Friday, October 21, 2011

With the 2011 season in the books – and next year not quite here yet – it is time to undertake an evaluation the Bakersfield Bears’ minor league system from top to bottom.  Like the parent club, the farmhands in the Bears’ system exhibited their fair share of ups and downs in 2011.  However, unlike the dark days of 2008 and 2009, when the minor league system was adrift and bereft of talent beyond a few diamonds in the rough, it now appears that help is on the way.  While the Bears enjoyed the services of a few young guns in 2011, they are confident that by mid-season of 2011 and continuing on through 2015, a steady stream of players – more than a few of whom will be stars – will first don the Bakersfield blue and white at The Chocolate Factory at Yum! Field.

This will be the first of a two-part article, analyzing the top ten pitchers and hitters in Bakersfield’s minor league system.

Top 10 Pitchers

Perusing the Bears’ minor league system, one thing becomes clear: the days of bruising Bears baseball are numbered.  While the front office – and the fans – enjoyed the days where Bakersfield would outslug opponents 8-6 on a regular basis, it is clear the team’s future lies in its pitching.  More specifically, its starting pitching.  Nine of the Bears’ top ten pitching prospects are starting pitchers.  By 2015, the Bears could be sporting the best starting staff in the PEBA, at a cost of little more than $2 million.  You may not know their names yet, but the Bears currently have three or four starting pitchers at the AAA and AA levels who all could be making substantial meaningful contributions at the major league level within the next one to four years.  Our thoughts on each – and our loose attempts to rank each – follow below.

Todd Burns: The 19-year-old took the Bakersfield front office – and all of the PEBA – by surprise in the second half of 2011.  A fourth round pick out of Katy High School in 2010, Burns had a spectacular year.  Starting out in A-ball with Chula Vista, Burns put up unremarkable numbers over 10 starts, going 2-6 with a 4.88 ERA.  However, his K/BB ratio of 52-28, his feisty temperament and a raft of minor league injuries convinced the front office he was ready for the Bears’ AA club, Sherwood Park.  And boy, did Burns respond, going 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA over 14 starts.  More impressive was his 72:46 K/BB ratio and 1.20 WHIP.  After turning in ten out of 14 quality starts in AA, Burns was called up to AAA West Valley City in the final week of the season and responded by twirling a 7.2 inning, one hit gem.  Furthermore, it is fair to say that Bakersfield brass are now downright giddy over the recent scouting reports on Burns, who is renowned for being among the smartest pitchers in the Bears’ system.  He has responded extremely well to coaching and, at 19 years old, his pitches are nearly fully developed.  Combine his outstanding intangibles with an excellent slider, changeup and a fastball that hits 98 MPH, and there is every reason to be very, very excited about Burns.  His only apparent weak spot – his control – could be vastly improved with his expected stint in Winter Ball this year, in which case a healthy Burns is a near lock to be wearing a Bears uniform sometime in 2013.

Fun Fact: Todd’s grandfather was the inspiration for Major Frank Burns on the television show M*A*S*H, and as a result Todd has been engaged in a very messy – and very public – spat with Alan Alda since he was 13.

Félix “Cyclone” Maese: Despite the fact that nobody in the Bakersfield front office is exactly sure how to pronounce this 20-year-old hurler’s last name, everyone agrees that this young right-hander is well on his way to becoming a frontline starter for the Bears by Opening Day 2014.  What sticks out with Cyclone, a 2010 first round pick, is his intelligence, work ethic and outstanding leadership; this kid has “team captain” written all over him.  Of course, none of this is meant to diminish the physical talents of this starting pitcher, which are substantial.  While still developing his fantastic fastball, changeup and splitter, Maese doubled his K/BB ratio from a year ago (especially encouraging given the fact that he is still developing physically) and had an excellent second half of the season at A-ball.  July and August saw him post a 3.4 ERA with a near 3:1 K/BB ratio.  Additionally, Maese has shown an aptitude for keeping the ball in the park, giving up just five home runs in 149 innings pitched in 2011 – a feat that will only get easier when he begins pitching in the Bears’ cavernous stadium.  Maese is not quite there yet, but he will absolutely be worth the wait when he arrives sometime in 2014.

