Sunday, July 19, 2009

Here is a look at the mid season progress of Baseball America's (BA) top ten rated prospects in all of the PEBA.  BA looks at prospects in a more traditional sense of evaluation rather than pure statistical analysis-based models.  The key items to remember are to look at age of the prospect in relation to their current level and how each player’s statistics compare to the league average.  The last point is of consequence due to the variance between the leagues.  For example, the average OPS for the Sovereign League of PEBA is .732, while in the American Alliance of the Great Northern League (AA) the average OPS is .673.  The balance continues to favor pitching throughout all of the leagues, but is more prevalent in the minors.

What will follow will be an analysis of the top five players according to BA (part 2 will have the remaining 6-10 players).  Age, level, height and weight will be listed first, followed by AB, Avg./OBP/SLG, OPS, lgOPS, VORP, any relevant offensive stats (SB/CS for speedsters, BB/K, etc.) and defensive range factors for offensive players.  Age, level, height, weight and MPH for pitchers, followed by IP, ERA, lgERA, K/9, BB/9 and GB%.  A synopsis of their progress highlighting strengths and weaknesses of each player with attention paid to what the player will need to do to continue his progress into success at the ML level.

1.  3B Ken Keddy – Fargo Dinosaurs

18, A-ball, 6'4”, 200 lbs., RH

235 AB, .230/.485/.306, .791 OPS, .729 lgOPS, 16.4 VORP, 111/33 BB/K ratio, 2.98 RF at 3B

Keddy's walk to strikeout ratio is unheard of.  It’s amazing that he hasn't been able to do more with the balls put in play considering his ability to almost have a laser eye at detecting balls vs. strikes.  Some bad luck might be expected here, but the lack of power is a little concerning.  He'll have to do better with the pitches he chooses to swing at and put in play, but part of the problem is likely an inability to develop any sort of rhythm when he ends up walking in a third of his plate appearances.  His size and age indicates that the power still may come for this young prospect and when it does, combined with his ability to draw a ton of walks and avoid strikeouts, he'll be strong middle of the order hitter.  The defense has progressed rather well, and at this point there is no reason to think that Keddy can’t remain at 3B defensively.

2.  1B Yong-zhan Hu – Charleston Statesmen

21, ML, 6'0”, 215 lbs., LH

328 AB, .259/.332/.470, .802 OPS, .718 lgOPS, 12.8 VORP, 18 HR, 33/62 BB/K ratio, 8.62 RF at 1B

Hu is a premier prospect, making it to the big leagues by age 21 and posting solid power numbers and a respectable OBP.  The near 1:2 walk to strikeout ratio is perfectly fine, and his defense at the position is solid.  This guy is going to be a perennial HR title favorite by the time he hits his prime.  You have to strain to find anything negative in his performance thus far; at most you can say that he struggles a bit vs. LHP (.738 OPS), but this is still relatively good.  The defense is good and the physical makeup fits the profile of a solid hitter.  Obviously he is the best bet to have success going forward.

3.   LF Luis Torres – Florida Featherheads

19, SSA-ball, 5'9”, 185 lbs., LH

100 AB, .210/.451/.270, .721 OPS, .675 lgOPS, 3.7 VORP, 43/16 BB/K ratio, 2.05 RF at LF

Torres, much like Ken Keddy, is demonstrating an amazing walk to strikeout ratio, albeit a year older and a level lower.  Also like Keddy, he hasn't put up the power numbers nor contact rate expected of him, but he is young for the league (although the lowest level, it is still populated with many college draftees between the ages of 21-23).  His defense in LF is good thus far, and it looks as though he can remain at the position (at this point, at least).  Size might be one area of concern; he will likely be more of top of the order hitter – think high OBP with good contact skills and plenty of doubles but few SB, 15-20 HR with an outside shot at 25 HR power.  It’s still quite early to draw many conclusions and, because of the few at-bats and the fact he’s yet to make his debut in A-ball, caution should be taken in this evaluation of Torres.  After a full year in A-ball (or higher) we'll have a better idea of what kind of player Torres will turn into.

4.  CF Jorge Guavara – West Virginia Coal Sox

20, AA-ball, 6'0”, 200 lbs., RH

337 AB, .267/.307/.445, .752 OPS, .673 lgOPS, 22.0 VORP, 15/61 BB/K ratio, 21 SB, 77.8 SB%, 3.13 RF at CF

Guavara is having an excellent year in AA.  He represents the first of these top ten players to play a skill defensive position, and he plays it very well (as noted by his strong range factor in CF).  The speed is real and, just as important, his ability to pick and choose when to risk stealing a base is a strength for such a young player.  Contact skills are strong and Guavara shows excellent doubles/gap power.  His frame may allow him to develop into a true 5-tool player, as hitting for power is not out of the question.  He is not without holes in his game, though, as his BB/K ratio indicates.  He has struggled to draw walks and consequently doesn't have the OBP skills that translate into a top of the order hitter, which would be a shame considering his excellent SB skills and good contact hitting.  If he can improve his walk rate to a respectable level, he can be a perennial All-Star in the league.

5.  1B Jamie Boyd – Kentucky Thoroughbreds

21, AAA-ball, 6'3”, 225 lbs., LH

275 AB, .229/.407/.345, .753 OPS, .712 lgOPS, 14.6 VORP, 84/55 BB/K ratio, 12 SB, 85.7 SB%, 8.62 RF at 1B

Boyd is a big, strong ox of a man.  Profiles as a 1B, can field the position just fine despite his big size and projects to hit for power.  Not sure how long he can be expected to be a stolen base threat as he continues to fill out into his mid twenties; he will probably be able to steal around 10 or so bases a season when it’s all said and done.  He is demonstrating an excellent batting eye at the AAA level and, like all of the players discussed thus far, he is doing it young for his level.  He may struggle with contact hitting and will certainly lose value if he doesn't start hitting the ball out of the park.  A promotion to the bigs will probably wait until he starts showing some ability to hit the ball over the fence, but OBP skills might carry him there anyways.  He has suffered a couple nagging injuries this season (bruised heel, concussion) but nothing too concerning.  It will be interesting to see what Kentucky decides to do with him for next season if he sits at the current level of development.

Expect part 2 of this report in a day or so.

–Steve Youngblood, Fargo Gazette