Desert Hills Minor Leagues: AA Great Northern League
Part of a 4-part series in conjunction with beat writers around the PEBA
By Francis Ferry, NLN Beat Writer
May 30, 2011

As we prepare for the 2011 First-Year Player Draft, I want to take a look at Aurora’s divisional competition’s minor leagues: their strengths and weakness, and what the Desert Hills might look like in 2014 and beyond.

For starters, let’s look at where the six Great Northern League AA teams of the Desert Hills Division stand as we approach draft day (parent organization – AA team, standing in division, GB, record; all teams belong to the Canadian Alliance):

As of May 30:
Aurora: Gatineau – 2^nd Quebec, 4 GB, 31-21
Palm Springs: Edmonton – 1^st Alberta, – GB, 30-22
Tempe: Quebec City – 3^rd Quebec, 4 GB, 31-21
Bakersfield: Sherwood Park – 2^nd Alberta, 8 GB, 22-30
Reno: Red Deer – 3^rd Alberta, 10 GB, 20-32
Yuma: Calgary – 4^th Alberta, 15 GB, 15-37

What one notices right away is that the standings in the Canadian Alliance of the Great Northern League (AA) mirror that of the Desert Hills.  The three best teams (Gatineau, Edmonton and Quebec City) belong to the top three Desert Hills clubs (Aurora, Palm Springs and Tempe), with the other three teams (Sherwood Park, Red Deer and Calgary) placing in the same places as their parents.  On the surface, this does not bode well for the futures of Yuma, Reno and Bakersfield.

Now let us look solely at statistics – who are the current batting leaders in the CA from the Desert Hills organizations?

Batting Average: Nick Harris, GAT, .359 – Brian Cummings, QC, .335
Slugging Percentage: Adan Sobral, EDM –.520, N. Harris, GAT, .518
OPS: N. Harris, GAT, .962 – A. Sobral, EDM, .910
Hits: Denny Parkinson, CAL, 64
Home Runs: A. Sobrel, EDM, 8 – Josh Wetmore, CAL, 8
RBI: Lou Powell, RD, 36 – A. Sobral, EDM, 35
Steals: N. Harris, GAT, 15
VORP: N. Harris, GAT, 29.6 – A.  Sobral, EDM, 21.5

Offensively, two names quickly jump out as names in the top 5 of those major categories – Nick Harris of Gatineau (Aurora) and Adan Sobral of Edmonton (Palm Springs).  At 25, Harris’s timing may just work out as the large payroll Borealis see numerous contract decisions coming due in the next two seasons.  Should players like Salvador Bernal, Steve Williamson and Aaron Turner depart Colorado, Harris may be a natural fit.  Sobral, 30, is three years the senior to incumbent Codgers 1B Ken Krause.  Krause, a 44^th round Inaugural Draft pick by the Nutmeggers, has bounced around the minors before opening the season in West Virginia, ultimately being waived and claimed by Palm Springs.  Krause has potential and may just be beginning to show it.  Being a career .266 hitter does not suggest Sobral will supplant Krause, and with nearly as many strikeouts in his career as hits, the label “career minor leaguer” seems to fit well.

What about on the mound?

ERA: Jaime Salinas, SP, 1.83 – Juan Olivares, QC, 1.86
Wins: J. Olivares, QC, 7 – Sixto Rodríguez, GAT, 7
Saves: Santiago Anaya, EDM, 14 – Chris Cochran, QC, 11
K/IP: Edén Castro, GAT, 9.8 – Jesse Hamilton, EDM, 9.3
BB/IP: Larry Wise, QC, 0.8 – Raúl Martínez, EDM, 1.6
OAVG: J. Olivares, QC, .196 – Joaquín Aguilera, SP, .198
WHIP: J. Olivares, QC, 0.92
VORP: J. Olivares, QC, 24.8

From the pitching perspective, only one name jumps out immediately: Juan Olivares of Quebec City (Tempe).  This veteran of the Puerto Rican Winter League appears to be in total control at AA, but at 30 years of age one questions if he has the longevity to leap to the Majors and help Markus Hancock out in Tempe.  What makes Juan an intriguing prospect (if, at 30, you can call him such) is that his numbers so far are vastly improved over those of his WL experience.  With his next start he should throw the most innings of his professional career, and yet his averages in Winter Ball are (with current figures in parenthesis): 76 H (53), 44 R (17), 41 BB (18) and 36 K (49).  Clearly something has clicked.  What was the biggest concern is currently a non-issue: Control.  Maybe help is on the way, Markus.