Fun Fact: Felix wanted to be called “The Cat”, but settled on “Cyclone” after Félix “The Cat” Fermín signed on as a consultant with the Bears organization in 2010.

Xiao-peng Li: Another exceptionally smart starting pitcher – and another fourth round pick out of Katy High School – this 21-year-old has taken his time rising through the Bears’ minor league system.  While Li’s somewhat plodding ascendancy hit a bit of a bump in 2011, his fist year at AAA, it appears that Li’s struggles are the normal growing pains of what should be a long career.  And there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.  Despite an exceptionally rough April and August in 2011, Li posted a sparkling ERA and WHIP in May, June and July, when he sported a 2:1 K/BB ratio.  Like Burns, Li is still learning to master his control, and the Bears expect a productive session in Winter Ball may well be enough to land him a spot in Bakersfield’s 2012 starting rotation.  Given his outstanding fastball, slider, and changeup, pitches he has already nearly mastered, and his excellent movement, the front office projects he will be a mainstay at the number two or three spot for the Bears for years to come.

Fun Fact: Partly due to language issues and partly due to his childlike sense of wonder and trusting nature, in 2009, Li’s teammates convinced him that Pat Lilly was an actual bear.

Fred Benjamin: This 21-year-old southpaw starter was drafted out of Indiana in the second round of the 2011 draft.  Another strong leader, Benjamin’s strength lies in his ability to use an array of five plus pitches.  Bakersfield scouts say he’s on his way to developing an above average cutter, curve, changeup, splitter and forkball.  As a result, he’s showing a marked ability to throw lively pitches when need be, but also exhibit pinpoint accuracy when required.  These traits undoubtedly contributed his ability to strike out 351 batters in just over 300 innings of college ball, all while walking a total of 43.  While he breezed through a month of short season A-ball, Benjamin ran into a bit of trouble at the Hi-A level, where he racked up a 4.75 ERA.  That said, his quickly developing skills should earn him a ticket to the Bears’ AA affiliate in 2012 and a spot near the top of the Bears’ rotation by no later than 2014.

Fun Fact: Fred yells, “It’s all about the Benjamins, baby!” after notching every strikeout.  This hasn’t been considered witty by a single teammate since 2004, when he was playing PONY League ball.

Phil Anderson: Drafted in the third round of the 2011 draft, this 19-year-old right-handed starting pitcher is giving Bears fans a lot of reason to be optimistic.  His 2011 campaign in short season A-ball was not without its hiccups – he finished with a 4.75 ERA, and opponents hit a generous .289 when he was on the mound.  Additionally, it does not appear that he is ever going to blow batters away with his speed, which tops out in the low 90s.  That said, this extreme groundball pitcher showed flashes of outstanding movement and an ability to throw his out pitch when needed: in 103.1 innings, he stuck out 57, walked 31 and gave up a single long ball.  Given his potential to throw an array of pitches when needed (sinker, curveball, slider and changeup) and his outstanding personal makeup, Anderson could be a mainstay in the Bears’ rotation by Opening Day 2015.

Fun Fact: rumors abound that Anderson’s real father and namesake is none other than television shrink “Dr. Phil”.

Fernando Pereira: Bill Adams, the Bears’ head scout, signed this 22-year-old Nicaraguan lefty closer in June of this year, and already the Bakersfield brass is raving about his potential.  While it remains to be seen whether he has the skill to become a closer for the Bears, there is little doubt he will one day be a late-inning assassin out of the pen.  He has demonstrated an exceptional work ethic in his time with the Bears, and it is the front office’s hope that he develops a changeup to compliment an above average fastball and a weak-but-passable slider.  While he is certainly raw at this point – and the Bears perhaps misjudged his ability to handle upper-level minor league ball in 2011 – hopes are high for this kid to make a debut in the big leagues by no later than 2014.

Fun Fact: Pereira insists that ABBA’s “Fernando” be played whenever he walks out of the bullpen to close out a game.

