ABP: Pan-Atlantic First Look
By Jonas McPhee, American Baseball Perspective
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Pan-Atlantic
Key departures: OF Larry Hoskins
Key Arrivals: DH Andrés López
Roster Movement Analysis: Arlington hopes that López will be an upgrade at DH, especially in terms of power. For the rest of the lineup the cliché seems to be true: “If it ain’t broke then don’t fix it.” The early look at Arlington’s lineup features only two changes from last year.
2009 Outlook: 94 – 68, First Place
Analysis: Pitching is definitely Arlington’s strength and they posted the fourth best starter earned run average and the second best bullpen earned run average. They look to switch up the starting rotation a bit by giving Tomás “Chief” Yánez more starts. The key for Arlington to return to the playoffs again is for Matos, Workman and Bender to be consistently dominant and for the bullpen to maintain their level of performance. The team’s offense hopes to continue to work on the premise that the whole is more than the sum of its parts. They have hitters that hit for a decent average and they have hitters who can hit 15-20 dingers but no real superstar. Case in point: 3B Kiril Nijenboer is batting cleanup. The offense finished 8th in a majority of categories and the team didn’t land a big bat to supplement the offense. Granted, Andrés López will probably hit with more power than Hoskins, and Carillo is a much better option than Jesús Suárez, but it remains to be seen if it will be enough to push Arlington further into the playoffs. Arlington will live and die by their pitching and against the other elite teams of the Imperial League will cross their fingers that they will have just enough offense to get by.
Offensive MVP: Cipriano López has a year closer to his 2007 production and leads the team in hits and runs batted in
Pitching MVP: Workman, a year older and wiser, puts in another Golden Arm-caliber year
Key departures: 1B Dave Ross, RF Bernardo Marín
Key Arrivals: RF José Cortéz, SP Tim Higgins, 1B Michizane Kouki, SP Adrián Reséndez (AAA)
Roster Movement Analysis: Connecticut upgrades at 1B and RF and saves some money. Higgins has been a disappointment at every stop and Adrián Reséndez is an unknown who may or not be ready for the big show. GM Patrick Reust, who tabs Reséndez as a key to future Nutmegger success, said, “Whether his promotion to Connecticut was premature or not is debatable. He has shown some great potential to be a clubhouse leader as well as a top of the rotation starter.”
2009 Outlook: 75-87, Fourth Place
Analysis: The Nutmeggers are a few years away from contention but have put together a strong foundation that should allow them to win 10-15 more games. RF José Cortéz is a proven young superstar and his bat alone will carry the team at times. However, they need a few players (Taylor, John, Lara) to step up and be base runners to keep teams from simply walking Cortéz. If 3B Miguel Lluea gets hot, expect Cortéz to see more hittable pitches. Their Achilles’ heel will be pitching; they finished 12th in the majority of categories last year, and they have a young staff this year that will probably take its lumps and experience highs and lows. Jason Oliver has been a rock for the Nutmegger rotation, and many hopes rise and fall on the arm and leadership ability of Reséndez. Higgins struggled with getting right handed batters out, and in a division with righty sluggers like Cal Edwards (NJ) and Gregory Arnold (GLO) this could spell trouble. Reust gives this outlook for the team: “We are hoping for a .500 season, but with such a young staff and injuries being a problem in the past the team is cautiously optimistic about this goal.”
Offensive MVP: José Cortéz in a landslide
Pitching MVP: Jason Oliver, who should have another consistent year and increase his win total due to better run support
Key Departures: RF Vincente Bernal, 3B Biao Jiao, CF Kenny Parker, 2B Scott Veeck
Key Arrivals: RF Gregory Arnold, C Bradley Loyd, 1B António Coronado
Roster Movement Analysis: How do you replace a Royal Raker? Most likely you can’t, but the Fishermen are hoping Gregory Arnold can adjust to Imperial League pitching and shine. Lloyd and Coronado need to have their production add up to fill the hole Bernal is leaving behind.
2009 Outlook: 85 – 77, Third Place
Analysis: Gloucester was a pretty impressive 33-23 in one-run games last season. The Fishermen were average in pitching categories and average in offensive categories, which added up to a great campaign and a race into the playoffs. The team hopes last year’s three-headed monster of Ganey, Torres and Bernal morphs into an even better combination of Ganey, Torres, and Arnold. Arnold should provide more power and less average. Ganey demonstrates the difference a year makes as he emerged out of nowhere to put up some great numbers. Right now there is a surplus of first basemen, though the team hopes that Coronado will perform like the scouts believe he can. If he can’t, expect to see his playing time reduced by either Price or Craig or the moving of Torres to DH and Loyd to catcher. On the pitching side of things the rotation and bullpen remains pretty much the same, hoping for a repeat performance. It will be interesting to see if García has anything left in his 36-year-old arm or if he will be serving batting practice to opposing teams. De Jesús’ best years may also be behind him, and Xian needs to pitch closer to his 2007 form.
Offensive MVP: Gregory Arnold, though he won’t be voted in as the Royal Raker
Pitching MVP: Rob Jones takes to his first full year in the starting role like a fish to water.