So let’s look at each team’s future stars:

The catching position for Calgary reminds me of an old Beatles tune: Help! Both O’Quinn and Ellison are hitting below .150, although O’Quinn hit .311 at SS-A last year and, at age 23, still may show some life.  Perhaps the most solid hitter at AA for Yuma is 1B Denny Parkinson.  Denny has already shown a propensity for the extra base hit (41 & 50 doubles each of the past two seasons, 24 already this year).  If his powerful swing improves with his ability to make contact, then Yuma has a first baseman for years to come and someone to challenge Carlos Guerera.  Perhaps Yuma’s second best prospect is 2B Pedro Maldanoda, or as they call him around Calgary, “Duck”.  He’s a young 21 with a world of potential to be met, but with a knack for putting the ball in play, hitting the gaps and his great speed, he just might be a future #2 hitter for the Bulldozers.

Pitching is not Yuma’s strong suit at AA Calgary.  The short-handed staff struggles with its command, posting more walks than strikeouts and a WHIP over 1.50.  Let’s just say there is no major league help here any time soon.

Prognosis: Parkinson, at age 21, should be helping Yuma next year or in 2013.  Should he find the power stroke, he could make a big difference, but otherwise, if help is in this organization, it is at other levels.

At 23, Lou Powell may nearly be ready for active duty.  With a batting average of .294 and an impressive SLG of .515, Lou is just coming into his own.  He won’t let anyone mistake him for a rabbit, but with improved contact and power he may just find himself in the 5-hole in Reno someday.  Vicente Alvarado is an interesting case.  This outfielder is solid, if not spectacular, in the outfield and runs like the wind, but scouts think he may be as good as he’ll get.  That may be bad news, but then again he has hit at all levels, so although he may not be a .310 hitting stud, he may be a very useful, serviceable 3^rd or 4^th OF, hitting you .270 or .280.  Lastly, Britt Foster has been a career .326 at AA with 49 steals in 60 attempts.  He has also had time at AAA and has hit well at .278.  He’s Reno’s best OF choice at Red Deer.

Reno’s best pitching prospect at AA is closer Kevin Mack.  Featuring a fastball that tops out at 89 and a sinker, he seems to manage against minor leaguers, averaging a strikeout an inning.  He is young and there is hope that he will show improved control over the next two years.  He will need to pitch as he did the previous two years to move into the majors as more than a 3^rd MR.

Prognosis: Like Yuma, there is not a lot here to get excited about.  Powell could mature into a monster, but I think he’ll be a step or two below that.

If you are looking for pitching in the bottom portions of the Canadian Alliance, look no further.  Bakersfield’s AA affiliate in Sherwood Park has a bevy of arms at AA with ERAs below 3, beginning with the 23-year-old Cuban Joaquín Aguilera, who is already sporting a dominant fastball and a workman-like curve.  If he gets control of his changeup this will be a solid major league closer.  With a 2.77 ERA, a 2:1 K:BB ratio and a .198 OAVG, Joaquín should have a decent career.  Pitchers Ralph Crawford, Dennis Lewis and Xue-qin Li are all very similar pitchers in ability, throwing a variety bag of pitches and seemingly getting it done.  Raúl Fernández is another pitcher in the bullpen who may make the big leagues.  At 23, he already has a monster curve and a sneaky fastball, but he needs to learn to control them better to help Bakersfield down the line.  We haven’t even mentioned Jaime Salinas, who in a season and a half gone from high school to AA.  Keeping the ball in the park has been a major part of his success; he’s given up only 4 HR in over 250 minor league innings.  Unfortunately, his season – and maybe his career – is over, hinging on upcoming Tommy John surgery.  He is expected back late next summer.

Bakersfield already has a strong staff (3^rd in the SL in ERA and OAVG), so what they need to help out Pat Lilly and make the next step is hitting, and that probably isn’t coming from this club.  Injured Dwayne Jordan may be one of the better catching prospects at AA, where he’s hitting .333 after hitting for the same average at A-ball last year.  Jordan is a strong defensive catcher with some power (.437 SLG in 2011).  Whether he’s starting catcher material in the majors is to be determined.  RF John Lee is another possible future MLer.  He has the potential to drive the ball to all fields, but for him to progress out of AA he has to improve his contact.  That begins with getting a better grasp of the strike zone.

Prognosis: Look for Bakersfield to deal from strength and attempt to improve the offense by dealing some arms.  5 games in back of Tempe and 8.5 behind Palm Springs is not too far with 2/3^rd of the season left.  I expect the Bears to make a move.

Tempe has some potential youngsters at AA Quebec City.  CF Tomás Gonzáles is making the jump from SS-A, where he hit .294 and .312 the past two seasons.  He is at .274 so far in 2011.  Tomás has great speed and is 7-for-8 in steals so far, and if he can improve his OBP he could be a threat at the ML level.  2B Brian Cummings has spent time at both AA and AAA this season.  A .335 in 182 AA AB translated to a .125 in 32 AAA AB.  With 25% of his hits with the Frenchies being of the extra base variety, we can expect this gap-to-gap hitter to roll up more extra base hits with improved contact.  Unfortunately, Brian doesn’t have the best concept of the strike zone, so it may be iffy if he makes an impact with Tempe.  Perhaps their best option offensively will be slick-fielding, speedy 1B Carlos Miranda.  After hitting .254 in his first taste of pro ball last summer, Carlos is only hitting .204 in stints between A-ball and AA.  At 22 years old, Tempe is hoping this guy can reach his potential sooner rather than later.  If he is slow to develop, he may not last in a system looking to make a serious push over the next two years.