Augusto Peralta: On first glance, there was little about this just-turned 23-year-old right-handed starting pitcher’s 2011 that could be called a success.  Specifically, Peralta was shelved for two months due to elbow tendinitis and another two weeks due to back soreness.  However, beyond those setbacks, this Dominican free agent signee is beginning to make a serious case for filling a roll on the Bakersfield staff by the end of 2012, or in 2013 at the latest.  Over nine starts at AA, Peralta put up a more than respectable 4-4 record with a 3.43 ERA, 47:19 K/BB ratio and a 1.17 WHIP.  While Peralta was injured shortly after his promotion to AAA, in three starts he continued his 2:1 K/BB ratio and finished with a sub-3.50 ERA.  However, most intriguing has been Peralta’s development as a pitcher.  He is already sporting a major league-ready fastball, curveball, changeup and splitter, and projects to have outstanding control.  Though he would likely be one of the best fifth starters on just about any starting staff in the PEBA, given Peralta’s intelligence and willingness to accept coaching, Bakersfield expects him to be a mid-rotation starting pitcher in the big leagues by no later than in 2013.

Fun Fact: While shelved due to injuries this year, Peralta rediscovered his love for Dungeons & Dragons, and he is currently a level 7 druid.

Jaime Salinas: Yet another fourth round pick out of high school (this time, it was in 2009), Salinas suffered a huge setback in 2011, tearing his UCL and requiring Tommy John surgery after just seven starts.  But what starts they were for the 20-year-old southpaw!  In a little over a month in AA, Salinas posted a dominant 5-1 record, accompanied by a 1.88 ERA, striking out 40 and walking 18, and a 1.24 WHIP, all while suffering through a .308 BABIP over six starts (five of them quality starts).  The future appeared exceptionally bright for Salinas before tragedy struck.  That said, Salinas has already developed an average-to-plus fastball, cutter, slider and changeup.  At 20, Bakersfield hopes he is young enough to bounce back from surgery and make a push for a sport in the Bears’ starting rotation sometime in 2014.

Fun Fact: Jaime hates his first name and has submitted papers to legally change it to Jamie.

William Ferguson: At just 20 years old, this second round pick in the 2010 draft is at a crossroads: is he going to be a back of the rotation starter, or is he going to be a mainstay for the Bears?  Granted, there is absolutely nothing not to like about his minor league stats.  In his 2011 campaign with the Bears’ Single-A affiliate, he dominated hitters, posting a 3.07 ERA, striking out 120 (while walking 60) and giving up three home runs in 175 plus innings.  However, questions surround Ferguson and just how much room he has to grow.  His slider and changeup, complimented by a weaker fastball (at 90-92 MPH, it could frankly use a little more zip) and knuckle-curve, are already well developed.  However, scouts are beginning to openly wonder whether he’s willing to put in the work to develop the control and movement the front office believes he is capable of.  In any event, after turning in 18 quality starts in 25 games, it’s just possible that Ferguson knows exactly what he is doing.  Should his body develop enough to give him a little more gas on his heater, there’s no reason not to expect him to be major league ready by no later than 2015.

Fun Fact: Ferguson’s mother owns the world’s largest collection of Orville Redenbacher paraphernalia.

Ernesto Escobar: Escobar, a 23-year-old righty starting pitcher, was drafted – to much derision from fellow PEBA owners – in the first round of the 2009 draft.  As of now, the naysayers have been proven right.  Since a dazzling first half of the 2009 season with the Cold Bay Eleven in short season-A, the wheels have fallen off for this once promising pitcher.  Between 2009 and 2011, when Escobar toiled away in Single-A and then AA ball, he has struggled mightily.  To make matters worse, he missed nine weeks in 2010 due to elbow strain, and then another 15 weeks in 2011 because of shoulder inflammation.  While doctors have cleared him to play and say there is no structural damage, every MRI from here on out is going to cause a lot of people to hold their breath.  That said, there is reason for hope.  Escobar has already mastered a fastball, slider and change.  Scouts are convinced they are developed enough right now to be above average for the major league level, so there is no doubt he has the physical tools to thrive when healthy.  However, he has only had 23 starts in the last two years to learn how to pitch, and his development has suffered as a result.  All is not lost, though.  After returning from an injury that claimed the majority of 2011, Escobar put together a very respectable August.  Though Escobar’s future is far from certain, a strong 2012 could find him in AAA before the season is through, and lead him to spot in the majors by no later 2014.

Fun Fact: Escobar has memorized the shoe size of every single teammate he has played with dating back to 1998.