly overwhelming given his advanced age, the loss of significant playing time the last three years combined with his fully developed fastball, slider and changeup means that all is (perhaps) not lost.  Given these factors and his 2012 performance, Escobar has earned himself a ticket to AAA, where he will have a shot to demonstrate that he has the talent to make a meaningful contribution at the major league level.