On the mound, Tempe has a handful of young arms that may make a difference, starting with the man in the closer’s position, Chris Cochran.  He’s an atypical closer with an underwhelming fastball but a wide array of pitches that help him get the job done.  With 11 saves in 18 games and a 1.19 ERA, this former 60^th round Inaugural Draft pick and Connecticut farmhand who was acquired from San Antonio may be making strides after playing at three levels last season.  Reliever Jorge Hernández didn’t have the best looking numbers coming out of college, but since he began pro ball he has a 1.32 ERA.  He throws a fastball and a slider equally well, and improved control will make a world of difference for this 22-year-old.  Darryl “Quagmire” Lewis is a starter we like if he continues to improve.  A devastating fastball (if he can gain control) complements a decent curve and change that he’s working on.  Some scouts think he may be close.  With the strong starting rotation that Tempe has put together, there is time for Quagmire to develop.  Aside from the aforementioned Olivares, Tim McGowan is another young pitcher who, given time, may bloom.  A wide number of pitches – none spectacular, but all thrown well – has Tim with 64 K in 76 IP and a respectable 1.17 WHIP.

Prognosis: Tempe has made recent moves to both challenge for the Rodriguez Cup this season and in the future.  There are some pieces here that may be nice compliments to a bigger plan.  The biggest question may be what they do with Olivares; will he make the ML roster before season’s end?

The Mall Ratz are leading the Alberta Division and Adan Sobral is the main reason, but he is not alone.  OF Todd Brooks hit .314 last year at A-ball and is hitting .298 so far at Edmonton.  After 22 2B and 15 HR last year (in 442 AB), he has 13 & 5 in 191 AA AB. If Brooks can cut the strikeouts down (90 last year, 39 already this season), he might be an impact player for the Codgers.  Perhaps their most promising (yet most disappointing) prospect is the former Reno 18^th round Inaugural Draft pick Mario Salinas.  After hitting .284 at AA Red Deer before being dealt to Palm Springs, Mario hit .248 last year and currently sits at .267.  Salinas has promising power, yet has only hit 11 total HR in the past two and a half seasons.  With good speed and a decent SLG of .440 (despite the lack of HR), there is still hope for this 25-year-old infielder.

Perhaps Palm Springs best pitching prospect is no longer a prospect.  30-year-old Jesse Hamilton was a 67^th round draftee in the Inaugural Draft who has spent his entire career at AA.  A career ERA of 3.21 with 523 K in 511 IP with a respectable 1.28 WHIP and .223 OAVG, it is a mystery why this guy has not progressed beyond AA.  As a matter of fact, the entire Edmonton staff began their career with Palm Springs and most have been in Edmonton three years now, some the past four.  With the home-grown makeup of the staff at AAA Provo, and that staff being perhaps the 5^th best in the Rocky Mountain League, there doesn’t appear to be much movement here, especially with the ML staff considered one of the top in the Sovereign League.

Prognosis: Some decent parts here, many of which look to either die in the Codgers farm system or maybe find successes elsewhere.  If the Codgers sign their ML free agents over the next two years, I would think the latter is what will happen.

Like Palm Springs, the fate for the players at AA Gatineau will depend on the future contract decisions made by parent club Aurora.  Aside from Nick Harris, the Balloonists OF has many options.  Michael Burton, who hit .400 in 30 games at A-ball last season, is hitting .300 at AA this year.  A speedy, sure-handed outfielder who puts the ball in play, he looks to have a potential future in Aurora, as does Nick Harris, the original San Antonio 5^th round pick in 2007.  Ronald Elmore and Emerson Freeman, who spent the first part of 2011 in A-ball, are similarly quick and steady in the field, and likely to put the ball in play.  Taiwanese prospect En-guo Guao is another member of a strong outfield corps that fits the Borealis mould: Speedy.  He is probably a couple more years away before he makes an impact at Aurora.

Perhaps the pitcher with the greatest potential is closer Pat MacComie.  A strong fastball/slider pitcher, Pat has bounced around SS-A, A, AA, and even had a try out at AAA Thornton this year (with poor results).  It will take a little more seasoning before Pat makes a difference.  The starter with the best chances of making it to the big leagues may be Tony Gordon.  Possessing a devastating fastball and a curve that just gets better, the only thing keeping him down is conditioning.  Tony has only one problem; solid pitching at AAA, and even more solid pitching in Aurora.

Prognosis: Any player at Gatineau has a tough uphill battle to make it to the big leagues with Aurora.  With the Borealis mostly a young team and strong players at AAA Thornton, it’ll be interesting what happens to this group.