Key Departures: LF Daron Little, SP Juan Valdés
Key Arrivals: None
Roster Movement Analysis: Two grumpy old men head to Hollywood to remake the movie. The Underground is banking on promotion and player development instead of bringing in fresh blood.
2009 Outlook: 62-100, tied for Fifth
Analysis: The Underground had a rough go of it last year, though they did enjoy more success in the second half of the season than the first. CF Orlando Germán is one of the best young superstars on the rise and his stock should continue to climb throughout 2009. He is joined by Mario Sánchez as the only other proven hitter on the team. The Underground are waiting on everyone else to live up to their hitting potential. The team struggled offensively last year and by all appearances will suffer through another similar season. London is building a strong foundation but it will be a few more years before their prospects’ abilities will develop well enough to help them compete with larger market teams. London loses a crafty veteran with Valdés’ departure and now will lean even more heavily on Molina to keep the staff respectable. Unfortunately, the time is not now for the pitching staff either and they will struggle as well, especially now that Collins is out for the season. Luis Mora and Rafael Hernández are studs and will be great relievers for a long time, but it just seems like they won’t get the opportunity to close out games like they would on other teams. London’s time is coming; its just not now.
Offensive MVP: Orlando Germán will continue to improve and may make his first All-Star appearance
Pitching MVP: Molina is a bright spot in London’s starting rotation
Key Departures: SP Gary Fisher, MR Orlando Ramos, 2B Mark Gunter, SP Jesús González
Key Arrivals: 3B Michael Kelly, SP Sugimoto Hara, LF Albert Torres, MR Dan Mosley
Roster Movement Analysis: Kelly, Mosley and Hara are instant upgrades while Torres is a wait-and-see guy. Losing Gary Fisher and Jesús González leave gaps in the starting rotation. Most people agree that Gunter has more of a “good riddance” feel to him.
2009 Outlook: 62-100, tied for Fifth
Analysis: The Maulers held onto Cortéz for a short time before sending him on his merry way and saving much needed budget money. Michael Kelly joins the team and receives the dubious distinction of being the only player on the active roster to have played at the PEBA level with an on base percentage higher than .300. Which is another way of saying the Maulers struggled on offense last year and it is doubtful that, even with the addition of a great bat like Kelly, the Maulers will be able to avoid offensive struggles again. Manny Lara and Roberto Muñóz need to take their offensive production to another level in order for Manchester to truly be competitive, which doesn’t seem likely. Manchester struggled just as hard on the pitching side, finding their team near the bottom in every category. 2007 Wunderkind Award-winner Fujita pitches consistently well but will most likely suffer from a lack of run support. Closer Augusto León dominates opposing hitting but will also suffer from the number of victories Manchester is able to put up. Manchester is another one of those teams that is in the position to improve and build from within but the fruition of their drafting and minor league system is still several years away.
Offensive MVP: Michael Kelly will lead Manchester in most offensive categories
Pitching MVP: Fujita will continue to be consistent in his pitching and anchor the staff
Key Departures: RF José Cortéz, SP Rafael Matos, MR Dan Mosley, C Manuel González, SP Luis Peña
Key Arrivals: RF Kenny Parker, CF Yoshino Miyata, RF Daniel Ríos, SP Jesús González, SP Norris Moncreiff
Roster Movement Analysis: The fact that Jesús González was the centerpiece in a trade involving José Cortéz underscores the lack of quality available starting pitching in free agency this year. Ríos comes on as an underachiever and so does Parker, but they are slated to take over for departed underachieving outfielders Jefferson and Palmeiro. Miyata is the real deal in terms of average, but does not hit for power. Manuel González is given the boot after a disappointing 2008 campaign.
2009 Outlook: 90-72, Second Place
Analysis: The Hitmen dominated in offensive categories finding themselves no lower than third in every category. Cruz, Ortega and Edwards are all mashers and should continue to do so this season. Miyata should end up near the top of the league in runs scored as his abilities to hit doubles will put him in scoring position for either Cruz or Edwards to knock in. It will be no surprise if New Jersey is the top offensive team in the Imperial League once again in 2009. The team backs their offensive prowess up with a dominating bullpen that is quite intimidating even with the departure of the “other Mosley”. If the Hitmen have a weakness, it comes from their starting rotation which features a gambit of players from staff ace to pitchers who haven’t lived up to expectations. Holloway was a great pickup for the Hitmen last year as he finished the season 7-1 with a 2.90 earned run average, though he was roughed up a bit in the playoffs. Jesús González had a tremendous season in Manchester and should be a great number 2 or 3 starter for the Hitmen. O’connell has tremendous potential that he hasn’t yet reached; one telling stat is that he gave up 28 long balls last year. If the starting pitching pulls together and is able to match the bullpen’s efficiency, then the Hitmen may very well win over a hundred games. However, it seems more likely they will once again find themselves in a dogfight for first place with the Bureaucrats edging them out this season.
Offensive MVP: Rubén Cruz benefits from Miyata being on base and has another monster year
Pitching MVP: Holloway continues his winning ways in New Jersey